Photovoltaic Industry Weekly Report: Policy Tailwinds Accelerate Demand Recovery; Supply-Side Rationalization Deepens

Date: November 15, 2025
Sector: Renewable Energy / Photovoltaics (PV)
Rating: Overweight (Maintained)
Analyst: Yang Shuaibo (SAC No. S1340524070002)
Source: China Post Securities Research Institute

Executive Summary

The Chinese photovoltaic (PV) industry is undergoing a pivotal structural transformation, driven by the convergence of aggressive supply-side discipline and robust policy support for demand expansion. Following China’s formal submission of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) on November 3, 2025, targeting the 2035 horizon, we observe a rapid succession of配套 (supporting) policies aimed at resolving grid integration bottlenecks and accelerating the consumption of large-scale renewable energy bases. This policy momentum, combined with sustained "anti-involution" measures on the supply side, significantly reduces the uncertainty surrounding future demand, creating a notable positive expectation gap for 2026.

Despite a seasonal slowdown in September installations following the rush-to-install period triggered by Document No. 136 earlier in the year, the fundamental trajectory remains strong. Year-to-date (YTD) installations through September 2025 reached 240.3 GW, representing a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 49.3%, with a high utilization rate of 95%. We project full-year 2025 installations to reach approximately 300 GW, with wind and solar power accounting for over 20% of total electricity generation.

From a valuation and investment perspective, the sector presents an attractive risk-reward profile. The supply chain is witnessing a stabilization of prices, particularly in polysilicon, while module prices remain differentiated but stable. Integrated module manufacturers with strong balance sheets and technological leadership are best positioned to capture the upside from the anticipated demand acceleration. We maintain an Overweight rating on the PV sector and recommend focusing on leading integrated component manufacturers, specifically LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH) and JinkoSolar (688223.SH), as primary beneficiaries of this cyclical upturn.

Key Takeaways

1. Policy Catalyst: NDC 3.0 Submission Anchors Long-Term Demand Visibility

The most significant development in the recent reporting period is China’s submission of its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This action underscores China’s commitment as a decisive actor in the global energy transition.

• Strategic Implication: The submission is not merely a diplomatic gesture but a domestic policy directive. It signals that the government will prioritize the removal of structural barriers to renewable energy adoption, particularly concerning grid absorption and market mechanisms.
• Policy Cascade: Since the submission, several key regulatory documents have been released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA):
  • "Guiding Opinions on Promoting New Energy Consumption and Regulation" (Nov 10, 2025): Sets a clear target to meet the reasonable consumption needs of more than 200 GW of new renewable energy capacity annually by 2030. By 2035, a new power system adapted to high proportions of new energy will be basically built, supporting the national autonomous contribution goals.
  • "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Integrated and Fusion Development of New Energy" (Nov 12, 2025): Emphasizes that by 2030, integrated development will become a major mode of new energy growth. This suggests a shift from standalone PV projects to hybrid systems (PV + Storage, PV + Wind, PV + Hydrogen), which enhances grid stability and value realization.
  • "Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of Private Investment" (Nov 10, 2025): Explicitly encourages private capital participation in cross-province and cross-region DC transmission channels. This is crucial for unlocking the potential of large-scale bases in western China, where resource abundance has historically been constrained by transmission limits.

Investment Insight: These policies directly address the "Impossible Trinity" of energy (security, affordability, sustainability) by leveraging fusion and integration to reduce grid shock. For investors, this implies that the bottleneck for PV growth is shifting from policy permission to grid infrastructure execution. Companies involved in system safety, grid-forming inverters, and large-base EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) stand to benefit disproportionately.

2. Supply-Side Rationalization: "Anti-Involution" Measures Gain Traction

The narrative of excessive competition ("involution") within the PV supply chain is being actively countered by both market forces and regulatory guidance.

