Space-Based Photovoltaics (SBPV) Market Deep Dive: Communication Foundations, Compute Explosion, and the Emergence of a 100GW+ High-Margin Sector

Date: February 2026
Sector: New Energy & Power Equipment / Commercial Aerospace
Analyst: Yao Yao (S1130512080001)
Source: Guojin Securities Research Institute

Executive Summary

We reiterate our strong overweight stance on Space-Based Photovoltaics (SBPV) as one of the most compelling investment themes in the new energy sector through 2026. Following our previous technical analysis, this report focuses on the market dynamics, specifically anchoring on two primary demand drivers: communication satellites (short-term) and space-based computing/AI data centers (medium-to-long term).

Our core thesis rests on three pillars:
1. Short-Term Certainty: Driven by the global race for broadband coverage and direct-to-device connectivity, communication satellite launches are accelerating. We forecast global SBPV installations to reach ~413 MW in 2026, growing to 4.2 GW by 2028, fueled by increasing single-satellite power requirements (moving from tens of kW to 100kW+).
2. Medium-Term Economic Viability of "Compute in Space": We demonstrate that space-based computing is not just technically feasible but economically competitive. When the sum of power platform costs, launch costs, and manufacturing premiums for space racks is less than or equal to ground-based electricity expenses, space compute achieves parity. With ground grid connection queues in North America extending to 5–9 years, space data centers offer a critical alternative for AI infrastructure. If current US and Chinese constellation plans are fully executed, this segment alone could drive >100 GW of SBPV demand.
3. Long-Term Expansion: The frontier extends to lunar and Martian bases. As humanity’s footprint expands beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), SBPV will transition from powering satellites to sustaining extraterrestrial industrial and residential infrastructure, opening a virtually unlimited long-term market.

We recommend focusing on three key value chains: (1) Satellite OEMs and integrators, (2) SBPV equipment and cell suppliers (particularly HJT and Perovskite technologies), and (3) Specialized encapsulation materials for the space environment.

Key Takeaways

1. Short-Term Driver: Communication Satellites & The Power Density Shift

The immediate growth engine for SBPV is the proliferation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) communication constellations. The industry is witnessing a structural shift in satellite design:
* Power Scaling: Single-satellite power is escalating from the historical range of several kilowatts to 100kW-class systems. For instance, SpaceX’s Starlink V2 full-size satellites are theorized to exceed 50kW per unit, while domestic Chinese initiatives are actively developing 50-100kW ultra-high-power power systems.
* Launch Volume Surge: Global small satellite launches exceeded 4,000 units in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of over 50%. SpaceX accounted for 77% of these launches, with China contributing 7%.
* Market Sizing: Assuming a conservative annual launch growth rate of 50% and proportional increases in solar array area/power, we project global SBPV installed capacity to reach:
* 2026E: 413 MW
* 2027E: 1,426 MW
* 2028E: 4,277 MW

2. Medium-Term Catalyst: The Economic Case for Space-Based AI Data Centers

The convergence of AI compute demand and terrestrial infrastructure bottlenecks has created a unique opportunity for space-based data centers.

The "Space Compute Parity" Model

We conducted a detailed Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) comparison between a 1GW ground-based data center and a 1GW space-based data center over a 7-year lifecycle. Our model excludes the cost of computing chips (GPUs/TPUs) to isolate infrastructure and energy economics.

Key Finding: Space-based compute becomes cost-competitive when:
$$ \text{Power Platform Cost} + \text{Launch Cost} + \text{Space Rack Manufacturing Premium} \leq \text{Ground Electricity Expenses} $$

Detailed Cost Breakdown (1GW Scale, 7-Year Lifecycle):

• Implication: Even at a PV module price of $1.3/W—which is 10x higher than current ground-based TOPCon modules (~$0.10/W or $0.739 RMB/W)—space compute is economically viable. Given the high barriers to entry (radiation hardening, vacuum compatibility, rigorous testing), SBPV products command significantly higher margins than terrestrial counterparts.

