Photovoltaic Industry Weekly Report: Sector Rebounds on Policy Tailwinds and Technological Breakthroughs

Date: November 11, 2025
Source: Market Research Department, Guoxin Securities
Analyst: Zhang Xinyi (S1490522090001)
Rating: Overweight (Sector Outlook: Outperform Market by >5% in next 6 months)

Executive Summary

The Chinese photovoltaic (PV) sector demonstrated robust resilience and strong momentum during the week of November 3–7, 2025. The PV Equipment Index (Shenwan) surged by 6.77%, significantly outperforming the broader CSI 300 Index (+0.82%) and leading the Power Equipment sub-sector. This rally was driven by a confluence of stabilizing supply chain prices, aggressive policy support for large-scale base projects, and a landmark technological breakthrough in perovskite commercialization.

Our analysis indicates that the sector has likely bottomed out following previous corrections. The investment thesis is now pivoting from pure capacity expansion to technological differentiation and policy-driven demand visibility. Key catalysts include the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" provincial wind and solar base planning in Shanxi, national guidelines promoting coal-PV integration, and the release of the world’s largest commercial perovskite module by Microquanta Semiconductor.

We maintain an Overweight rating on the PV sector. Investors are advised to focus on companies with high proportions of N-type product output and those leading in next-generation technologies such as perovskite. While price stability across the main supply chain suggests a halt in the destructive price wars of the past cycle, risks related to raw material volatility, project execution delays, and intensifying trade friction remain pertinent.

Key Takeaways

1. Market Performance: PV Leads Power Equipment Rally

The week witnessed a broad-based recovery in the power equipment sector, with PV emerging as the primary driver.

• Broad Market Context: The CSI 300 Index rose by 0.82%. Among the 31 Shenwan industry indices, 19 recorded gains.
• Sector Leadership: The Power Equipment (Shenwan) Index jumped 4.98%, ranking first among all industries and outperforming the benchmark by 4.16 percentage points (pct).
• Sub-Sector Divergence: Within Power Equipment, performance was mixed but predominantly positive:
  • PV Equipment: +6.77% (Top performer).
  • Grid Equipment: +12.46% (Note: High volatility/strong rebound).
  • Other Power Equipment II: +6.06%.
  • Battery (Shenwan): +2.08%.
  • Wind Power Equipment: +0.51%.
  • Electric Motors II: -2.07% (The only declining sub-sector).

Top Performing Stocks (PV Equipment):
Investors rotated into names with strong fundamentals and technological moats. The top gainers included:
1. Canadian Solar (阿特斯)
2. Deye Shares (德业股份)
3. Risen Energy (东方日升)
4. EGing Photovoltaic (亿晶光电)
5. Hongyuan Green Energy (弘元绿能)

Laggards:
Conversely, stocks facing specific operational or margin pressures declined, including Jinbo Shares, Polymer Materials, DKEM, and Gaoce Shares.

Analyst Note: The outperformance of PV over Wind and Batteries suggests a market preference for sectors where supply-side clearing is more advanced and where immediate policy catalysts (such as the "15th Five-Year Plan" preparations) are more tangible.

2. Supply Chain Price Analysis: Stabilization Signals Bottoming

Data from Datayes as of November 5, 2025, indicates that the severe price erosion characterizing the previous 18 months has largely stabilized. This price floor is critical for restoring manufacturer margins and encouraging downstream installation demand.

Interpretation:
The stabilization of polysilicon and cell prices, coupled with a marginal uptick in module prices, suggests that the industry is transitioning from a "price war" phase to a "quality and efficiency" competition phase. The flat-to-positive trend in module pricing is particularly bullish for integrated manufacturers who can now better predict revenue streams.

3. Policy Catalysts: Strategic Expansion of Large-Scale Bases

Two major policy developments this week underscore the government's commitment to accelerating renewable energy deployment, specifically targeting large-scale bases and integrated resource utilization.

A. Shanxi Province Launches "15th Five-Year Plan" Wind/Solar Base Planning

On October 27, the Shanxi Provincial Energy Bureau issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Planning of Provincial Wind and Solar Bases for the 15th Five-Year Plan."

• Objective: To plan and declare a batch of provincial-level wind and solar large bases.
• Planning Principles:
  • Integration: Cities must coordinate resource endowments, land use planning, grid architecture, and consumption capacity.
  • Scale: Individual base projects must be no smaller than 500 MW (0.5 GW).
  • Consolidation: Investment entities should be relatively concentrated to ensure stability and comprehensive development benefits.
  • Flexibility: Projects can be planned at the county level or integrated across neighboring counties for optimized layout.
• Timeline: Preliminary planning layouts must be submitted to the Provincial Energy Bureau by November 30, 2025.

Investment Implication: This marks the early start of the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) preparation. The requirement for large-scale, consolidated projects favors leading developers and EPC contractors with strong balance sheets and grid connection capabilities. It signals sustained demand visibility beyond 2025.