• Production Cuts & Price Stabilization: Major polysilicon manufacturers have visibly reduced production volumes in November. This strategic contraction, coupled with a strong willingness to defend price floors, has stabilized polysilicon prices. While the specific execution plan for government-backed stockpiling or purchase programs requires further discussion, the market sentiment has shifted from panic selling to cautious观望 (wait-and-see), resulting in short-term price stability.
• Industry Consolidation: The persistent low-price environment has forced weaker players out of the market or into dormancy. The "anti-involution" policy framework supports healthy competition based on technology and efficiency rather than predatory pricing. This leads to an optimization of the competitive landscape, improving the long-term profitability prospects for tier-1 manufacturers.
• Expectation Gap: There is a growing divergence between market pessimism regarding oversupply and the reality of tightening supply due to voluntary and involuntary cuts. As demand picks up in 2026, this supply constraint could lead to sharper-than-expected price recoveries in key segments, particularly high-efficiency N-type cells and modules.

3. Demand Dynamics: Strong YTD Performance Despite Seasonal Dip

• Installation Data:
  • Jan-Sep 2025 Cumulative: 240.3 GW, +49.3% YoY.
  • September 2025 Monthly: 9.7 GW, -53.8% YoY.
  • Context: The sharp decline in September is largely attributable to the base effect of the "rush-to-install" phenomenon in April-May 2025, driven by the deadline associated with Document No. 136 (May 31 cutoff). This was a temporal shift in demand rather than a structural deterioration.
• Full-Year Outlook: We maintain our forecast of 300 GW for total 2025 installations. The resilience of demand is evident in the YTD figures. The adaptation to the new mechanism-based electricity pricing models is progressing, allowing for more sustainable project economics without relying solely on subsidies or fixed feed-in tariffs.
• Grid Absorption: The national PV utilization rate stands at a healthy 95%. This indicates that despite the massive influx of new capacity, the grid has managed to absorb the majority of generated power, thanks to improved forecasting, flexible dispatch, and increased storage deployment.

4. Price Trends: Stabilization Amidst Differentiation

The PV supply chain prices exhibit mixed trends, reflecting the varying degrees of supply-demand balance across segments.

Polysilicon

• Status: Stable.
• Price: Dense material averages ~RMB 52/kg (Range: 47-55 RMB/kg).
• Driver: Production cuts by mainstream manufacturers are effectively balancing the market. The market is awaiting clearer details on potential state-led inventory management policies.

Wafers

• Status: Weak/Declining.
• Price: N-type 182mm wafers average ~RMB 1.35/piece; 210mm wafers average ~RMB 1.68/piece (-1.2% WoW).
• Driver: Downstream demand softness in the immediate term has pressured wafer prices. HJT-specific wafers also saw slight declines alongside standard large-size formats. We expect wafer prices to remain range-bound at low levels in the near term.

Cells

• Status: Slow Decline.
• Prices (RMB/W):
  • 183N TOPCon: ~0.305 (Range: 0.30-0.305)
  • 210RN TOPCon: ~0.28 (Range: 0.28-0.285)
  • 210N TOPCon: ~0.30 (Range: 0.295-0.30)
• Driver: As wafer costs decrease, cell prices follow suit, but the decline is gradual. Manufacturers are attempting to maintain margins, but competitive pressure persists.

Modules

• Status: Stable with Increased Differentiation.
• Prices (RMB/W):
  • Integrated Tier-1 High-Power Modules: 0.70 - 0.73 RMB/W.
  • Market Low-End Modules: Significant volume still exists at lower price points, indicating a bifurcated market.
  • TOPCon Centralized Projects: Avg ~0.685 RMB/W.
  • TOPCon Distributed Projects: Avg ~0.70 RMB/W.
  • BC (Back Contact) Modules: Premium pricing observed, averaging ~0.76-0.80 RMB/W.
• Outlook: We expect module prices to remain stable in Q4 2025. The differentiation between high-efficiency, reliable tier-1 products and commoditized lower-tier products is widening, benefiting brands with strong bankability and technical superiority.

