Space Photovoltaics (SPV) Deep Dive: From High Reliability to High Cost-Performance – A Blue Ocean Market Forged by Ultra-High Barriers

Sector: New Energy & Power Equipment / Commercial Aerospace
Analyst: Yao Yao (S1130512080001)
Date: December 2025 (Based on Report Data)
Source: Guojin Securities Research Institute

Executive Summary

We identify Space Photovoltaics (SPV) as one of the most compelling investment themes within the new energy and electrical equipment sector, with momentum expected to sustain strongly through 2026 and beyond. The investment thesis is underpinned by two fundamental pillars: uniqueness and urgency. Solar power remains the only viable, reliable, and scalable energy solution for long-term orbital operations of functional satellites, computing constellations, and future extraterrestrial bases. Concurrently, the International Telecommunication Union’s (ITU) "first-come, first-served" rule for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) slots and spectrum resources has triggered a global race in satellite deployment. This geopolitical and commercial imperative drives an urgent demand for space solar systems that are not only high-performance but also lightweight and cost-effective.

This report, the inaugural piece in our SPV series, focuses on the technological evolution of space photovoltaics. We argue that the industry is undergoing a critical structural shift from a "High Reliability" paradigm to a "High Cost-Performance" paradigm. While Triple-Junction Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) batteries have historically dominated due to their superior efficiency and radiation resistance, their prohibitive costs and resource scarcity (Germanium/Gallium) render them unsuitable for the emerging era of mega-constellations requiring GW-scale deployments.

Consequently, we foresee a rapid iteration in technology routes:
1. Short-Term: Crystalline Silicon (c-Si), particularly P-type and thin-film variants, is gaining traction due to its mature industrial base, low manufacturing costs, and proven historical orbital data.
2. Long-Term: Perovskite-Silicon Tandem cells and multi-junction Perovskite cells represent the next-generation frontier. These technologies promise to balance the high efficiency of GaAs with the low cost of silicon, while offering superior specific power (W/g) characteristics essential for flexible solar arrays.

The SPV sector is characterized by ultra-high barriers to entry, encompassing specialized material science for extreme environments (atomic oxygen, radiation, thermal cycling), scarce testing infrastructure (space environment simulation chambers), and exclusive access to orbital verification channels. Therefore, incumbent "National Team" enterprises and strategic technology firms with established supply chain positions and comprehensive testing capabilities are poised to capture significant first-mover advantages.

We recommend investors focus on three key value chains:
1. PV Cell Manufacturers with unique positioning in space-grade technologies (e.g., Perovskite tandems, P-type HJT).
2. Leading PV Equipment Suppliers enabling the transition to next-gen cell architectures.
3. Specialized Material Suppliers, particularly those providing space-grade polyimide (PI) films and protective coatings.

Key Takeaways

1. The Inevitability of Solar Power in Space

Solar photovoltaics are the undisputed standard for space energy. In the design orbits of functional satellites and future Mars bases, alternative energy sources face severe limitations:
* Chemical Batteries: Limited energy density and inability to self-recharge make them unsuitable for primary long-term power generation.
* Nuclear Systems: Prohibitively high costs, complex regulatory approval processes, and safety concerns limit their application to specific deep-space missions rather than widespread LEO/MEO constellations.
* Photovoltaics: Offer direct, continuous conversion of abundant solar energy into electricity. They possess critical attributes for space applications: high efficiency, lightweight potential, low cost trajectory, flexibility, and resilience to extreme environments.

2. Technological Iteration: The Shift from GaAs to Cost-Effective Alternatives

The core investment logic revolves around the transition from performance-at-any-cost to cost-performance optimization.

