Weekly Sector Review: New Energy & Power Equipment
Date: January 30, 2026
Analysts: Yao Yao (S1130512080001), Zhang Jiawen (S1130523090006)
Contacts: Fan Xiaopeng, Peng Zhiqiang, Lu Wenjie
Title: Space-Based PV "Refuels" the Rally; Energy Storage Poised for Catalyst Amid Policy Clarity; Overweight on Offshore Wind and Hydrogen
Executive Summary
This week, the New Energy and Power Equipment sector witnessed significant structural shifts driven by technological breakthroughs in space infrastructure and pivotal policy implementations domestically. The overarching investment thesis is anchored by three core developments:
- Space-Based Photovoltaics (PV) as the Primary Alpha Driver: SpaceX’s submission of a million-satellite constellation plan for orbital data centers, coupled with China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation’s (CASC) "155 Strategy," has reinvigorated the commercial aerospace and space-based PV narrative. We reiterate that space/Musk-related PV remains the strongest thematic主线 (main line) within the electrical equipment sector. The convergence of AI computing needs in orbit and the imperative for continuous solar energy utilization positions crystalline silicon and perovskite tandem cells as critical enablers for the next phase of civilizational energy consumption (Kardashev Type II).
- Energy Storage (ESS) Inflection Point: After a period of sufficient adjustment due to off-season demand and rising lithium carbonate prices, the sector has received a crucial catalyst with the release of the national framework for capacity electricity prices for generation-side storage. This policy injects certainty into project economics, promising to accelerate project commencements as provincial specifics are rolled out. We anticipate a resurgence in sector sentiment, driven by improved visibility on returns and the eventual stabilization of upstream lithium costs.
- Strategic Opportunities in Offshore Wind and Hydrogen: European offshore wind continues to show positive signals, particularly regarding local manufacturing approvals for Chinese OEMs (e.g., Mingyang Smart Energy). Simultaneously, the hydrogen sector has received unprecedented policy support, with the National Energy Administration (NEA) explicitly defining hydrogen as a core component of the future energy system in the "15th Five-Year Plan." We advise institutional investors to accumulate positions in these undervalued sub-sectors.
Additionally, we maintain a positive outlook on Grid Equipment, supported by strong overseas orders (ABB’s Q4 performance) and domestic acceleration in UHV and distribution network investments. In Lithium Batteries, attention is shifting towards solid-state battery innovations and the commercialization of sodium-ion batteries, while AIDC Liquid Cooling benefits from exceeding capital expenditure guidance from global CSP giants.
Key Takeaways
1. Photovoltaics & Storage: The Space Era and Policy Clarity
A. Space-Based PV: The Next Frontier for Solar Technology
Event: SpaceX has filed with the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for a constellation of up to 1 million satellites equipped with onboard computing capabilities (orbital data centers) to support advanced AI. Concurrently, CASC launched its "155 Strategy" to dominate the commercial aerospace supply chain over the next decade.
Investment Logic:
* Technological Imperative: The deployment of orbital data centers at 500-2000km altitudes leverages near-continuous solar exposure, minimizing reliance on batteries and ground-based environmental impacts. This represents a tangible step towards a Kardashev Type II civilization (stellar energy utilization).
* Material Shift: While Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) has traditionally dominated space PV, the cost constraints and scale requirements of a million-satellite constellation favor Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) and Perovskite Tandem technologies. c-Si offers a proven, low-cost, high-reliability supply chain, while perovskites offer the high efficiency and flexibility required for future iterations.
* Supply Chain Beneficiaries:
* Equipment First: During the capacity build-out phase, equipment manufacturers benefit first, regardless of whether satellites are self-produced or outsourced.
* Materials Second: As battery and module production scales, demand for space-grade auxiliary materials (flexible, radiation-resistant) will surge.
* Ultimate Route: High-efficiency, lightweight perovskite tandem cells are viewed as the terminal technology for large-scale solar wings in space.
Key Companies to Watch:
* Equipment: Shuangliang Eco-Energy (Silicon Material), Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical/Liancheng Numerical Control/Autowell (Ingot/Wafer), Gaoce Shares/Yujing Shares (Slicing), Maxwell/Jiecai Weichuang/Laplace (Cell), Autowell (Module).