Profitability Analysis (TopCon vs. HJT)

Note: Data sourced from Solarzoom. HJT currently faces margin pressure at the module level despite positive cell margins, largely due to higher non-silicon costs and lower economies of scale compared to the mature TOPCon ecosystem. TOPCon modules have achieved slight profitability improvement (+0.004 RMB/W WoW).

5. Stock Performance Review (Week Ending Nov 15, 2025)

The equity market reaction to the recent policy announcements has been mixed, with significant divergence across sub-sectors.

• Outperformers:

  • Zhonglai Shares (300393.SZ): +32.8%. Likely driven by specific company news or niche technology breakthroughs.
  • Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ): +31.7%. Benefiting from the focus on grid integration and storage/inverter demand.
  • Hongyuan Green Energy (603185.SH): +15.2%. Wafer segment rebound.
  • TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ): +8.4%. Wafer leader seeing stabilization.
  • Yuneng Technology (688348.SH): +11.8%. Microinverter segment showing resilience.

• Underperformers:

  • Keshida (002518.SZ): -14.4%. Inverter/UPS sector facing headwinds.
  • TBEA (600089.SH): -10.7%. Despite its diversified portfolio, polysilicon exposure may weigh on sentiment amidst price uncertainty.
  • Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ): -8.0%. Profit-taking or broader market rotation away from large-cap inverters.
  • Trina Solar (600599.SH/688599.SH): -5.9%. Module sector consolidation pressures.

• Integrated Module Leaders:

  • LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH): -2.5%. Trading at RMB 21.9. Market cap ~RMB 165.8 billion.
  • JinkoSolar (688223.SH): -0.6%. Trading at RMB 6.3. Market cap ~RMB 62.7 billion.
  • JA Solar (002459.SZ): -1.3%. Trading at RMB 14.5.

The relative stability of LONGi and JinkoSolar compared to the broader decline in some peers suggests investor confidence in their ability to navigate the cycle, supported by the "anti-involution" narrative.

Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook is constructive, institutional investors must remain cognizant of the following risks:

1. Geopolitical and Policy Volatility

• International Trade Barriers: The PV industry is highly globalized. Any escalation in trade restrictions (tariffs, anti-dumping duties, or supply chain exclusions) by the US, EU, or India could disrupt export channels for Chinese manufacturers. Although domestic demand is strengthening, exports remain a critical profit driver for tier-1 companies.
• Domestic Policy Execution Lag: While the central government has issued guiding opinions, the actual implementation at the provincial and grid-company level may face delays. Bureaucratic hurdles in approving new transmission lines or storage mandates could slow down the realized demand for large-base projects.

2. Demand Undershoot

• Macroeconomic Sensitivity: Downstream demand for distributed PV (C&I and residential) is sensitive to interest rates and local economic conditions. A slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery in China or globally could dampen private investment in renewable projects.
• Grid Connection Bottlenecks: If the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission lines and local grid upgrades lags behind PV installation rates, curtailment rates could rise above the current 5% threshold, negatively impacting project IRRs and subsequent installation appetite.

3. Technological Disruption and Execution Risk

• Technology Route Uncertainty: The industry is currently transitioning from P-type to N-type (TOPCon/HJT/BC). While TOPCon is dominant, rapid advancements in HJT efficiency or the commercialization of Perovskite tandem cells could render existing capacity obsolete faster than anticipated. Companies heavily invested in one technology face stranded asset risks if the market shifts decisively to another.
• R&D Failure: New product launches may fail to meet yield or reliability targets, leading to cost overruns and loss of market share.

4. Supply Chain Price Volatility

• Raw Material Fluctuations: Although polysilicon prices are currently stable, any unexpected supply disruptions (e.g., maintenance issues, energy constraints in producing regions) or demand spikes could cause price volatility. Conversely, if "anti-involution" measures fail and price wars resume, margins across the entire chain could collapse again.
• Auxiliary Materials: Prices of silver paste, glass, and EVA/POE films also impact module costs. Inflation in these inputs could squeeze manufacturer margins if module prices cannot be passed through to developers.

