Research report

Power Equipment and New Energy Industry Weekly (3rd Week of November): NEV market share exceeded 50% for the first time in October; photovoltaic "anti-involution" progresses steadily

Published 2025-11-16 · BOC International · Wu Jiaxiong,Li Yang
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Power Equipment and New Energy Industry Weekly (3rd Week of November): NEV market share exceeded 50% for the first time in October; photovoltaic "anti-involution" progresses steadily

OutperformBattery
Date2025-11-16
InstitutionBOC International
AnalystsWu Jiaxiong,Li Yang
RatingOutperform
IndustryBattery
Report typeIndustry

Power Equipment & New Energy Sector Weekly Report

Date: November 16, 2025
Rating: Outperform (Stronger than Market)
Analysts: Jiaxiong Wu (S1300523070001), Yang Li (S1300523080002)
Issuer: BOCI International Securities Limited


Executive Summary

The Power Equipment and New Energy sector demonstrated resilience amidst broader market volatility during the third week of November 2025. While the overall sector index declined by 0.80%, outperforming the broader Shenzhen Component Index (-1.4%) and ChiNext Index (-3.01%), internal divergence was significant. The Lithium Battery sub-sector emerged as the clear leader with a 1.29% gain, driven by robust demand signals from the electric vehicle (EV) market and improving profitability in key material segments. Conversely, the Wind Power (-4.78%) and Photovoltaic (PV) (-3.05%) sectors faced headwinds related to price adjustments and inventory digestion, although structural improvements in industry discipline are underway.

Key Macro and Industry Developments:
1. NEV Milestone: In October 2025, New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales in China reached 1.715 million units, representing a 20% year-over-year (YoY) growth. Crucially, NEV market share exceeded 50% for the first time, marking a structural tipping point in automotive consumption. This trend is expected to sustain high growth in domestic EV sales through Q4 2025, directly bolstering demand for batteries and upstream materials.
2. PV Industry Discipline: The "Anti-Involution" (anti-excessive competition) initiative is progressing steadily under the guidance of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association. While short-term price pressures persist across the supply chain (silicon, wafers, cells), the focus is shifting towards quality and high-power modules. Policy support from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA) aims to establish a multi-level new energy consumption and regulation system by 2030, targeting the accommodation of over 200 GW of new annual renewable capacity.
3. Material Price Dynamics: A notable divergence is observed in battery materials. Lithium Hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) prices have surged significantly (+29.63% week-on-week), signaling a potential inflection point for profitability in the electrolyte segment. In contrast, PV silicon and wafer prices continue to face downward pressure due to oversupply, though stabilization efforts are evident among tier-1 manufacturers.
4. Emerging Technologies: Strategic developments in Solid-State Batteries (standardization underway), Hydrogen (commercial vehicle demonstrations in Chengdu), and Nuclear Fusion (significant tender releases by Hefei Institutes) provide long-term catalytic themes for investors.

Investment Stance:
We maintain an "Outperform" rating on the Power Equipment and New Energy sector. The investment logic is anchored in the sustained high景气度 (prosperity) of energy storage and EVs, the gradual repair of profit margins in the battery material chain, and the supply-side optimization in the PV sector. We recommend focusing on companies with strong competitive moats in lithium batteries, energy storage integration, and specific PV niches such as backsheet films, silicon materials, and BC (Back Contact) technology.


Key Takeaways

1. New Energy Vehicles (NEV): Structural Breakthrough and Demand Resilience

1.1 Market Performance: The 50% Inflection Point

The release of October 2025 data by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) marks a historic milestone for the Chinese automotive industry.
* Sales Volume: NEV sales reached 1.715 million units, a 20% YoY increase.
* Market Share: NEV penetration rate surpassed 50% for the first time. This indicates that NEVs have transitioned from a policy-driven niche to the mainstream consumer choice, fundamentally altering the competitive landscape of the auto industry.
* Outlook: With Q4 traditionally being the peak sales season, we anticipate that domestic NEV sales will maintain high growth rates throughout the remainder of 2025. This sustained volume growth provides a solid foundation for the upstream battery and material supply chains.