Strategic Advantages Over Ground Infrastructure

1. Deployment Speed: Ground data centers in key markets like Northern Virginia face grid connection wait times of 7 years, with some California projects exceeding 9 years. Space deployments bypass terrestrial permitting and grid congestion.
2. Thermal Management: Space offers a natural heat sink via radiation into deep space (-270°C background), eliminating the need for water-intensive cooling systems (a 40MW ground cluster consumes ~1.7 million tons of water over 10 years).
3. Energy Density & Continuity: In sun-synchronous or dawn-dusk orbits, satellites can achieve near-continuous illumination, with solar irradiance of 1,366 W/m² (approx. 5x the effective yield of ground solar due to lack of atmospheric attenuation and night cycles).
4. Scalability: Orbital data centers can scale linearly without land constraints, enabling GW-scale clusters that are physically impossible in dense urban grids.

3. Competitive Landscape: The US-China Space Compute Race

Both nations have announced aggressive plans for compute constellations, signaling a strategic shift from "Sensing in Space, Computing on Ground" to "Computing in Space."

United States:
* SpaceX: Filed with the FCC for a constellation of up to 1 million satellites with onboard computing capabilities.
* Starcloud (formerly Lumen Orbit): Launched Starcloud-1 (Nov 2025) featuring NVIDIA H100 GPUs. Plans for an 88,000-satellite constellation to build a GW-class orbital data center.
* Google (Project Suncatcher): Testing distributed TPU tasks with optical inter-satellite links.
* Axiom Space: Launching in-orbit data centers in Jan 2026, scaling from kW to MW levels.

China:
* "SanTi" (Three-Body) Compute Constellation: Launched 12 satellites in May 2025, delivering 5 POPS of onboard compute. Target: 1,000 satellites and 1,000 POPS.
* "XingSuan" (Star Compute): Operated by ADASpace (Guoxing Yuhang). Successfully deployed Alibaba’s Qwen3 LLM in orbit for end-to-end inference tasks. Target: 2,800 satellites.
* Other Players: Zhongke Tiansuan, Beijing Starry Sky Institute, and state-backed entities are rapidly advancing from experimental phases to engineering deployment.

Market Size Implication:
Based on declared plans (SpaceX 1M units @ 100kW/unit; China ~8,700 units @ 20kW/unit), if 100% of these planned satellites are launched, the corresponding SBPV demand exceeds 132 GW. Even at a 50% execution rate, the demand remains substantial at ~66 GW.

4. Long-Term Horizon: Lunar and Martian Industrialization

Elon Musk’s recent statements (Feb 2026) highlight a strategic pivot: "Moon first, Mars second." SpaceX aims to build a self-sustaining city on the Moon within 10 years, leveraging the 10-day launch window advantage over Mars’ 26-month alignment cycle.

• Lunar South Pole: Selected for its near-continuous sunlight (Peaks of Eternal Light) and access to water ice in shadowed craters.
• Energy Requirements: Lunar bases require robust, radiation-hardened PV arrays to support life support, oxygen production, and mining operations. Nuclear options are high-cost and complex; PV is the preferred baseline for micro-grids.
• China’s "Tiangong Kaiwu" Project: Scheduled for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on space mining, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), and establishing a basic International Lunar Research Station by 2035.

This phase transitions SBPV from a component supplier role to a critical infrastructure provider for extraterrestrial civilization, creating a new, high-value market segment distinct from LEO satellites.

Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook is robust, investors must consider the following risks:

1. Commercial Aerospace Development Delays:

   • The SBPV market is derivative of satellite launch volumes. Any slowdown in constellation financing, regulatory hurdles (e.g., spectrum allocation, space debris mitigation policies), or technical setbacks in reusable launch vehicles could dampen short-term demand.
   • Mitigation: Diversification across multiple national programs (US, China, EU) reduces single-point failure risk.

