Equity Research: New Energy & Power Equipment Weekly
Date: January 20, 2026
Sector: Renewable Energy, Grid Infrastructure, Energy Storage, Hydrogen
Analysts: Yao Yao (S1130512080001), Zhang Jiawen (S1130523090006)
Contacts: Lu Wenjie, Fan Xiaopeng, Peng Zhiqiang
Title: Space PV Accelerates US "Autonomy" Narrative; Offshore Wind & Grid Equipment See Major Catalysts
Executive Summary
This week, the New Energy and Power Equipment sector witnessed significant structural shifts driven by technological breakthroughs in space-based photovoltaics (PV), robust policy support for grid infrastructure, and stronger-than-expected offshore wind auctions in Europe. Our core investment thesis centers on three pivotal developments:
- Space Photovoltaics as a High-Barrier Growth Engine: The convergence of ground-based data center power deficits and emerging space computing needs has intensified the US demand for PV supply chain autonomy. Recent strategic partnerships and investments by leading Chinese firms (e.g., Junda Shares, Risen Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy) validate the high entry barriers of this sector. We believe Chinese manufacturers, leveraging their superior equipment, capacity, and material advantages, will play a critical role in enabling global space PV deployment, thereby capturing high-margin opportunities despite trade barriers.
- Grid Infrastructure Supercycle: The State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) announced a "15th Five-Year Plan" investment of CNY 4 trillion, a 40% increase from the previous period, establishing a long-term bullish foundation for domestic grid equipment. Simultaneously, aging infrastructure in North America, exacerbated by transformer failures and AI-driven data center load growth, is accelerating the replacement cycle. Companies with strong export capabilities to North America (e.g., Sieyuan Electric) are poised for sustained earnings growth.
- Offshore Wind & Lithium Battery Recovery: The UK’s AR7 offshore wind auction resulted in 8.4GW of signed projects, exceeding market expectations of 6-7GW, which strengthens the export outlook for Chinese pile and cable suppliers. In the lithium sector, new regulations on battery recycling and strategic capital injections (e.g., CATL into Fulin Jinggong) signal industry consolidation and improved supply-demand dynamics post-seasonal lows.
We maintain an Overweight rating on the sector, with specific focus on companies benefiting from the "Space PV" narrative, grid equipment exporters, and offshore wind supply chain leaders.
Key Takeaways
1. Photovoltaics & Energy Storage: The "Space PV" Catalyst and Q4 Bottoming Out
1.1 Space PV: Reinforcing the "Autonomy" Narrative and High Barriers
The concept of "Space Photovoltaics" has emerged as the strongest thematic主线 (main line) for 2026, driven by the resonance between ground-based data center power shortages and future space computing energy needs. The US government’s extreme trade barriers have paradoxically strengthened its desire for supply chain "autonomy," creating a unique opportunity for Chinese firms that possess the necessary technical reserves.
Recent Industry Developments Validate High Barriers:
Progress in space PV is concentrated among firms with pre-existing R&D layouts and strategic partnerships, confirming the sector’s high technical threshold. Key developments this week include:
- Junda Shares (002865.SZ): Invested CNY 30 million to acquire a 16.67% stake in Shanghai Xingyi Xineng Technology, a commercialization vehicle for the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics (SIOM). Junda will also form an exclusive joint venture with Xingyi to manufacture CPI (Colorless Polyimide) films and combined CPI-crystalline silicon products. This marks a strategic extension from cells to encapsulation materials.
- Risen Energy (300118.SZ): Entered a strategic cooperation with Shanghai Gangwan to develop "Perovskite + p-HJT Tandem Technology" for space energy applications, focusing on R&D, verification, and industrialization.
- Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SH): Announced plans to acquire control of Zhongshan Dehua Chip, a specialist in GaAs (Gallium Arsenide) space solar cells and compound semiconductor epitaxial wafers, via share issuance and cash payment.
- Trina Solar (688599.SH): Updated investors on its comprehensive layout in space PV, covering crystalline silicon (HJT), perovskite tandem, and III-V group GaAs multi-junction cells, citing leading R&D results.
Material & Component Breakthroughs:
* Woge Optoelectronics: Its self-developed CPI core technology has achieved on-orbit application for flexible solar wing substrates with head commercial aerospace clients.
* Ruihuatai: Satellite-grade wide-width PI films and low-orbit satellite flexible solar wing encapsulation CPI films have received certification and are undergoing on-orbit evaluation.