* Auxiliary Materials (Space Grade): CPI Film (Junda, Foster, Woge, Ruihuatai, Lushan), UTG Glass (Lens Tech, Kaisheng Tech), Ribbon (Yubang New Material).
* Auxiliary Materials (Overseas Capacity): Foster (Vietnam/Thailand), Flat Glass (Vietnam/Indonesia), Xinyi Solar (Malaysia/Indonesia), Yongzhen/Xinbo (Frames), Zerun New Energy (Junction Boxes).
* Modules: Junda, Risen Energy, Shanghai Gangwan, Mingyang Smart Energy (Space focus); Canadian Solar, Jinko, LONGi, Trina, Hengdian DMEGC, Bovay, JA Solar (Overseas capacity).
B. Energy Storage: Capacity Price Mechanism Lands
Event: On January 30, the NDRC and NEA issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Electricity Price Mechanism for Generation-Side," establishing a framework for grid-side independent new energy storage capacity payments.
Analysis:
* Policy Mechanism: Capacity prices will be determined based on local coal-fired capacity price standards, adjusted for discharge duration and peak-shaving contributions.
* Case Study (Hubei): With a coal capacity price of 165 RMB/kW/year and a peak load duration of 10 hours, storage systems are compensated based on their available capacity during these 10 hours. This rewards long-duration, high-reliability storage and penalizes "zombie projects" built solely for compliance.
* Market Impact:
* Short-term: Injects certainty into investment returns, counteracting hesitation caused by rising lithium carbonate prices and seasonal lows. It accelerates the landing of观望 (wait-and-see) projects.
* Medium-term: Large-scale grid-side storage will increase charging demand during low-load periods, potentially raising extreme low prices during midday PV peaks. This improves PV curtailment issues and enhances market trading electricity prices, ultimately boosting project IRRs.
* Beneficiaries: System integrators with strong domestic utility-scale storage presence, such as Sungrow, Hyperstrong (Haibo Sichuang), and Sineng Electric.
C. PV Market Prices: Silver Squeeze and Margin Pressure
- Price Trends (Week ending Jan 28, 2026):
- Polysilicon: Stable (+0% WoW). Prices remain above cash costs for top-tier players.
- Wafers (183N): Down 4% WoW. Terminal demand is weak; inventory is accumulating.
- Cells (183N): Up 7% WoW. Driven by soaring silver prices, cell makers raised prices. However, integrated manufacturers have paused purchases due to cost pressures.
- Modules (183N): Up 3% WoW. Forced price hikes due to silver costs, but new order visibility remains low amidst weak demand.
- Silver Impact: The sharp rise in silver prices is squeezing margins in the cell and module segments. However, the recent correction in silver prices from highs is expected to alleviate cost pressure in the near term, driving a short-term repair in profit expectations.
2. Wind Power: Robust Demand and European Breakthroughs
A. Domestic Market: Strong Pricing and Volume Growth
- January Tendering: Central SOEs tendered 6.3 GW of onshore wind projects. While this represents a 35% YoY decline, it is attributed to a high base in Q1 2025.
- Pricing Power: The average winning bid price for onshore turbines remained robust at 1,700 RMB/kW, an 8% increase from the 2025 average of 1,571 RMB/kW. Prices for most models (excluding 10MW+) showed further increases compared to 2025 levels.
- Outlook: We maintain a positive view on the turbine OEM segment for 2026-2027. Given the 1.5-2 year delivery lag, high prices secured in early 2026 will translate into significant profit elasticity in 2027.
- Installation Volume: 2025 domestic wind grid connections reached ~119.3 GW (+50% YoY). Actual吊装 (hoisting/installation) volume likely exceeded 120 GW. The China Wind Energy Association (CWEA) predicts 2026-2027 installations to hold at 120 GW, but we believe this is conservative, excluding potential repowering demands. We forecast 2026 installations could exceed 130 GW.
B. European Offshore Wind: The "Mingyang" Catalyst
- Development: UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant indicated that a decision on Mingyang Smart Energy’s proposed factory in Scotland would be made "soon." This follows reports of delays during the Prime Minister’s visit to China.
