Power Equipment & New Energy Weekly Report: Solid-State Battery Breakthroughs and Photovoltaic Price Stabilization

Date: October 19, 2025
Sector: Power Equipment & New Energy
Analyst Team: Deng Yongkang, Wang Yiru, Li Jia, et al. (Minsheng Securities Research Institute)

Executive Summary

The Power Equipment and New Energy sector experienced a correction during the week of October 13–17, 2025, declining by 5.30%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (-1.47%). Despite the broader market pullback, structural divergences within sub-sectors are becoming increasingly pronounced. Solar energy emerged as the relative outperformer (+0.52%), driven by signs of price stabilization across the photovoltaic (PV) supply chain. Conversely, industrial automation (-7.12%) and lithium batteries (-6.41%) faced significant pressure amid profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties.

This week’s report highlights three pivotal developments shaping the investment landscape for Q4 2025 and beyond:

1. Solid-State Battery (SSB) Inflection Point: China has achieved multiple critical breakthroughs in SSB technology, addressing longstanding bottlenecks in interface stability, energy density, and safety. Academic teams from Tsinghua University, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Institute of Metal Research, and CAS Institute of Physics have demonstrated prototypes with energy densities exceeding 604 Wh/kg, exceptional flexibility (20,000 bends), and robust cycle life without high external pressure. These advancements accelerate the commercialization timeline, with global SSB shipments projected to surge from 34 GWh in 2026 to 614 GWh by 2030.
2. Photovoltaic Supply Chain Stabilization: After months of volatility, PV prices are showing signs of bottoming out. Silicon material prices have stabilized, with tier-1 manufacturers holding firm at RMB 55/kg. Silicon wafer production schedules for October have increased, yet the market maintains a "price-support" stance. While some niche segments like 210RN cells face slight downward pressure due to oversupply, mainstream N-type products (183N/210N) remain stable. The industry’s self-discipline initiatives and potential supply-side reforms are beginning to anchor market expectations.
3. Grid Investment Milestone: State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) is on track to exceed an annual fixed asset investment of RMB 650 billion for the first time in 2025. With RMB 420 billion already invested in the first nine months (a 8.1% YoY increase), the acceleration in Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) projects and distribution network upgrades provides a deterministic revenue stream for power equipment manufacturers.

Investment Stance: We maintain a "Recommend" rating on the sector. We advise investors to pivot towards companies with technological moats (SSB leaders), beneficiaries of grid capex expansion (UHV and transformers), and PV players positioned to benefit from supply-side consolidation and overseas demand resilience.

Key Takeaways

1. New Energy Vehicles (NEV): The Solid-State Battery Revolution Accelerates

The narrative for the NEV sector is shifting from pure volume growth to technological differentiation, with solid-state batteries emerging as the next major catalyst.

1.1 Market Trajectory and Growth Potential

According to data from EV Tank and iiMedia Research, the global solid-state battery market is entering a phase of exponential growth:
* Shipment Volume: Expected to rise from 34 GWh in 2026 to 614 GWh in 2030.
* Market Penetration: All-solid-state batteries (ASSB) are projected to account for 10% of the total market by 2027, rising to 30% by 2030.
* Implication: This transition represents a multi-hundred-billion-dollar opportunity, favoring early movers in electrolyte materials, interface engineering, and specialized manufacturing equipment.

1.2 Critical Technological Breakthroughs (Week of Oct 13-17)

Three leading Chinese research institutions have announced simultaneous breakthroughs that address the "Holy Trinity" of SSB challenges: Energy Density, Interface Stability, and Mechanical Durability.

1.3 Investment Implications for NEV Supply Chain

The domestic NEV market remains robust, supported by the continuation of the "trade-in" subsidy policy through 2025. We identify three primary investment lines:

• Line 1: Competitive Landscape Optimization & Marginal Changes

  • Focus on sectors where competition is stabilizing and leaders are gaining share.
  • Top Picks: CATL (Battery leader), Enjie Shares (Separator), Sanhua Intelligent Controls (Thermal Management), Hongfa Technology (HVDC Relays), Faraday Electronic (Film Capacitors).
  • Watch List: Zhongrong Electric.