A. The Incumbent: Triple-Junction Gallium Arsenide (GaAs)

• Status: Currently dominates the satellite power subsystem market.
• Advantages:
  • High Efficiency: Theoretical limit of 51%; current space-mainstream GaInP/Ga(In)As/Ge triple-junction cells achieve >30% efficiency under AM0 spectrum.
  • Radiation Resistance: GaAs is a polar semiconductor with strong atomic bonds. It exhibits a "self-annealing" capability where defects stabilize after reaching a peak, resulting in minimal current attenuation (<10% over 10 years in medium/high orbits).
  • Direct Bandgap: Allows for easier photon excitation compared to indirect bandgap silicon.
• Disadvantages:
  • Complex Manufacturing: Requires epitaxial growth of nearly 30 layers via MOCVD, demanding extreme precision.
  • Resource Scarcity & Cost: Relies on Germanium (Ge) and Gallium (Ga). Global reserves are limited (Ge: ~8,600 tons; Ga: ~230,000 tons). As of late 2025, Ge prices hovered around ¥12,950/kg and Ga around ¥1,650/kg.
  • Scalability Issue: If 10,000 satellites were launched annually with 100㎡ wings each, fully utilizing GaAs would consume ~850 tons of Ge and 10 tons of Ga, straining global supply and driving costs unsustainable for commercial mega-constellations.

B. The Challenger: Space-Adapted Crystalline Silicon (c-Si)

• Status: Rapidly increasing penetration due to cost advantages and mature terrestrial supply chains.
• Why P-Type over N-Type? Contrary to the terrestrial trend shifting to N-type (TOPCon/HJT), P-type silicon is preferred for space due to superior radiation resistance:
  • Defect Physics: P-type silicon contains Boron-Oxygen (B-O) complexes with deep energy levels, slowing down minority carrier recombination. High-energy particle radiation creates oxygen vacancy defects that have a lower capture probability for minority carriers (electrons) in P-type material, preserving longer minority carrier lifetimes.
  • N-Type Vulnerability: N-type silicon suffers from higher damage coefficients. Radiation-induced defects can effectively convert N-type silicon to P-type, causing PN junction failure.
• Technology Routes:
  • PERC: Higher maturity in space applications.
  • P-HJT (Heterojunction): Offers significant advantages in efficiency and thinning. A 60µm HJT cell can match the efficiency of a 180µm PERC cell. Thinner wafers are crucial for flexible solar arrays and mitigate radiation-induced efficiency decay (shorter diffusion length in thick wafers leads to faster degradation).
  • Limitations of Other Types: BSF cells suffer rapid power decay under radiation as the back surface field advantage diminishes. xBC cells rely on lateral current conduction in the base region; even minor radiation-induced resistivity increases cause massive series resistance losses.

C. The Future: Perovskite and Perovskite-Silicon Tandems

• Status: Emerging as the next-generation solution, balancing GaAs-like efficiency with Si-like costs.
• Advantages:
  • High Specific Power: Flexible single-junction perovskite cells offer a specific power of ~30 W/g, significantly higher than c-Si or GaAs (<1 W/g). This is critical for reducing launch mass.
  • Space Environment Suitability: While perovskites degrade rapidly in terrestrial humid/oxygen environments, the vacuum of space eliminates moisture and molecular oxygen—two primary degradation factors. Studies show encapsulated perovskites remain stable in湿热 (damp heat) tests, suggesting inherent stability in space if properly sealed against atomic oxygen.
  • Radiation Tolerance: Perovskite defects form within bands rather than the bandgap, minimizing non-radiative recombination. They exhibit superior resistance to high-energy/high-flux radiation compared to traditional semiconductors.
  • Tandem Potential: Combining Perovskite (bandgap 1.6-1.75 eV) with Silicon (~1.1 eV) can theoretically achieve ~44% efficiency, rivaling multi-junction GaAs.
• Challenges:
  • Testing Standards: Terrestrial "Double 85" tests (85°C/85% RH) are irrelevant. Space requires validation against extreme thermal cycling (±150°C every 90 mins), proton/electron irradiation, atomic oxygen erosion, and vibration.
  • Material Formulation: Space-specific formulations (e.g., adding iodine ions for proton resistance) differ from terrestrial ones, requiring dedicated R&D.

3. High Barriers to Entry: The Moat of Space PV

Space PV is not merely an upgrade of terrestrial technology; it is a distinct industry with formidable barriers:
* Technical Barrier: Products must withstand atomic oxygen erosion (LEO), high-energy electron/proton radiation (MEO/GEO), extreme thermal cycling, and full-spectrum UV exposure. R&D must be directed by specific space environment parameters, not just efficiency metrics.
* Testing Barrier: Validation requires expensive, scarce large-scale space environment simulation chambers. Tests can last months or years. The accumulation of test data and certification standards constitutes a deep moat.
* Channel Barrier: Similar to terrestrial utility-scale projects requiring state-owned enterprise validation, space PV requires orbital verification. Access to launch opportunities and collaboration with aerospace research institutes is limited. Customer stickiness is high, and first-movers with established relationships hold a decisive advantage.