1.2 Battery Installation Trends: LFP Dominance Continues

Data from the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance reveals distinct trends in battery chemistry preferences for January-October 2025:
* Total Installations: Cumulative domestic power battery installations reached 578.0 GWh, up 42.4% YoY.
* Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP): Installed capacity of 470.2 GWh, accounting for 81.3% of the total. LFP installations grew by 59.7% YoY, reinforcing its dominance in the mass-market EV segment due to cost advantages and safety profiles.
* Ternary (NCM/NCA): Installed capacity of 107.7 GWh, representing 18.6% of the total. Ternary installations declined by 3.0% YoY, reflecting slower growth in the premium/high-performance segment relative to the mass market.

Implication: The continued expansion of LFP share benefits suppliers with strong cost control and scale in the LFP supply chain, including cathode material producers and phosphate-based precursor suppliers.

1.3 Technological Evolution: Solid-State Battery Standardization

The China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC) is currently drafting new national standards for solid-state batteries. A key definition emerging is the unification of "semi-solid-state batteries" under the term "Solid-Liquid Hybrid Batteries."
* Investment Angle: This standardization reduces ambiguity in the market and accelerates commercial validation. Investors should monitor companies involved in the verification and supply chain of solid-state battery materials (e.g., solid electrolytes, specialized anodes) and equipment manufacturers adapting to new production processes.

2. Power Battery Materials: Profitability Repair and Price Signals

2.1 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) Surge

The most significant price movement in the battery material sector this week was the sharp increase in LiPF6 prices, a critical component of electrolytes.
* Price Trend: Domestic LiPF6 prices rose from RMB 121,500/ton (Nov 7) to RMB 157,500/ton (Nov 14), a weekly increase of 29.63%. Since late September, prices have more than doubled from RMB 59,000/ton.
* Drivers: This surge is attributed to tight supply constraints, increased downstream demand from the EV peak season, and potentially restocking activities by electrolyte manufacturers.
* Profitability Impact: As LiPF6 prices rise, electrolyte manufacturers with integrated supply chains or long-term contracts are likely to see margin expansion. This suggests a potential turnaround in profitability for the electrolyte segment, which has been under pressure due to previous oversupply.

2.2 Other Material Price Movements

  • Lithium Carbonate: Prices continued their upward trajectory. Battery-grade lithium carbonate reached RMB 81,500/ton (+3.16% WoW), while industrial-grade reached RMB 79,500/ton (+3.25% WoW). This stabilizes cost bases for cathode producers and supports asset valuations for lithium resource holders.
  • Cathode Materials:
    • NCM523: RMB 147,500/ton (+0.68% WoW).
    • NCM811: RMB 165,500/ton (+0.61% WoW).
    • LFP (Power Type): RMB 35,250/ton (+1.44% WoW).
    • Analysis: Cathode prices are rising modestly, largely passing through higher lithium costs. The stability in pricing indicates a balanced supply-demand dynamic compared to the volatile periods of 2023-2024.
  • Anode Materials: Prices remained stable. Mid-end artificial graphite held at RMB 31,700/ton, and high-end power graphite at RMB 48,300/ton. The lack of price movement suggests intense competition persists, with volume rather than price driving revenue.
  • Separators: Wet-process base film (9μm) stabilized at RMB 0.7625/sqm. Dry-process (16μm) remained at RMB 0.425/sqm. The separator market appears to have bottomed out, with leading firms maintaining price discipline.