• Line 2: 4680 Large Cylindrical Cell Iteration

  • The 4680 format is achieving 210 Wh/kg, with potential to reach ~270 Wh/kg using High-Nickel 91 series cathodes and silicon-based anodes. This solves thermal management issues associated with high-nickel chemistries.
  • Key Components:
    • Structural Parts/Shells: Kedali, Slack.
    • High-Nickel Cathodes: Ronbay Technology, Dang Sheng Technology, Fangyuan Shares, Changyuan Lico, Huayou Cobalt, Zhenhua New Material, CNGR, GEM.
    • Electrolyte/Additives: Tinci Materials, Capchem (LiFSI layout); Carbon Nanotube suppliers.

• Line 3: High-Elasticity New Technologies (Solid-State)

  • Direct beneficiaries of the SSB breakthroughs.
  • Top Picks: Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (Cathode/Electrolyte integration), Tian Nai Technology (CNT conductive agents), Yuanli Shares (Porous carbon materials).

1.4 Lithium Material Price Trends (Oct 13-17)

While SSB news dominates headlines, current liquid-electrolyte lithium battery material prices show mixed signals, indicating a market in transition.

• Cathodes: NCM523 prices rose 9.60% WoW to RMB 132,400/ton, while NCM811 saw a modest 0.84% increase to RMB 156,600/ton. This suggests a slight restocking demand or cost pass-through from upstream nickel/cobalt.
• Precursors: NCM523 precursor prices increased 5.17% to RMB 93,600/ton.
• Lithium Salts: Prices remain weak. Battery-grade Lithium Carbonate dipped 0.27% to RMB 73,400/ton. Industrial grade fell 0.28% to RMB 71,100/ton. Lithium Hydroxide decreased 0.51% to RMB 78,100/ton. The lack of significant rebound indicates that downstream demand is not yet strong enough to drive a broad-based price rally.
• Anodes: Significant price cuts observed. High-end power anodes dropped 14.35% to RMB 38,800/ton, and mid-range anodes fell 6.25% to RMB 27,000/ton. This reflects intense competition and overcapacity in the graphitization segment.
• Cells: Ternary power cell prices jumped 22.50% to RMB 0.49/Wh. Note: This sharp increase may reflect specific high-performance product pricing or data adjustment rather than a sector-wide average shift, given the weak raw material trends.

2. New Energy Generation: Photovoltaic (PV) Prices Stabilize Amid Supply Discipline

The PV sector is exhibiting signs of bottoming out, driven by industry self-discipline, policy anticipation, and steady overseas demand.

2.1 Supply Chain Price Analysis

Silicon Material (Polysilicon):
* Price Status: Stable. Tier-1 manufacturers hold quotes at RMB 55/kg. Tier-2/3 manufacturers quote RMB 52-53/kg. Granular silicon new orders are around RMB 51/kg.
* Market Dynamics: Transaction volumes are low post-holiday. Downstream wafer makers still hold inventory. The market is in a "wait-and-see" mode regarding potential government-led "anti-involution" (anti-excessive competition) stockpiling policies.
* International Context: Overseas silicon prices hover at $18-19/kg. The U.S. "Big and Beautiful Act" and Section 232 investigations are prompting manufacturers to lock in overseas supply chains, leading to a slight uptick in September orders for non-Chinese sources. However, terminal demand uncertainty limits upward price momentum.

Silicon Wafers:
* Production: October scheduled production is significantly higher than September.
* Pricing Strategy: The market continues to support prices.
* 183N Wafers: Stable at RMB 1.35/piece. Supported by Indian demand ahead of anticipated anti-dumping tariffs (expected by year-end).
* 210N Wafers: Stable at RMB 1.70/piece. Activity is high due to domestic centralized project demand.
* 210RN Wafers: Mainstream transaction at RMB 1.40/piece, but some deals have fallen below this level, indicating weaker buyer acceptance and inventory pressure.
* Outlook: Prices expected to remain stable next week. If November production cuts proceed as planned, supply-demand balance will improve, supporting price stability.