* Lens Technology & Kaisheng Technology: Both are advancing Ultra-Thin Glass (UTG) solutions for flexible solar wings, with Lens Technology’s aerospace-grade UTG becoming a preferred material for head satellite clients.
Investment Implication:
The US currently has ~60GW of module capacity but only ~2GW of cell capacity (mostly legacy PERC), relying heavily on Southeast Asian imports. Under the "Inflation Reduction Act" (IRA) and related foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules, local content requirements are rising (50%-85% by 2029). Chinese firms, with their complete supply chain and technological lead, are well-positioned to benefit from the urgent need for capacity expansion abroad, particularly in equipment and high-value materials.
Recommended Stocks:
* Equipment: Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical, Lianchuang Numerical Control, Aotewei, Shuangliang Eco-Energy, Gaoce Shares, Yujing Shares, Maxwell (Maiwei), Jiejia Weichuang, Laplace.
* Cell/Module Makers with Overseas Capacity: Junda Shares, Canadian Solar, JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, Hengdian DMEGC, Boway Alloy.
* Space PV Specific: Junda Shares, Maxwell, Risen Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy, Shanghai Gangwan, Lens Technology, Woge Optoelectronics, Ruihuatai, Kaisheng Technology.
1.2 Main Chain Performance: Confirming the Q4 "Performance Bottom"
Major PV manufacturers have released their 2025 annual performance previews, indicating a clear "bottoming out" trend in Q4 operations, albeit with significant asset impairments affecting reported profits.
| Company | 2025 Estimated Net Loss (CNY bn) | Q4 Estimated Net Loss (CNY bn) | Key Drivers for Q4 Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| JA Solar | 4.5 - 4.8 | 0.95 - 1.25 | Weak terminal demand post-Q3 rush; Silver price surge; Asset impairments. |
| TCL Zhonghuan | 8.2 - 9.6 | 2.4 - 3.8 | Significant impairment of fixed assets due to tech iteration & capacity utilization assessment. |
| Junda Shares | 1.2 - 1.5 | 0.78 - 1.08 | Cost pass-through difficulties; Asset impairments. |
Analysis:
The widened Q4 losses compared to Q3 are primarily attributed to:
1. Demand Timing: Q3 export front-loading led to weaker Q4 terminal demand.
2. Cost Pressures: Rising silver prices increased manufacturing costs, while silicon cost increases faced resistance in downstream pass-through.
3. Asset Impairments: Proactive write-downs of fixed assets related to older technologies (PERC) and overcapacity.
Outlook:
With asset quality optimized on the balance sheet, these companies are "traveling light" into 2026. We expect a more pronounced elasticity in profit improvement as the industry recovers in 2026. The "performance bottom" has been secondary confirmed, supporting a bullish view on the sector’s valuation repair.
1.3 Price Trends & Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Silicon Material: Prices have risen above the cash cost of leading enterprises. Monthly increase: +10%.
- Wafers: Current quotes cover full costs for leading firms. Monthly change: 0%.
- Cells: Prices rose +3% WoW (+5% MoM) due to rising silver prices and limited supply. Profitability remains under pressure but is improving.
- Modules: Prices rose +2% WoW (+2% MoM). Leading firms are raising quotes in response to industry self-discipline and cost pressures, though market acceptance remains cautious due to weak demand.
- Auxiliary Materials:
- Glass: Prices stable. Inventory days decreased by 1.23 days to 38.94 days. Demand improved slightly due to restocking ahead of export tax rebate changes.
- EVA Film: Prices rose to CNY 8,475-9,200/ton due to tight spot supply and low petrochemical inventory.
2. Wind Power: UK AR7 Auction Exceeds Expectations, Boosting Export Outlook
2.1 UK AR7 Auction Results: A Positive Surprise
The UK government announced the results of the Allocation Round 7 (AR7) for offshore wind contracts for difference (CfD).
* Total Capacity Signed: 8.4 GW, significantly exceeding the market consensus of 6-7 GW.
* Breakdown: 8.2 GW Fixed-bottom; 192.5 MW Floating.
* Strike Prices:
* Fixed-bottom: £64-65/MWh (indexed to 2012 prices).
* Floating: £155/MWh.
* Note: These prices are ~10% higher than AR6 results, ensuring better developer yields and likely higher conversion rates from auction to grid connection.
