New Energy Monthly Report: September-October 2025

Energy Storage Exceeds Expectations; Wind Power Bidding Improves; Photovoltaic "Anti-Involution" Progresses

Date: October 17, 2025
Analyst: Duohong Zeng (S0600516080001)
Source: Soochow Securities Research Institute

Executive Summary

The global new energy landscape in late 2025 presents a divergent yet structurally optimizing picture. While domestic Chinese photovoltaic (PV) installations faced a temporary slowdown in August due to policy transitions and weak terminal demand support, the broader narrative is shifting decisively from无序 (disorderly) price competition to high-quality development driven by regulatory intervention. Simultaneously, overseas markets, particularly in India, Europe, and the United States, continue to demonstrate robust growth, providing a crucial buffer for Chinese manufacturers.

Three core themes define the current investment horizon:
1. Photovoltaics (PV): The industry is undergoing a profound supply-side reform. Government mandates, including the revision of mandatory national standards for polysilicon energy consumption and the implementation of Document No. 136 across 28 provinces, are actively curbing "involutionary" low-price competition. Although August domestic installations dropped 55% YoY, cumulative YTD growth remains strong at +65%. Supply chain prices are showing signs of stabilization and modest recovery, particularly in wafers, though most links remain in loss-making territory.
2. Energy Storage: This sector has emerged as the brightest spot, with domestic and international large-scale storage (utility-scale) experiencing a surge in景气度 (prosperity). In the US, policy risks have largely abated, leading to a rush in installations. In China, the introduction of capacity electricity price policies in multiple provinces is clarifying revenue models for independent storage, driving a 30% YoY increase in bidding volume. Australian residential storage is also exploding due to new subsidy programs.
3. Wind Power: The sector is witnessing a resonance of onshore and offshore demand. Onshore wind bidding remains healthy, while offshore wind projects in key provinces like Jiangsu and Guangdong are progressing smoothly, with deep-sea projects beginning to catalyze future growth. Profitability for wind turbine manufacturers and component suppliers is showing signs of inflection, with margins expected to improve further in 2026.

Investment Stance: We maintain an Overweight rating on the New Energy sector, with a specific preference for Energy Storage (inverters, systems), Wind Power (subsea cables, towers, OEMs), and PV Leaders benefiting from supply-side consolidation and technological innovation.

Key Takeaways

1. Photovoltaics: Policy-Driven Consolidation and Price Stabilization

Domestic Market: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain

• Installation Slowdown: In August 2025, China’s newly installed PV capacity was 7.36 GW, a significant decline of 55.29% YoY. However, the cumulative installation from January to August reached 230.61 GW, representing a robust 65% YoY growth. The August dip reflects a transitional period as the market adjusts to new pricing mechanisms and the aftermath of a strong H1.
• Policy Reform (Document No. 136): Twenty-eight provinces have sequentially released detailed implementation rules for Document No. 136, establishing mechanism electricity prices and initiating competitive bidding.
  • Mechanism Prices: Initial results in Shandong and Yunnan show mechanism prices ranging from 0.2 to 0.3 RMB/kWh.
  • Market Orientation: Provinces like Inner Mongolia (East/West), Xinjiang, and Sichuan are pushing for higher market participation, reducing guaranteed purchase hours for existing projects and eliminating guarantees for new incremental projects. This forces developers to compete on cost and efficiency rather than relying solely on subsidies.
  • Impact: This structural shift aims to break the "involutionary" cycle by ensuring that only efficient, low-cost projects survive, thereby improving the long-term health of the industry.

Supply Chain: Bottoming Out and Modest Recovery

• Polysilicon: Production exceeds demand, leading to inventory pressure. September production was approximately 130,000 tons, with social inventory estimated at 440,000–450,000 tons. N-type dense material prices averaged 51.7 RMB/kg in late September, up 10.87% MoM, but the market remains fragmented with wide price disparities.
• Wafers: Leading enterprises have completed price adjustments. As of September 24, the average price for 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafers was 1.35 RMB/piece, an 8.00% MoM increase. This price repair has helped move gross margins from negative to near-break-even for some sizes, aiding profitability recovery.
• Cells & Modules: Cell production schedules are stable with slight increases, driven by overseas demand. 182mm TOPCon cell prices held steady at 0.31 RMB/W. Module prices saw a slight uptick (182mm TOPCon at ~0.69 RMB/W, +1.17% MoM), but overall demand weakness has led to lowered production expectations for October.
• Profitability: Most links in the PV chain remain unprofitable. As of late September:
  • Polysilicon: Break-even.
  • Wafers: Loss of ~0.01 RMB/W.
  • Cells: Loss of ~0.01 RMB/W.
  • Modules: Loss of ~0.08 RMB/W.
  • Integrated Companies: Loss of ~0.09–0.10 RMB/W.
  • Implication: The industry is still in a clearing phase, but the rate of loss is stabilizing, suggesting the bottom is near.