Table 1: Recent Price Trends in Key Lithium Battery Materials

Product Category Specific Item Unit 2025/11/07 2025/11/14 WoW Change (%) Trend
Electrolyte LiPF6 (Domestic) RMB '000/ton 121.5 157.5 +29.63% 📈 Strong Up
Lithium Salt Battery Grade Li2CO3 RMB '000/ton 79.0 81.5 +3.16% 📈 Up
Cathode LFP (Power) RMB '000/ton 34.75 35.25 +1.44% 📈 Up
Cathode NCM523 RMB '000/ton 146.5 147.5 +0.68% ➡️ Stable
Cathode NCM811 RMB '000/ton 164.5 165.5 +0.61% ➡️ Stable
Anode Mid-end Artificial RMB '000/ton 31.7 31.7 0.00% ➡️ Flat
Separator Wet Base Film (9μm) RMB/sqm 0.7625 0.7625 0.00% ➡️ Flat

Source: Xinluo Lithium, BOCI Securities

3. Photovoltaics (PV): Navigating the "Anti-Involution" Transition

3.1 Policy Framework: Enhancing Consumption and Integration

The NDRC and NEA jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Consumption and Regulation of New Energy."
* 2030 Target: Establish a coordinated, efficient, multi-level new energy consumption and regulation system.
* Capacity Goal: Ensure the grid can accommodate over 200 GW of new renewable energy capacity annually.
* Strategic Shift: New electricity demand will be primarily met by new renewable generation. This policy underscores the government's commitment to solving the curtailment issue, which is a major bottleneck for PV and wind growth. It implies significant future investments in grid infrastructure, energy storage, and flexible regulation technologies.

3.2 Supply Chain Price Analysis

A. Polysilicon: Stabilization Amidst Oversupply
* Current Status: Prices remain relatively stable but weak. Dense material prices range from RMB 47-52/kg, with top-tier manufacturers holding prices at RMB 51-53/kg. Granular silicon is priced at RMB 50-51/kg.
* Market Dynamics: Transaction volumes are low, dominated by deliveries from existing contracts. Buyers are cautious due to falling wafer and cell prices.
* "Anti-Involution" Impact: Discussions on government-backed stockpiling and production cuts are ongoing. However, the lack of detailed implementation rules means immediate price support is limited. Most manufacturers are choosing to hold inventory rather than engage in panic selling, expecting further production cuts in November.
* Outlook: Prices are expected to remain stable in November, with slight downward pressure on lower-quality grades. The key variable is whether major producers execute significant production cuts.

B. Wafers: Continued Downward Pressure
* Price Decline: Wafer prices continue to fall, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels.
* 183N Wafers: Mainstream average price dropped to RMB 1.30/piece, with some transactions as low as RMB 1.25/piece.
* 210RN Wafers: Contract prices remain around RMB 1.28-1.30/piece, but spot prices are under pressure.
* 210N Wafers: Average price shifted down to RMB 1.63/piece, with lows hitting RMB 1.60/piece.
* Operational Response: Wafer manufacturers are slowing shipment rhythms and considering load reductions. The mismatch between high inventory and sluggish downstream procurement limits any near-term price recovery.

C. Cells: Divergent Regional Demands
* Domestic Prices:
* 183N TOPCon: RMB 0.30/W. Prices are softening as Indian buyers shift sourcing to Southeast Asia ahead of the June 2026 ALCM policy implementation.
* 210RN TOPCon: RMB 0.28/W. Inventory is accumulating, and module makers are pushing for RMB 0.275/W, but cell makers are resisting.
* 210N TOPCon: RMB 0.295-0.30/W. Prices are slowly declining due to weakening domestic demand.
* Export Prices:
* Southeast Asia to US: Prices remain high (USD 0.10-0.12/W) due to tariff advantages, but volumes are dropping due to anti-dumping/countervailing duty (AD/CVD) risks involving Indonesia and Laos. These manufacturers are pivoting to the Indian market.
* China Direct Export: Weakening due to reduced demand from India and other markets absorbing local supply.

D. Modules: High-Power Premium and Global Pricing
* Domestic Market:
* TOPCon Centralized Projects: RMB 0.64-0.70/W.
* TOPCon Distributed Projects: RMB 0.66-0.70/W.
* High-Power Segment (700W+): Emerging demand for 700W+ modules in centralized procurement is driving a price premium. 210N module prices have risen to RMB 0.72-0.75/W for certain bids. This highlights the value of technological advancement in mitigating commodity price erosion.
* International Markets:
* Europe: Prices slightly increased to USD 0.084-0.088/W due to supply chain costs and VAT refund considerations (currently priced assuming 9% refund). BC module prices in Europe are falling due to inventory buildup.
* USA: Southeast Asian imports priced at USD 0.27-0.28/W. Distribution market prices exceed USD 0.30/W. The Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are causing supply chain restructuring and stricter compliance clauses in contracts.
* India: Non-DCR modules priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, facing local oversupply and competition.