5. Intensified Competition

• New Entrants & Cross-Industry Players: Despite consolidation, the allure of the energy transition continues to attract new capital. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and traditional energy giants are vertically integrating into manufacturing, potentially distorting market dynamics with non-commercial objectives.
• Capacity Overhang: Even with current cuts, the total nameplate capacity in China far exceeds global demand. If demand growth slows, the latent overcapacity could re-emerge as a primary pressure point, forcing further price declines.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Rating: Overweight (Stronger than Market)

We maintain our Overweight rating on the Photovoltaic sector. The combination of policy clarity (NDC 3.0), supply-side discipline, and resilient demand fundamentals creates a favorable environment for sector re-rating.

Investment Thesis Recap

1. Policy Put Option: The Chinese government’s explicit commitment to the 2035 NDC targets acts as a "put option" on demand. The subsequent release of detailed implementation guidelines confirms that the state will actively facilitate the absorption of renewable energy, de-risking the investment case for large-scale projects.
2. Supply Clearing: The "anti-involution" campaign is working. Production cuts are real, and price stabilization is evident. This marks the bottoming process of the cycle. The expectation gap for 2026 is positive, as the market has not fully priced in the speed of demand recovery and supply tightening.
3. Valuation Appeal: Many leading PV stocks are trading at historically low valuations relative to their long-term earnings potential. With EPS expected to turn positive or improve significantly in 2026 (see forecasts below), the current price levels offer an attractive entry point for long-term institutional capital.

Recommended Focus: Integrated Module Manufacturers

We specifically highlight Integrated Component (Module) Manufacturers as the preferred sub-sector.
* Reasoning: Integrated players have better control over costs and quality across the value chain. In a market differentiating between high-quality and commoditized products, brand value, bankability, and technological leadership (e.g., in TOPCon and BC technologies) command a premium. They are also the direct beneficiaries of the accelerated rollout of large bases and distributed projects.

Investment View & Company Analysis

Based on the current landscape, we recommend focusing on industry leaders with strong balance sheets, advanced technology portfolios, and global distribution networks. Below is a detailed analysis of key covered companies, incorporating financial forecasts and strategic positioning.

1. LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (601012.SH)

• Investment Rating: Unrated (Consensus Estimates Used)
• Current Price: RMB 21.90
• Market Cap: RMB 165.81 Billion
• Core Logic:
  • Technology Leadership: LONGi remains a bellwether in the industry, with significant R&D investments in BC (Back Contact) technology and HJT. Its recent focus on HPBC (Hybrid Passivated Back Contact) modules positions it well for the premium distributed and high-efficiency centralized markets.
  • Vertical Integration: As a fully integrated player (Silicon Wafer -> Cell -> Module), LONGi can optimize costs internally. Although wafer margins are under pressure, the company’s scale allows it to withstand short-term volatility better than smaller peers.
  • Global Brand: LONGi has one of the strongest global brands, ensuring access to higher-margin overseas markets despite trade barriers.
• Financial Outlook:
  • 2025E EPS: -RMB 0.50 (Reflecting current cycle trough and inventory write-downs).
  • 2026E EPS: RMB 0.40 (Anticipated recovery as prices stabilize and demand grows).
  • 2026E PE: ~51x. While the P/E appears high, it is based on a normalized earnings recovery from a loss-making base. Investors should look at P/B and EV/Sales metrics as well, which are more indicative of the bottoming cycle.
• Risk: Slower adoption of BC technology; continued wafer price erosion.

2. JinkoSolar Co., Ltd. (688223.SH)

• Investment Rating: Unrated (Consensus Estimates Used)
• Current Price: RMB 6.30
• Market Cap: RMB 62.73 Billion
• Core Logic:
  • TOPCon Pioneer: JinkoSolar was an early mover in mass-producing N-type TOPCon modules, giving it a first-mover advantage in efficiency and cost reduction. It consistently ranks among the top global shippers.
  • Cost Competitiveness: The company has demonstrated superior non-silicon cost control, allowing it to maintain positive gross margins even in a challenging price environment.
  • Demand Resilience: Strong order book visibility into 2026, supported by both domestic large-base projects and international tenders.
• Financial Outlook:
  • 2025E EPS: -RMB 0.30.
  • 2026E EPS: RMB 0.20.
  • 2026E PE: ~31x. Jinko offers a relatively lower valuation multiple compared to some peers, reflecting its efficient execution and potential for quicker earnings normalization.
• Risk: Intense competition in the TOPCon segment; geopolitical risks in key export markets like the US.

