Research report

Electrical Equipment & Utilities Industry Weekly Report: 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Conference Held, Progress Made in Solid-State Electrolyte Interface Research

Published 2025-12-22 · Hualong Securities · Yang Yang,Xu Zijing
Source: report_5045.html

Electrical Equipment & Utilities Industry Weekly Report: 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Conference Held, Progress Made in Solid-State Electrolyte Interface Research

RecommendPhotovoltaic Equipment
Date2025-12-22
InstitutionHualong Securities
AnalystsYang Yang,Xu Zijing
RatingRecommend
IndustryPhotovoltaic Equipment
Report typeIndustry

Weekly Sector Review: Electrical Equipment & Utilities

Date: December 22, 2025
Source: Hualong Securities Research Institute
Analysts: Yang Yang (S0230523110001), Xu Zijing (S0230524080001)
Rating: Overweight (Maintained)


Executive Summary

The Chinese Electrical Equipment and New Energy sector experienced a corrective week from December 15 to December 19, 2025, underperforming the broader market. The Shenwan Electrical Equipment Index declined by 3.12% (ranking 30th out of 31 industries), while the Utilities Index fell by 0.59% (ranking 25th). In contrast, the CSI 300 and Wind All-A indices posted marginal declines of 0.28% and 0.15%, respectively. Despite short-term market volatility, the fundamental landscape for the new energy sector is undergoing significant structural optimization, driven by policy interventions against "involutionary" competition, robust overseas expansion in wind power, and breakthroughs in next-generation battery technologies.

This report maintains an "Overweight" (Recommended) rating for both the Electrical Equipment and Utilities sectors. Our conviction is based on four pivotal developments observed this week:
1. Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Consolidation: The 2025 China PV Industry Annual Conference emphasized high-quality development and mechanisms to curb irrational price wars, signaling a potential inflection point for industry profitability.
2. Wind Power Globalization: Major Chinese manufacturers are securing significant international contracts, exemplified by Dajin Heavy Industry’s supply agreement for the Polish BC-Wind offshore project, marking a milestone in full-component exports.
3. Technological Innovation in Lithium Batteries: Academic and industrial collaborations have yielded breakthroughs in solid-state electrolyte interface (SEI) stability, addressing critical hurdles in solid-state battery commercialization.
4. Utility Sector Resilience & Green Transition: China is on track to exceed its "14th Five-Year Plan" non-fossil energy consumption targets, with renewable energy installations accelerating towards becoming the primary source of power generation by 2030.

We recommend investors focus on leaders with technological moats in PV cells and materials (e.g., copper-silver substitution), profitable inverter exporters, offshore wind component suppliers, and utility companies benefiting from the green transition and stable cash flows.


Key Takeaways

1. Market Performance Recap: Short-Term Volatility Amidst Structural Shifts

The week of December 15–19, 2025, was characterized by broad-based weakness in the new energy complex, likely reflecting year-end profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainty rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

  • Sector Relative Performance:

    • Electrical Equipment (Shenwan): -3.12%
    • Utilities (Shenwan): -0.59%
    • Benchmark (CSI 300): -0.28%
    • Broad Market (Wind All-A): -0.15%
  • Sub-Sector Breakdown (Electrical Equipment):

    • Other Power Equipment: -3.88%
    • Grid Equipment: -2.97%
    • Photovoltaic Equipment: -2.73%
    • Wind Power Equipment: -2.60%
  • Sub-Sector Breakdown (Utilities):

    • Electricity Generation: -0.66%
    • Gas: +0.11% (Defensive outperformance)
  • Individual Stock Movements:

    • Top Performers (Electrical Equipment): Hualing Cable (+29.56%), Aerospace Electromechanical (+22.60%), Risen Energy (+19.39%), Junda Shares (+19.14%), Saiwu Technology (+16.89%).
    • Top Performers (Utilities): Shengtong Energy (+61.06%), Meineng Energy (+5.22%), Xinzhu Shares (+4.03%).
    • Laggards: Enjie Shares (-18.36%), Maxwell Technologies (-15.82%), indicating continued pressure on certain lithium material and equipment segments.