B. National Energy Administration (NEA) Promotes Coal-PV Integration

The NEA recently released the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Development of Coal and New Energy."

• Strategic Goal: By the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," the integration model will be mature, with significantly higher penetration of new energy in coal mining areas.
• Key Directives:
  1. Land Utilization: Activate idle land in mining areas, including subsidence areas, industrial plazas, waste dumps, and reclaimed land.
  2. Large Bases: Encourage the construction of large-scale PV bases in coal-producing regions with contiguous land and good grid access.
  3. "PV+" Models: Support integrated applications such as:
     • PV + Agriculture/Forestry in reclaimed areas.
     • Floating PV + Aquaculture in water-filled subsidence areas.
  4. Wind Development: Orderly development of centralized and distributed wind power in resource-rich mining areas.

Investment Implication: This policy unlocks vast tracts of previously underutilized land resources. It creates a specific niche for companies specializing in complex terrain engineering, floating PV solutions, and ecological restoration-integrated PV projects. It also supports the "Green Transformation" narrative for traditional energy companies, potentially attracting ESG-focused capital.

4. Technological Breakthrough: Perovskite Commercialization Milestone

On November 3, Microquanta Semiconductor (纤纳光电) officially released the world’s largest commercial perovskite PV module, marking a pivotal moment for next-generation PV technology.

• Product Specifications:
  • Dimensions: $2400 \text{ mm} \times 1200 \text{ mm}$ ($2.88 \text{ m}^2$).
  • Power Output: 509.21 W.
  • Efficiency: 18.60%.
• Certification: Certified by TÜV SÜD, a globally recognized authority.
• Significance:
  1. Scale-Up Success: The module is several times larger than earlier $0.79 \text{ m}^2$ prototypes.
  2. Stability Parity: Testing shows that the stability of the large-format module is comparable to smaller units, proving that reliability issues associated with scaling up perovskite have been addressed.
  3. Commercial Readiness: The achievement indicates that perovskite technology is moving from the laboratory/pilot stage to mass commercial application.

Investment Implication: This breakthrough validates the commercial viability of perovskite tandems and single-junction modules. It accelerates the timeline for perovskite adoption. Investors should closely monitor companies with leading R&D in perovskite materials, encapsulation technologies, and laser patterning equipment, as these will be the primary beneficiaries of the next technology cycle.

Investment Logic & Strategy

Based on the current market dynamics, policy tailwinds, and technological progress, we articulate the following core investment logic:

1. Sector Bottoming and Valuation Repair

The PV sector has undergone a prolonged correction, digesting excess capacity and margin compression. The recent stabilization of supply chain prices (particularly the slight rise in module prices) and the strong market performance (+6.77% weekly gain) suggest that the sector has entered a bottom区间 (bottom range). Valuations for many leading firms are at historical lows, offering an attractive risk-reward ratio for long-term investors.

2. Differentiation via N-Type Technology

As the industry transitions from P-type (PERC) to N-type (TOPCon, HJT, BC) technologies, companies with higher proportions of N-type production will enjoy superior margins and market share. N-type modules offer higher efficiency and lower degradation, aligning with the market's increasing focus on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) rather than just upfront capex.
* Focus: Identify manufacturers with high N-type shipment ratios and robust proprietary technology platforms.

3. Next-Gen Tech: The Perovskite Alpha

The successful commercialization of large-scale perovskite modules by Microquanta serves as a proof-of-concept for the entire industry. While crystalline silicon remains dominant, perovskite represents the next frontier for efficiency gains (>30% in tandem cells).
* Focus: Companies with early-mover advantages in perovskite IP, equipment suppliers enabling perovskite manufacturing, and established players actively integrating perovskite into their R&D pipelines.

4. Policy-Driven Demand Visibility

The Shanxi "15th Five-Year Plan" initiation and the NEA's coal-PV integration guidelines provide concrete demand visibility for 2026-2030. These policies favor:
* Large-Scale Developers: Capable of executing 500MW+ projects.
* Integrated Service Providers: Offering EPC, O&M, and ecological restoration services for mining area projects.
* Grid-Interactive Assets: Companies involved in energy storage and grid stabilization, as large bases require enhanced grid flexibility.

Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook is positive, institutional investors must remain cognizant of the following risks:

1. Raw Material Price Volatility

Although prices are currently stable, the PV supply chain remains sensitive to fluctuations in polysilicon, silver, and aluminum prices. Unexpected spikes in input costs could squeeze margins, particularly for manufacturers without long-term supply contracts or vertical integration.
* Monitor: Polysilicon production restarts and industrial metal futures.

2. Project Execution and Grid Connection Delays

The ambitious targets set by provincial plans (e.g., Shanxi) and national guidelines rely on timely grid infrastructure upgrades. If grid connection approvals lag behind project completion, or if local consumption capacity is insufficient, it could lead to curtailment issues and delayed revenue recognition for developers.
* Monitor: Grid investment announcements and regional curtailment rates.