Table 2: PV Main Chain Product Prices (Week Ending Nov 13, 2025)

Segment Product Unit Price (RMB/USD) WoW Change (%) Note
Polysilicon Dense Material RMB/kg 47 - 52 0.00% Stable, low volume
Wafer 183N (130μm) RMB/piece 1.30 -3.70% Downward trend
Wafer 210N (130μm) RMB/piece 1.63 -2.98% Weak demand
Cell 183N TOPCon RMB/W 0.30 -1.64% Softening
Cell 210RN TOPCon RMB/W 0.28 +1.79%* *Avg fluctuation, weak vol
Module 182 TOPCon (China) RMB/W 0.693 0.00% Stable
Module 210 HJT (China) RMB/W 0.83 0.00% Premium tech
Module TOPCon (Europe) USD/W 0.086 0.00% Slight uptrend
Module TOPCon (USA) USD/W 0.27 0.00% High barrier

Source: InfoLink Consulting, BOCI Securities

3.3 Auxiliary Materials

  • EVA Particles: Prices stable at RMB 10,800/ton. Market is in a stalemate with weak demand offsetting supply constraints from maintenance.
  • POE Films: Stable at RMB 8.19/sqm.
  • Aluminum Frames: Prices rose 1.1% to RMB 21,523/ton due to strong demand resilience and logistics constraints.
  • Photovoltaic Glass: Prices unchanged (3.2mm coated at RMB 20/sqm). Manufacturers are holding prices despite weak downstream demand, leading to a standoff.

Investment Implication for PV:
The "Anti-Involution" narrative is the core investment theme. While prices are still adjusting, the policy push for consumption and the industry's move towards high-efficiency products (700W+ modules, BC technology) create differentiation. We favor companies with:
1. Strong Balance Sheets: To survive the consolidation phase.
2. Technological Leadership: In BC cells, high-power modules, and advanced metallization.
3. Integrated Supply Chains: Especially in silicon and films, where margins are better protected.

4. Wind Power: Steady Growth and Offshore Focus

  • Demand Outlook: We expect China's wind power demand to maintain continuous growth. The policy emphasis on new energy consumption supports wind integration.
  • Sector Performance: The wind sector index fell 4.78% this week, likely due to broader market rotation and short-term sentiment rather than fundamental deterioration.
  • Investment Focus:
    • Wind Turbines: Leaders with strong order books and overseas expansion capabilities.
    • Offshore Wind: Higher growth potential due to coastal provinces' ambitious targets and technological advancements in larger turbines and floating platforms.

5. Energy Storage: High Prosperity and Price Increases

  • Market Status: Demand remains highly robust. Both energy storage cells and system integration are in a price increase channel.
  • Policy Support: The NEA's "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Development of New Energy" emphasizes optimizing storage ratios and promoting integration. This mandates storage attachment for new renewable projects, securing demand visibility.
  • Investment Focus:
    • Storage Cells: Manufacturers with cost advantages and large-scale production capabilities.
    • Large-Scale Integration: Companies capable of delivering turnkey solutions for utility-scale projects, benefiting from the "optimization of storage ratio" policy.

6. Emerging Themes: Hydrogen and Nuclear Fusion

6.1 Hydrogen: Green Fuel Premium

  • Development: Chengdu launched the second batch of its 2025 Hydrogen Commercial Vehicle Demonstration Project, applying for 500 vehicles.
  • Logic: Electrification is expanding into heavy-duty transport via hydrogen. The "Green Electricity -> Green Hydrogen -> Green Fuel" value chain is maturing. In the early stages, green fuels may command a premium.
  • Investment Focus: Hydrogen equipment manufacturers (electrolyzers, fuel cells) and operators of green fuel projects.