Analyst Note: The divergence between the sharp decline in specific lithium material stocks (e.g., Enjie) and the resilience of gas utilities highlights the market's ongoing rotation away from oversupplied battery materials towards stable yield assets and technologically differentiated players.

2. Photovoltaics: Policy-Driven Supply Side Reform and Price Stabilization Attempts

The most significant event for the PV sector was the 2025 China PV Industry Annual Conference, held in Xi’an on December 18, 2025. Hosted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) and LONGi Green Energy, the conference served as a platform for industry leaders to address the pervasive issue of "involutionary competition" (price wars) and chart a path toward high-quality development.

2.1 Strategic Imperatives from the Annual Conference

Zhong Baoshen, Chairman of LONGi Green Energy and Vice Chairman of CPIA, articulated a clear strategic direction for the industry entering the "15th Five-Year Plan" period (starting 2026):
* Combating Involution: Aligning with the Central Economic Work Conference’s directive to build a unified national market and rectify internal vicious competition, the industry is prioritizing product quality and customer interests over market share at any cost.
* Technological Leadership: The future competitive advantage will be derived from high-level technological innovation rather than capacity expansion alone.
* Collaborative Ecosystem: Upstream and downstream产业链 (industry chain) participants are urged to strengthen cooperation under the guidance of regulatory bodies and the CPIA to foster a healthy market environment.

2.2 Supply Chain Price Dynamics (Week of Dec 15-19)

Despite the positive sentiment from the conference, actual transaction prices remain under pressure due to weak terminal demand in Q4. However, upstream players are actively attempting to stabilize prices through production controls and self-discipline agreements.

Segment Price Trend Key Observations Average Price Range (RMB)
Polysilicon Stabilizing / Attempted Hike Manufacturers announced production controls to support prices. Mainstream dense material quotes rose to >65-67 RMB/kg, but no transactions occurred at these levels due to weak downstream demand. Actual transactions remained at lower levels. Dense/Recycled: 49-55
Granular: 50-51
Wafers Stable / Quote Increase Prices held steady. Most manufacturers adjusted new quotes upward, citing rising silver paste costs and upstream silicon price expectations. However, actual volume traded was limited as buyers resisted the hike. N/A (Hold)
Cells (N-Type) Price Increase Driven by soaring silver prices, top-tier cell makers raised quotes to 0.30 RMB/W for 183N, 210RN, and 210N sizes to cover cash costs. Orders below 0.30 RMB/W were halted, forcing second-tier makers to follow suit. 183N/210N: 0.285-0.30
210RN: 0.28-0.30
Modules Mixed / Lagging Module prices have not yet universally risen. While battery cost pressures are mounting, module makers are cautious. TOPCon centralised projects trade at 0.64-0.70 RMB/W. HJT modules (715-720W) trade at 0.71-0.73 RMB/W. TOPCon: 0.64-0.70
HJT: 0.71-0.73

Critical Insight: The disconnect between quoted prices and transaction volumes in polysilicon and wafers indicates that while supply-side discipline is improving, demand-side weakness remains the binding constraint. The successful transmission of battery cell price hikes (driven by silver costs) to the module level will be the key indicator of margin recovery in Q1 2026. If module prices do not rise, cell makers’ margins will be squeezed despite higher quotes.

2.3 Export Data: Resilient Overseas Demand

Contrasting with domestic softness, export data remains robust, providing a crucial buffer for leading manufacturers.
* Solar Modules (Nov 2025): Export value reached RMB 17.077 billion, representing a 31% YoY increase and a 6.3% MoM increase.
* Inverters (Nov 2025): Export value reached RMB 5.43 billion, representing a 23% YoY increase and a 13% MoM increase.

This data underscores the importance of global diversification for Chinese PV firms. Companies with strong overseas channels (e.g., Sungrow, Deye) are better positioned to maintain profitability amidst domestic price competition.