Delivery Timeline & Supply Chain Impact:
Projects are scheduled for delivery between 2028-2032. We anticipate that supply chain orders for piles, cables, and turbines will land progressively in 2026-2027. Given the current capacity constraints in European pile and cable manufacturing, this reinforces the export potential for Chinese suppliers.
Missed Projects:
The Mona & Morgan projects did not secure contracts in AR7 but are expected to participate in AR8 later this year. JERA Nex bp’s acquisition of EnBW’s stake in the Mona project and the signing of a lease agreement with The Crown Estate demonstrate continued development commitment.
2.2 Investment Strategy: Three Core Lines
We recommend focusing on three main investment themes for 2026:
- OEMs (Turbine Manufacturers): Benefiting from improved profitability and optimized industry格局 (landscape).
- Top Picks: Goldwind Science & Technology, YunDa Shares, Mingyang Smart Energy, Sany Heavy Energy.
- Watch: Dongfang Electric.
- Subsea Cables & Foundations (Piles): Benefiting from deep-sea project penetration in China and overseas expansion.
- Top Picks: Dajin Heavy Industry (Undervalued, high order visibility), Orient Cable, Haili Wind Power.
- Watch: Zhongtian Technology, Taisheng Wind Power, Qifan Cable, Tianshun Wind Energy.
- Components: Benefiting from technological changes and rising overseas market share.
- Top Picks: Jinlei Shares, Riyue Shares, Times New Material.
- Watch: Xinqianglian, Delijia.
3. Grid Equipment: "15th Five-Year Plan" Investment Surge & North American Replacement Cycle
3.1 Domestic Catalyst: SGCC’s CNY 4 Trillion Investment Plan
The State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) announced its "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) fixed asset investment will reach CNY 4 trillion, a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan." This sets a solid foundation for long-term high prosperity in the domestic grid sector.
Key Focus Areas:
* Transmission: Accelerating UHV DC outbound channels. Cross-regional transmission capacity to increase by >30% by the end of the 15th FYP.
* Beneficiaries: Pinggao Electric, Xuji Electric, China XD Electric, NARI Technology, TBEA.
* Distribution & Intelligence: Enhancing urban/rural distribution networks, microgrids, and implementing "AI+" initiatives for digital empowerment.
* Beneficiaries: Sanxing Medical, Hexing Electrical, Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Electronics.
3.2 International Catalyst: North American Grid Aging & AI Load Growth
The logic for grid replacement and power shortage in North America has strengthened:
1. Infrastructure Failure: A transformer explosion in Cleveland, Ohio (Jan 13) caused widespread outages, highlighting the critical state of aging US grid equipment.
2. AI Data Center Demand: The DOE and LBNL estimate data center electricity consumption will rise from 176 TWh (2023) to an additional 325-580 TWh by 2028. Trump’s directive for tech companies to pay for data center electricity further underscores the cost and capacity pressures.
3. Supply Shortage: North America relies on imports for ~80% of its power transformers. Lead times have extended to 100+ weeks, creating a severe bottleneck for AI data center deployments. A 30% supply gap is expected in 2025, persisting until 2030.
Investment Opportunity:
Chinese companies with rapid delivery capabilities and channel advantages are breaking into the North American market.
* Top Pick: Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ).
* Q4 2025 Performance: Revenue CNY 7.38 bn (+46.1% YoY); Net Profit CNY 970 mn (+74.1% YoY), significantly beating expectations.
* Drivers: Release of overseas orders since 2Q23; Delivery of high-margin domestic 750kV orders.
* 2026 Outlook: Continued strong delivery of domestic/overseas transformer orders. New businesses (Supercapacitors for AIDC, UHV converter valves via IGCT joint venture, Energy Storage with CATL) are expected to contribute significantly.
* Forecast: 2026-2027 Net Profit estimated at CNY 4.31 bn / 5.76 bn (+36% / +34% YoY).