4. Investment Implications

The acceleration of commercial aerospace and the planning of space computing constellations create a tangible demand surge. We recommend focusing on companies that have already secured positions in the supply chain or possess proprietary technologies validated for space conditions.

Detailed Industry Analysis

I. Historical Context and Technology Trends

The application of solar power in space dates back to 1958 with the US Vanguard 1 satellite, which used six silicon PV cells to power a 5mW transmitter. Since then, silicon technology evolved from <10% to >15% efficiency. However, the limitations of silicon in high-radiation environments led to the adoption of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs). The Soviet Venera 3 satellite first used GaAs in 1965, and by 1995, the MEASAT commercial satellite demonstrated the viability of single-junction GaAs for full-lifecycle power. Subsequently, multi-junction GaAs grown on Germanium substrates became the industry standard.

Structural Evolution: From Rigid to Flexible
As satellite payloads and power demands increase, the focus has shifted from pure cell efficiency to system-level metrics: specific power (W/kg), storage volume, and deployability.
* Rigid Arrays: Used in early satellites (Vanguard 1, Dongfanghong IV). Characterized by robustness but heavy weight and bulky stowage.
* Foldable Arrays: Multi-segment rigid/semi-rigid wings connected by hinges. Used when power requirements are high but stability is still a concern.
* Flexible Arrays: Cells integrated onto ultra-thin flexible substrates. Rolled or folded for compact stowage. This is the dominant trend for modern mega-constellations where mass and volume are primary constraints. The successful deployment of ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) in 2021 and China’s space station flexible arrays marks this transition.

II. The Space Environment: Understanding the Constraints

To understand why certain technologies prevail, one must analyze the harsh conditions of space, which differ fundamentally from terrestrial environments in three key aspects: Spectrum/Irradiance, Matter/Radiation, and Temperature.

1. Irradiance and Spectrum (AM0 vs. AM1.5g)

• Intensity: Terrestrial standard spectrum (AM1.5g) is defined at 1000 W/m². In space, without atmospheric attenuation, the intensity (AM0) is approximately 1361 W/m².
• Spectral Range: The atmosphere filters out significant portions of the solar spectrum.
  • UV (<300nm): Absorbed by O₂, O₃, N₂.
  • Near-Infrared (900, 1100, 1400, 1900nm): Absorbed by water vapor.
  • Short-wave IR (1800, 2600nm): Absorbed by CO₂.
  • Space Spectrum (AM0): Contains full UV, visible, and IR spectra. This broader spectrum favors materials with wider bandgaps or tandem structures that can capture high-energy photons more effectively than silicon alone.

2. Matter and Radiation by Orbit

The composition of the space environment varies significantly by altitude, dictating the primary degradation mechanisms for PV modules.

• Atomic Oxygen (LEO): The most significant threat in LEO. AO reacts chemically with organic materials and some metals, causing mass loss and optical degradation (darkening) of cover glasses or encapsulants.
• High-Energy Electrons/Protons (MEO/GEO): Cause displacement damage in the crystal lattice of semiconductors, creating defect centers that reduce minority carrier lifetime and mobility, leading to efficiency decay.

3. Extreme Thermal Cycling

Space is a cold black background. Satellites experience rapid temperature swings as they orbit.
* Cycle: Approximately every 90 minutes (for LEO), the satellite passes through sunlight and Earth’s shadow.
* Temperature Range: Surface temperatures can soar above 150°C in sunlight and plummet below -100°C in shadow.
* Impact: Materials must withstand extreme thermal stress without delamination, cracking, or significant performance degradation. This necessitates robust encapsulation and interconnect designs.