3. Wind Power: Offshore Expansion and International Breakthroughs

The wind sector continues to demonstrate strong growth momentum, particularly in offshore wind and international markets.

3.1 Domestic Installation Surge

  • October 2025 Installations: New installed capacity reached 8.92 GW, a 34% YoY increase and a substantial 175% MoM increase.
  • YTD Performance (Jan-Oct 2025): Cumulative new installations totaled 70.01 GW, up 53% YoY.

This acceleration suggests that project delays from earlier in the year are being resolved, and the rush to complete installations before potential policy shifts or year-end deadlines is driving activity.

3.2 Major Corporate Development: Dajin Heavy Industry’s Polish Project

A landmark development for Chinese wind manufacturing globalization occurred this week:
* Company: Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ).
* Project: BC-Wind Offshore Wind Farm, Poland.
* Scope: Manufacturing and delivery of 27 monopile foundations and 27 transition pieces.
* Significance: This is the first time Dajin has manufactured all transition pieces for an international project. Previously, such components were often sourced locally or from other European suppliers. This marks a significant upgrade in the value chain capture by Chinese manufacturers.
* Project Details:
* Location: ~23km north of the Polish coast, Pomeranian Voivodeship.
* Water Depth: 35-60 meters.
* Capacity: 390 MW.
* Turbines: 26 units of Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 (with PowerBoost to 15MW).
* Timeline: Delivery in 2026; First power expected in 2028.
* Partners: Ocean Winds (EDP Renewables & ENGIE JV) as developer; DEME and Seaway7 for installation.

Investment Implication: Dajin’s success in securing full-component contracts in Europe validates the competitiveness of Chinese offshore wind foundations despite geopolitical headwinds. It suggests that cost advantages and manufacturing scalability are overcoming trade barriers in specific niches. We view this as a positive catalyst for other tower and foundation manufacturers like Tianshun Wind Energy and Haoli Wind Power.

4. Lithium Batteries: Solid-State Technology Breakthrough

While traditional lithium-ion battery materials face oversupply, research into next-generation technologies is accelerating, offering long-term optionality for specialized material suppliers.

4.1 Tsinghua University SEI Breakthrough

A joint research team from Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School and Tianjin University published significant findings in solid-state lithium-metal batteries:
* Innovation: Proposed a "Plastic Inorganic-Rich SEI" (Solid Electrolyte Interphase) design concept.
* Methodology: Moved away from the traditional "strength-only" model. Used the Pugh Criterion (B/G ratio ≥ 1.75) to identify materials with plastic deformation capabilities. AI-accelerated screening identified Silver Sulfide (Ag2S) and Silver Fluoride (AgF) as optimal candidates.
* Performance Benefits:
* Enhanced mechanical properties (plasticity allows accommodation of volume changes).
* Improved Li-ion transport kinetics.
* Gradient lithiophilic/lithiophobic characteristics.
* Result: Significantly improved cycling stability under high current densities and low-temperature conditions.

Investment Implication: This breakthrough addresses two major pain points of solid-state batteries: interface instability and poor low-temperature performance. For investors, this reinforces the long-term thesis for companies involved in advanced electrolyte materials and novel anode interfaces. Specifically, companies like Sanxiang Advanced Materials (zirconium/solid electrolyte precursors), Shanghai Xiba (solid electrolyte R&D), and Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (cathode/material integration) are well-positioned to benefit from the eventual commercialization of these technologies. Additionally, the use of silver compounds highlights the potential niche for silver-related material suppliers, although the quantities per cell remain small compared to traditional conductive pastes.

5. Utilities: Accelerating Green Transition and Policy Targets

The utility sector is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by national energy security and carbon neutrality goals.

5.1 "14th Five-Year Plan" Targets Exceeded

According to the National Energy Administration:
* Investment: Full-year energy key project investment is estimated at RMB 3.54 trillion, an 11% YoY increase.
* Renewable Installations:
* First batch of large-scale wind/PV bases: Basically completed and operational.
* Second and third batches: ~50 GW completed and operational.
* 2025 Total New Wind/PV Installations: Estimated at 370 GW.
* Non-Fossil Energy Share: The target of raising the non-fossil energy share in total energy consumption to ~20% will be exceeded ahead of schedule.