3.3 Grid Investment Themes for 2026
| Theme | Logic | Key Beneficiaries |
|---|---|---|
| Power Transformers | Global supply-demand mismatch. Hard commodity for data center hubs. High premiums for exporters with quick delivery. | Sieyuan Electric, Huaming Equipment, Shenma Power, Jinbei Electric. |
| Solid-State Transformers (SST) | Disruptive tech for high-density compute (600kW-1MW/rack). Enables "observable, measurable, controllable" power. Commercialization expected in 2027. | Jinpan Technology, Eaglerise, Sifang Shares, China XD, TBEA, Xinte Electric. |
| Domestic Valuation Repair | "15th FYP" kick-off. UHV approval acceleration. Smart meter upgrades (Volume & Price rise) in Q1 2026. | Pinggao, Xuji, China XD, NARI (UHV); Sanxing Medical, Hexing Electrical (Meters). |
4. Lithium Batteries: Regulatory Clarity & Strategic Consolidation
4.1 New Recycling Regulations: "Vehicle-Battery Integrated Scrapping"
Six ministries, including the MIIT, issued the Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles, effective April 1, 2026.
* Core Mechanism: Establishes a "Digital ID" for batteries, enabling full-lifecycle traceability from production to recycling.
* Impact: Addresses the pain point of monitoring waste battery flows. With NEV sales exceeding 16 million units in 2025, a massive wave of battery retirements is imminent (estimated >1 million tons by 2030). This regulation formalizes the recycling chain, benefiting compliant leaders.
4.2 Strategic Capital Moves & Supply Constraints
- Fulin Jinggong (300432.SZ) & CATL:
- Fulin Jinggong plans a private placement of CNY 3.175 billion, introducing CATL as a strategic investor.
- Funds will support a 500,000-ton LFP project, EV drive systems, robot joints, and low-altitude aircraft power systems.
- Strategic Agreement: CATL commits to prioritizing the purchase of no less than 3 million tons of LFP from Fulin Jinggong over the next 3 years. This deepens supply chain binding and supports Fulin’s expansion into solid-state and sodium-ion battery materials.
- Ronbay Technology & CATL: Signed a major contract for the supply of 3.05 million tons of LFP cathode material to CATL from 2026-2031, with a total value exceeding CNY 120 billion.
- Supply Tightness in LFP:
- Major producers (Tianli Lithium, Wanrun New Energy, Hunan Yuneng) have announced maintenance shutdowns in Jan-Feb 2026, reducing supply by tens of thousands of tons.
- Combined with rising lithium carbonate prices and potential "rush exports" before the April 1 tax rebate reduction, LFP prices are showing strong upward momentum.
4.3 Price Trends & Market Dynamics
- Lithium Carbonate: Prices surged to ~CNY 160,000/ton (Battery Grade) due to optimistic expectations of Q1 "rush exports" before the export tax rebate drops from 9% to 6% (effective April 1, 2026) and eventual cancellation in 2027. Futures volatility remains high.
- LFP Cathode: Prices rose ~10% WoW. Cost support from lithium carbonate is strong. Small/mid-sized producers are cutting production or rejecting low-price orders, leading to structural supply tightening.
- Ternary Materials: Prices rose ~9-10% WoW driven by raw material costs (Li/Ni), but actual transaction volumes are low due to weak downstream demand in the traditional Q1 slack season.
- Anode Materials: Prices stable. Operating rates at 62-65%. Head firms maintain stable orders via deep bindings with top battery makers; smaller firms face intense competition.
Investment View:
We recommend focusing on the recovery in prosperity after the seasonal slack period, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and regulatory clarity.
* Top Picks: CATL, EVE Energy, Fulin Jinggong, Kedali, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy.
* Watch: Tianci Materials, DFD, Enjie Shares, Star Source Material, Hunan Yuneng, Putailai.
5. AIDC Power & Liquid Cooling: AI Demand Drives Structural Upgrades
5.1 Power Supply: Rubin Ultra Driving Value Upgrade
- Kstar (002518.SZ): Released performance preview. 2025 Net Profit estimated at CNY 600-660 mn. Q4 Net Profit estimated at CNY 154-214 mn (+317% to +479% YoY), demonstrating strong profitability.
- Industry Logic: NVIDIA’s Rubin Ultra platform will drive power consumption exponentially. By 2027, 800V will become standard, requiring highly customized power supplies with faster dynamic response and anti-interference capabilities. This shifts power supplies from standard commodities to high-value custom solutions.
- Opportunity: Chinese manufacturers, having completed a 2-year validation cycle, are poised to capture supply chain spillover and market share gains in 2026 as Rubin Ultra ramps up.