6.2 Nuclear Fusion: Long-Term Catalyst

  • Event: The Institute of Plasma Physics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, released tenders totaling RMB 1.3 billion.
  • Significance: While commercial fusion is decades away, current R&D spending drives demand for specialized high-end equipment, particularly fusion power supplies, superconducting magnets, and vacuum systems.
  • Investment Focus: Core suppliers of fusion power supply systems and specialized components.

Company Highlights & Corporate Actions

This week saw significant corporate announcements that reflect strategic expansions and financial positioning within the sector.

1. Canadian Solar (Artesian Group)

  • Guidance: The controlling shareholder, Canadian Solar Group, projected Q4 2025 total revenue between USD 1.3 - 1.5 billion, with a gross margin of 14% - 16%.
  • Analysis: This guidance suggests a stabilization in profitability for the module segment, aligning with our view that high-power products and disciplined pricing are supporting margins despite broader price wars.

2. Shangtai Technology

  • CapEx Expansion: Announced a plan to invest RMB 4.07 billion in a new project with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons of lithium-ion battery anode materials.
  • Financing: Its application for a convertible bond issuance of up to RMB 1.734 billion was approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • Analysis: Aggressive expansion in anode capacity indicates confidence in long-term EV demand. However, investors should monitor utilization rates given the current stable/anode price environment.

3. Ganfeng Lithium

  • Project Milestone: The Phase I of its PPGS Lithium Salt Lake project obtained the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report.
  • Resources: The project holds proven and controlled resources of approximately 15.07 million tons LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent).
  • Analysis: This reinforces Ganfeng's upstream resource security, crucial for maintaining cost competitiveness as lithium prices stabilize around RMB 80,000/ton.

4. Hyperstrong (Haibochuang)

  • Strategic Partnership: Signed a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL.
  • Commitment: Hyperstrong commits to purchasing no less than 200 GWh of battery cells from CATL cumulatively from 2026 to 2028.
  • Analysis: This locks in supply for a major energy storage integrator and secures volume for CATL. It highlights the trend of vertical collaboration between cell makers and system integrators to ensure supply chain stability and cost efficiency.

5. Putailai

  • Investment: Planned to inject RMB 760 million of self-owned funds into its subsidiary, Sichuan Zhuoqin New Material Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Project: Construction of the Base Film Coating Integration Project (Phase II, Sub-project II). Total investment is RMB 2.5 billion.
  • Capacity: Upon completion, it will add 2 billion sqm/year of base film capacity and 3 billion sqm/year of coating capacity.
  • Analysis: Vertical integration into base film production enhances Putailai's cost control and margin potential in the separator business, a key competitive advantage in a maturing market.

6. Camel Group

  • Shareholder Action: Chairman Liu Changlai plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 7.2 million shares.
  • Note: Investors should monitor this for short-term sentiment impact, though it does not alter the company's operational fundamentals.

Table 3: Valuation Table of Mentioned Companies

Code Company Rating Price (RMB) Market Cap (RMB bn) EPS 2024A EPS 2025E PE 2024A PE 2025E PB (Latest)
603659.SH Putailai Overweight 30.32 64.78 0.56 1.14 54.42 26.60 3.28
001301.SZ Shangtai Tech Overweight 101.00 26.34 3.21 3.85 31.44 26.23 3.90
002460.SZ Ganfeng Lithium Not Rated 68.89 134.55 (1.03) 0.17 N/A 405.24 3.41
688411.SH Hyperstrong Not Rated 379.00 68.26 4.86 5.19 77.98 73.03 15.23
688472.SH Canadian Solar Not Rated 20.31 74.91 0.61 0.46 33.33 44.15 3.19

Source: iFinD, BOCI Securities. Note: Prices as of Nov 14, 2025. Unrated companies use iFinD consensus estimates.