- Strategic Necessity for Europe:
- Urgency: Europe aims for 9 GW (2030) and 16 GW (2031) of offshore wind. Projects connecting in 2030/31 must start construction in 2028/29. Current European large-turbine capacity is only ~4 GW, creating a massive supply gap.
- Inevitability: Chinese OEMs lead in large-scale turbine technology (20MW vs. Europe’s 15MW). To meet cost reduction targets, European developers are increasingly compelled to adopt Chinese turbines despite political headwinds.
- Investment Implication: Localized manufacturing is the key to bypassing trade protectionism. We recommend focusing on companies with advanced overseas layout, specifically Mingyang Smart Energy, and monitoring Goldwind and Dongfang Electric for European procurement inclusion. Supply chain beneficiaries include Dajin Heavy Industry, Orient Cable, and Haili Wind Power.
3. Lithium Batteries: Solid-State Momentum and Sodium Commercialization
A. Solid-State Battery Forum
- Event: The "2026 China All-Solid-State Battery Industry-Academia-Research Collaborative Innovation Platform Annual Conference" will be held on Feb 7-8.
- Focus: Key materials, cell innovation, process equipment, AI empowerment, and IP. This forum serves as a barometer for the industrialization progress of solid-state batteries. Investors should monitor announcements regarding pilot lines and material breakthroughs.
B. CATL’s Sodium-Ion Breakthrough
- Announcement: CATL CTO Gao Huan stated the goal is "mass promotion of sodium batteries." The company launched the "Tianxing II Light Commercial" solution, featuring the first mass-produced sodium battery for light commercial vehicles (LCVs) with low-temperature optimization.
- Performance: At -20°C, energy retention >92%; at -30°C, supports plug-and-play charging.
- Commercialization: Mass production expected in Q2 2026 for the Aion UT Super model. Expansion into passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and storage is planned for 2026.
- Market Reaction: The sodium battery index hit a new high since May 2021, reflecting strong investor confidence in this diversification strategy.
C. Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate (LMFP) Surge
- Data: Global LMFP production reached 28,500 tons in 2025, a 206.5% YoY increase.
- Forecast: Expected to reach 70,000 tons in 2026 and exceed 500,000 tons by 2030.
- Drivers: Rising cobalt prices (making三元 less attractive), trade friction-induced stockpiling, and technical improvements (doping/carbon coating) addressing manganese dissolution and conductivity issues.
- Leaders: Gotion High-Tech (Qichen Gen 2 cell, 240Wh/kg, 5C fast charge), Phylion (70% penetration in some e-bike brands), and material suppliers like Jiachuang Nano, Ronbay, and Dynanonic.
D. Supply Chain Contracts
- Haike Xinyuan: Signed a 3-year agreement with BYD to supply at least 100,000 tons/year of electrolyte solvents (DMC, EC, EMC, DEC) for BYD’s Hubei project. Total volume: ≥300,000 tons. This secures long-term revenue visibility for Haike.
4. AIDC Power & Liquid Cooling: CSP CapEx Beats Expectations
A. Financial Performance of Global CSP Giants
- Meta: Q4 2025 Revenue $59.9B (+24% YoY); Net Income $22.8B (+9% YoY). CapEx $22.14B. 2026 CapEx guidance: $115-135B (beating expectations).
- Microsoft: Q4 2025 Revenue $81.3B (+17% YoY); Net Income $38.5B (+60% YoY). CapEx $37.5B.
- Implication: Stronger-than-expected CapEx guides confirm the sustained intensity of AI infrastructure investment.
B. Liquid Cooling Investment Thesis
- Catalysts:
- Meta’s strong CapEx reinforces AI investment confidence.
- AWS ASIC liquid cooling demand is accelerating, opening new opportunities for Chinese suppliers following Meta and Google.
- Domestic CSPs are entering the mass adoption phase of liquid cooling.
- Recommendations:
- Component Suppliers (Global Share Gain): Kechuang Xin Yuan (Key Rec), Envicool, Yidong Electronics, Hongfuhan, Lens Tech, Siquan New Material, Feilong Shares, Chuanhuan Tech.