5.2 Liquid Cooling: TSMC Earnings Confirm High-Performance Chip Demand
- TSMC Q4 2025 Results: Revenue TWD 1.05 trillion (+20.45% YoY); Net Profit TWD 505.7 billion (+35% YoY). Strong demand for high-performance AI chips confirms the necessity of advanced cooling solutions.
- Meta’s Expansion: Meta established "Meta Compute" to manage AI data centers, planning dozens of GWs of capacity this decade.
- Investment Logic:
- NVIDIA Rubin Platform: Shifts server/switch assembly to L10, benefiting Taiwanese ODMs but also opening opportunities for direct component sourcing.
- Non-NVIDIA ASICs: Growing demand for自建 (self-built) supply chains by hyperscalers favors Chinese liquid cooling providers who can offer system-level solutions (not just components).
- Consolidation: M&A activity in late 2025 has strengthened players’ capabilities in product portfolio and customer relationships.
Recommendations:
* Component Suppliers entering Global Chains: Kechuang Xinyuan (Top Pick), Envicool, Yidong Electronics, Hongfuhan, Lens Technology, SiQuan New Material, Feilong Shares, Chuanhuan Technology.
* IDC Solution Providers: Shenling Environment (Top Pick), Chuanrun Shares, Tongfei Shares, Gaolan Shares.
* Equipment Manufacturers: Tsugami Machine Tool China, Genesis, Ningbo Jingda.
* New Tech Routes: Micro-channel, Two-phase cold plates, Immersion cooling.
6. Hydrogen & Fuel Cells: Policy Optimization & Commercial Breakthroughs
6.1 Inner Mongolia Policy: Enhancing Green Hydrogen Economics
Inner Mongolia issued the Implementation Scheme for the Development and Construction of Green Power Direct Connection Projects for Single Power Users.
* Key Clause: Allows green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol projects to configure renewable energy capacity up to 1.2 times the annual load.
* Requirement: Must provide off-take agreements for H2/NH3/MeOH as a precondition.
* Impact: The 1.2x ratio allows for excess generation during peak renewable output, improving electrolyzer utilization and allowing surplus power to be sold to the grid. The mandatory off-take agreement reduces the risk of "stranded assets." This significantly optimizes the economics of green hydrogen projects.
6.2 Fuel Cell Vehicles: Sales Milestone & Commercial Logic
- Sales Data: 2025 FCV insurance registrations exceeded 10,000 units for the first time. However, >60% of sales occurred in December, driven by year-end targets in demonstration city clusters (Guangdong, Henan, Sichuan).
- Analysis: The industry remains in a policy-driven early stage, similar to the "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" era of EVs. The challenge now is to transition from subsidy dependence to commercial viability in specific scenarios (heavy trucks, port logistics).
- Policy Support: Multiple provinces are introducing toll fee exemptions for hydrogen highways, enhancing TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) competitiveness.
6.3 Green Methanol: Supply-Demand Imbalance Creates Opportunity
- Demand: 300 methanol-fueled ships are scheduled for delivery in the next two years, driving demand for 6.8 million tons of green methanol. Long-term, global demand could exceed 40 million tons by 2030 (with 10% blending).
- Supply: Current global green methanol capacity is only in the hundreds of thousands of tons.
- Opportunity: A significant supply shortage window exists. Producers with early project completion and partnerships with shipowners will capture high premiums.
Recommendations:
* Green Methanol Producers: Goldwind, Jidian Shares, CIMC Enric, China Tianying, Furan Energy, Jiaze New Energy, Fuqing Environmental.
* Electrolyzers: Huadian Kegong, Huaguang Huaneng, Shuangliang Eco-Energy.
* Fuel Cell Components: SinoHytec, Guofu Hydrogen, Refire, Sinohytec (Guohong).
7. Industrial Control & Automation: Recovery & Humanoid Robot Catalysts
- Market Trend: December orders showed超预期 (better-than-expected) YoY growth for domestic head industrial control firms, driven by broader downstream recovery.
- 2026 Structural Opportunities:
- "AI+" Manufacturing: Increased demand for semiconductor and electronics manufacturing equipment.
- Humanoid Robots: Approaching mass production. Domestic firms are securing positions in motors, drivers, and encoders.
- Solid-State Batteries: Pilot lines and capacity expansion driving equipment demand.
- Recommendations:
- Top Picks: Inovance Technology, Xinje Electric, Broad-Ocean Motor, Leadshine Technology.