Risks / Headwinds

Investors should carefully consider the following risks, which could materially impact the sector's performance and individual company valuations:

1. Excessive Price Competition

  • PV & Battery Chains: Despite "anti-involution" efforts, the mid-stream manufacturing sectors of both photovoltaics and power batteries face significant overcapacity. If price wars intensify beyond expectations, it will erode gross margins and profitability for manufacturers.
  • Equipment & EPC: Competitive bidding for power equipment and new energy station EPC contracts may lead to lower-than-expected returns.

2. International Trade Frictions

  • Export Dependence: Chinese PV, lithium battery, and wind component manufacturers rely heavily on overseas markets for revenue growth.
  • Tariff & Policy Risks: Escalation of trade barriers (e.g., US tariffs, EU anti-subsidy investigations, India's ALMM/BCD policies) could restrict market access, force supply chain relocation, or impose punitive duties, negatively affecting sales volumes and margins. The recent shifts in Southeast Asian export dynamics to the US highlight this vulnerability.

3. Slower Investment Growth

  • Grid & Power Investment: The demand for new energy generation and power equipment is directly tied to utility capital expenditure. If grid connection approvals slow down or if power generation investment growth decelerates due to macroeconomic factors or profitability concerns, it will dampen demand for the entire sector.

4. Policy Misses

  • Sensitivity: The NEV, renewable energy, and hydrogen sectors are highly policy-dependent. Delays in subsidy disbursements, changes in feed-in tariffs, or weaker-than-expected implementation of consumption mandates (e.g., storage ratios) could adversely affect industry fundamentals.

5. Raw Material Price Volatility

  • Cost Pressure: Manufacturing constitutes the bulk of these industries. Significant fluctuations in upstream raw material prices (e.g., lithium, nickel, cobalt, polysilicon, silver) can disrupt cost structures. While recent trends show stabilization, unexpected spikes or crashes can impair inventory valuation and margin predictability.

6. Technology Iteration Risk

  • Disruption: Rapid technological changes in lithium batteries (e.g., solid-state), PV (e.g., BC, HJT, Perovskite), and hydrogen could render existing production lines obsolete. Companies failing to keep pace with R&D or betting on the wrong technical route may face significant asset impairment and loss of market share.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Overall Sector Rating: Outperform (Stronger than Market)

We maintain our positive outlook on the Power Equipment and New Energy sector for the next 6-12 months. The rationale is based on a combination of cyclical recovery in specific sub-sectors and structural growth drivers.

Sub-Sector Outlooks:

  1. Lithium Batteries & NEV Chain: Positive

    • Driver: The crossing of the 50% NEV market share threshold confirms secular growth. Q4 seasonality and the surge in LiPF6 prices indicate improving supply-demand balance and margin repair.
    • Focus: Leading battery makers, LFP material suppliers, and companies benefiting from solid-state battery advancements.
  2. Photovoltaics: Neutral to Positive (Selective)

    • Driver: The "Anti-Involution" policy is a long-term positive for industry health, but short-term pain from price adjustments and inventory clearance persists. The shift towards high-power modules offers a pocket of resilience.
    • Focus: Companies with strong balance sheets, integrated silicon/film capabilities, and leadership in BC/HJT technologies. Avoid pure-play commoditized assembly players.
  3. Energy Storage: Positive

    • Driver: Policy-mandated storage ratios and the economic viability of independent storage projects are driving high demand. Price increases in cells and integration suggest a seller's market emerging in high-quality segments.
    • Focus: Top-tier cell manufacturers and large-scale system integrators with strong project execution capabilities.
  4. Wind Power: Positive

    • Driver: Consistent demand growth, particularly in offshore wind.
    • Focus: Turbine OEMs with offshore expertise and key component suppliers.
  5. Hydrogen & Nuclear Fusion: Speculative/Long-Term

    • Driver: Early-stage commercialization and government R&D funding.
    • Focus: Equipment suppliers and pilot project operators. These are longer-duration plays with higher volatility.

Investment View

Core Investment Logic

The Power Equipment and New Energy sector is transitioning from a phase of indiscriminate expansion to one of quality-driven consolidation and technological differentiation. The investment opportunity lies in identifying companies that can navigate the current supply-side adjustments while capturing the upside from structural demand growth.