III. Technology Deep Dive: Comparative Analysis

1. Triple-Junction Gallium Arsenide (GaAs): The Gold Standard with Limits

Physics and Performance:
GaAs is a III-V compound semiconductor. Its superiority stems from:
1. Direct Bandgap: Photon absorption is efficient, requiring thinner material.
2. Optimal Bandgap: At 1.42 eV, it closely matches the theoretical optimum (1.34 eV) for single-junction cells under solar spectrum.
3. Multi-Junction Architecture: By stacking layers with different bandgaps (GaInP top, GaAs middle, Ge bottom), the cell captures a broader range of the spectrum, pushing efficiencies >30%.

Radiation Hardness:
Displacement damage is the primary failure mode in space. GaAs exhibits remarkable resilience:
* Strong Bonds: The Ga-As bond has both covalent and ionic character, with short bond lengths, requiring higher energy to displace atoms.
* Self-Annealing: Defects tend to recombine or stabilize after initial irradiation, preventing continuous degradation.
* Data: Current attenuation in medium/high orbits is <10% over 10 years.

Cost and Supply Chain Bottlenecks:
* Epitaxy Complexity: Manufacturing involves Metal Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) to grow ~30 precise layers. Yield and quality control are difficult.
* Raw Material Scarcity:
* Germanium (Ge): Substrate material. Global reserves ~8,600 tons. 2024 production ~220 tons. Price ~¥12,950/kg (Dec 2025).
* Gallium (Ga): Key component. Global reserves ~230,000 tons. 2024 production ~760 tons. Price ~¥1,650/kg (Dec 2025).
* Strategic Value: Both are critical strategic minerals. Prices are supported by geopolitical factors and limited supply elasticity.
* Conclusion: While technically superior, GaAs is economically unviable for the thousands of satellites planned in commercial constellations.

2. Space-Adapted Crystalline Silicon (c-Si): The Pragmatic Choice

The P-Type Advantage:
Terrestrial markets have largely abandoned P-type PERC for N-type TOPCon/HJT due to efficiency gains. However, in space, P-type silicon is superior due to radiation physics:
* B-O Defects: In P-type Si, Boron-Oxygen complexes create deep-level traps. Minority carriers captured here are unlikely to be thermally re-excited, slowing recombination.
* Oxygen Vacancies: Radiation creates oxygen vacancies. In P-type Si, these have a low capture cross-section for electrons (minority carriers), preserving lifetime.
* N-Type Degradation: In N-type Si, radiation defects act as efficient recombination centers. Furthermore, radiation can induce type inversion (N to P), destroying the junction.

Cell Architecture Selection:
* BSF (Back Surface Field): Obsolete for space. The back surface field degrades rapidly under radiation, leading to fast power loss.
* xBC (Back Contact): Unsuitable. xBC relies on lateral current transport in the base. Radiation increases resistivity; even small increases cause disproportionate series resistance losses and power drop.
* PERC: Mature, reliable, and cost-effective. Good baseline for space applications.
* P-HJT (Heterojunction): The preferred high-end silicon option.
* Thinning: HJT performs well with thin wafers (60µm). Thin wafers reduce mass (critical for launch costs) and mitigate radiation damage (shorter diffusion path means carriers are collected before recombining at defect sites).
* Passivation: Amorphous silicon passivation provides excellent surface quality and high open-circuit voltage (Voc).
* Symmetry: High bifaciality and symmetric structure aid in thermal management and mechanical stability.

3. Perovskite and Tandem Cells: The Next Frontier

Why Perovskite for Space?
Perovskites (ABX₃ structure) were initially dismissed for terrestrial use due to instability against moisture and heat. Paradoxically, space is an ideal environment for Perovskites:
1. Vacuum Stability: The absence of water and oxygen removes the primary degradation pathways. Encapsulated perovskites show negligible chemical change in damp-heat tests, implying long-term stability in vacuum.
2. Radiation Tolerance: Perovskite defects are shallow (within bands), not deep (in bandgap). This minimizes non-radiative recombination. Studies indicate better radiation hardness than Si or GaAs.
3. Specific Power: Perovskite films are hundreds of nanometers thick. Flexible single-junction cells achieve ~30 W/g, compared to <1 W/g for rigid Si/GaAs modules. This is a game-changer for launch mass budgets.
4. Tandem Efficiency: Combining Perovskite (tunable bandgap 1.6-1.75 eV) with Silicon (1.1 eV) allows for efficient spectral splitting. Theoretical efficiency approaches 44%, matching multi-junction GaAs but at a fraction of the cost.