- Watch: Weichuang Electric, Hongfa Technology, Wolong Electric Drive.
Risks / Headwinds
- Policy Execution Risk: While the dual-carbon goals are clear, the pace and effectiveness of specific policy implementations (e.g., subsidies, grid approvals, hydrogen standards) may fall short of expectations, impacting industry growth rates.
- Intense Price Competition: Rapid capacity expansion and cross-industry capital entry may lead to oversupply in certain segments (e.g., lithium materials, PV modules), exacerbating price wars and compressing profit margins beyond current forecasts.
- Geopolitical & Trade Barriers: Escalating trade restrictions (e.g., US tariffs, EU investigations) could hinder the export growth of Chinese new energy companies, particularly in the PV and battery sectors.
- Technological Iteration Risks: Rapid changes in technology (e.g., BC vs. TOPCon in PV, Solid-State vs. Liquid in Batteries) may render existing capacities obsolete, leading to unexpected asset impairments.
- Raw Material Price Volatility: Fluctuations in lithium, nickel, silver, and polysilicon prices can disrupt cost structures and margin stability for mid-stream manufacturers.
Rating / Sector Outlook
Sector Rating: Overweight (Buy)
We maintain a positive outlook on the New Energy and Power Equipment sector for 2026. The convergence of technological innovation (Space PV, Solid-State Batteries, Liquid Cooling), policy support (15th FYP Grid Investment, Hydrogen Rules), and global supply chain restructuring (US/EU Autonomy, Offshore Wind Auctions) creates multiple high-certainty growth avenues.
Valuation Perspective:
Many sub-sectors, particularly PV main chain and Wind Power, are trading at historically low valuations following the 2024-2025 correction. With Q4 2025 confirming the "performance bottom" and 2026 promising volume/price recovery, the risk-reward ratio is favorable. Grid Equipment and AIDC-related sectors offer high growth visibility, justifying premium valuations.
Investment View & Portfolio Recommendations
We recommend a barbell strategy: combining high-growth thematic plays (Space PV, AIDC Cooling, Hydrogen) with resilient, cash-flow-positive leaders in Grid and Offshore Wind.
Top Picks by Sub-Sector
| Sub-Sector | Top Recommendations | Key Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Wind Power | YunDa Shares, Goldwind, Mingyang Smart Energy, Sany Heavy Energy, Dajin Heavy Industry, Orient Cable, Riyue Shares, Haili Wind Power | AR7 auction beat; Export growth for piles/cables; OEM profitability improvement. |
| Photovoltaics | Sungrow, Xinyi Solar, Junda Shares, Flat Glass (A/H), Polymer Materials, Canadian Solar, Tongwei, Trina Solar, JA Solar, TCL Zhonghuan, Gaoce Shares, Aotewei, Jiejia Weichuang, JinkoSolar, LONGi, Jinjing Glass, Linyang Energy, Maxwell, Xinyi Energy | Space PV catalyst; Q4 bottom confirmed; Equipment & Material leaders benefit from tech iteration. |
| Energy Storage | Sungrow, Canadian Solar, Shenghong Shares, Linyang Energy, Kstar | Global demand growth; US market penetration; AIDC power supply synergy. |
| Grid & Industrial Control | Sieyuan Electric, Sanxing Medical, Hexing Electrical, Jinpan Technology, Guoneng Rixin, Dongfang Electronics, NARI Technology, State Grid ICT, Anke Rui, Wangbian Electric, Inovance Technology, Nanwang Technology, Sifang Shares, Eaglerise, Hongfa Technology, Xuji Electric | SGCC 15th FYP investment surge; US grid replacement cycle; Transformer shortage; Humanoid robot positioning. |
| Hydrogen | Kewell, Furui Special Equipment, Huaguang Huaneng, Huadian Kegong, Shenghui Technology, Sinopec Machinery, Houpu Shares, SinoHytec, Guohong Hydrogen, Jingcheng Shares, Zhiyuan New Energy, Shudao Equipment | Inner Mongolia policy optimization; Green methanol shortage; FCV sales milestone. |
| Lithium Batteries | CATL, EVE Energy, Fulin Jinggong, Kedali, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy | Recycling regulations; Strategic binding with CATL; Supply-demand improvement post-slack season. |
Detailed Investment Thesis for Key Stocks
1. Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ) - Grid Equipment Leader
- Thesis: Primary beneficiary of both domestic grid investment growth and the North American transformer shortage.