Solar Cells:
* 183N (TOPCon): Average price stable at RMB 0.32/W. Supported by Indian stockpiling.
* 210N (TOPCon): Average price stable at RMB 0.31/W. Expected to rise to RMB 0.32/W next week due to domestic centralized demand.
* 210RN: Price slipped to RMB 0.285/W (Range: 0.285-0.29/W). Oversupply persists; only top-tier manufacturers can sustain RMB 0.29/W. Further downside risk exists for tier-2/3 players.
* Export Prices (USD):
* 182P PERC: $0.039/W (India demand).
* Southeast Asia P-Type (US Bound): $0.08-0.09/W (Avg $0.08/W).
* 183N TOPCon: $0.042/W. Expected to rise due to Indian tariff front-loading.
* Southeast Asia N-Type (US Bound): $0.10-0.12/W (Avg $0.11/W).

Modules:
* TOPCon 182mm Dual-Glass: Stable at RMB 0.693/W.
* HJT 210mm Dual-Glass: Stable at RMB 0.83/W.

2.2 Investment Strategy for PV & Wind & Storage

Photovoltaics:
The theme is "Supply-Side Reform + Differentiation." As "anti-involution" measures deepen, focus on leaders with cost advantages and technological edges.
1. Silicon Material Leaders: Beneficiaries of supply consolidation. Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, GCL Technology, Xinte Energy, and integrated players like Hongyuan Green Energy.
2. Technology & Capacity Expansion:
* Copper Paste/BC Tech: Boqian New Material, Polymer Materials, DKEM (paste/bindings); Aiko Solar, LONGi Green Energy (BC industrialization).
* TOPCon Leaders: Jinko Solar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, Astronergy.
3. Inverters (High Prosperity): Benefiting from global storage and PV demand. Sungrow, GoodWe, Ginlong Technologies, Deye Shares, Hoymiles, APsystems.
4. North America Exposure: High-margin markets recovering. Astronergy, Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics, Canadian Solar, Boway Alloy, Sungrow, Sineng Electric.

Wind Power:
The core driver is demand verification. The sector is moving from event-driven speculation to fundamentals-driven growth. Q4 2024 project acceleration is evident.
1. Offshore Wind: Focus on foundations (Haili Wind Power, Tianshun Heavy Industry, Taisheng Wind Power) and submarine cables (Orient Cable, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric). Deep-sea/floating wind: Asia Star Anchor Chain.
2. Global Competitiveness: Zhenjiang Shares, Dajin Heavy Industry, Mingyang Electrical, Riyue Heavy Industry, Goldwind, Mingyang Smart Energy, Sany Heavy Energy.
3. Large-MW Components: Cost-reduction enablers. Chongde Technology, Pangu Intelligent.

Energy Storage:
Demand is trending upward across three key scenarios:
1. Utility-Scale (Big Storage): Business model is key. Sungrow, Jinpan Technology, Huazi Technology, Clou Electronics, Narada Power, China Southern Power Grid Technology.
2. Residential Storage: Product competitiveness is key. Deye Shares, Kstar, Pylontech, Great Power Energy.
3. C&I Storage: Suwen Electric, Jingguan Electric, Jingguan Shares, Zeyu Intelligent.

3. Power Equipment & Industrial Control: Grid Investment Hits Record Highs

3.1 State Grid Investment Surge

• 2025 Forecast: State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) fixed asset investment is projected to exceed RMB 650 billion for the first time.
• YTD Performance: Jan-Sep 2025 investment reached RMB 420+ billion, up 8.1% YoY.
• Strategic Projects:
  • Completed/Operational: Longdong-Shandong, Hami-Chongqing, Ningxia-Hunan UHV DC projects. These enhance cross-regional transmission capacity.
  • Under Construction: Datong-Tianjin South, Yantai-Weihai UHV AC projects. These bolster reliability in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Shandong Peninsula.

3.2 Bidding Data (Jan-Sep 2025)

• Total SGCC Headquarters Bidding: RMB 140.912 billion.
• Transmission & Transformation: RMB 100.595 billion (71.38% of total).
• UHV Projects: RMB 22.158 billion (15.72% of total).
• Smart Meters: RMB 12.173 billion (8.64% of total).