3. Intensifying Trade Friction

The global PV market remains fragmented by trade barriers. Escalating tariffs or non-tariff barriers in key markets (such as the US, EU, or India) could disrupt export channels for Chinese manufacturers. Given that many leading Chinese PV firms have significant overseas exposure, geopolitical tensions remain a persistent overhang.
* Monitor: Trade policy announcements from major import markets and company-specific localization strategies (e.g., building factories in Southeast Asia, Middle East, or US).

4. Technology Iteration Risk

The rapid shift towards N-type and the emerging promise of perovskite create a risk of stranded assets for companies heavily invested in older P-type technologies. Failure to keep pace with technological upgrades could result in loss of competitiveness and asset write-downs.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Rating: Overweight (看好)

• Definition: We expect the industry index to outperform the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next 6 months.
• Rationale:
  1. Valuation Support: The sector is trading at attractive valuations relative to its long-term growth potential.
  2. Policy Put: Strong government support for large-scale bases and green transition provides a floor for demand.
  3. Technological Catalysts: Breakthroughs in perovskite and the mainstreaming of N-type tech offer avenues for margin expansion and market share gains for leaders.
  4. Price Stabilization: The halt in price declines improves earnings visibility for Q4 2025 and FY2026.

Recommended Themes:
1. N-Type Leaders: Companies with dominant market share in TOPCon/HJT/BC modules.
2. Perovskite Pioneers: Firms with verified commercial prototypes and scalable manufacturing processes.
3. Integrated Developers: Entities capable of leveraging policy incentives in coal-PV integration projects.

Investment View

Strategic Allocation Recommendation

For institutional portfolios, we recommend a tactical overweight position in the PV sector, shifting from a defensive stance to a more constructive one. The combination of policy clarity and technological maturation provides a dual engine for growth.

1. Core Holdings: High-Quality N-Type Manufacturers

Investors should prioritize companies that have successfully navigated the technology transition. Look for firms with:
* High N-type Shipment Ratio: Ensuring premium pricing and better bankability.
* Vertical Integration: Controlling costs from silicon wafer to module.
* Strong Balance Sheets: Ability to fund R&D and capacity upgrades without excessive leverage.
* Specific Attention: Based on weekly performance, Canadian Solar and Risen Energy have shown strong market confidence. Deye Shares remains a key player in the inverter/storage integration space, which complements PV base development.

2. Satellite Positions: Perovskite and Equipment Innovators

Allocate a smaller portion of the portfolio to high-growth, high-risk opportunities in next-gen tech.
* Microquanta Semiconductor (Private/Pre-IPO watchlist): As the leader in the recent breakthrough, its future public listing or partnerships will be key catalysts.
* Equipment Suppliers: Companies providing laser processing, coating, and encapsulation equipment for perovskite lines will see early revenue growth before module makers fully scale.
* Specific Attention: Monitor listed equipment vendors who have announced collaborations with perovskite leaders.

3. Policy Beneficiaries: EPC and Regional Developers

With the launch of the Shanxi planning and national coal-PV guidelines, companies with strong presence in Northern and Western China, and expertise in complex terrain EPC, are well-positioned.
* Focus: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) or large private developers with existing relationships in coal-mining regions.

Conclusion

The week of November 3-7, 2025, marked a potential inflection point for the Chinese PV industry. The convergence of price stabilization, policy acceleration (Shanxi 15th FYP, Coal-PV integration), and technological validation (Perovskite commercialization) creates a compelling investment case.

While risks such as trade friction and execution delays persist, the downside appears limited given the current valuation levels. The market is rewarding quality, technological leadership, and policy alignment. We advise investors to accumulate positions in leading N-type manufacturers and keep a close watch on the commercial rollout of perovskite technology, which promises to redefine the industry's efficiency ceiling in the coming decade.

Appendix: Data Sources & Methodology

• Market Data: Source: WIND, Shenwan Macro Research. Indices referenced are Shenwan Industry Indices.
• Price Data: Source: Datayes, Solarzoom. Prices are average transaction prices as of November 5, 2025.
• Policy Documents: Shanxi Provincial Energy Bureau Notice (Oct 27, 2025); National Energy Administration Guiding Opinions (Nov 2025).
• Corporate Announcements: Microquanta Semiconductor Press Release (Nov 3, 2025).

Disclaimer

This report is prepared by Zhang Xinyi, a registered securities analyst with the Securities Association of China. The views expressed are independent and objective. Guoxin Securities Co., Ltd. holds the necessary qualifications for securities investment consulting.

• Conflict of Interest: Guoxin Securities' asset management, proprietary trading, or other departments may hold positions or make investment decisions inconsistent with this report. The company may have investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned.
• No Guarantee: While information is sourced from reliable public data, Guoxin Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
• Not Personal Advice: This report is for institutional reference only and does not constitute a personal recommendation. Investors should conduct their own due diligence.

Contact:
Guoxin Securities Market Research Department
Address: 11th Floor, PICC Life Insurance Building, No. 18 Chaoyangmen North Street, Beijing, 100020
Email: zhangxinyi1@crsec.com.cn