- Catalysts: Q4 2025 earnings beat (+74% YoY profit); Strong order book for 2026; New business lines (Supercapacitors, UHV, Storage) ramping up.
- Valuation: Attractive PEG given 30%+ earnings growth visibility.
2. Junda Shares (002865.SZ) - Space PV & TOPCon Leader
- Thesis: Unique exposure to Space PV via partnership with SIOM (Xingyi Xineng) and CPI film JV. Strong position in TOPCon cell market.
- Catalysts: Space PV project milestones; Industry consolidation improving cell margins; Asset impairment cleanup in 2025 paving way for 2026 profitability.
3. Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ) - Offshore Wind Pile Exporter
- Thesis: Undervalued leader in offshore wind foundations with strong export capabilities to Europe and US.
- Catalysts: UK AR7 auction results driving 2026-2027 order visibility; European capacity constraints favoring Chinese suppliers.
4. CATL (300750.SZ) - Battery Kingpin
- Thesis: Dominant market share; Strategic investments in upstream (Fulin Jinggong) and downstream (recycling, storage) solidify ecosystem control.
- Catalysts: Stable margins despite raw material fluctuations; Growth in energy storage and overseas markets; Leadership in solid-state battery R&D.
5. Sungrow (300274.SZ) - Inverter & Storage Giant
- Thesis: Global leader in inverters and energy storage systems. Beneficiary of global renewable installation growth and grid modernization.
- Catalysts: Strong overseas revenue mix; High-margin storage business growth; Brand strength in utility-scale projects.
Appendix: Industry Data & Price Tracking
Photovoltaic Chain Prices (as of Jan 14, 2026)
| Product | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polysilicon | 0% | +10% | +10% | Above cash cost |
| 183mm Wafer | 0% | 0% | 0% | Covers full cost |
| 183mm Cell | +3% | +5% | +5% | Profit pressure easing |
| 183mm Module | +2% | +2% | +2% | Quotes rising, demand cautious |
| PV Glass | Stable | Stable | - | Inventory down to 38.9 days |
| EVA Film | Rising | Rising | - | Tight spot supply |
Lithium Battery Chain Prices (as of Jan 15, 2026)
| Product | Price Range (CNY/ton) | Weekly Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battery Li-Carbonate | 157,000 - 163,000 | +14.3% | Rush export expectation; Futures volatile |
| Industrial Li-Carbonate | 155,000 - 161,000 | +14.5% | Following battery grade trend |
| LFP (Power Type) | ~56,800 | +9.65% | Cost support strong; Supply tightening |
| LFP (Storage Type) | ~54,800 | +10.26% | Strong demand from storage sector |
| Ternary 5-Series | ~177,400 | +9.24% | Cost-driven rise; Low transaction volume |
| Cobalt Sulfate | 95,000 - 98,000 | +1.05% | Supply tight; Demand cautious |
Sector Prosperity Index
| Sector | Prosperity Trend | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| PV & Storage | 📈 Turning Up | Q4 bottom confirmed; Space PV catalyst |
| Wind Power | 📈 Steady Up | AR7 auction beat; Export growth |
| Grid Equipment | 📈 Turning Up | 15th FYP investment; US replacement cycle |
| NEV Vehicles | ➡️ Slowing Decline | Stabilizing after price wars |
| Lithium Batteries | 📈 Steady Up | Supply tightening; Policy clarity |
| Solid-State Battery | 🔥 High Prosperity | R&D and pilot line expansion |
| Hydrogen | 📈 Steady Up | Policy optimization; Sales milestone |
Disclaimer
This report is prepared by Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. ("Guojin Securities") and is intended for professional institutional investors only. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Guojin Securities makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. The views expressed are those of the analysts at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Investors should consider this report as only one factor in making their investment decisions and should consult with their own financial advisors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Guojin Securities and its affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned and may engage in transactions inconsistent with the recommendations herein.
Contact Information:
* Shanghai: 5F, Zizhu International Building, 1088 Fangdian Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai. Tel: 021-80234211
* Beijing: 8th Floor South, News Building, 26 Jianguomennei Avenue, Dongcheng District, Beijing. Tel: 010-85950438
* Shenzhen: Room 1806, 18th Floor, Huanggang Business Center, 2028 Jintian Road, Futian District, Shenzhen. Tel: 0755-86695353
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