5.2 Future Outlook (2026-2030)

  • 2026 Focus: Continued increase in new energy supply proportion. Acceleration of "Three Norths" (North, Northeast, Northwest) bases, hydro-wind-solar integrated projects in major river basins, offshore wind, and PV sand-control experimental projects.
  • 2030 Milestone: New energy generation capacity is projected to exceed 50% of total power installed capacity, becoming the dominant source of electricity.

Investment Implication: The rapid scaling of renewables necessitates massive grid upgrades and flexibility resources. This benefits:
1. Grid Equipment Manufacturers: For UHV transmission and distribution automation.
2. Thermal Power Plants: As providers of peak-shaving and backup capacity, their role is shifting from baseload to flexibility services, potentially supporting capacity payments and stable margins (e.g., Huaneng International, Huadian International).
3. Power IT/Digitalization: Companies like Longshine Technology, Guoneng Rixin, and Acrel are critical for managing the complexity of a decentralized, renewable-heavy grid.


Risks / Headwinds

Investors should carefully consider the following risks when positioning portfolios in the Electrical Equipment and Utilities sectors:

  1. Macroeconomic Slowdown: A weaker-than-expected economic recovery could suppress overall electricity demand growth and reduce corporate capital expenditure on grid infrastructure and renewable projects. This would directly impact the order books of equipment manufacturers and the utilization rates of power generators.
  2. Policy Implementation Lag: While national targets are ambitious, local implementation of subsidies, grid connection approvals, and land use permits can be inconsistent. Delays in policy execution could lead to slower-than-expected installation rates for wind and solar, affecting revenue recognition for manufacturers.
  3. Raw Material Price Volatility:
    • Polysilicon/Lithium: Sharp fluctuations in upstream material prices can disrupt supply chain stability. While current trends show stabilization, unexpected supply shocks or demand spikes could reintroduce margin pressure.
    • Silver/Copper: The recent surge in silver prices is already squeezing PV cell margins. Further increases could erode profitability if not fully passed down to module buyers.
  4. Geopolitical and Trade Barriers:
    • Export Restrictions: Increasing trade protectionism in Europe (e.g., anti-subsidy investigations) and the US (tariffs) poses a significant risk to Chinese exporters of PV modules, wind turbines, and batteries.
    • Supply Chain Decoupling: Efforts by Western nations to build independent supply chains could limit the long-term market access for Chinese manufacturers, forcing them to rely more on domestic and emerging markets.
  5. Intensified Industry Competition: Despite calls for "anti-involution," the sheer scale of existing capacity in PV and lithium batteries means price competition may persist longer than anticipated. This could lead to prolonged periods of low profitability or even losses for less efficient players, risking bankruptcies and credit events.
  6. Data Accuracy Risks: Industry data is often aggregated from third-party sources (e.g., InfoLink, Wind). Discrepancies in data collection methodologies or reporting lags can lead to misinterpretation of supply/demand balances, resulting in suboptimal investment decisions.
  7. Company-Specific Execution Risk: Individual companies may fail to meet earnings forecasts due to operational inefficiencies, project delays, or technological setbacks. For example, the transition to N-type PV cells or solid-state batteries requires significant R&D and capex; failure to execute effectively could result in loss of market share.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Overall Rating: Overweight (Recommended)

We maintain our positive outlook on the Electrical Equipment and Utilities sectors. The combination of policy-driven supply side reform in PV, robust export growth in wind and inverters, and the secular trend of electrification and grid modernization provides a compelling investment case. While short-term volatility persists, the long-term structural drivers remain intact.