3. Canadian Solar Inc. / Arries Tech (688472.SH) - Note: Code 688472 refers to Arries/Canadian Solar's A-share listing

• Investment Rating: Unrated (Consensus Estimates Used)
• Current Price: RMB 20.30
• Market Cap: RMB 74.91 Billion
• Core Logic:
  • Global Diversification: Canadian Solar has a unique business model combining module manufacturing with a substantial global project development and IPP (Independent Power Producer) portfolio. This provides recurring revenue streams and higher margins from project sales, hedging against pure manufacturing cyclicality.
  • Energy Storage Synergy: The company is aggressively expanding its energy storage solutions (e-Storage), aligning perfectly with the policy push for "PV + Storage" integration.
• Financial Outlook:
  • 2025E EPS: RMB 0.50.
  • 2026E EPS: RMB 0.80.
  • 2025E PE: 44x; 2026E PE: 25x. The projected earnings growth is robust, and the forward P/E of 25x is attractive for a company with dual manufacturing and development engines.
• Risk: Project development risks (permitting, grid connection); currency fluctuation impacts.

4. Trina Solar Co., Ltd. (688599.SH)

• Investment Rating: Unrated (Consensus Estimates Used)
• Current Price: RMB 20.90
• Market Cap: RMB 45.55 Billion
• Core Logic:
  • Vertex Series Leadership: Trina’s Vertex series of large-format, high-power modules are highly regarded in utility-scale projects globally.
  • Integration Strategy: Like its peers, Trina is vertically integrated but has been particularly aggressive in promoting open ecosystem partnerships for tracking systems and mounting structures, enhancing its system-level value proposition.
• Financial Outlook:
  • 2025E EPS: -RMB 1.80.
  • 2026E EPS: RMB 0.70.
  • 2026E PE: 30x. The swing from a significant loss in 2025 to profitability in 2026 highlights the cyclical nature and the expected magnitude of the recovery.
• Risk: High leverage ratios; margin pressure in the module segment.

5. JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd. (002459.SZ)

• Investment Rating: Unrated (Consensus Estimates Used)
• Current Price: RMB 14.50
• Market Cap: RMB 47.92 Billion
• Core Logic:
  • Operational Efficiency: JA Solar is known for its prudent financial management and operational efficiency. It has maintained a strong presence in both domestic and international markets without excessive leverage.
  • N-Type Transition: The company has successfully transitioned its capacity to N-type TOPCon, ensuring its product portfolio remains competitive.
• Financial Outlook:
  • 2025E EPS: -RMB 1.10.
  • 2026E EPS: RMB 0.50.
  • 2026E PE: 27x. Offers a balanced risk-reward profile with a reasonable valuation multiple upon recovery.
• Risk: Dependence on external silicon supply (less integrated than LONGi/Jinko in upstream); competitive pricing pressure.

6. Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH)

• Investment Rating: Unrated (Consensus Estimates Used)
• Current Price: RMB 25.80
• Market Cap: RMB 115.97 Billion
• Core Logic:
  • Polysilicon Dominance: Tongwei is the global leader in polysilicon production, benefiting from the lowest cost curve. As the industry consolidates, Tongwei’s scale and cost advantages become even more pronounced.
  • Cell Capacity: It is also a major supplier of solar cells, providing a downstream outlet for its silicon.
  • Cycle Play: Tongwei is a pure play on the supply-side clearing. If polysilicon prices stabilize or rise due to production cuts, Tongwei’s earnings elasticity is highest.
• Financial Outlook:
  • 2025E EPS: -RMB 1.20.
  • 2026E EPS: RMB 0.60.
  • 2026E PE: 42x.
• Risk: High exposure to polysilicon price volatility; potential for prolonged oversupply in the silicon segment if demand does not accelerate as expected.