Anti-Involution Measures: Regulatory Intervention

• National Standards Revision: The Standardization Administration of China has revised mandatory national standards for polysilicon energy consumption. The new Tier 3 standard (6.4 kgce/kg for Siemens method) is significantly stricter than the current industry average (~7.1–7.4 kgce/kg). We estimate that ~30% of existing capacity may fail to meet these standards, forcing exit or costly upgrades. This will effectively constrain supply and support prices.
• Six-Ministry Symposium: In August, six ministries convened to address low-price disorderly competition, emphasizing strict quality control, intellectual property protection, and the elimination of below-cost sales. This coordinated effort signals a strong political will to restore industry profitability.

Overseas Markets: Resilient Growth

• Exports: In August 2025, module exports reached 25.02 GW, up 29.7% MoM and 21.6% YoY. Cumulative exports (Jan-Aug) were 166.09 GW, down slightly by 3.03% YoY, indicating a stabilization after previous declines.
• Key Markets:
  • India: July installations surged 60% YoY to 2.77 GW. Cumulative capacity exceeded 100 GW. The reduction of GST on solar components from 12% to 5% is further stimulating demand.
  • USA: Q2 2025 installations were 7.5 GW, up 9.83% YoY. Despite some slowing momentum, the anticipation of stricter local content requirements under the "Big and Beautiful Act" is driving a pre-deadline rush.
  • Europe: Germany, Spain, and the UK showed mixed but generally positive trends, with Spain’s July installations jumping nearly 95% MoM.

2. Energy Storage: High Prosperity and Model Innovation

Global Large-Scale Storage Boom

• United States:
  • Installations: Jan-Aug 2025 cumulative large-scale storage installations reached 8,043 MW / 25.1 GWh, up 33% / 46% YoY. August alone saw 1,085 MW installed.
  • Policy: Policy risks have largely dissipated. While the BBB Act imposes stricter local content rules for 2026, projects starting construction before end-2025 are exempt, triggering a significant rush in orders and shipments.
  • Outlook: EIA expects 22–23 GW of new installations in 2025. The backlog of approved projects (55.7 GW) ensures strong visibility for 2025–2026.
• Europe:
  • Growth: European large-scale storage is expected to reach 18 GWh in 2025, a 125% YoY increase.
  • Drivers: Italy’s €17.7 billion subsidy package and the UK’s upward revisions to storage targets are key catalysts. Italy’s independent storage installations jumped from 635 MWh in Q1 2024 to 4,049 MWh in Q1 2025.
  • Residential: Residential storage in Germany and Italy has declined due to falling electricity prices and subsidy tapering, but inventory levels have normalized.

China: Independent Storage and Capacity Pricing

• Installations & Bidding: H1 2025 saw 23.0 GW / 56.1 GWh of new storage installations, up 68% YoY. Jan-Sep bidding volume reached 102 GWh, up 30% YoY, indicating strong future demand.
• Policy Support: Multiple provinces (Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Hebei, Ningxia, Xinjiang) have introduced capacity electricity price policies.
  • Mechanism: These policies provide a baseline revenue stream via capacity payments (e.g., 330 RMB/kW/year in Gansu, 100–165 RMB/kW/year in Ningxia) alongside energy arbitrage.
  • Economics: Project IRRs are now estimated at 8–12%, with high-value provinces reaching >15%. This clarity is unlocking financing and deployment.
• Price Trends: Storage system prices have bottomed out around 0.5 RMB/Wh. In September, average bids for 2-hour systems rose 31% MoM to 0.641 RMB/Wh, and 4-hour systems rose 8% to 0.464 RMB/Wh, driven by tighter cell supply and higher quality requirements for independent storage projects.

