Photovoltaic Equipment: Silicon-Based HJT as the Optimal Solution for Space PV; Equipment Suppliers Poised to Benefit from a Historic Opportunity

Rating: Overweight (Maintained)
Date: January 14, 2026
Source: Soochow Securities Research Institute

Executive Summary

The global satellite launch market is experiencing exponential growth, driven by massive low-earth orbit (LEO) constellation deployments. With China’s Radio Innovation Institute applying for rights to 200,000 LEO satellites and SpaceX accelerating its 42,000-satellite Starlink network, the demand for space-based photovoltaic (PV) power is scaling toward the gigawatt (GW) level. Traditional triple-junction gallium arsenide (GaAs) batteries face significant constraints in capacity, cost, and raw material availability, rendering them unsuitable for GW-scale deployment. Consequently, silicon-based Heterojunction (HJT) technology has emerged as the optimal short-term alternative due to its flexibility, weight reduction capabilities, cost efficiency, and unrestricted raw material supply. In the long term, the industry is expected to transition toward Perovskite-HJT tandem cells.

Simultaneously, overseas terrestrial PV markets, particularly in the United States, remain robust. Chinese PV equipment manufacturers dominate the global supply chain, holding significant market shares in key processing stages. We maintain an Overweight rating on the PV equipment sector, highlighting the dual growth drivers of space PV commercialization and accelerated overseas expansion. We recommend focusing on leading equipment suppliers such as Maxwell Technologies (Maiwei Shares), Jingsheng Electromechanical, Autowell, and Gaoce Shares.

Key Takeaways

1. Space PV: A New Frontier Driving GW-Level Demand

The architecture of global space infrastructure is shifting dramatically. The sheer volume of planned satellite constellations necessitates a reliable, lightweight, and scalable power source.
* Demand Surge: The application for 200,000 LEO satellite rights by Chinese entities and the continued expansion of SpaceX’s Starlink indicate a structural shift toward GW-level space energy requirements.
* Technological Pivot: While triple-junction GaAs cells have historically been the standard for space applications, their high cost and limited production capacity cannot meet the scale of modern mega-constellations.
* HJT as the Immediate Solution: Silicon-based HJT technology offers a compelling value proposition for space applications:
* Flexibility & Weight: Enables easier integration into satellite structures and reduces launch mass costs.
* Cost Efficiency: Significantly lower manufacturing costs compared to GaAs.
* Supply Chain Security: Unlike GaAs, silicon materials are abundant and not subject to the same geopolitical or scarcity risks.
* Long-Term Evolution: The technology roadmap points toward Perovskite-HJT tandem cells, which promise higher efficiency limits, further solidifying the strategic importance of HJT foundational technology.

2. Robust Overseas Terrestrial Markets Accelerate Equipment Exports

Beyond space applications, the terrestrial PV market, especially in the United States, provides a strong secondary growth engine for Chinese equipment makers.
* US Market Growth: According to Mordor Intelligence forecasts from early 2025, US PV installations are projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of over 20% between 2024 and 2029. Installed capacity in 2025 is expected to exceed 60 GW.
* Chinese Dominance: China’s dominance in the PV supply chain is absolute. In 2024, Chinese capacity accounted for over 80% of global production across polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules. This vertical integration creates a powerful ecosystem for equipment exporters.

3. Competitive Landscape: Chinese Equipment Leaders Hold Dominant Market Shares

Chinese equipment manufacturers have achieved near-monopolistic positions in several critical PV production steps. This market power ensures that any global capacity expansion—whether terrestrial or space-related—directly benefits these leaders.

Note: Data reflects 2024 market estimates as cited in the report.

4. Investment Recommendations

We identify a clear investment thesis centered on the technological shift to HJT for space applications and the sustained global demand for PV infrastructure.

• Top Picks:

  • Maxwell Technologies (Maiwei Shares): As the leader in HJT turnkey equipment (70-80% share), it is the direct beneficiary of the shift from GaAs to Silicon-HJT in space and the general adoption of HJT on Earth.
  • Jingsheng Electromechanical: Its leadership in single-crystal furnaces positions it well for both terrestrial high-efficiency cell production and specialized space-grade silicon wafer requirements.
  • Autowell: Dominance in stringer machines, particularly with 0BB technology, aligns with the industry's push for higher module efficiency and lower silver consumption.
  • Gaoce Shares: High market share in slicing equipment ensures steady revenue from wafer production expansions.

• Watch List:

  • JieJia WeiChuang: Monitor for developments in turnkey equipment solutions.
  • Jingshan Light Machine: Keep an eye on progress in Perovskite equipment, relevant for the long-term tandem cell roadmap.

Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook is positive, investors should be aware of the following risks:

1. Space PV Industrialization Delays: The timeline for deploying GW-scale space PV systems may be longer than anticipated due to regulatory hurdles, launch capacity constraints, or technical challenges in space deployment.
2. Technological R&D Uncertainty: The transition to silicon-based HJT for space requires rigorous validation. If R&D efforts by manufacturers fail to meet the stringent reliability and efficiency standards required for space environments, adoption rates could slow.
3. Geopolitical Trade Barriers: As Chinese equipment makers expand overseas, particularly into the US and European markets, they may face increased trade restrictions, tariffs, or "de-risking" policies that could impact order books.
4. Competition from Alternative Technologies: While GaAs is currently constrained, breakthroughs in other compound semiconductor technologies or rapid advancements in pure Perovskite stability could alter the competitive landscape.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Rating: Overweight (Maintained)

We believe the PV equipment sector is entering a new growth phase driven by two distinct but complementary narratives: the historic opportunity of space-based solar power and the resilient growth of overseas terrestrial markets. The technological pivot to silicon-based HJT represents a structural change that favors established Chinese equipment leaders with proven mass-production capabilities.

The convergence of high market share (70-80% in key segments) and expanding total addressable market (TAM) from space applications provides a strong margin of safety and upside potential for the recommended stocks. The sector is expected to outperform the broader market benchmark over the next 6-12 months.

Investment View

The narrative surrounding PV equipment is evolving from a story of cyclical terrestrial capacity expansion to one of technological disruption and new market creation.

1. The "Space Alpha":
The most significant incremental driver is the emergence of space PV as a viable GW-scale market. The limitation of GaAs is not just economic but logistical; it simply cannot be produced fast enough for tens of thousands of satellites. Silicon-based HJT fills this void. For investors, this means that companies like Maxwell Technologies are no longer just playing in the terrestrial solar game but are becoming critical infrastructure providers for the space economy. This re-rating potential is substantial.

2. The "Terrestrial Beta":
The US market’s projected 20%+ CAGR through 2029 provides a stable revenue base. Given that Chinese firms control >80% of the global supply chain, any global growth inevitably flows through these equipment makers. The high market shares of Jingsheng, Gaoce, and Autowell act as a moat, ensuring they capture the majority of value from new capacity additions.

3. Strategic Allocation:
We advise institutional investors to overweight the PV equipment sector, with a specific focus on the HJT value chain. The synergy between space demand (requiring lightweight, efficient HJT) and terrestrial demand (requiring cost-effective, high-volume HJT) creates a unique double-engine growth model for leaders like Maxwell Technologies.

Conclusion:
The intersection of space exploration ambitions and renewable energy transition has created a rare inflection point. Silicon-based HJT is the bridge technology that makes space solar scalable today, while laying the groundwork for future Perovskite tandem innovations. With dominant market positions and robust order visibility from both space and terrestrial sectors, the recommended equipment leaders are well-positioned to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns. We reiterate our Overweight stance on the sector.