2. Battery and PV Technology Iteration Risks:

   • Space environments pose extreme challenges: high-energy particle radiation, atomic oxygen erosion, and thermal cycling (-150°C to +120°C).
   • If new technologies (e.g., Perovskite, HJT) fail to meet reliability standards or suffer faster-than-expected degradation in orbit, adoption may stall.
   • Mitigation: Companies with proven in-orbit validation data (e.g., Shanghai Gangwan, CETC Blue Sky) hold a competitive moat.

3. Launch Cost Volatility:

   • Our economic model assumes launch costs drop to $10/kg (SpaceX Starlink target). If launch costs remain elevated (> $50/kg), the TCO advantage of space compute diminishes, though it may still remain viable for high-latency-sensitive applications.

4. Geopolitical and Regulatory Fragmentation:

   • Increasing tensions could lead to decoupled supply chains or restrictions on cross-border technology transfer (e.g., advanced chips for space compute), potentially fragmenting the global market into separate US-led and China-led ecosystems.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Rating: OVERWEIGHT (Buy)

We view the SBPV sector as entering a high-growth, high-margin expansion phase. The transition from niche military/scientific applications to mass-market commercial communications and AI infrastructure represents a fundamental re-rating of the industry’s total addressable market (TAM).

Valuation Perspective:
* Traditional ground PV manufacturers operate in a commoditized, low-margin environment (net margins often <5-10%).
* SBPV suppliers benefit from high technical barriers, customization requirements, and limited competition, suggesting sustainable net margins significantly above industry averages (potentially 20-30%+ for specialized components).
* Current valuations for pure-play space stocks do not yet fully reflect the 100GW+ medium-term demand potential from the compute constellation boom.

Investment View

We identify three primary investment vectors within the SBPV value chain, recommending specific companies that are well-positioned to capture value in each segment.

Vector 1: Satellite OEMs & System Integrators

Companies that design and build the entire satellite platform, capturing the highest value add and integrating PV systems directly.

1. Junda Shares (002865.SZ) – The Integrated Space Ecosystem Player

• Investment Logic: Junda has strategically pivoted from traditional PV cells to become a rare satellite OEM player. Through its subsidiary Xuntian Qianhe, it possesses end-to-end satellite manufacturing capabilities (XT-series platforms, 10kg-1000kg class).
• Key Catalysts:
  • Vertical Integration: Acquisition of a 60% stake in Shanghai Fuyao Xinghe (completed Feb 2026) solidifies its control over satellite assembly.
  • Technology Synergy: Partnership with Shangyi Optoelectronics (CAS Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics spin-off) to develop CPI films and Perovskite-Silicon tandem cells for space. This creates a closed loop: Junda builds the satellite, tests its own PV tech in orbit, and iterates rapidly.
  • Order Book: Xuntian Qianhe has launched 7 commercial satellites and has 20+ in development, with an annual capacity of 50 units.
• Risk: Execution risk in scaling satellite production; integration challenges between legacy PV business and new aerospace operations.

2. CETC Blue Sky (688061.SH) – The Dominant Power System Supplier

• Investment Logic: A core supplier of astronautical power systems in China, with a market share exceeding 50%. Its heritage dates back to the "Dongfanghong-1" satellite (1970).
• Key Strengths:
  • Product Breadth: Offers GaAs solar arrays, Li-ion battery packs, and power control units.
  • Track Record: Powered 700+ satellites/spacecraft, including Shenzhou, Tiangong, and Beidou.
  • Commercial Exposure: Key supplier for major commercial constellations like Qianfan (G60) and Guowang (GW).
  • Tech Edge: 34.4% efficiency space solar cells have passed in-orbit validation.
• Risk: Dependence on domestic Chinese launch cadence; potential margin pressure from commercial customers demanding lower costs.

3. Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SH) – Diversified Space Energy Layout

• Investment Logic: Through its subsidiary Dehua Chip, Mingyang has built a full产业链 (industry chain) for space energy, from compound semiconductor epitaxial wafers to complete power systems.
• Key Strengths:
  • GaAs Heritage: Over 10 years of R&D in III-V compound semiconductors (GaAs), providing a strong foundation for high-efficiency space cells.
  • Next-Gen Tech: Aggressively developing Perovskite-HJT tandem cells (efficiency breakthrough >34%).
  • Validation Channel: Leveraging existing aerospace client relationships to fast-track in-orbit verification of new PV technologies.
• Risk: Capital intensity of new material lines; competition from established aerospace institutes.