Emerging Markets: Australia’s Residential Surge

• Policy: Australia launched a AUD 2.3 billion "Household Storage Bonus Scheme" in July 2025, covering ~30% of installation costs.
• Impact: From July 1 to September 6, 50,000 new household solar+battery systems were installed (900 MWh), exceeding the entire 2024 volume. Chinese inverter exports to Australia surged, with July and August exports reaching $55.5M and $68.3M respectively, marking a high-growth trajectory.

3. Wind Power: Offshore Momentum and Profitability Inflection

Installation and Bidding Trends

• Onshore Wind: Jan-Sep 2025 bidding reached 79 GW, up 7% YoY. Prices have stabilized at >1,500 RMB/kW (ex-tower) and >2,000 RMB/kW (with tower), ending the prolonged price war.
• Offshore Wind: Jan-Sep bidding was 8.3 GW, up 9% YoY. Prices remain stable at 3,000–3,500 RMB/kW.
• Installations: Jan-Aug 2025 installations totaled 58 GW, up 72% YoY. We forecast 2025 onshore installations to approach 100 GW (+25% YoY) and offshore to reach 8–10 GW (+33–67% YoY).

Project Progress: Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Deep Sea

• Jiangsu: Key projects (Dafeng 850MW, Dafeng 800MW, Sheyang 1GW) have started construction or completed military approvals, resolving long-standing bottlenecks.
• Guangdong: Qingzhou V/VII and Fanshi I/II projects have completed turbine and cable tenders. Cable laying for Qingzhou V began in September 2025.
• Deep Sea: Demonstration projects in Zhejiang (2GW), Shandong (3GW), and Hainan (1.5GW+) are advancing rapidly, signaling the next growth frontier. These projects require higher voltage cables (500kV+ HVDC) and floating/fixed foundations, offering higher value-added opportunities.

Profitability Analysis

• Turbines: Margins are inflecting upwards. Goldwind’s H1 2025 turbine gross margin improved to ~8% (+4 pct YoY). With higher bid prices from late 2024 flowing through, 2026 is expected to show even stronger profit elasticity.
• Subsea Cables: Leading players (Orient Cable, Zhongtian, Hengtong) maintain stable, high gross margins (30–40%+) due to the increasing proportion of high-voltage AC/DC cables and stringent entry barriers. Orient Cable’s order book remains robust.
• Towers/Piles: Export-oriented companies (Dajin Heavy Industry, Taisheng Wind) are benefiting from higher overseas prices and favorable trade terms (DAP vs. FOB). Dajin’s overseas net profit per ton exceeds 4,000 RMB, significantly higher than domestic levels. Domestic tower makers (Haili, Tianshun) are seeing margin recovery due to higher capacity utilization and offshore volume growth.

Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook is broadly positive, investors must monitor the following risks:

1. Intensified Competition: Despite regulatory efforts, if price wars reignite in PV or wind, it could erode margins faster than anticipated. The effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies depends on strict enforcement.
2. Policy Uncertainty:
   • Domestic: Changes in grid connection policies, subsidy delays, or stricter local content requirements could impact project economics.
   • International: Trade barriers (tariffs, anti-dumping investigations) in the US, EU, or India could disrupt export channels. The US "Big and Beautiful Act" implementation details remain a variable.
3. Grid Congestion and Curtailment: As renewable penetration increases, grid absorption capacity becomes a bottleneck. Administrative limits on new installations or increased curtailment rates could dampen demand, particularly in resource-rich but load-poor regions (e.g., Northwest China).
4. Supply Chain Disruptions:
   • Raw Materials: Shortages or price spikes in critical components like IGBTs, lithium carbonate, or special steel could constrain production and raise costs.
   • Logistics: Geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes could increase freight costs and delay deliveries.
5. Execution Risk in Offshore Wind: Offshore projects face complex permitting, environmental, and technical challenges. Delays in Jiangsu or Guangdong projects could push revenue recognition into later years.
6. Interest Rate Environment: High interest rates can increase the cost of capital for renewable projects, potentially lowering IRRs and delaying final investment decisions (FIDs), especially in emerging markets.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Outlook: Overweight

We maintain an Overweight rating on the New Energy sector. The combination of policy-driven supply discipline in PV, explosive growth in Energy Storage, and the cyclical recovery in Wind Power creates a compelling risk-reward profile.