- IDC Solutions: Shenling Environment (Key Rec), Chuanrun Shares, Tongfei Shares, Gaolan Shares.
- Equipment: Jinshang Machine Tool China, Chuangshiji, Ningbo Jingda.
- Tech Routes: Micro-channel, two-phase cold plates, immersion cooling.
5. Hydrogen & Fuel Cells: Policy Tailwinds and Green Methanol Shortage
A. Policy Support: "15th Five-Year Plan" Focus
- NEA Press Conference: Hydrogen was mentioned 33 times, signaling its elevation to a "future industry" and a "new economic growth point."
- Strategy: Emphasis on "Green Power Direct Connection" to support green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol production, integrating high-energy-consuming industries (steel, chemicals, computing) with renewable energy.
- Data: 2025 key hydrogen project investments doubled YoY; cumulative renewable hydrogen capacity exceeded 250,000 tons/year.
B. Bloom Energy (BE) and SOFC Momentum
- Capacity Expansion: MTAR (BE’s Hotbox supplier) announced capacity expansion to 12,000 units in 2026 and 20,000 units in 2027 (vs. 8,000 in 2025).
- Major Orders:
- Texas Data Center: 1.5 GW project, starting Aug 2026. Phase 1: 104 MW SOFC, scaling to 300 MW then 800+ MW.
- AEP Contract: $2.65 billion contract for 900 MW SOFC. Exercise of option confirms commercial viability and bankability.
- ITC Catalyst: The US Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for SOFC begins in 2026, expected to trigger a wave of orders for data centers and grid enhancement.
C. Green Methanol Supply/Demand Imbalance
- Shortage: Global green methanol demand from 300 new methanol-fueled ships will reach 6.8 million tons in the next two years. Long-term (2030) demand >40 million tons (with 10% blending). Current supply is only hundreds of thousands of tons.
- Opportunity: Producers with early projects and shipping partnerships will enjoy high premiums.
- Beneficiaries: Goldwind, Jidian Shares, CIMC Enric, China Tianying, Foshan Gas, Jiaze New Energy, Fuqing Environmental.
D. Electrolyzers and Fuel Cell Vehicles
- Electrolyzers: Acceleration of green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol projects in H2 2025 will drive equipment demand. Recommended: Huadian Kegong, Huaguang Energy.
- FCVs: Toll fee exemptions on hydrogen highways in Hunan and other provinces, plus the end of the demonstration city cluster policy period, will boost FCV sales. Recommended: SinoHytec, Guofu Hydrogen, Refire, SinoHytec.
6. Grid Equipment: Export Strength and Domestic Upgrade Cycle
A. ABB Q4 2025 Results
- Performance: Global Electrification orders +36% YoY in Q4. Americas +55%. Data center orders significantly contributed, with several deals >$100M each.
- View: Validates the high景气 (prosperity) of power equipment exports and data center downstream demand.
B. Domestic Grid Investment
- Policy: NEA aims to accelerate preliminary work for main grids, distribution networks, and smart microgrids.
- Timeline:
- 2026: Acceleration of UHV (Ultra-High Voltage) approvals and construction (closing out 14th FYP projects). Main grid investment remains high.
- 2027: Increased focus on distribution network upgrades.
- Investment Themes:
- Power Transformers (Global Shortage): North America faces a 30% supply gap in 2025, with lead times >100 weeks. Export leaders with channel advantages will realize high-premium orders. Sieyuan Electric, Huaming Equipment, Shenma Power, Jinbei Electric.
- Solid State Transformers (SST): Emerging tech for high-density AIDC loads (600kW-1MW/rack). Enables millisecond-level response. Commercialization expected in 2027. Jinpan Tech, Eaglerise, Sifang Shares, XD Group, TBEA.
- Domestic Valuation Repair: "15th FYP" kick-off. UHV approvals to accelerate. Smart meter replacements (new standards in Q1 2026) to drive volume and price increases. Pinggao Electric, Xuji Electric, XD Group, NARI Tech (UHV); Sanxing Medical, Hexing Electrical (Meters).