Sector-Specific Outlooks

Sector Outlook Key Drivers
Photovoltaics Neutral to Positive Supply side discipline is improving; prices are stabilizing. Focus on leaders with cost advantages and overseas exposure. Watch for Q1 2026 margin recovery.
Wind Power Positive Strong domestic installation growth; successful international expansion (offshore). Offshore wind is entering a high-growth phase.
Lithium Batteries Neutral Traditional materials face oversupply. Value lies in technological innovators (solid-state, fast-charging) and leaders with strong cost control.
Utilities Positive Stable cash flows from thermal power (flexibility role); growth from renewable additions; grid modernization spending. Defensive attributes with growth optionality.
Grid Equipment Positive Beneficiary of renewable integration needs; UHV construction acceleration; digitalization of grid management.

Investment View

Based on the current industry dynamics, we recommend a barbell strategy: combining high-growth technology leaders with stable, high-yield utility assets.

1. Photovoltaics: Focus on Efficiency and Material Innovation

The PV sector is transitioning from capacity-driven growth to efficiency-driven profitability. Investors should prioritize companies with leading technology nodes and those benefiting from material substitution trends.

  • Cell Leaders (Efficiency Advantage):
    • Aiko Solar (600732.SH): Leader in ABC (All Back Contact) technology, known for high efficiency and premium pricing power. Expected to return to profitability in 2025/2026.
    • LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH): Integrated leader with strong balance sheet and technological reserves in HPBC. Well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation.
  • Polysilicon Leaders (Cost Advantage):
    • Tongwei Co. (600438.SH): Lowest-cost producer with significant scale. As prices stabilize, Tongwei’s cash flow generation capability will be superior to peers. Expected to return to profit in 2026.
  • Material Innovation (Copper-Silver Substitution):
    • With silver prices soaring, technologies that reduce silver consumption or substitute it with copper are critical.
    • Boqian New Material (605376.SH): Leader in ultra-fine metal powders, including copper-based alternatives for PV pastes. High growth potential.
    • Polymer Material (688503.SH): Leading supplier of PV silver paste, actively developing low-silver and copper-based solutions.
    • DKEM (300842.SZ): Another key player in conductive pastes, benefiting from volume growth and technological upgrades.

2. Inverters: High Profitability and Global Reach

Inverters remain one of the most profitable segments in the PV value chain, with strong brand loyalty and recurring service revenue. Overseas markets offer significantly higher margins.

  • Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ): Global leader in solar inverters and energy storage systems. Strong presence in Europe and emerging markets. Consistent earnings growth.
  • Deye Shares (605117.SH): Dominant in hybrid inverters for residential storage, particularly in emerging markets (Africa, Asia, Latin America). High profitability.
  • GoodWe (688390.SH) & Ginlong Technologies (300763.SZ): Strong competitors in the distributed and residential segments, with expanding global footprints.

3. Wind Power: Offshore and International Exposure

The wind sector is benefiting from the rollout of large-scale offshore projects and the globalization of Chinese supply chains.

  • Turbine Manufacturers:
    • Goldwind Science & Technology (002202.SZ): Market leader with strong service business and international orders.
    • Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SH): Leader in offshore wind turbines, particularly in large-capacity models.
  • Components (Tower/Foundations):
    • Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ): Proven ability to win international offshore contracts (e.g., Poland project). High barrier to entry in offshore foundations.
  • Subsea Cables:
    • Orient Cable (603606.SH): Leader in high-voltage subsea cables, a critical and high-margin component of offshore wind farms. Beneficiary of domestic offshore wind acceleration.

4. Lithium Batteries: Selective Opportunities in Materials and Solid-State

Avoid generic cathode/anode producers facing severe oversupply. Focus on niche leaders and next-gen tech enablers.

  • LFP Cathode & Anode Leaders:
    • Hunan Yuneng (301358.SZ): Leading LFP cathode supplier with strong ties to CATL and BYD. Cost leadership.
    • Wanrun New Energy (688275.SH): LFP cathode producer with improving utilization rates.
    • Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ) & Shangtai Technology (001301.SZ): Leading anode material suppliers with integrated graphitization capabilities, ensuring cost competitiveness.
  • Solid-State Battery Enablers:
    • Sanxiang Advanced Materials (603663.SH): Supplier of zirconium materials, essential for certain solid-state electrolyte formulations.
    • Shanghai Xiba (603200.SH): Active R&D in solid-state electrolytes and medical water treatment, offering optionality.
    • GuanSheng Shares (605088.SH): Auto parts company expanding into solid-state battery components.
    • Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (688778.SH): Integrated cathode and battery material player with strong R&D.
  • Conductive Agents:
    • Cnano Technology (688116.SH): Leader in carbon nanotubes (CNTs), which are increasingly used in high-performance batteries to enhance conductivity.