• Photovoltaics: Neutral to Positive. The sector is transitioning from a "volume-driven" to a "quality-driven" phase. While short-term earnings may remain under pressure due to legacy losses, the valuation bottom is likely in place. Leaders with cost advantages and technological edges will gain market share.
• Energy Storage: Positive. This is the highest-growth sub-sector. The clarity of revenue models in China and the policy tailwinds in the US and Europe provide strong visibility for earnings growth over the next 2–3 years.
• Wind Power: Positive. The offshore wind sector is entering a period of accelerated deployment, with deep-sea projects offering long-term optionality. Onshore wind is stabilizing with improving margins.

Investment Themes

1. High Prosperity: Inverters & Tracking Systems

   • Beneficiaries of global storage boom and distributed PV growth.
   • Top Picks: Sungrow Power Supply, Deye Shares, Sineng Electric, Clenergy, Ginlong Technologies, Hoymiles, GoodWe, Shenghong Shares, Tongrun Equipment, Kstar, Kehua Data, Aiko Energy.
   • Watch: Yuno Technology.

2. Supply-Side Reform Beneficiaries: PV Leaders

   • Companies with superior cost structures and balance sheets that will survive the consolidation and benefit from price stabilization.
   • Top Picks: Tongwei Co., Flat Glass Group, Foster Material.
   • Watch: GCL Technology.
   • Module Leaders with Channel Strength: JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics.

3. Technology Innovators

   • Leaders in N-type cells (TOPCon, HJT, BC) and advanced materials.
   • Top Picks: LONGi Green Energy, Junda Shares, Aiko Shares, Polymer Materials, DKEM.
   • Watch: TCL Zhonghuan, Yubang New Material, Meichuang Shares.

4. Wind Power: Offshore & Deep Sea Focus

   • Subsea Cables: High barriers to entry,受益于 (benefiting from) deep-sea expansion.
     • Top Picks: Orient Cable (strong overseas breakthrough, local project pipeline), Qifan Cable (breakthroughs in Zhejiang/Guangdong, ultra-high voltage capabilities).
     • Watch: Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric.
   • Towers/Piles: Dual-domestic and overseas growth.
     • Top Picks: Dajin Heavy Industry (export leader, high overseas margins), Tianshun Energy (jacket foundation growth, European layout), Haili Wind Power (pure offshore play, Jiangsu exposure), Taisheng Wind (profitable exports, offshore ramp-up).
   • OEMs: Margin recovery and scale.
     • Top Picks: Sany Heavy Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Science & Technology.
     • Watch: Windey Shares.
   • Components:
     • Castings/Forgings: Riyue Shares (processing, exports, raw material cost decline), Jinlei Shares.
     • Blades/Bearings: Times New Material, CRRC Technology, Chongde Technology, Xinqianglian.

Investment View

1. Photovoltaics: Navigating the Transition to Quality

The PV industry is at a critical juncture. The era of blind expansion is over, replaced by a regime of regulated competition. For institutional investors, the key is to distinguish between survivors and thrivers.

Strategic Implications:
* Avoid Pure Capacity Plays: Companies that relied solely on scale without technological differentiation or cost leadership are at risk of being squeezed out by the new energy consumption standards and market-based pricing.
* Focus on Technology Leaders: The shift to N-type technologies (TOPCon, HJT, BC) is accelerating. Companies like LONGi and Aiko are demonstrating higher efficiencies and better margins. The policy push for >26% efficiency cells favors those with strong R&D pipelines.
* Valuation Opportunity: With most major PV stocks trading at historically low P/B ratios (often <2x) and negative or low P/E due to temporary losses, the downside risk is limited. As prices stabilize and losses narrow in H2 2025/H1 2026, valuation repair is likely.
* Export Resilience: Despite trade headwinds, Chinese PV modules remain cost-competitive globally. Companies with diversified manufacturing footprints (e.g., Southeast Asia, Middle East) and strong brand channels (e.g., Jinko, Canadian Solar) are better positioned to navigate tariff barriers.

Key Metric to Watch: Polysilicon and Wafer prices. A sustained rebound above cash cost for all major players would signal the end of the clearing phase.

2. Energy Storage: The New Growth Engine

Energy storage is no longer just an accessory to renewables; it is becoming a standalone asset class with viable economics.