7. Industrial Control: Humanoid Robots and AI Manufacturing
- Trend: December orders showed unexpected growth for domestic leaders, driven by broader downstream recovery.
- 2026 Structural Opportunities:
- "AI+" Manufacturing: Semiconductor and electronics equipment demand.
- Humanoid Robots: Approaching mass production. Domestic control firms are securing positions in motors, drivers, and encoders.
- Solid-State Battery Pilot Lines: Driving equipment CAPEX.
- Recommendations: Inovance Technology, Xinje Electric, Broad-Ocean Motor, Leadshine Technology. Watch: Weichuang Electric, Hongfa Technology, Wolong Electric.
Risks / Headwinds
While the outlook is broadly positive, institutional investors must consider the following risks:
- Policy Execution Risk: The renewable energy transition remains heavily dependent on policy guidance. If the implementation of capacity电价 (capacity price) mechanisms, hydrogen subsidies, or grid investment plans falls short of expectations, sector growth could decelerate.
- Intense Price Competition: Rapid capacity expansion across the PV, lithium, and wind supply chains, coupled with cross-industry capital entry, may lead to oversupply. This could trigger aggressive price wars, eroding margins and profitability, particularly in the PV module and lithium material segments.
- Geopolitical and Trade Barriers: European and US trade protectionism (e.g., local content requirements, tariffs) poses a risk to Chinese exporters. While local manufacturing mitigates this, regulatory delays (as seen with Mingyang in the UK) remain a variable.
- Raw Material Volatility: Fluctuations in lithium carbonate, silver, and copper prices can impact downstream margins. While lithium prices are stabilizing, sudden spikes or drops can disrupt inventory valuation and pricing strategies.
- Technology Iteration Risk: Rapid advancements in solid-state batteries, perovskite PV, or alternative wind turbine designs could render existing capacities obsolete, leading to asset impairment for laggards.
Rating / Sector Outlook
| Sub-Sector | Outlook | Rating | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space PV / Commercial Aerospace | Very Positive | Overweight | SpaceX constellation, CASC 155 Strategy, AI orbital computing. |
| Energy Storage (ESS) | Positive | Overweight | Capacity price policy落地 (landing), improving project IRRs, lithium cost stabilization. |
| Wind Power (Onshore/Offshore) | Positive | Overweight | Strong tender prices, 2026-27 profit elasticity, European offshore localization. |
| Hydrogen & Fuel Cells | Positive | Overweight | "15th FYP" policy support, green methanol shortage, SOFC commercial breakthroughs. |
| Grid Equipment | Positive | Overweight | Global transformer shortage, domestic UHV acceleration, AIDC power demand. |
| Lithium Batteries | Neutral/Positive | Neutral | Solid-state innovation, sodium-ion commercialization, but overall demand still in recovery. |
| Photovoltaics (Terrestrial) | Neutral | Neutral | Silver price pressure, weak terminal demand, but supply side optimization ongoing. |
| AIDC Liquid Cooling | Very Positive | Overweight | CSP CapEx beats, AI infrastructure build-out, tech share gain. |
Overall Sector Rating: Overweight
We believe the New Energy and Power Equipment sector is transitioning from a phase of pure capacity expansion to one driven by technological innovation (Space PV, Solid-State, Hydrogen) and policy-supported profitability (Storage Capacity Prices, Wind Pricing). The "Space PV" theme offers high-beta alpha, while Wind and Storage provide fundamental beta with improving earnings visibility.
Investment View
Core Investment Logic
-
The "Space Energy" Paradigm Shift:
The convergence of SpaceX’s orbital data center ambitions and China’s strategic aerospace push creates a new, high-growth vertical for the PV industry. Unlike terrestrial PV, which is constrained by land and intermittency, space PV offers continuous baseload power for AI computing. This is not merely a niche application but a strategic expansion of the total addressable market (TAM) for solar technology.- Action: Prioritize companies with space-grade material capabilities (radiation resistance, flexibility) and equipment manufacturers who will benefit from the initial capex cycle. Crystalline silicon remains the immediate beneficiary due to cost/scale, with perovskites as the long-term winner.