4. Shanghai Gangwan (605598.SH) – Niche Power Subsystem Specialist

• Investment Logic: Subsidiary Shanghai Fuxi Xinkong specializes in lightweight, low-cost space energy systems.
• Key Catalysts:
  • Proven Reliability: Power systems for 19 successfully launched satellites; 50+ sets operating in orbit.
  • Perovskite Leadership: Their Perovskite solar cells have demonstrated stable voltage output (2.8-3.0V) over 9 months in orbit (Tianyan-24 satellite), proving resilience against radiation and thermal cycling.
  • Customer Base: Supplies to Chang Guang Satellite (Jilin-1), Geespace (Geely), and others. Orders grew rapidly in H1 2025.
• Risk: Smaller scale compared to state-owned enterprises; reliance on continued commercial launch success.

Vector 2: SBPV Equipment & Cell Suppliers

Companies providing the manufacturing tools and high-efficiency cell technologies required for space-grade PV.

5. Maxwell Technologies (Maiwei Shares) (300751.SZ) – HJT Equipment Leader

• Investment Logic: While primarily a ground-based HJT equipment leader, Maxwell’s technology is critical for producing the high-efficiency, low-degradation cells needed for space.
• Key Catalysts:
  • HJT 4.0 Platform: Launched in 2025, offering 1.2GW/single line capacity with 34% less footprint and 20% lower energy consumption. This efficiency gain is crucial for reducing the cost premium of space cells.
  • Perovskite/HJT Tandem: Developed a 200MW/year pilot line for large-area (G12 half-cut) Perovskite/HJT tandem cells. Secured first commercial order in Dec 2025.
  • Relevance to Space: HJT’s bifaciality and low temperature coefficient make it inherently suitable for space environments. Maxwell’s equipment enables the mass production of these advanced cells.
• Risk: Slow adoption of HJT/Tandem tech in the broader market; competition from TOPCon equipment makers.

6. Risen Energy (300118.SZ) – HJT Module Innovator for Space

• Investment Logic: A global leader in HJT module technology, Risen is uniquely positioned with its P-type Ultra-Thin HJT series, which offers specific advantages for space applications.
• Key Strengths:
  • Product Fit: P-type ultra-thin cells (<70μm) offer superior specific power (W/kg), flexibility (suitable for roll-out solar wings), and radiation resistance compared to standard N-type cells.
  • Commercial Progress: Small-batch deliveries to commercial aerospace clients already realized.
  • Strategic Partnership: Joint venture with Shanghai Gangwan (Jan 2026) to co-develop "Perovskite + P-type HJT" tandem technologies for space energy.
  • Performance: Vortex Pro modules achieve 23.8% efficiency (740W), ranking top 3 globally.
• Risk: HJT market share growth slower than expected; raw material cost fluctuations.

Vector 3: Specialized Encapsulation & Materials

Companies providing the critical materials that protect PV cells and electronics in the harsh space environment.

7. Lens Technology (300433.SZ) – Aerospace Grade UTG & Structural Materials

• Investment Logic: Lens Technology is expanding beyond consumer electronics into commercial aerospace materials, defining the physical standards for next-gen compute satellites.
• Key Products:
  • Aerospace UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass): 30-60μm thickness, bend radius <1.5mm. Enables "tape-measure" style folding of solar wings, drastically reducing launch volume/cost. High transparency (>93%) and resistance to atomic oxygen/UV.
  • Lightweight Server Racks: Aluminum-magnesium alloy die-casting combined with precision ceramics. Reduces satellite net weight while providing vibration damping and structural integrity for onboard AI chips.
  • TGV (Through-Glass Via) Substrates: Next-gen packaging material for chips, offering superior electrical insulation and heat dissipation in vacuum environments. Critical for maintaining chip reliability in space.
• Key Catalysts: Partnerships with head commercial aerospace clients for flexible solar wing encapsulation and lightweight structural components.
• Risk: New business segment is small relative to total revenue; qualification cycles for aerospace materials are long.