3.3 Investment Themes for Power Equipment

Theme 1: Global Expansion (Export)
Chinese power equipment manufacturers possess a complete supply chain, competitive pricing, and high execution efficiency.
* Transformers & Primary Equipment: Jinpan Technology, Mingyang Electrical, Sieyuan Electric, Eaglerise.
* Transformer Components: Huaming Equipment (Tap changers), Wangbian Electric (Grain-oriented silicon steel).
* Meters & AMI: Hexing Electrical, Samsung Medical (Note: Likely typo in source, should be Samsung Medical? No, likely Sanxing Medical or similar meter co, but source says Samsung Medical. Correction: In context of meters, it is likely Ningbo Sanxing Medical is incorrect, probably Sanxing Electric or similar. However, sticking to source text: "Samsung Medical" is listed. Given the context of AMI, this is likely a translation error for Sanxing Electric or Wasion. We will list Hexing Electrical and Wasion Holdings as per standard sector knowledge, but note the source listing. Update: Source lists "Samsung Medical" and "Wasion Holdings". We will prioritize Hexing Electrical and Wasion).
* Communication Chips: Wasion Information.

Theme 2: Distribution Network Intelligence
Digitalization and smartification of the distribution grid are priority investments under the 14th Five-Year Plan.
* Grid Automation: NARI Technology, Sifang Shares.
* Digitalization: State Grid Information & Telecommunication.
* Distributed Energy/EPCO: Suwen Electric, Zeyu Intelligent, Core Energy Technology, Jinzhi Technology.
* Virtual Power Plants (VPP): Anke Rui, Dongfang Electronics, Hengshi Technology.

Theme 3: UHV Certainty
Clear planning for UHV lines ensures revenue visibility.
* Top Picks: Pinggao Electric, Xuji Electric.
* Watch: China XD Electric.

3.4 Industrial Control & Robotics: The Humanoid Era

The humanoid robot industry is in its early industrialization phase. Investment logic focuses on certainty and value content.

• Tesla Supply Chain (High Certainty):
  • Tier 1 Suppliers: Moons' Electric, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Tuopu Group.
  • Indirect Suppliers: Leader Harmonious Drive (Harmonic reducers), Wuzhou Xinchun (Bearings), Sling Shares.
• Domestic Cost-Effective Supply Chain (Mass Production Potential):
  • Reducers: Zhongda Leader, Jingduan Technology.
  • Screws/Actuators: Dingzhi Technology, Hengli Hydraulic, Best.
  • Motors: Weichuang Electric, Rujing Technology.
  • Sensors: Keli Sensing.
• Leading Domestic Industrial Control:
  • Top Pick: Inovance Technology.
  • Watch: Hechuan Technology, Leadshine Technology, Megmeet.

Risks / Headwinds

Investors must carefully consider the following risks that could impact the sector's performance:

1. Policy Uncertainty:

   • Domestic: Delays or reductions in new energy subsidies, grid connection approvals, or "anti-involution" policy implementation could slow demand.
   • International: Escalating trade barriers (e.g., US Section 301 tariffs, EU anti-subsidy investigations, India's ALMM list) could hinder export growth for PV, batteries, and grid equipment. The "Big and Beautiful Act" in the US may further restrict Chinese supply chain participation.

2. Intensified Competition & Price Wars:

   • Despite self-discipline efforts, the PV and Lithium Battery sectors still face structural overcapacity. If demand growth fails to absorb new capacity, prices for silicon, wafers, cells, and lithium salts could fall below cash costs, eroding margins for all but the most efficient producers.
   • In the NEV sector, aggressive pricing by OEMs may continue to squeeze upstream component suppliers.

3. Technological Disruption & Execution Risk:

   • Solid-State Batteries: While lab breakthroughs are promising, mass production yields, cost reduction, and supply chain scaling remain significant hurdles. Failure to commercialize by 2027-2028 could delay ROI.
   • PV Technology: Rapid iteration (TOPCon to HJT/BC) risks stranding assets for companies slow to adapt.

4. Raw Material Volatility:

   • Fluctuations in lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and polysilicon prices can disrupt cost structures. While current trends are downward, geopolitical shocks or supply disruptions could cause sudden spikes.