-
Energy Storage: From Cost Center to Profit Center:
The introduction of the capacity electricity price mechanism fundamentally changes the business model of grid-side storage. It moves storage from a mandatory compliance cost to a revenue-generating asset class with predictable cash flows. This de-risks the sector and justifies higher valuations for integrators with strong utility relationships.- Action: Accumulate shares in leading system integrators (Sungrow, Hyperstrong) as provincial policies roll out in H1 2026.
-
Wind Power: The European Export Breakout:
The European offshore wind market is at a critical juncture where supply shortages necessitate the adoption of Chinese technology. The approval of local factories (e.g., Mingyang in Scotland) is the key to unlocking this market. The combination of high domestic tender prices and emerging European orders creates a dual-engine growth story for top-tier OEMs.- Action: Overweight Mingyang Smart Energy for its first-mover advantage in Europe. Monitor Goldwind and Dongfang Electric for follow-on orders. Supply chain plays like Dajin Heavy Industry (towers/foundations) offer leveraged exposure to offshore volume growth.
-
Hydrogen: The Policy-Driven Supercycle:
With the "15th Five-Year Plan" explicitly targeting hydrogen, and the global green methanol market facing a severe supply deficit, the hydrogen sector is moving from pilot to commercial scale. The Bloom Energy orders validate the SOFC pathway for data centers, while green methanol offers immediate margin opportunities.- Action: Focus on green methanol producers with secured off-take agreements and electrolyzer manufacturers with SOE backing. For fuel cells, look to companies benefiting from highway toll exemptions and city cluster subsidies.
-
Grid & AIDC: The Infrastructure Backbone:
The AI boom is physically constrained by power availability. Transformers are the bottleneck, and liquid cooling is the solution. The global shortage of transformers provides a multi-year tailwind for Chinese exporters with certified products and overseas channels. Domestically, the grid upgrade cycle supports UHV and smart metering stocks.- Action: Buy Sieyuan Electric and Huaming Equipment for export exposure. For liquid cooling, Kechuang Xin Yuan and Shenling Environment are preferred picks due to their integration into global CSP supply chains.
Selected Portfolio Recommendations
Based on the above analysis, we recommend the following portfolio allocation for institutional investors:
Wind Power (High Conviction)
- Top Picks: Mingyang Smart Energy (European breakthrough, offshore leader), Goldwind Technology (Onshore stability, overseas potential), Yunda Shares (Cost leadership), Sany Heavy Energy (Profit elasticity).
- Supply Chain: Dajin Heavy Industry (Offshore foundations/export), Orient Cable (Subsea cables), Haili Wind Power (Foundations), Riyue Heavy Industry (Castings).
Photovoltaics & Space PV (Thematic Alpha)
- Space Theme: Junda Shares (Space modules/materials), Autowell (Equipment), Gaoce Shares (Slicing equipment), Foster (Encapsulant/Overseas capacity).
- General PV: Sungrow (Inverter/Storage synergy), Flat Glass (Glass leader), Trina Solar, JA Solar, LONGi Green Energy (Valuation repair), Maxwell (HJT equipment).
Energy Storage (Policy Catalyst)
- Top Picks: Sungrow (Global leader), Hyperstrong (Haibo Sichuang) (Domestic utility focus), Sineng Electric (PCS leader), Kstar (Residential/Commercial).
Hydrogen & Fuel Cells (Policy Tailwind)
- Top Picks: Kewell (Test equipment), Huadian Kegong (Electrolyzers/SOE backing), Huaguang Energy (Electrolyzers).
- Green Methanol: Goldwind, Jidian Shares, CIMC Enric.
- Fuel Cells: SinoHytec, Guofu Hydrogen.
Grid & Power Equipment (Export & Domestic Upgrade)
- Export/Transformer: Sieyuan Electric, Huaming Equipment, Shenma Power.
- Domestic/UHV: Pinggao Electric, Xuji Electric, NARI Tech.
- Meters: Sanxing Medical, Hexing Electrical.
- Liquid Cooling: Kechuang Xin Yuan, Shenling Environment, Envicool.
Lithium Batteries (Innovation Focus)
- Top Picks: CATL (Sodium-ion/Solid-state leader), EVE Energy (Diversified tech), Kedali (Structure件), Fulin Precision (LMFP precursor).