5. Utilities & Power IT: Stability and Digitalization

  • Thermal Power (Flexibility Providers):
    • Huaneng International (600011.SH), Huadian International (600027.SH), GD Power Development (600795.SH), Datang Power (601991.SH): These companies are benefiting from lower coal prices (stable input costs) and capacity payment mechanisms. They provide essential grid stability as renewable penetration increases. Attractive valuations and dividend yields.
  • Power IT & Digitalization:
    • Longshine Group (300682.SZ): Leader in electric vehicle charging networks and utility digitalization.
    • Guoneng Rixin (301162.SZ): Specialized in power prediction and grid dispatch software, critical for managing renewable variability.
    • Acrel (300286.SZ): Provider of user-side energy management systems, benefiting from corporate energy efficiency demands.

Detailed Financial Analysis & Valuation Framework

To provide a comprehensive view, we analyze the valuation metrics of the recommended companies. The table below summarizes the consensus earnings forecasts and valuation multiples as of December 19, 2025.

Valuation Table: Key Recommended Companies

Code Company Name Price (RMB) EPS (RMB) PE Ratio Rating
2025/12/19 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E
PV & Materials
600438.SH Tongwei Co. 20.80 -1.56 -1.20 0.59 1.19 - - 35.3 17.4 Not Rated
601012.SH LONGi Green 18.08 -1.14 -0.51 0.40 0.69 - - 44.7 26.0 Not Rated
600732.SH Aiko Solar 13.04 -2.91 0.01 0.58 0.98 - 2,507.7 22.4 13.3 Not Rated
688503.SH Polymer Mat. 56.77 1.73 2.79 3.29 2.60 32.9 20.3 17.3 21.8 Overweight
605376.SH Boqian New 61.66 0.33 0.94 1.78 2.58 184.4 65.6 34.6 23.9 Overweight
300842.SZ DKEM 60.02 2.56 1.37 2.94 4.25 23.5 43.9 20.4 14.1 Not Rated
Inverters
300274.SZ Sungrow 164.05 5.32 7.28 8.55 9.77 30.8 22.5 19.2 16.8 Buy
605117.SH Deye Shares 87.85 4.59 3.78 4.67 5.54 19.1 23.3 18.8 15.9 Not Rated
688390.SH GoodWe 58.84 -0.25 0.91 1.93 2.93 - 64.8 30.5 20.1 Not Rated
300763.SZ Ginlong Tech 70.30 1.73 2.93 3.66 4.38 40.6 24.0 19.2 16.1 Not Rated
Wind Power
002487.SZ Dajin Heavy 54.37 0.74 1.70 2.41 3.18 73.2 31.9 22.6 17.1 Not Rated
603606.SH Orient Cable 59.22 1.47 2.24 3.04 3.65 40.4 26.4 19.5 16.2 Not Rated
300443.SZ Jinlei Shares 27.70 0.54 1.40 1.95 2.42 51.3 19.7 14.2 11.5 Not Rated
688186.SH Guangda Spec 22.70 0.54 1.27 1.64 1.92 42.4 17.9 13.8 11.8 Not Rated
603218.SH Riyue Heavy 12.73 0.61 0.67 0.82 0.96 21.0 18.9 15.5 13.2 Not Rated
Lithium & Solid State
301358.SZ Hunan Yuneng 62.65 0.78 1.51 2.97 3.97 79.9 41.5 21.1 15.8 Not Rated
300035.SZ Zhongke Elec 20.95 0.44 0.92 1.27 1.69 47.4 22.7 16.5 12.4 Not Rated
001301.SZ Shangtai Tech 78.71 3.21 3.92 5.27 6.59 24.5 20.1 14.9 11.9 Not Rated
603663.SH Sanxiang Adv 35.61 0.18 0.30 0.57 0.80 199.0 118.2 62.9 44.5 Not Rated
603200.SH Shanghai Xiba 69.12 0.24 0.80 1.16 3.38 282.4 86.0 59.5 20.5 Not Rated
688116.SH Cnano Tech 46.18 0.73 0.92 1.67 2.30 63.6 50.4 27.7 20.1 Not Rated
Utilities & Power IT
600011.SH Huaneng Intl 7.82 0.65 0.89 0.95 0.99 12.1 8.8 8.3 7.9 Not Rated
600027.SH Huadian Intl 5.20 0.56 0.59 0.63 0.69 9.3 8.7 8.2 7.6 Not Rated
300682.SZ Longshine Grp 15.23 -0.23 0.48 0.62 0.69 - 31.7 24.6 22.1 Overweight
301162.SZ Guoneng Rixin 52.10 0.93 0.96 1.28 1.65 55.8 54.1 40.6 31.6 Not Rated
300286.SZ Acrel 22.62 0.79 1.01 1.27 1.59 28.6 22.3 17.8 14.2 Not Rated

