Power Equipment & New Energy: The Rise of Commercial Spaceflight – Spotlight on Lightweight, High-Efficiency Space Photovoltaics

Date: January 7, 2026
Sector: Power Equipment & New Energy
Rating: Outperform (Maintained)
Analysts: Zhao Hui He, Tao Zhou

Executive Summary

The convergence of commercial spaceflight expansion and the emergence of "space computing" is catalyzing a structural shift in the demand for space-based energy solutions. Historically dominated by Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) multi-junction cells, the space photovoltaic (PV) market is now witnessing a technological inflection point driven by the need for lightweight, flexible, and cost-effective power sources. This report analyzes the transition from traditional rigid PV technologies to next-generation solutions, specifically P-type Ultra-Thin Heterojunction (HJT) silicon cells and Perovskite solar cells.

Recent developments underscore this trend:
1. Technological Breakthroughs: Risen Energy has confirmed the delivery of P-type ultra-thin HJT batteries with thicknesses of 50-70μm, significantly reducing launch mass and enabling flexible array structures.
2. Strategic Partnerships: Huatu Aerospace and Zhongneng Energy Storage have established a joint venture, "Hangtian Chaoneng," to accelerate the deployment of flexible perovskite technology for space computing and energy applications.
3. Market Catalysts: The launch of the world’s first space computing constellation by China in May 2025, coupled with SpaceX’s integration of NVIDIA H100 GPUs into orbit and Beijing’s strategic plan for gigawatt-scale space data centers, validates the commercial viability of high-energy-demand space infrastructure.

We maintain an "Outperform" rating on the sector. The rigid requirements for high power-to-weight ratios in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites and space data centers create a distinct competitive moat for companies mastering thin-film silicon and perovskite technologies. While GaAs remains the incumbent for high-reliability missions, the cost-sensitive and scalable nature of commercial mega-constellations favors the rapid adoption of HJT and Perovskite solutions. We recommend investors focus on leaders in cell technology (Risen Energy, GCL Tech), equipment manufacturers (Maxwell, Jiejia Weichuang), and material suppliers (Longhua Technology), while monitoring the steady growth of the GaAs supply chain (Changelight, Sanan Optoelectronics).

Key Takeaways

1. The "Space Computing" Megatrend: From Concept to Scale

The narrative of space energy is no longer limited to traditional communication satellites; it is being redefined by the advent of Space Data Centers and AI-in-Orbit. The energy intensity of these new applications necessitates a paradigm shift in power generation technology.

• Infrastructure Milestones: In May 2025, China successfully launched the world’s first space computing constellation. By December 2025, SpaceX demonstrated the technical feasibility of hosting high-performance computing hardware in orbit by sending NVIDIA H100 GPUs to space. Elon Musk has outlined a roadmap to deploy 100 GW of solar-powered AI satellites annually. Concurrently, Beijing has proposed the construction of super-gigawatt power space data centers in the 700-800 km dawn-dusk orbit, formalizing a "Three-Step" strategy for 2025-2035.
• Market Projection: According to ResearchandMarkets, the global in-orbit data center market is projected to reach $39.09 billion by 2035, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 67.4% over the next decade. Jeff Bezos also predicts the construction of gigawatt-class space data centers within the next 10-20 years.
• Energy Demand Profile: Space computing assets are energy-hungry. Unlike terrestrial data centers constrained by grid capacity and cooling costs, space assets rely entirely on onboard generation. The operational environment offers significant advantages:
  • LEO Satellites: 60-70% sunlight exposure time, yielding 5,000-6,000 annual utilization hours.
  • Geostationary Orbit (GEO): Over 8,000 annual utilization hours.
  • Durability: Historical data from the International Space Station (ISS) shows that PV panels retain 88% efficiency after 15 years in space, demonstrating robust radiation resistance.

This surge in demand for continuous, high-density power directly aligns with the core value proposition of next-generation PV: high specific power (W/kg) and flexibility.

2. Technological Landscape: The Tripartite Competition

The space PV market is currently segmented into three primary technological routes, each with distinct value propositions and maturity levels.