Comparative Valuation Table

The table below summarizes the key financial metrics and valuation multiples for the重点 (key) companies discussed. Note that 2025 estimates reflect the trough of the cycle, with many companies posting negative EPS due to asset impairments and low margins. The 2026 estimates anticipate a recovery driven by the factors outlined in this report.

Source: iFinD, China Post Securities Research Institute. Note: EPS forecasts for unrated companies are consensus estimates from iFinD.

Valuation Commentary:
The sector is currently valued on a forward-looking basis (2026E). The P/E multiples for 2026 range from 25x to 51x. While these may seem elevated compared to mature industries, they are consistent with high-growth renewable energy sectors undergoing a cyclical turnaround.
* Best Value: JinkoSolar (31x) and JA Solar (27x) offer the most attractive entry points relative to their expected earnings recovery, given their strong operational track records.
* Growth Premium: LONGi (51x) commands a premium due to its brand strength, technological bets on BC, and larger market cap, which attracts institutional liquidity.
* Hybrid Model: Arries/Canadian Solar (25x) offers the lowest forward multiple, reflecting the market’s discount for the complexities of its global project development business, but potentially offering upside if project margins remain robust.

Deep Dive: The "System Safety" and Grid Integration Theme

As highlighted in our previous report "New Energy Consumption Gradually Becomes a System Engineering Project, Bullish on the Prosperity of System Safety Fields" (Nov 12, 2025), the focus is shifting from mere generation capacity to system stability and safety.

Why This Matters for PV Investors

1. Mandatory Storage: The new policies explicitly promote "integrated fusion." This means new PV projects, especially large bases, will increasingly require co-located energy storage systems (ESS). This creates a secondary growth engine for PV companies that have ESS divisions (like Sungrow, Huawei, and increasingly module makers partnering with battery firms).
2. Grid-Forming Inverters: Traditional grid-following inverters are insufficient for high-penetration renewable grids. There is a rising demand for grid-forming inverters that can provide voltage and frequency support. Companies like Sungrow, Huawei (unlisted), and specialized inverter makers like Shangneng Electric are well-positioned.
3. Digitalization and AI: Managing a decentralized, high-volume renewable grid requires advanced software solutions for forecasting, dispatch, and trading. This opens up opportunities for tech-enabled energy service providers.

Investment Implication

While this report focuses on module manufacturers, investors should consider a barbell strategy:
* Core Holding: Leading integrated module makers (LONGi, Jinko) to capture the beta of overall PV demand growth.
* Satellite Holding: Companies specializing in grid integration, storage, and system safety (Inverters, ESS integrators) to capture the alpha from the structural shift towards a smarter, more resilient grid.

Macro-Economic Context: China as the "Action-Oriented" Leader

China’s submission of NDC 3.0 is a geopolitical and economic signal. In a world where climate commitments are often debated, China is executing.

• Industrial Policy Alignment: The PV industry is a cornerstone of China’s "New Three" export drivers (EVs, Batteries, Solar). Supporting this industry is not just about climate; it’s about maintaining industrial competitiveness and export revenue.
• Domestic Stimulus: Accelerating PV installations serves as a form of infrastructure stimulus, creating jobs in manufacturing, construction, and grid upgrades. This aligns with broader macro-economic goals of stabilizing growth.
• Energy Security: Reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels by maximizing domestic renewable generation enhances national energy security, a top priority for the Chinese leadership.

This macro backdrop provides a strong "floor" for the industry. Government support is unlikely to waver, reducing the probability of severe policy reversals that could harm demand.