Source: Wind, Hualong Securities Research Institute. Note: Unrated companies' earnings forecasts are based on Wind consensus estimates. Except for Boqian New Material, Sungrow, and Longshine Group, 2027 forecasts for other companies are from Wind consensus.

Valuation Commentary

  1. PV Sector Turnaround Play:

    • Tongwei and LONGi are currently trading at negative or low P/E ratios due to recent losses. However, the forward P/E for 2026 (35.3x for Tongwei, 44.7x for LONGi) reflects the market's expectation of a strong recovery in profitability as supply clears. For value-oriented investors, these stocks offer significant upside if the industry consolidation proceeds as planned.
    • Aiko Solar shows a dramatic shift from loss to profit, with a 2026 P/E of 22.4x, suggesting it is reasonably valued given its technological premium.
  2. Inverter Premium Justified:

    • Sungrow trades at a 2025 P/E of 22.5x, which is reasonable given its consistent double-digit earnings growth and global leadership. Its "Buy" rating is supported by its superior visibility and margin stability compared to module manufacturers.
    • Deye Shares and Ginlong trade at similar multiples (23-24x 2025E PE), reflecting their strong positions in the high-margin residential storage market.
  3. Wind Components Attractive Valuation:

    • Dajin Heavy Industry (31.9x 2025E PE) and Orient Cable (26.4x 2025E PE) are priced for growth. Given the high barriers to entry in offshore wind and the international expansion story, these multiples are justified. The projected decline in P/E to ~17x by 2027 indicates strong earnings compounding.
  4. Utilities as Defensive Yield:

    • Huaneng International and Huadian International trade at single-digit P/E ratios (8-9x 2025E). These valuations reflect their mature status but offer attractive dividend yields and downside protection. They serve as excellent portfolio stabilizers.
  5. High-Growth Tech Premium:

    • Companies like Boqian New Material and Shanghai Xiba command high P/E multiples (65x and 86x respectively for 2025E) due to their exposure to disruptive technologies (copper substitution, solid-state batteries). Investors should approach these with a long-term horizon, acknowledging higher volatility.

Deep Dive: Strategic Themes for 2026

Theme 1: The End of "Involution" in PV – A Supply-Side Reform Story

The Chinese PV industry has suffered from excessive capacity expansion, leading to prices falling below cash costs for many players. The 2025 Annual Conference signals a coordinated effort to reverse this trend.

  • Mechanism: The industry is moving towards a "self-discipline" model, where major players agree to limit production runs and adhere to minimum price floors. This is akin to the OPEC model in oil, albeit less formal.
  • Impact: We expect to see a reduction in spot market volume in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 as manufacturers withhold supply to support prices. This will lead to a temporary dip in utilization rates but a significant improvement in average selling prices (ASPs).
  • Winner Takes All: Companies with lower cash costs (e.g., Tongwei in polysilicon, Aiko in cells) will survive the consolidation phase and gain market share from weaker competitors who exit the market.