1. The "Volume x Margin" Recovery in Batteries

The NEV market's achievement of >50% penetration is not just a statistical milestone; it represents a fundamental shift in cost curves and consumer acceptance.
* Strategy: Invest in the battery material supply chain where pricing power is returning. The sharp rise in LiPF6 prices is a leading indicator that the worst of the margin compression is over for electrolytes. Similarly, LFP's dominance favors scaled producers.
* Key Picks: Look for companies like Shangtai Technology (expanding anode capacity with financing secured) and Putailai (vertical integration in separators) which are strengthening their cost positions. Ganfeng Lithium offers exposure to the stabilizing lithium resource market.

2. PV's "Survival of the Fittest" and Tech Premium

The PV sector is undergoing a painful but necessary cleansing. The "Anti-Involution" stance by the association and government signals that unchecked capacity expansion will be curbed.
* Strategy: Avoid generic module assemblers. Focus on:
* Technology Leaders: Companies producing 700W+ modules and BC (Back Contact) cells, which are commanding price premiums and seeing stronger demand in centralized procurement.
* Integrated Players: Firms with control over silicon and films (e.g., Canadian Solar's stable margin guidance) are better insulated from upstream volatility.
* Offshore/Export Resilience: Companies with diversified global footprints that can navigate trade barriers (e.g., localized production or non-China supply chains for US/EU markets).

3. Energy Storage as the Growth Engine

With the NEA mandating optimized storage ratios, energy storage is becoming a non-discretionary part of new renewable projects.
* Strategy: The sector is seeing price increases, indicating strong demand. Invest in large-scale integrators like Hyperstrong, which has secured a massive 200 GWh supply deal with CATL, ensuring both supply security and scale. This partnership model (Integrator + Cell Maker) is likely to become the industry standard.

4. Thematic Bets: Hydrogen & Fusion

For investors with a longer time horizon and higher risk tolerance, the emerging themes of Hydrogen and Nuclear Fusion offer optionality.
* Strategy: Monitor the progress of hydrogen commercial vehicle demos (e.g., Chengdu's 500-vehicle program) and the supply chain for nuclear fusion R&D (e.g., power supply vendors for Hefei Institutes). These are not yet earnings-driven but are catalyst-rich.

Recommended Portfolio Allocation

Sub-Sector Allocation Bias Key Drivers Representative Tickers (Examples)
Lithium Batteries Overweight NEV >50% share, LiPF6 price hike, LFP dominance CATL (Unlisted in table), Putailai, Shangtai Tech
Energy Storage Overweight Policy mandates, Price increases, High demand Hyperstrong, Sungrow (Not in table)
Photovoltaics Neutral/Selective Anti-involution, High-power premium, Consolidation Canadian Solar, JinkoSolar (Not in table)
Wind Power Neutral Steady growth, Offshore potential Goldwind (Not in table)
Hydrogen/Fusion Underweight/Speculative Early stage, R&D driven Equipment suppliers

Conclusion

The week of November 16, 2025, reinforces our view that the Power Equipment and New Energy sector is bifurcating. The NEV and Battery chains are entering a healthier phase of profitable growth, supported by record market share and improving material prices. The PV sector is in a transitional period where policy intervention is beginning to stabilize the market, rewarding technological leaders and integrated players. Energy Storage remains a high-growth bright spot.

We advise institutional investors to rotate towards quality and integration. Favor companies with strong balance sheets, vertical integration, and technological moats (such as BC technology or solid-state R&D). Be cautious of pure-play manufacturers in oversupplied commoditized segments without cost advantages. The long-term trajectory towards carbon neutrality remains intact, and the current consolidation phase presents attractive entry points for market leaders.