Strategic Implications:
* US Market Dominance: The US remains the most profitable market for large-scale storage. Companies with strong US presence and compliance capabilities (e.g., Sungrow, Tesla partners) will capture disproportionate profits. The "rush to build" before 2026 local content rules take effect provides a clear 12–18 month revenue visibility window.
* China’s Policy Pivot: The introduction of capacity payments transforms storage from a cost center to a revenue-generating asset. This unlocks the previously stalled independent storage market. Investors should favor integrators and PCS providers with proven track records in grid-forming technologies and safety records, as quality becomes paramount over lowest price.
* Residential Storage Rebound: While Europe’s residential market is cooling, emerging markets like Australia, South Africa, and parts of Latin America are heating up due to grid instability and new subsidies. Deye Shares and Hoymiles are well-positioned to capture this geographic diversification.
* Battery Supply Chain: The tightening of lithium battery supply and the rise in prices suggest that battery makers with integrated upstream resources (e.g., CATL, BYD) will have better margin control. However, for pure-play storage integrators, the ability to pass through costs is key.

Key Metric to Watch: US large-scale storage installation rates vs. EIA forecasts; Chinese provincial capacity payment implementation speed.

3. Wind Power: The Offshore Renaissance

Wind power, particularly offshore, is emerging from a period of stagnation into a high-growth phase, driven by project completions and technological advancement.

Strategic Implications:
* Offshore Cable Moat: Subsea cables, especially high-voltage DC (HVDC) for deep-sea projects, have extremely high technical and qualification barriers. Orient Cable and Zhongtian Technology operate in a quasi-duopoly for high-end projects. As projects move further offshore (50km+, 50m+ depth), the value per MW for cables increases significantly. This segment offers the best risk-adjusted returns in the wind chain.
* Tower Export Arbitrage: Chinese tower manufacturers enjoy a significant cost advantage over European peers. With Europe’s ambitious offshore targets and limited local capacity, Chinese exporters like Dajin Heavy Industry are securing long-term contracts at premium prices. The shift to DAP (Delivered at Place) terms further enhances their profitability by capturing logistics margins.
* OEM Margin Recovery: The wind turbine bidding price war has ended. With prices stabilizing and raw material costs (steel) moderating, OEMs like Goldwind and Sany Heavy Energy are seeing margin expansion. The transition to larger turbines (15MW+) for offshore use also favors technologically advanced OEMs.
* Deep Sea Optionality: Projects in Zhejiang and Shandong are testing the waters for floating and fixed deep-sea wind. Success here will open up a vast new resource base, extending the industry’s growth runway beyond 2030.

Key Metric to Watch: Offshore wind project commissioning rates in Jiangsu and Guangdong; Order backlog for high-voltage subsea cables.

Conclusion

The New Energy sector in late 2025 is characterized by structural optimization rather than uniform growth. Investors should pivot from a broad-based beta strategy to a selective alpha strategy.

• Buy: Energy Storage integrators with US exposure; Offshore wind cable and tower leaders; PV technology leaders with strong balance sheets.
• Hold: Traditional PV module makers awaiting further price confirmation; Onshore wind OEMs.
• Avoid: Small-scale PV manufacturers with high debt and outdated technology; Companies heavily exposed to single markets with high geopolitical risk without mitigation strategies.

The convergence of supportive policies, technological maturity, and global decarbonization goals ensures that the long-term trajectory for new energy remains upward. The current volatility offers an attractive entry point for long-term institutional capital.

Appendix: Financial Estimates and Valuations

(Note: All financial data and ratings are based on Soochow Securities estimates as of October 17, 2025. Market prices are subject to fluctuation.)

Photovoltaic Sector Valuation Table

Wind Power Sector Valuation Table

(Source: Wind, Soochow Securities Estimates)

Detailed Analysis: Policy and Market Dynamics

1. Deep Dive: Document No. 136 and Provincial Implementation

The implementation of Document No. 136 represents the most significant structural change in China's PV market in recent years. It marks the end of the "guaranteed purchase" era for most new projects and the beginning of true market-based pricing.