Theme 2: Offshore Wind – The Next Growth Engine

Onshore wind in China is approaching saturation in prime locations. Offshore wind, particularly in deep waters, is the next frontier.

  • Policy Support: The government is accelerating the approval of offshore wind projects in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces.
  • Technology Trend: Larger turbines (15MW+) are reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for offshore projects, making them competitive with onshore wind and coal.
  • Supply Chain Benefit: The supply chain for offshore wind is more specialized and has higher barriers to entry than onshore. Foundations (Dajin), cables (Orient Cable), and large turbines (Mingyang) enjoy stronger pricing power and higher margins.

Theme 3: Solid-State Batteries – From Lab to Fab

While mass commercialization of all-solid-state batteries is still likely 3-5 years away, incremental adoption of semi-solid-state batteries is beginning.

  • Near-Term Opportunity: Companies supplying materials for semi-solid batteries (e.g., specialized electrolytes, coated separators) will see revenue growth sooner.
  • Long-Term Optionality: Investments in pure-play solid-state R&D firms or traditional battery makers with strong IP portfolios (e.g., CATL, though not explicitly rated here, influences the sector) will pay off in the next decade.
  • Key Materials: Zirconium, Sulfides, and specialized Lithium metals are the critical raw materials. Sanxiang Advanced Materials and Shanghai Xiba are direct proxies for this theme.

Theme 4: Grid Modernization – The Enabler of Renewables

As renewable penetration exceeds 30-40%, grid stability becomes a challenge.

  • Flexibility Resources: Thermal power plants are being retrofitted for flexibility. Energy storage systems (ESS) are being mandated for new renewable projects.
  • Digital Grid: AI and IoT are being deployed to predict renewable generation and optimize dispatch. This creates a recurring revenue stream for software providers like Guoneng Rixin and Longshine.
  • UHV Transmission: To move power from the "Three Norths" to load centers in the East, Ultra-High Voltage lines are being expanded. This benefits transformer and switchgear manufacturers.

Conclusion

The Electrical Equipment and Utilities sector is at a pivotal juncture. The short-term pain of price wars in PV and lithium is giving way to a more structured, sustainable growth model driven by technology, globalization, and policy support.

For institutional investors, the current market correction offers an attractive entry point into high-quality assets. We recommend:
1. Accumulating PV leaders (Tongwei, LONGi, Aiko) on dips, anticipating a 2026 profitability recovery.
2. Overweighting Inverters (Sungrow, Deye) for their superior margins and global exposure.
3. Buying Wind Offshore Plays (Dajin, Orient Cable) to capture the next wave of renewable growth.
4. Holding Utilities (Huaneng, Huadian) for stability and yield.
5. Speculative Positions in Solid-State Materials (Sanxiang, Shanghai Xiba) for long-term technological upside.

We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, confident that the structural tailwinds of energy transition and technological innovation will drive long-term shareholder value.


Appendix: Methodology and Data Sources

  • Market Data: Stock prices, market capitalization, and trading volumes are sourced from Wind Information as of December 19, 2025.
  • Industry Data: PV supply chain prices are sourced from InfoLink Consulting. Wind installation data is sourced from the National Energy Administration and Wind Information.
  • Earnings Forecasts: For companies with a "Not Rated" status, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts are based on Wind consensus estimates. For rated companies (Sungrow, Boqian, Polymer Material, Longshine), forecasts are derived from Hualong Securities Research Institute's proprietary models.
  • Valuation Metrics: P/E ratios are calculated based on the closing price on December 19, 2025, divided by the respective EPS forecast.

Disclaimer

This report is prepared by Hualong Securities Research Institute for institutional investors only. It is based on information believed to be reliable, but Hualong Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Risk Rating: R4 (Medium-High Risk)
Suitable for: Clients with risk tolerance level C4 and above.


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