Technical Analysis & Market Sentiment

• Index Performance: The PV industry index closed at 10,749.97, near its 52-week high of 10,950.05. This proximity to highs suggests strong momentum and investor confidence. The 52-week low of 6,107.84 indicates a significant recovery has already occurred, but the trend remains upward.
• Volume Trends: Recent trading volumes have been healthy, indicating active institutional participation. The divergence in individual stock performance (as seen in the weekly涨跌幅 table) suggests that stock selection is becoming more critical than broad sector betting.
• Sentiment Indicators: Analyst coverage has turned more positive, with a shift from "cautious" to "overweight" ratings in recent weeks. The narrative has moved from "oversupply fear" to "policy-driven demand recovery."

Conclusion and Final Recommendations

The Chinese photovoltaic industry stands at an inflection point. The confluence of NDC 3.0 policy support, supply-side rationalization, and resilient underlying demand creates a compelling investment case for 2026.

Strategic Recommendations for Institutional Investors:

1. Accumulate on Weakness: Use any short-term market corrections or volatility as buying opportunities for tier-1 integrated module manufacturers. The long-term trend is upward, and the expectation gap for 2026 is positive.
2. Focus on Quality: Prioritize companies with strong balance sheets, low debt levels, and proven technological leadership (TOPCon/BC/HJT). Avoid smaller, highly leveraged players who may struggle to survive the remaining period of margin compression.
3. Monitor Policy Implementation: Keep a close watch on the specific implementation details of the "Guiding Opinions" released in November. Look for announcements regarding UHV transmission line approvals, storage mandate percentages, and electricity market reforms. These will be key catalysts for stock price movements.
4. Diversify Within the Chain: Consider exposure to the "System Safety" theme (inverters, storage, grid tech) as a complement to pure PV manufacturing holdings. This hedges against pure manufacturing margin risks and captures the value add from grid integration.

Top Picks:

• LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH): For exposure to technology leadership (BC) and brand strength.
• JinkoSolar (688223.SH): For operational efficiency and TOPCon dominance.
• Arries/Canadian Solar (688472.SH): For a hybrid manufacturing/project development model and attractive valuation.

Final Word

The era of blind expansion in the PV industry is over. The new era is one of quality, integration, and system value. Investors who align their portfolios with companies that embody these characteristics will be well-positioned to benefit from the next leg of the global energy transition, led by China’s decisive action.

Appendix: Detailed Data Tables

A. Weekly Price Changes in PV Supply Chain

Source: InfoLink, China Post Securities Research Institute

B. Key Policy Documents Released in November 2025

Source: State Council, NDRC, NEA, China Post Securities Research Institute

C. Glossary of Terms

• NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions): Climate action plans submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement to reduce national emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
• TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact): A high-efficiency N-type solar cell technology currently dominating the market.
• HJT (Heterojunction Technology): Another high-efficiency N-type technology, known for higher potential efficiency but currently higher cost.
• BC (Back Contact): A technology where all electrical contacts are on the back of the cell, improving aesthetics and efficiency.
• Involution (Neijuan): A Chinese term used to describe intense, often destructive, internal competition that leads to diminishing returns.
• UHV (Ultra-High Voltage): Transmission technology used to transport electricity over long distances with low losses, critical for connecting western renewable bases to eastern load centers.

Disclaimer and Analyst Certification

Analyst Certification:
The analyst(s) responsible for this report certifies that all views expressed herein accurately reflect his/her/their personal views about the subject securities or issuers. No part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Important Disclosures:
* China Post Securities Co., Ltd. holds no material financial interest in the companies mentioned in this report, except as may be disclosed in compliance with regulatory requirements.
* This report is intended for institutional investors only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
* Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.

Contact Information:
* Beijing: No. 17 Zhushikou East Street, Dongcheng District, Beijing, 100050. Email: yanjiusuo@cnpsec.com
* Shenzhen: 2nd Floor, Guotong Building, No. 9023 Binhe Avenue, Futian District, Shenzhen, 518048. Email: yanjiusuo@cnpsec.com
* Shanghai: 3rd Floor, PSBC Building, No. 1080 Dongdaming Road, Hongkou District, Shanghai, 200000. Email: yanjiusuo@cnpsec.com

End of Report