Space-Based Photovoltaics: The Emerging Second Growth Curve for the Solar Industry

Strategic Implications for HJT and Perovskite Technologies

Date: January 11, 2026
Sector: Power Equipment & New Energy
Rating: Overweight / Maintain
Analysts: Hong Yi, Hou Heqing, Wu Zhengyang (Dongxing Securities Institute)

Executive Summary

The photovoltaic (PV) industry is standing on the precipice of a structural transformation driven by the nascent but rapidly evolving sector of space-based solar power. Triggered by recent high-profile conceptualizations from global tech leaders—specifically Elon Musk’s proposal for a space-based AI computing center—the market is beginning to price in a potential "second growth curve" for solar demand that extends far beyond terrestrial applications.

This report analyzes the technological and economic shifts required to support space-based energy infrastructure. While traditional ground-based PV technologies like TOPCon dominate current markets, they face significant limitations in space environments, primarily regarding radiation resistance and weight-to-power ratios. Consequently, we identify a clear technological pivot toward Heterojunction (HJT) technology in the medium term and Perovskite tandem cells in the long term. These technologies offer superior specific power (W/g), radiation hardness, and flexibility, addressing the critical constraints of launch costs and orbital durability.

We maintain an Overweight rating on the Power Equipment & New Energy sector. The immediate catalyst is the acceleration of low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite deployments, while the long-term thesis is underpinned by the potential for gigawatt-scale space data centers. We recommend investors focus on companies with advanced capabilities in HJT and Perovskite manufacturing, as well as upstream equipment suppliers. Key beneficiaries include Junda Shares, Risen Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy, and GCL Technology.

Key Takeaways

1. The Catalyst: From Concept to Quantifiable Demand

The primary driver for this thematic shift is the convergence of aerospace ambition and energy needs. Elon Musk recently proposed a构想 (concept) for a space-based AI computing center, aiming to launch 1 million tons of satellites annually into sun-synchronous orbits. Each satellite is projected to provide 100 kW of AI computing power, culminating in an annual addition of 100 GW of computational capacity.

While this remains a forward-looking scenario, it provides a tangible framework for estimating future demand:
* Demand Modeling: Assuming a conservative photovoltaic system conversion efficiency of 30%, supporting 100 GW of space-based computing power would directly catalyze over 800 GW of space PV installation demand.
* Scale Comparison: This hypothetical annual demand exceeds the current total global annual new installations for ground-based PV, highlighting the massive scale potential if the concept matures.
* Industry Validation: Leading Chinese PV manufacturers are already pivoting strategic focus. In December 2025, Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman of Jinko Solar, explicitly stated the company’s intent to explore space PV opportunities, leveraging ground-based technical accumulations. Similarly, Mr. Gao Jifan, Chairman of Trina Solar, emphasized accelerating the commercialization of perovskite modules to unlock the era of interstellar computing power.

2. Technological Imperative: Why Ground-Based Tech Falls Short

Space environments present extreme challenges that render mainstream terrestrial PV technologies suboptimal. The core requirements for space PV are:
1. High Efficiency: Maximizing power output per unit area.
2. Lightweight: Minimizing mass to reduce exorbitant launch costs.
3. Environmental Resilience: Withstanding extreme temperature fluctuations and high-energy cosmic radiation.

The Limitations of TOPCon:
Currently, Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) is the dominant technology for ground-based utility-scale projects. However, its application in space is hindered by:
* Insufficient Radiation Hardness: TOPCon structures are more susceptible to degradation from proton and electron bombardment in space.
* Weight Constraints: The structural requirements for TOPCon modules limit the degree of lightweighting possible, resulting in a lower specific power ratio compared to emerging alternatives.

3. Medium-Term Solution: The Rise of P-Type HJT

As the industry searches for a viable alternative to expensive compound semiconductors, P-type Heterojunction (HJT) technology emerges as the most promising medium-term candidate for satellite solar wings.

• Technical Synergy: HJT technology inherently supports ultra-thin wafer processing. By reducing wafer thickness, manufacturers can significantly lower the mass per watt of power generated, a critical metric for space economics.
• Performance Advantages: HJT cells exhibit superior low-temperature coefficients, meaning they perform better in the cold environment of space compared to conventional silicon cells. Furthermore, their amorphous silicon passivation layers provide enhanced stability against radiation-induced degradation.
• Market Positioning: While not yet the standard for space, HJT’s compatibility with existing silicon supply chains and its performance profile position it to gradually replace Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) in certain non-critical or cost-sensitive satellite applications.

4. Long-Term Disruption: Perovskite Tandem Cells

Looking further ahead, Perovskite tandem batteries represent the next generation of space PV technology, offering transformative advantages in efficiency and weight.