A. Gallium Arsenide (GaAs): The Incumbent Standard

GaAs multi-junction cells remain the backbone of high-end aerospace applications due to their proven reliability and high efficiency under concentrated light.

• Market Status: GaAs accounts for over 90% of current aerospace PV applications. The global market size reached $425 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to $590 million by 2031 (CAGR 4.3%). In China, the market grew from ~RMB 5 billion in 2022 to a projected RMB 12 billion in 2025.
• Technology Dominance: Triple-junction cells dominate the GaAs segment, holding over 90% market share.
• Efficiency & Cost Trends: The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has achieved a record 47.1% conversion efficiency with six-junction stacked cells under concentration. Crucially, manufacturing costs are declining. NREL’s dynamic hydride vapor phase epitaxy (HVPE) method aims to reduce III-V solar cell costs to the $0.2-$0.8 per watt range.
• Investment Implication: While growth is slower than emerging tech, GaAs remains essential for mission-critical, long-life satellites. Leaders like Changelight Photoelectric and Sanan Optoelectronics benefit from this stable, high-margin niche.

B. P-Type Ultra-Thin HJT: The Near-Term Disruptor for LEO

Heterojunction (HJT) technology, particularly when thinned to ultra-low profiles, offers a compelling balance of performance, cost, and mechanical flexibility for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellations where launch mass is a primary cost driver.

• Thickness Advantage: Traditional PERC cells are approximately 130μm thick. Risen Energy has delivered P-type ultra-thin HJT cells with thicknesses of 50-70μm, with potential for further reduction. This ~50% reduction in thickness translates directly to reduced launch payload weight and fuel savings.
• Radiation Resistance: P-type silicon exhibits superior radiation hardness compared to N-type variants, a critical factor for long-term orbital stability.
• Flexibility & Integration: The thin profile enables the use of flexible solar wings (roll-out arrays), which significantly improve the volume utilization efficiency inside the satellite fairing.
• Commercial Traction: Risen Energy has a three-year track record of shipping these specialized products, with cumulative shipments reaching tens of thousands of units, primarily to European and American clients. All bulk-delivered special products utilize crystalline silicon HJT technology.
• Future Roadmap: Risen is actively developing tandem technologies. Its Global PV Research Institute has achieved a 30.99% conversion efficiency with Perovskite/Crystalline Silicon HJT tandem cells, positioning the company at the forefront of next-gen hybrid solutions.

C. Perovskite: The Long-Term Game Changer

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are breaking through traditional bottlenecks, offering the highest theoretical potential for specific power and lowest manufacturing costs.

• Performance Metrics:
  • Efficiency: Single-junction perovskite cells have exceeded 25% efficiency. The Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Semiconductor Institute developed a prototype with 27.2% efficiency and enhanced stability.
  • Radiation Hardness: Contrary to early concerns, recent studies show that all-perovskite tandem structures suffer only a 10% efficiency decay under a proton dose of $10^{12} \text{ protons/cm}^2$, outperforming traditional III-V multi-junction cells in certain radiation scenarios.
  • Weight & Form Factor: Perovskites can be fabricated on flexible substrates, enabling "deployable solar arrays" that drastically cut launch costs.
• Industrialization Progress (2025-2026):
  • GCL Tech: Its GW-level production line in Kunshan began producing large-size modules on October 29, 2025.
  • Microquanta Semiconductor: Launched the world’s first GW-level production line, which is now operational.
  • Sunshine Power (Xian Guangdian): Released a certified module ($2.88 \text{ m}^2$, 509.21W), signaling readiness for large-scale commercial deployment.
  • Upcoming Capacity: RenShuo GuangNeng and CATL are scheduled to commission GW-level lines in 2026.
• Strategic Collaboration: The partnership between Huatu Aerospace and Zhongneng Energy Storage (forming Hangtian Chaoneng) marks a pivotal moment, explicitly targeting space computing and energy applications. This moves perovskite from lab-scale curiosity to industrial-grade space infrastructure component.