Detailed Market Analysis & Data Support

1. Satellite Manufacturing Value Chain Decomposition

To understand where value accrues, we decompose the satellite manufacturing process:

• Upstream (Components):
  • Payload (50-70% of cost): The mission-specific hardware (cameras, transponders, compute chips). This is the highest value segment.
  • Platform (20-30% of cost): The bus that supports the payload.
    • Power System: ~22% of platform cost. This is the direct addressable market for SBPV.
    • Propulsion: Highest cost sub-system in the platform.
    • Others: Structure, AOCS (Attitude and Orbit Control), TTC (Telemetry, Tracking, and Command), Thermal Control.
• Downstream (Integration):
  • Overall Design & AIT (Assembly, Integration, Test): Converts components into a flight-ready satellite. Companies like Junda Shares and CETC institutes dominate this space in China.

Implication: Investors should favor companies that integrate upwards (OEMs like Junda) or dominate critical high-barrier sub-systems (Power Systems like CETC Blue Sky, Materials like Lens Tech).

2. Communication Satellite Power Evolution

The trend towards higher power is driven by the need for higher bandwidth and direct-to-cell capabilities.

Note: Peak power calculated based on solar irradiance (1366 W/m²), efficiency (15-30%), and area utilization (80%).

This 5-10x increase in power per satellite directly translates to a proportional increase in PV module demand per launch, even if launch counts remained flat (which they are not).

3. Global Launch Cadence & Market Share

The concentration of launch capability is a key risk and opportunity factor.

• 2025 Actuals:
  • Total Launches: ~4,133 satellites.
  • SpaceX: ~3,170 (77%).
  • China: ~305 (7%).
  • Others: ~658 (16%).
• 2026-2028 Forecast:
  • We assume SpaceX maintains ~85% share due to Starship ramp-up.
  • China’s share grows to ~12% as G60 and GW constellations accelerate.
  • Launch Growth Rates: 150% (2026), 130% (2027), 100% (2028).

China’s ITU Filings:
In late 2025, China filed for 203,000 new satellites (CTC-1/CTC-2 constellations). Under ITU rules, these must be launched by 2039. This implies an average annual launch rate of ~50,000 satellites/year in the late 2030s, ensuring long-term demand visibility for Chinese SBPV suppliers.

4. Space Compute: Technical & Economic Deep Dive

Why Ground Data Centers are Hitting a Wall

1. Grid Congestion: The US grid interconnection queue has 2,600 GW of pending projects (2x current capacity). Average wait time is 5 years. In Northern Virginia (the world’s largest data center market), it is 7 years.
2. Water Scarcity: Cooling towers consume massive amounts of water. A 40MW cluster uses 1.7 million tons of water over 10 years. This is unsustainable in drought-prone regions.
3. Land Constraints: Hyperscale campuses require thousands of acres, facing local zoning opposition.

The Space Solution

• Energy: Solar irradiance in LEO is constant and intense. No clouds, no night (in dawn-dusk orbits).
• Cooling: Radiative cooling into deep space is highly efficient. Heat radiators can be smaller than solar arrays. No water needed.
• Latency: For many AI training tasks, latency is less critical than throughput. Optical inter-satellite links provide high-bandwidth backhaul. For edge computing (e.g., processing satellite imagery instantly), space compute eliminates the downlink bottleneck.

Cost Sensitivity Analysis

Our model shows parity at $1.3/W PV cost.
* Current Ground TOPCon Price: ~$0.10/W.
* Current Space GaAs Price: >$100/W (niche, low volume).
* Target Space Silicon/HJT/Perovskite Price: $1.3/W.

This suggests a massive margin opportunity. Even if space PV modules cost 10x more than ground modules, the total system cost is competitive because it eliminates the $13B+ electricity bill and $14B+ infrastructure cost of ground data centers.