Appendix: Detailed Data Tables

A. Weekly Market Performance (Nov 10 - Nov 14, 2025)

Index/Sector Closing Value Weekly Change (%) Relative Performance
Shanghai Composite 3,990.49 -0.18% Benchmark
Shenzhen Component 13,216.03 -1.40% Underperform
ChiNext 3,111.51 -3.01% Underperform
Power Equipment & New Energy 10,749.97 -0.80% Outperform vs SZ/ChiNext
-- Lithium Battery Index - +1.29% Best Performer
-- NEV Index - -0.82% Inline
-- Nuclear Power - -1.19% Underperform
-- Power Generation Equip - -2.81% Underperform
-- Photovoltaic - -3.05% Underperform
-- Industrial Automation - -3.61% Underperform
-- Wind Power - -4.78% Worst Performer

Top Gainers: Shida Shenghua (+43.44%), Fangyuan Shares (+34.59%), Yongtai Tech (+33.89%).
Top Losers: Liangxin Shares (-16.74%), Jinpan Tech (-15.9%), Megmeet (-15.87%).

B. PV Auxiliary Material Prices (Week Ending Nov 13, 2025)

Material Product Unit Price WoW Change (%)
Particles EVA RMB/ton 10,800 0.00%
Transparent EVA RMB/sqm 5.80 -4.29%
Films White EVA RMB/sqm 6.30 -3.96%
POE RMB/sqm 8.19 0.00%
Backsheet PET RMB/ton 5,591 +0.47%
Frame Aluminum RMB/ton 21,523 +1.11%
Cable Electrolytic Copper RMB/ton 86,294 -0.91%
Mounting Hot Rolled Coil RMB/ton 3,285 -1.29%
Silver Paste Silver RMB/kg 11,602 +2.10%
Back Silver Paste RMB/kg 7,421 +2.01%
Front Busbar Paste RMB/kg 11,117 +2.02%
Front Fine Grid Paste RMB/kg 11,167 +2.01%
Target Indium RMB/kg 2,505 0.00%
Glass 3.2mm Coated RMB/sqm 20.00 0.00%
2.0mm Coated RMB/sqm 13.00 0.00%

Source: Sobue Consulting, BOCI Securities

C. Important Industry Policies & Events Summary

Sector Date/Source Event/Policy Impact/Implication
NEV Nov 2025 / CAAM Oct NEV sales 1.715M units, >50% share. Confirms mass adoption; bullish for battery demand.
Battery Nov 2025 / CABIA Jan-Oct installations 578 GWh (+42.4%). LFP 81.3% share. LFP supply chain beneficiaries; Ternary lagging.
Battery Nov 2025 / CATARC Drafting Solid-State Battery National Standard. Clarifies "Solid-Liquid Hybrid" definition; accelerates commercialization.
PV/Wind Nov 2025 / NDRC/NEA "Guiding Opinions on New Energy Consumption." Targets 200GW+ annual accommodation; bullish for grid/storage.
PV Nov 2025 / CPIA "Anti-Involution" work progressing. Supply side discipline; potential for price stabilization.
Hydrogen Nov 2025 / Chengdu Gov 2nd Batch of 500 Hydrogen Commercial Vehicles. Boosts hydrogen equipment and fuel demand.
Storage Nov 2025 / NEA "Guiding Opinions on Integrated Development." Optimizes storage ratios; secures demand for integrators.
Fusion Nov 2025 / Hefei Inst. RMB 1.3 Billion Tender Release. Short-term revenue for power supply/equipment vendors.

Analyst Certification & Disclosure

Analyst Certification:
The analysts, Jiaxiong Wu and Yang Li, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject securities or issuers. They also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Important Disclosures:
* BOCI International Securities Limited holds relevant licenses for securities investment consulting.
* This report is intended for institutional clients who are capable of understanding and bearing the risks associated with securities investments.
* Conflict of Interest: The analysts declare that they do not hold any positions in the companies mentioned that would compromise their objectivity, nor have they received any compensation from these companies for this report.
* Rating Definitions:
* Outperform (Stronger than Market): Expected to outperform the benchmark index by >10% in the next 6-12 months.
* Neutral: Expected to perform in line with the benchmark index (-10% to +10%).
* Underperform: Expected to underperform the benchmark index by >10%.

Risk Warning:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but BOCI Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Investors should make their own independent decisions and consult with professional advisors before investing.


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