Technical Challenges & Testing:
* Formulation: Space-grade perovskites require specific ion combinations (e.g., Cs-based all-inorganic, or iodine-rich formulations for proton resistance) that differ from terrestrial optimized recipes.
* Testing Gaps: The industry lacks standardized testing for:
* Atomic Oxygen Erosion: Critical for LEO.
* Extreme Thermal Cycling: ±150°C cycles.
* Vibration/Shock: Launch loads.
* Current Status: Several prototypes have passed initial orbital verification (e.g., on Tianyan-24 satellite), showing stable voltage output over 9+ months.

IV. Competitive Landscape and Barriers

The SPV market is not a free-for-all. It is protected by three layers of moats:

1. Technological Moat:

   • Designing for space requires understanding complex interactions between materials and space environment factors (AO, radiation, thermal).
   • Proprietary encapsulation techniques (e.g., space-grade silicone, POE films with hydrophobic coatings) are critical.
   • Companies must have R&D teams with specific aerospace engineering expertise, not just PV knowledge.

2. Testing and Certification Moat:

   • Space environment simulation chambers are capital-intensive and scarce.
   • Validation cycles are long (months to years).
   • Accumulated data on material behavior in space is a proprietary asset. New entrants cannot easily replicate this data history.

3. Channel and Relationship Moat:

   • Satellite manufacturers and operators (often state-linked or large commercial entities) prefer proven suppliers.
   • Orbital verification requires launch opportunities, which are coordinated through aerospace institutes.
   • "National Team" enterprises (state-owned or strategically aligned private firms) have inherent advantages in accessing these channels.

Recommended Investment Targets

Based on the analysis of technology trends, cost structures, and competitive barriers, we recommend focusing on three segments: Cell Manufacturers, Equipment Suppliers, and Specialized Material Providers.

1. Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturers

Junda Shares (002865.SZ)

• Investment Logic: Leading battery cell manufacturer transitioning into space PV leader via Perovskite Tandems.
• Core Competencies:
  • Scale: Consistently ranked in the top 5 global PV cell shipments.
  • Technology: N-type TOPCon efficiency certified at 26.09%. Mid-scale xBC cells show 1-1.5% efficiency gain over mainstream N-type.
  • Space Pivot: Collaborating with Shangyi Optoelectronics (spin-off from CAS Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics).
  • Breakthrough: In Nov 2025, successfully produced the first industrialized N-type + Perovskite tandem cell. Lab efficiency reached 32.08%.
  • Strategic Partnership: Signed strategic agreement with Shangyi in Dec 2025. Junda will invest as a strategic shareholder. Shangyi brings exclusive space-environment formulation tech (radiation-resistant, thermal-stable perovskite) and orbital verification experience.
• Catalyst: Integration of Shangyi’s space-tech with Junda’s manufacturing scale could dominate the next-gen space PV market.

Risen Energy (300118.SZ)

• Investment Logic: Global HJT leader leveraging P-type HJT for niche space applications.
• Core Competencies:
  • HJT Leadership: "Voxi" module series leads in power (740W+) and efficiency (26.61%). Over 10GW HJT shipments globally.
  • Space Product: Developed P-type Ultra-Thin HJT modules (<70µm).
    • Advantages: High specific power, flexible (suitable for roll-out arrays), superior radiation resistance compared to N-type.
    • Track Record: 3 years of shipments, tens of thousands of units sold to European/US clients.
  • R&D: Perovskite/Silicon HJT tandem cell achieved 30.99% efficiency (certified).
• Catalyst: Growing demand for flexible, lightweight solar wings in commercial constellations favors Risen’s thin-film HJT technology.