5. Company-Specific Financial & Operational Highlights

Junda Shares (002865.SZ)

• Transformation: From PERC cell maker to Space OEM.
• Subsidiary: Xuntian Qianhe (60% owned).
• Tech: XT-platforms (10-1000kg).
• Synergy: Integration with Shangyi Optoelectronics for Perovskite/CPI film tech.
• Investment Thesis: Unique "Build-Test-Iterate" loop. Junda builds the satellite, installs its own PV tech, and gets real-world data faster than competitors. This accelerates R&D and creates a moat.

CETC Blue Sky (688061.SH)

• Market Position: #1 in China for space power systems (>50% share).
• Revenue Stability: Backed by state defense and major commercial constellations (Guowang, G60).
• Tech: 34.4% efficient GaAs cells validated in orbit.
• Investment Thesis: Pure play on satellite power. As satellite power demands rise (from kW to 100kW), CETC’s content per satellite increases significantly.

Maxwell Technologies (300751.SZ)

• Equipment Leader: HJT 4.0 line reduces CapEx and OpEx for cell makers.
• Tandem Tech: First commercial order for Perovskite/HJT tandem line (Dec 2025).
• Investment Thesis: Enabler of high-efficiency cells. As space PV moves towards tandem structures for higher efficiency/weight ratio, Maxwell’s equipment becomes essential.

Risen Energy (300118.SZ)

• Product: P-type Ultra-Thin HJT.
• Advantage: Flexibility and radiation hardness.
• Partnership: With Shanghai Gangwan for Perovskite/HJT tandem.
• Investment Thesis: Differentiated product for a niche but high-growth market. Less exposure to commoditized ground PV price wars.

Shanghai Gangwan (605598.SH)

• Niche Focus: Space power subsystems.
• Validation: Perovskite cells stable in orbit for 9+ months.
• Clients: Jilin-1, Geespace, etc.
• Investment Thesis: Early mover in commercial space Perovskite. Proven reliability de-risks adoption for larger constellations.

Lens Technology (300433.SZ)

• Material Innovation: UTG for solar wings, TGV for chip packaging.
• Application: Critical for reducing launch mass and volume.
• Investment Thesis: "Pick and shovel" play. Regardless of which satellite OEM wins, they all need lightweight, durable materials. Lens Tech’s expertise in glass processing translates well to aerospace.

Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SH)

• Diversification: Wind -> PV -> Space Energy.
• Subsidiary: Dehua Chip (GaAs expertise).
• Tech: Perovskite-HJT tandem (>34% efficiency).
• Investment Thesis: Leveraging compound semiconductor heritage to capture high-end space PV market.

Conclusion

The Space-Based Photovoltaics industry is transitioning from a niche, cost-insensitive defense sector to a mass-market, cost-conscious commercial infrastructure pillar. The dual engines of communication constellation expansion (short-term) and space-based AI compute (medium-term) provide a clear, quantifiable path to hundreds of gigawatts of demand.

Investors should prioritize companies with:
1. Proven In-Orbit Validation: (e.g., CETC Blue Sky, Shanghai Gangwan).
2. Vertical Integration: Ability to control the satellite platform and PV tech (e.g., Junda Shares).
3. Technological Moats: High-efficiency tandem cells or specialized materials (e.g., Maxwell, Risen, Lens Tech).

The economic parity of space compute, combined with the urgent need for AI infrastructure, makes SBPV one of the most attractive growth stories in the new energy landscape for 2026 and beyond.

Appendix: Detailed Financial & Operational Tables

Table 1: Global Satellite Launch Forecast & SBPV Demand

Source: Guojin Securities Estimates, Space Map Data.

Table 2: Space vs. Ground Data Center TCO (1GW, 7 Years)

Source: Guojin Securities Estimates.

Table 3: Major Compute Constellation Plans

Source: FCC Filings, Company Announcements, Guojin Securities Estimates.

Disclaimer

This report is prepared by Guojin Securities Research Institute. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Guojin Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.

Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. holds the copyright to this report. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or modification is prohibited.