- Solid-State Watch: Monitor participants in the upcoming Feb 7-8 forum for trading opportunities.
Conclusion
The New Energy sector is entering a phase of differentiated growth. The broad-based beta of the past is giving way to alpha generated by technological disruption (Space PV, Solid-State Batteries) and policy-driven monetization (Storage Capacity Prices, Hydrogen Subsidies). We advise investors to rotate out of purely commoditized segments facing oversupply and into companies with clear competitive moats in emerging high-growth niches. The "Space PV" narrative, in particular, offers a compelling long-term structural story that aligns with global AI and energy trends, while Wind and Storage offer near-term earnings visibility.
Appendix: Detailed Data & Price Monitoring
1. Photovoltaic Chain Price Trends (Week Ending Jan 28, 2026)
| Product | Specification | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Price Trend Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polysilicon | Mono Rejected | 0.0% | +10.0% | +10.0% | Prices above cash cost; stable. |
| Wafer | 183N Mono | -4.0% | -4.0% | -4.0% | Weak demand; inventory building. |
| Cell | 183N Mono | +7.0% | +18.0% | +18.0% | Silver price surge drives hikes; integrated buyers pausing. |
| Module | 183N Mono | +3.0% | +6.0% | +6.0% | Forced hikes due to silver; low order visibility. |
| Glass | 2.0mm Coated | Stable | Stable | Stable | Steady demand; inventory down to 34.6 days. |
| EVA Film | Standard | Stable | Stable | Stable | Tight spot supply; prices 8875-9000 RMB/ton. |
Source: PVInfoLink, Silicon Industry Branch, Guojin Securities Research
2. Lithium Battery Material Prices (Week Ending Jan 29, 2026)
| Material | Specification | Price Range (RMB) | Weekly Change | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium Carbonate | Battery Grade (99.5%) | 161,000 - 167,000 | -0.61% | Futures volatile; spot weak; destocking continues. |
| Lithium Carbonate | Industrial Grade (99.0%) | 158,000 - 164,000 | -0.62% | Follows battery grade trend. |
| Cobalt Sulfate | Standard | 95,600 - 98,400 | 0.0% | Firm prices; low trading volume pre-CNY. |
| NCM 523 | Single Crystal/Power | ~184,400/ton | +0.55% | Raw material fluctuation; cautious downstream. |
| NCM 811 | Poly/Power | ~205,800/ton | +0.99% | Slight increase due to raw costs. |
| LFP | Power Type | ~57,600/ton | -0.52% | Cost support from lithium; weak demand. |
| LFP | Energy Storage | ~55,700/ton | -0.36% | Stable demand provides floor. |
| Anode | Artificial Graphite | 33,123 (Avg) | 0.0% | Structural oversupply; weak bargaining power. |
| Graphitization | Crucible Furnace | 8,400 - 9,600/ton | Stable | Tight high-quality capacity; slight price hike. |
| LiPF6 | Standard | ~138,000/ton | -7.38% | Weak demand; inventory rising; prices falling. |
| Separator | 5um Wet | 1.405/sqm | 0.0% | Stable; high operating rates for leaders. |
Source: Baiinfo, ICC Xinluo, Guojin Securities Research
3. Key Industry Events Calendar (Upcoming)
- Feb 7-8, 2026: 2026 China All-Solid-State Battery Industry-Academia-Research Collaborative Innovation Platform Annual Conference. Critical for solid-state battery sentiment.
- Q1 2026: Announcement of provincial-specific capacity electricity price standards for energy storage. Catalyst for ESS sector.
- Q1 2026: UK Government decision on Mingyang Smart Energy’s Scotland factory. Catalyst for Wind Export chain.
- Q2 2026: Mass production of CATL’s Sodium-ion battery for Aion UT Super. Catalyst for Sodium-ion supply chain.
Disclaimer
This report is prepared by Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. ("Guojin Securities") for institutional investors only. It is based on information believed to be reliable, but Guojin Securities makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should consider this report as only one factor in making their investment decisions and should consult with their own financial advisors.
Guojin Securities Research Institute
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