5. Macroeconomic Factors:

   • Global interest rate environments affect the financing costs for large-scale renewable energy projects and grid infrastructure. A stronger USD may impact the competitiveness of Chinese exports.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Overall Sector Rating: RECOMMEND (Overweight)

We maintain a positive outlook on the Power Equipment and New Energy sector, driven by structural growth trends, technological innovation, and policy support. However, we advocate for a selective approach, favoring companies with strong moats, global diversification, and exposure to high-growth niches (SSB, UHV, Offshore Wind).

Investment View

1. Strategic Allocation: Quality and Innovation

In a market environment characterized by both opportunity and volatility, we recommend a barbell strategy:
* Defensive End: Allocate to Grid Equipment leaders (Xuji, Pinggao, NARI) benefiting from deterministic state-backed capex. These companies offer stable earnings growth and low valuation risk.
* Offensive End: Allocate to Technological Innovators in Solid-State Batteries (CATL, Xiamen Tungsten) and Global PV/Storage Leaders (Sungrow, Deye) that can capture high-margin overseas markets and lead the next tech cycle.

2. Deep Dive: The Solid-State Battery Catalyst

The recent announcements from Tsinghua University and CAS are not merely academic exercises; they signal that the technical feasibility of high-performance ASSBs is no longer in question. The focus now shifts to engineering scalability.

• Why Invest Now? The market often underprices the speed of adoption once technical barriers are removed. With 604 Wh/kg energy density and inherent safety, SSBs unlock applications currently impossible for liquid Li-ion (e.g., long-range e-aviation, advanced humanoid robots).
• Key Beneficiaries:
  • CATL (300750.SZ): As the global battery leader, CATL is best positioned to integrate these academic breakthroughs into mass production. Its R&D spend and supply chain control give it a first-mover advantage.
  • Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (688778.SH): Strong in cathode materials and emerging electrolyte technologies. Its integration into the SSB value chain is deepening.
  • Tian Nai Technology (300693.SZ): Carbon nanotubes are critical for enhancing conductivity in solid electrolytes. As SSB adoption grows, demand for high-performance conductive agents will surge.

3. Photovoltaics: Navigating the Bottom

The PV sector is likely at or near its cyclical bottom. The stabilization of silicon prices and the industry's move towards self-discipline are positive signals.

• Action: Accumulate positions in integrated leaders with strong balance sheets and overseas exposure. Avoid pure-play manufacturers in highly commoditized segments (e.g., standard PERC modules) unless they have a clear cost advantage.
• Focus on Inverters & Storage: The inverter segment, particularly those with strong storage integration (Sungrow, Deye), continues to enjoy better margins and growth visibility than module makers. The global transition to renewable energy requires grid-forming inverters and storage solutions, creating a durable demand tailwind.

4. Grid Equipment: The "Safe Haven" with Growth

With SGCC investment hitting record highs, the power equipment sector offers a rare combination of policy certainty and growth.

• UHV Boom: The completion of major UHV DC lines and the start of new AC projects directly benefit Pinggao Electric (GIS switches) and Xuji Electric (DC control valves, converters).
• Distribution Upgrade: The push for smart grids and distributed energy integration favors NARI Technology and Sifang Shares.
• Export Alpha: Companies like Jinpan Technology and Sieyuan Electric are successfully expanding in Europe and North America, leveraging their cost advantages and rapid delivery capabilities. This export growth provides a hedge against domestic saturation.

5. Corporate Spotlight: Financials & Valuation

Below is a detailed analysis of key recommended companies, including their financial forecasts and valuation metrics as of October 17, 2025.

Table: Key Company Profit Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings

Source: Wind, Minsheng Securities Research Institute Forecasts. Note: Prices are closing prices from October 17, 2025.

Analysis of Key Recommendations:

1. CATL (300750.SZ):

   • Logic: Dominant market share, superior technology roadmap (Shenxing Pro, Condensed Battery, SSB R&D), and strong cash flow. The projected EPS growth from 11.58 (2024) to 17.64 (2026) reflects robust demand and margin stability.
   • Valuation: Trading at 24x 2025E PE, which is reasonable for a tech leader with 20%+ earnings growth.

2. Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ) & Haili Wind Power (301155.SZ):

   • Logic: Both are key beneficiaries of the offshore wind revival. Dajin has a strong export footprint (foundations), while Haili is a domestic leader in pile foundations.
   • Valuation: Haili shows a dramatic EPS jump from 0.30 (2024) to 3.29 (2025), reflecting the base effect and project ramp-up. Dajin’s PE compresses from 63x to 29x, indicating high growth expectations are being priced in.

3. Deye Shares (605117.SH):

   • Logic: Leading hybrid inverter supplier for residential storage, with strong presence in emerging markets (South Africa, Southeast Asia, Europe).
   • Valuation: Attractive PE of 15-18x. The slight dip in 2025E EPS (3.90 vs 4.76 in 2024) may reflect conservative assumptions or inventory adjustments, but 2026E recovery to 4.65 suggests resilience.

4. Xuji Electric (000400.SZ) & Mingyang Electrical (301291.SZ):

   • Logic: Direct plays on SGCC’s UHV and distribution grid spending. Xuji is a leader in DC transmission equipment; Mingyang benefits from transformer and switchgear demand.
   • Valuation: Low PE multiples (15-18x for 2025E) provide a margin of safety. Steady EPS growth supports a "defensive growth" profile.

5. Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (688778.SH):

   • Logic: Pure play on battery material innovation, particularly in high-voltage cathodes and solid-state electrolyte precursors.
   • Valuation: Higher PE (46x 2025E) reflects its growth premium and exposure to the high-elasticity SSB theme.

6. Conclusion

The week of October 13-17, 2025, marked a significant turning point in the narrative for China's New Energy sector. The solid-state battery breakthroughs provide a tangible catalyst for the next decade of EV innovation, moving the conversation from "if" to "when." Simultaneously, the stabilization of PV prices and the record grid investment offer immediate fundamental support.

For institutional investors, the current market dislocation (sector down 5.30%) presents an attractive entry point for high-quality assets. We recommend overweighting Grid Equipment for stability and SSB/PV Leaders for growth. The key to success in Q4 2025 and 2026 will be selecting companies that can navigate the supply-side reforms in PV, capitalize on the grid capex supercycle, and lead the technological transition in batteries.

Final Recommendation: Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Power Equipment & New Energy. Focus on CATL, Sungrow, Xuji Electric, and Dajin Heavy Industry as core holdings, with satellite positions in Xiamen Tungsten New Energy and Haili Wind Power for higher beta exposure.

Appendix: Detailed Data Tables and Charts Reference

(Note: The following tables and chart descriptions are derived from the original report data for reference.)

Table 4: Recent Lithium Battery Material Price Trends (Oct 13-17, 2025)

Source: Xinchuang Lithium, Minsheng Securities Research Institute

Table 6: PV Supply Chain Price Trends (Oct 13-17, 2025)

Source: PVInfoLink, Minsheng Securities Research Institute

Market Performance Summary (Oct 13-17, 2025)

• Shanghai Composite: 3839.76 (-1.47%)
• Shenzhen Component: 12688.94 (-4.99%)
• ChiNext: 2935.37 (-5.71%)
• Power Equipment & New Energy Index: 9435.18 (-5.30%)

Sub-Sector Performance:
* 🟢 Solar: +0.52%
* 🔴 Wind Power: -2.63%
* 🔴 Nuclear Power: -4.10%
* 🔴 Energy Storage: -4.82%
* 🔴 NEV: -5.31%
* 🔴 Lithium Battery: -6.41%
* 🔴 Industrial Automation: -7.12%

Top Gainers:
1. Sunflower (300111.SZ): +22.87%
2. Sifang Shares (601126.SH): +20.52%
3. Shida Shenghua (603026.SH): +18.01%
4. Heshun Electric (300141.SZ): +17.38%
5. Tianji Shares (002759.SZ): +15.99%

Top Losers:
1. Baili Electric (600468.SH): -16.54%
2. Smart Energy (600869.SH): -15.59%
3. Ginlong Technologies (300763.SZ): -15.39%
4. Moons' Electric (603728.SH): -14.62%
5. Zhongdian Xinlong (002298.SZ): -13.99%

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