Key Provincial Variations:

• Shandong: A balanced approach. Existing projects receive strong protection (0.3949 RMB/kWh), while new projects enter a competitive bidding process with a price range of 0.123–0.35 RMB/kWh. This encourages new entrants to be highly efficient. The first round of bidding resulted in 1.265 GW of projects at an average of 0.225 RMB/kWh.
• Inner Mongolia (East/West): Highly market-oriented. Existing subsidized projects have reduced guaranteed hours (e.g., 250 hours for some in West Inner Mongolia). New projects have no guarantees and are fully exposed to market prices. This is challenging for developers but necessary for grid stability in a region with high renewable penetration.
• Xinjiang: Aggressive pricing. Guaranteed prices for existing projects are low (0.25–0.262 RMB/kWh), and new project bidding ranges are even lower (0.15–0.262 RMB/kWh). This reflects the region's abundant solar resources and low generation costs, but puts pressure on developer margins.
• Shanghai: Protective of distributed PV. Due to the small scale and high value of distributed projects, Shanghai offers 100% guarantee for existing projects and a sophisticated mechanism for new projects linked to green power trading participation. This incentivizes the growth of the local green power market.
• Sichuan: "Low Guarantee, Strong Market." Existing centralized PV projects receive only 300 hours of guaranteed generation per year. This forces the majority of generation into the spot market, reflecting Sichuan's hydro-dominated grid and the need for PV to complement rather than compete with hydro.

Investment Implication: Developers and manufacturers must adapt to a world where levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is the sole determinant of competitiveness. Projects in high-curtailed regions must incorporate storage or flexible generation capabilities. Manufacturers must provide modules with higher bifaciality and temperature coefficients to maximize yield in market-based environments.

2. Deep Dive: Energy Storage Economics in China

The introduction of capacity electricity prices is a game-changer for independent storage. Previously, storage relied solely on peak-valley arbitrage, which was often insufficient to cover costs due to narrowing spreads and limited cycling.

Revenue Stack Analysis:

1. Capacity Payment: Provides a fixed revenue stream based on available capacity. For example, in Gansu, 330 RMB/kW/year translates to roughly 0.09 RMB/kWh assuming 3,600 equivalent full-load hours. This covers a significant portion of fixed costs (depreciation, O&M).
2. Energy Arbitrage: Charging during low-price periods (midday for solar) and discharging during peak periods (evening). With spot market reforms, price volatility is increasing, enhancing arbitrage potential.
3. Ancillary Services: Frequency regulation, voltage support, and black start capabilities. These services are increasingly valued as grid inertia decreases.

IRR Sensitivity:

• Base Case: Without capacity payments, many storage projects had IRRs <6%.
• With Capacity Payments: IRRs rise to 8–12%. In provinces with high peak-valley spreads (e.g., Guangdong, Zhejiang), IRRs can exceed 15%.
• Key Driver: The number of full charge-discharge cycles per year. Policies that mandate minimum cycles (e.g., 330 times/year in Hebei) ensure asset utilization, reducing the risk of stranded assets.

Investment Implication: Focus on companies with strong system integration capabilities and software algorithms that optimize charging/discharging strategies. Hardware commoditization is occurring, so value accrues to those who can maximize revenue through intelligent operation.

3. Deep Dive: Offshore Wind Supply Chain Bottlenecks

Despite strong demand, the offshore wind supply chain faces specific bottlenecks that create moats for established players.

• Subsea Cables: High-voltage (220kV, 330kV, 500kV) cables require specialized manufacturing facilities and extensive testing. Qualification by state-owned utilities takes 2–3 years. This creates a high barrier to entry. Orient Cable has a dominant position in 500kV AC and HVDC projects.
• Foundations: Monopiles for deeper waters require larger diameters and thicker walls, demanding heavy-duty rolling and welding capabilities. Dajin Heavy Industry and Haili Wind Power have invested heavily in large-scale production bases near ports, reducing logistics costs.
• Installation Vessels: There is a shortage of suitable installation vessels for 15MW+ turbines in deep water. This can lead to project delays. Companies that secure vessel leases or own fleets (like some European players, though less common in China) have an advantage.

Investment Implication: The supply chain bottleneck supports pricing power for cable and foundation makers. Investors should monitor order backlogs and delivery schedules as indicators of future revenue recognition.

Final Remarks

The New Energy sector is evolving from a high-growth, high-volatility industry into a more mature, policy-guided, and technologically driven sector. While the days of exponential growth for every participant are over, the leaders are poised for sustainable, profitable expansion.

For institutional investors, the key is to align with policy direction (anti-involution, high-quality development), capitalize on structural growth (energy storage, offshore wind), and select companies with durable competitive advantages (technology, cost, channel).

We remain confident in the long-term prospects of the New Energy sector and recommend a strategic overweight position, with tactical adjustments based on quarterly earnings and policy updates.

Disclaimer:
This report is prepared by Soochow Securities Research Institute for institutional clients only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. Soochow Securities and its affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned and may engage in transactions related thereto.