• Efficiency Breakthroughs: Theoretical maximum conversion efficiencies for perovskite tandems can reach 45%, surpassing the ~30% ceiling of current commercial GaAs products. Higher efficiency translates directly to reduced array area and structural mass.
• Unmatched Specific Power:
  • Weight Reduction: Perovskite materials are over 90% lighter than GaAs and 92% lighter than crystalline silicon.
  • Specific Power Metrics: Perovskite cells can achieve a specific power of 10–30 W/g. In stark contrast, GaAs offers ~3.8 W/g, and standard crystalline silicon offers merely ~0.38 W/g.
  • Cost Impact: Utilizing perovskite technology could reduce a satellite’s weight by over 200 kg, potentially lowering single-satellite launch costs by millions of dollars.
• Design Flexibility: The flexible nature of perovskite films allows for conformal integration onto curved or irregular satellite surfaces, enabling novel solar wing designs that rigid silicon or GaAs panels cannot accommodate.
• Challenges to Resolve: Before mass adoption, the industry must solve issues related to long-term stability, consistency, and lifespan in the harsh vacuum of space. However, R&D progress is accelerating.

5. Economic Contrast: The Cost Barrier of Current Standards

To understand the investment opportunity in new technologies, one must appreciate the prohibitive cost of the current status quo.

Source: Dongxing Securities Institute Analysis

The disparity is stark: Space-grade GaAs panels cost approximately 1,000 RMB/W, whereas terrestrial PV stations operate at under 1 RMB/W. This 1000x cost differential creates a massive incentive for developing high-performance, lower-cost alternatives like HJT and Perovskites that can bridge the gap between terrestrial affordability and space-grade performance.

Industry Dynamics & Supply Chain Implications

Accelerating LEO Satellite Deployment

In the short term, the demand for space PV is not solely dependent on the futuristic "space data center" concept. The ongoing proliferation of Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations (e.g., Starlink, Guowang) is already driving incremental demand for high-efficiency, lightweight solar arrays. As satellite power requirements grow to support higher bandwidth and onboard processing, the limitations of traditional silicon become more apparent, creating an immediate entry point for HJT and advanced thin-film technologies.

Strategic Shifts Among Industry Leaders

The commentary from top-tier executives signals a coordinated industry shift:
* Jinko Solar: Leveraging its massive scale in N-type TOPCon and emerging HJT lines to explore aerospace adaptations.
* Trina Solar: Focusing heavily on the commercialization timeline of perovskite, recognizing it as the key to unlocking next-generation space applications.
* Equipment Manufacturers: The transition to HJT and Perovskite requires new manufacturing equipment (e.g., PECVD for HJT, coating/lamination tools for Perovskite). This benefits upstream equipment makers who can provide specialized solutions for high-precision, low-defect production required for space-grade cells.

Investment Themes

1. Technology Substitution: Watch for the gradual substitution of GaAs with HJT in mid-tier satellite applications, followed by Perovskite in high-performance missions.
2. Value Chain Migration: Value will accrue to companies that control the proprietary processes for thinning wafers (for HJT) and stabilizing perovskite layers.
3. Integration Capabilities: Companies that can offer integrated "cell-module-array" solutions tailored for aerospace clients will command higher margins.

Risks / Headwinds

While the potential is significant, investors must remain cognizant of the substantial risks associated with this emerging theme.

1. Execution Risk of Space Data Centers

The primary bullish thesis relies on the realization of Musk’s 100GW space computing vision. This is a highly speculative, long-term scenario. Technical hurdles in heat dissipation, data transmission latency, and orbital logistics may delay or scale down these ambitions. If the "space data center" concept fails to materialize or is significantly delayed, the projected 800GW demand surge will not occur.

2. Technological Maturity and Reliability

• Perovskite Stability: Perovskite cells are notoriously sensitive to moisture, oxygen, and UV light. While encapsulation techniques are improving, proving multi-year stability in the unforgiving space environment (with atomic oxygen erosion and intense radiation) is a significant engineering challenge. Failure rates in orbit are costly and reputationally damaging.
• HJT Yield Rates: Achieving the high yields and uniformity required for space applications with HJT technology may take longer than anticipated, slowing adoption.

3. Launch Cost Constraints

Even with lightweight panels, the economics of space PV are tethered to launch costs. While reusable rockets have lowered costs, any stagnation or increase in launch pricing could dampen the economic viability of large-scale solar arrays in orbit.

4. Policy and Regulatory Uncertainty

• Space Traffic Management: Increased satellite density raises concerns about space debris and collision risks, potentially leading to stricter international regulations on satellite launches and orbital slots.
• Export Controls: As space technology becomes strategically vital, geopolitical tensions could lead to export restrictions on advanced PV technologies or aerospace components, impacting global supply chains.