3. Comparative Analysis of Space PV Technologies

Sector Dynamics & Supply Chain Opportunities

The expansion of space PV is not merely a cell-level story; it creates ripple effects across the entire upstream and downstream supply chain. We identify three key investment themes:

Theme 1: Cell & Module Innovators

Companies that have successfully adapted terrestrial PV technologies for space constraints are the primary beneficiaries.
* Risen Energy: As a leader in HJT, its ultra-thin P-type cells are already generating revenue in international markets. Its R&D in perovskite/silicon tandems provides a dual-engine growth strategy.
* GCL Tech & Junda Shares: Positioned to capitalize on the perovskite scale-up. GCL’s early mover advantage in GW-level production gives it a first-mover edge in securing space-grade contracts.
* Topray Solar (Tuori Xineng): With existing experience in space-grade components, it is well-positioned to bridge the gap between traditional and new-tech requirements.

Theme 2: Equipment Manufacturers (The "Pick-and-Shovel" Play)

The transition to thin-film and tandem technologies requires new manufacturing equipment.
* Maxwell Technologies (Maiwei Shares): As a leader in HJT whole-line equipment, Maxwell benefits from the adoption of HJT in space. Its expertise in vacuum coating and precision handling is critical for ultra-thin wafers.
* Jiejia Weichuang & Jingshan Light Machine: These companies are pivotal in the perovskite equipment landscape. As GW lines come online in 2026, equipment orders will precede revenue recognition from cell sales, offering an earlier investment entry point.

Theme 3: Critical Materials & Components

Space environments demand materials with exceptional thermal stability, radiation resistance, and lightweight properties.
* Longhua Technology: A key supplier of composite materials and thermal management solutions. Its products are essential for the structural integrity of flexible solar arrays.
* Sirui New Material & Oriental Tantalum: Provide specialized alloys and capacitors required for the harsh space environment.
* Shuangliang Eco-Energy & Goldwind: While primarily known for terrestrial renewable energy, their expertise in large-scale system integration and thermal control is increasingly relevant for massive space data center projects.

Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook for space PV is robust, institutional investors must consider the following risks:

1. Technological Execution Risk:

   • Perovskite Stability: Despite improved radiation resistance, long-term stability in the vacuum of space (outgassing, thermal cycling) remains a concern. Failure to meet 10-15 year lifespan expectations could delay widespread adoption.
   • HJT Yield Rates: Producing 50-70μm wafers at high yields is technically challenging. Breakage rates during manufacturing and launch vibrations could impact economics.

2. Launch Cost & Frequency Volatility:

   • The economic case for lightweight PV is tied to launch costs. While SpaceX has driven costs down, any stagnation or increase in launch prices could reduce the urgency for adopting premium lightweight technologies over cheaper, heavier alternatives.
   • Geopolitical tensions could restrict access to launch services for certain satellite operators, impacting the addressable market for Chinese PV suppliers.

3. Raw Material Price Fluctuations:

   • The production of HJT and Perovskite cells relies on specific materials (e.g., indium for ITO targets in HJT, lead/tin for perovskites). Supply chain bottlenecks or price spikes could erode margins.

4. Competitive Intensity:

   • The space sector is attracting significant capital. An influx of new entrants into the space PV niche could lead to price wars, particularly in the lower-margin LEO segment.
   • Traditional GaAs manufacturers may lower prices aggressively to defend market share against emerging silicon and perovskite technologies.

5. Regulatory & Orbital Debris Concerns:

   • Increased satellite density raises the risk of collisions. Regulatory bodies may impose stricter end-of-life deorbiting requirements, potentially affecting the design and cost structure of satellite power systems.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Rating: Outperform (Maintained)

We believe the Power Equipment & New Energy sector, specifically the space PV sub-segment, is poised for above-market growth. The convergence of commercial spaceflight scalability and AI-driven energy demand creates a secular tailwind that transcends typical cyclical fluctuations in terrestrial solar markets.

• Short-Term (1-2 Years): Growth will be driven by the adoption of Ultra-Thin HJT in LEO constellations. Companies with proven delivery records (e.g., Risen Energy) and equipment suppliers (Maxwell) are best positioned.
• Medium-Term (3-5 Years): Perovskite technology will begin to capture significant market share as GW-level lines prove reliability. Strategic partnerships like Huatu Aerospace’s joint venture will serve as key catalysts.
• Long-Term (5-10 Years): The realization of Space Data Centers will drive demand for gigawatt-scale power solutions. Hybrid tandem technologies (Perovskite/Silicon or Perovskite/GaAs) are likely to become the standard for high-efficiency, high-durability applications.