Shanghai Gangwan (605598.SH)

• Investment Logic: Direct exposure to satellite power subsystems with verified Perovskite orbital performance.
• Core Competencies:
  • Subsidiary: Shanghai Fuxi Xinkong (est. 2023) focuses on space energy systems. Team comprises veterans from aerospace institutes with 15+ years of experience.
  • Track Record: Power systems deployed on 16 satellites. 40+ power systems/solar sails currently operating in orbit.
  • Clients: Major constellation projects including "Jilin-1" (Chang Guang Satellite), Geely Future Mobility, and Xiguang Aerospace.
  • Perovskite Verification: Perovskite cells on Tianyan-24 satellite have operated stably for >9 months. Voltage output (2.8-3.0V) shows negligible degradation compared to initial data.
  • Financials: New orders reached ¥34.02 million in H1 2025, showing rapid growth.
• Catalyst: As one of the few companies with actual orbital data on Perovskite stability, Shanghai Gangwan is uniquely positioned to secure future contracts for next-gen satellite power systems.

(Note: GCL Technology is also mentioned in the source as a relevant player in the broader ecosystem, particularly regarding silicon material supply, but detailed specifics were less prominent in the provided text compared to the above three.)

2. PV Equipment Suppliers

Maxwell Technologies (300751.SZ)

• Investment Logic: Leading supplier of HJT whole-line equipment, driving cost reduction and efficiency gains for space-adapted cells.
• Core Competencies:
  • HJT Whole-Line: Integrated PECVD, PVD, and screen printing capabilities.
  • HJT 4.0 Solution: Launched in 2025.
    • Capacity: 1.2GW per line.
    • Efficiency Gains: 34% less floor space, 25% less labor, 20% less energy consumption, 1.5mg/W less target material usage.
  • Perovskite/Tandem Equipment: Developed 200MW annual capacity whole-line equipment for large-size (G12 half-cut) Perovskite/HJT tandem cells. Secured first commercial order in Dec 2025.
• Catalyst: As cell manufacturers transition to HJT and Tandem architectures for space, Maxwell’s equipment becomes the essential enabler.

JieJia WeiChuang (300724.SZ)

• Investment Logic: Diversified equipment leader with strong presence in Perovskite产业化 (industrialization).
• Core Competencies:
  • Full Route Coverage: TOPCon, HJT, xBC, Perovskite, and Tandem.
  • Perovskite Solutions:
    • R&D lines compatible with various sizes.
    • 100MW Mass Production Lines for single-junction and tandem cells.
    • Key Tech: Industrial piezoelectric inkjet printing for Perovskite films; GW-level magnetron sputtering vertical vacuum coating equipment.
  • 2025 Milestones:
    • May: Won bids for PVD/RPD equipment from top-tier clients.
    • Aug: Shipped first piezoelectric inkjet printer; shipped Perovskite whole-line to Japanese client.
    • Sep: Shipped GW-level PVD equipment.
    • Nov: Won CNPC 300mmx300mm Perovskite whole-line bid.
    • Dec: Shipped core equipment for first commercial flexible Perovskite production line.
• Catalyst: JieJia’s ability to provide "turnkey" solutions for Perovskite mass production positions it as a key beneficiary of the technology’s scaling.

3. Specialized Material Suppliers

Ruihua Tai (300655.SZ)

• Investment Logic: Breaking international monopoly on high-performance PI (Polyimide) films, critical for space insulation and protection.
• Core Competencies:
  • Product: High-performance PI films (Thermal control, Electronic, Electrical).
  • Space Application:
    • MAM Product: PI composite film with high dimensional stability and high-temp sealing. Used in Chinese launch vehicles and manned space stations.
    • Atomic Oxygen Resistance: Developing AO-resistant PI films to protect LEO satellites from erosion, extending lifespan.
  • Status: Successfully supplied to China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology. Positive feedback from space搭载 (on-orbit) evaluations as of mid-2025.
• Catalyst: As satellite numbers grow, the demand for lightweight, durable, and radiation/AO-resistant insulation materials like PI film will rise proportionally. Ruihua’s domestic substitution status offers a strong competitive moat.

(Note: Saiwu Technology is also mentioned as a relevant material supplier, likely in the context of encapsulation films, but Ruihua was highlighted for its specific aerospace breakthroughs.)

Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook for Space Photovoltaics is robust, investors must consider the following risks:

1. Commercial Aerospace Development Slowdown:

   • The demand for SPV is directly tied to the launch rate of satellites. If global mega-constellation projects face delays due to financing constraints, regulatory hurdles (spectrum/orbit allocation disputes), or technical setbacks in launch vehicles, the demand for space solar cells will fall short of expectations.
   • Geopolitical tensions could also fragment the market, limiting export opportunities for Chinese suppliers.

2. Technology Iteration Risks:

   • Perovskite Stability: While initial orbital results are promising, long-term reliability (5-10 years) in the face of cumulative radiation dose and atomic oxygen erosion needs further validation. If degradation rates exceed thresholds, adoption may stall.
   • Silicon Limitations: If P-type silicon efficiency ceilings are reached too quickly, and tandem technologies fail to scale cost-effectively, the cost-performance advantage over GaAs might not be sufficient for high-end missions.
   • GaAs Cost Reduction: If GaAs manufacturing processes see unexpected breakthroughs in yield or if substitute substrates are found, the competitive pressure on Silicon/Perovskite could intensify.

3. Supply Chain Volatility:

   • Prices of critical raw materials like Germanium and Gallium are subject to geopolitical export controls and mining supply shocks. While this drives the case for Silicon/Perovskite, short-term volatility can impact overall sector margins.

4. Testing and Certification Bottlenecks:

   • The scarcity of space environment simulation facilities could slow down the R&D and qualification process for new entrants, delaying product launches and revenue recognition.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Rating: Overweight / Buy

We maintain a positive outlook on the Space Photovoltaics sector. The convergence of strategic urgency (orbit/spectrum scarcity) and technological maturation (cost-effective alternatives to GaAs) creates a multi-year growth runway. The shift towards commercial mega-constellations fundamentally changes the economic model of space power, favoring high-volume, low-cost, lightweight solutions.

Investment Horizon: Medium to Long Term (2025-2028)

Key Drivers for Upcoming Year (2026):
1. Increased launch frequency of Chinese commercial constellations (e.g., G60 Starlink, Guowang).
2. Commercial validation of Perovskite-Silicon tandem cells in orbit.
3. Expansion of HJT and thin-film silicon adoption in satellite power subsystems.

Investment View

The Space Photovoltaics market represents a classic "Blue Ocean" scenario within the broader new energy sector. Unlike the terrestrial PV market, which is characterized by fierce price competition and overcapacity, the space segment is defined by high barriers, high value-add, and strategic importance.

Strategic Allocation Recommendation:

1. Core Holdings: Focus on companies with proven orbital track records and exclusive partnerships with aerospace entities. Shanghai Gangwan stands out for its direct involvement in satellite power systems and verified Perovskite performance. Junda Shares offers a compelling blend of scale and cutting-edge tandem technology through its strategic alliance with Shangyi Optoelectronics.

2. Technology Enablers: Invest in equipment leaders who are facilitating the transition to next-gen cell architectures. Maxwell Technologies and JieJia WeiChuang are critical picks here, as they provide the tools necessary for mass-producing HJT and Perovskite cells, respectively. Their diversification across technology routes mitigates single-tech risk.

3. Material Moats: Ruihua Tai offers a defensive play with high upside. As a supplier of critical aerospace-grade PI films, it benefits from the general growth in satellite numbers regardless of the specific PV technology used, while its AO-resistant products address a specific pain point in LEO operations.

Conclusion:
The transition from GaAs to cost-effective Silicon and Perovskite technologies is not just a technical adjustment; it is an economic imperative for the commercialization of space. Investors who position themselves in companies leading this technological shift, particularly those with validated space qualifications and strong supply chain integration, are well-positioned to capture the value created by the upcoming explosion in space infrastructure deployment. We view Space Photovoltaics as a high-certainty, high-growth thematic opportunity for 2026 and beyond.

Appendix: Technical Data Reference

Table 1: Comparison of Space PV Technologies

Table 2: Space Environment Testing Standards (Proposed for Perovskites)

Source: Guojin Securities Research Institute, NASA, CAS, Company Reports.

Disclaimer:
This report is based on information available as of December 2025. The analysis reflects the views of the analyst at the time of writing. Market conditions, technology developments, and company performances are subject to change. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. Guojin Securities does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.