5. Market Demand Volatility

The current space PV market is small. A slowdown in government space budgets or a consolidation in the commercial satellite sector could lead to short-term demand fluctuations that disproportionately affect niche suppliers.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Rating: Overweight (Maintain)

We maintain our Overweight stance on the Power Equipment and New Energy sector, with a specific tactical overweight on companies exposed to next-generation PV technologies (HJT/Perovskite).

Rationale:
1. Valuation Support: The broader PV sector has undergone significant correction and supply-side optimization ("anti-involution" policies), providing a safer entry point for thematic investments.
2. Optionality Value: Exposure to space PV provides a valuable call option on future growth. Even if the 800GW scenario is distant, the near-term adoption in LEO satellites provides a credible revenue stream.
3. Technological Moat: Companies that successfully qualify their HJT or Perovskite products for aerospace use will establish a high-barrier moat, commanding premium pricing and long-term contracts.

Outlook for Next 3-6 Months:
* Catalysts: Watch for announcements regarding successful orbital tests of HJT or Perovskite panels by major satellite operators.
* Policy: Monitor any specific subsidies or national strategic plans related to commercial aerospace and space energy infrastructure in China and globally.
* Earnings: Focus on R&D expenditure guidance from leading PV firms, indicating commitment to space-grade product development.

Investment View

Core Investment Logic

The intersection of aerospace expansion and photovoltaic innovation creates a unique investment niche. The logic is twofold:
1. Near-Term: The relentless launch of LEO satellites drives demand for higher efficiency, lighter weight solar panels, favoring HJT over traditional PERC/TOPCon.
2. Long-Term: The potential for space-based computing and energy transmission unlocks a market size comparable to the entire current terrestrial PV industry, with Perovskite as the enabling technology.

Recommended Strategy

Investors should adopt a "Barbell Strategy":
* Core Holdings: Maintain positions in established PV leaders with strong balance sheets and active R&D in HJT/Perovskite (e.g., Jinko, Trina).
* Satellite Plays: Allocate capital to specialized players in the HJT and Perovskite supply chain, particularly those with proven aerospace partnerships or specialized equipment capabilities.

Key Stocks to Watch

(Note: Investors should also monitor equipment manufacturers such as Maxwell Technologies or Jinchen Machinery, though not explicitly listed in the source's final tickers, they are critical enablers of the HJT/Perovskite transition.)

Conclusion

The narrative of "Space PV" is transitioning from science fiction to industrial strategy. While the 800GW demand figure is a long-term theoretical ceiling, the directional trend is undeniable: space applications require higher efficiency and lower weight, playing directly into the strengths of HJT and Perovskite technologies. For institutional investors, this represents a chance to invest in the technological evolution of the solar industry, rather than just its cyclical volume growth. We advise accumulating positions in companies demonstrating tangible progress in space-qualified PV technologies, while maintaining strict risk management regarding the timeline of commercial adoption.

Appendix: Analyst Information & Disclosures

Analyst Team:
* Hong Yi: Master of Finance, Sun Yat-sen University; CPA, CIIA. Joined Dongxing Securities in 2016. Covered Power Equipment, New Energy, and Environmental Protection. Awarded Wind Gold Analyst (5th place) in 2020.
* Hou Heqing: Master of Finance; 3 years of industrial investment experience. Joined Dongxing Securities in 2022. Covers the Electrical Equipment and New Energy industry.
* Wu Zhengyang: Master of Financial Engineering, University of Michigan; CFA. 5 years of investment research experience. Joined Dongxing Securities in 2022. Covers Automotive, Parts, Power Equipment, and New Energy.

Disclaimer:
This report is prepared by Dongxing Securities Institute. The information contained herein is derived from public sources believed to be reliable, but Dongxing Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The views expressed are those of the analysts and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Investors should make their own investment decisions and bear the associated risks.

Rating System Definition:
* Overweight (Look Bullish): Expected to outperform the market benchmark (CSI 300 / Hang Seng / S&P 500) by >5% over the next 6 months.
* Neutral: Expected to perform within -5% to +5% of the benchmark.
* Underweight (Look Bearish): Expected to underperform the benchmark by >5%.

Contact:
* Beijing: 16F, Xinsheng Building, 5 Jinrong Street, Xicheng District. Tel: 010-66554070
* Shanghai: 23F, Ruifeng International Building, 248 Yangshupu Road, Hongkou District. Tel: 021-25102800
* Shenzhen: 46F, New World Center, 6009 Yitian Road, Futian District. Tel: 0755-83239601