Valuation Perspective:
Given the high growth potential (CAGR >60% for space data centers), we suggest evaluating companies not just on current P/E ratios, but on their R&D pipeline strength, patent portfolios in space-grade PV, and strategic partnerships with aerospace primes. The market is currently underpricing the optionality of space applications for traditional PV firms.

Investment View

Core Investment Logic

1. Structural Demand Shift: The move from "communication-only" satellites to "compute-heavy" space infrastructure fundamentally changes the power budget. Energy is no longer a secondary constraint but a primary design driver. This favors technologies with high specific power (W/kg).
2. Cost-Performance Inflection: Terrestrial PV economies of scale are finally spilling over into space. The ability to produce space-grade cells using modified terrestrial lines (HJT/Perovskite) offers a cost advantage over bespoke GaAs manufacturing, opening up previously uneconomical missions.
3. Policy & Strategic Support: China’s "Three-Step" strategy for space data centers and the US private sector’s aggressive roadmap provide a dual-engine global demand base, reducing reliance on any single market.

Recommended Portfolio Strategy

We recommend a barbell strategy combining established leaders with high-growth innovators:

1. Core Holdings (Stability & Proven Tech)

• Risen Energy (300118.SZ): Buy/Accumulate.
  • Rationale: Only company with verified bulk deliveries of ultra-thin HJT for space. Strong export presence in Europe/US. Leading R&D in tandem cells provides upside optionality.
  • Key Metric: Monitor quarterly shipments of special-purpose HJT cells and margin trends in the space division.
• Changelight Photoelectric (300102.SZ) / Sanan Optoelectronics (600703.SH): Hold/Accumulate.
  • Rationale: Dominant players in the GaAs market. Beneficiaries of steady government and high-value commercial satellite launches. Stable cash flows support dividend potential.

2. Growth Engines (Perovskite & Equipment)

• GCL Tech (03800.HK) / Junda Shares (002865.SZ): Buy.
  • Rationale: Early leaders in perovskite commercialization. GCL’s GW line operational status is a key de-risking event. Junda’s integration into the supply chain offers exposure to both terrestrial and space markets.
• Maxwell Technologies (300751.SZ): Buy.
  • Rationale: Essential equipment provider for HJT. As more players adopt HJT for space, Maxwell’s order book should reflect this niche growth. High barrier to entry in precision vacuum equipment.
• Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ) / Jingshan Light Machine (000821.SZ): Accumulate.
  • Rationale: Pure plays on perovskite equipment expansion. High beta to the success of the 2026 GW-line rollouts by CATL, RenShuo, etc.

3. Satellite & System Integrators

• Huatu Aerospace (688066.SH): Buy.
  • Rationale: Direct beneficiary of space computing trends. The joint venture Hangtian Chaoneng positions it as a system integrator for space energy, capturing value beyond just component supply.

4. Material & Component Suppliers

• Longhua Technology (300263.SZ): Accumulate.
  • Rationale: Critical supplier of lightweight composites and thermal materials. Diversified customer base across aerospace and defense reduces single-client risk.

Conclusion

The rise of commercial spaceflight is not a speculative theme but an industrial reality entering its scaling phase. The intersection of AI computing and orbital infrastructure creates a unique, high-value niche for photovoltaic technology. Investors should pivot from viewing space PV as a small, exotic market to recognizing it as a high-growth extension of the global renewable energy transition.

We advise close monitoring of technical milestones (efficiency records, stability tests) and commercial contracts (launch manifests, satellite power system awards) in the coming quarters. The companies that successfully bridge the gap between terrestrial manufacturing scale and aerospace reliability standards will emerge as the dominant winners in this new frontier.

Disclaimer:
This report is based on publicly available information as of January 7, 2026. The views expressed are those of the analysts and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The securities mentioned may be subject to market volatility and regulatory changes.