Equity Research: Optical Module Equipment Sector
AI-Driven Supercycle: Capitalizing on the "Pick-and-Shovel" Play in High-Speed Optical Interconnects
Date: March 16, 2026
Analysts: Zhou Ershuang (S0600515110002), Li Wenyi (S0600524080005)
Sector: Industrial Machinery / Semiconductor Equipment / Optical Communications
Rating: Overweight
Executive Summary
The global artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out has triggered a structural paradigm shift in data center networking, driving an unprecedented demand for high-speed optical modules. As training and inference clusters scale from thousands to hundreds of thousands of GPUs, the bottleneck has shifted from compute power to interconnect bandwidth. This dynamic is accelerating the transition of optical module rates from 400G to 800G and rapidly toward 1.6T, with Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and Optical I/O (OIO) emerging as the long-term architectural endgame.
This report posits that while optical module manufacturers are the direct beneficiaries of volume growth, the equipment suppliers for packaging and testing represent a higher-leverage investment opportunity. The industry is undergoing a dual transformation: volume expansion driven by AI capex, and value uplift driven by technological complexity. High-speed modules require sub-micron precision in die attach, active/passive alignment (coupling), and comprehensive electro-optical testing. Furthermore, the shift toward CPO introduces semiconductor-grade advanced packaging processes (2.5D/3D integration, TSV) into the optical domain, significantly raising the barrier to entry and increasing capital expenditure per production line.
We estimate that the global market for optical module packaging and testing equipment will more than double in the coming years, with new demand for 800G+ module equipment exceeding RMB 40 billion by 2028. We identify three core investment themes:
1. Automation Imperative: Rising labor costs and overseas expansion (Southeast Asia) are forcing a shift from labor-intensive assembly to fully automated, turnkey solutions.
2. Domestic Substitution: While low-end segments are saturated, high-precision coupling, gold wire bonding, and high-end test instruments remain dominated by foreign players, offering significant import substitution potential for leading Chinese firms.
3. Technological Iteration: The evolution toward CPO/OIO requires new equipment capabilities, creating a "greenfield" opportunity for equipment vendors with semiconductor packaging expertise.
We recommend a Buy rating on leaders with proven technology moats and deep binding to top-tier customers, specifically Robotechnik (via ficonTEC acquisition), Autovision, Kaige Precision, Bozhong Precision, Kerui Technology, and Rigol Technologies. We also highlight pre-IPO candidates Lieqi Intelligent and Lianxun Instruments as key benchmarks for industry valuation and technological progress.
Key Takeaways
1. AI Compute Drives a Generational Upgrade in Optical Modules
- Scale-Out to Scale-Up Evolution: Traditionally, optical modules served "Scale-Out" networks (server-to-switch interconnects). However, as GPU clusters exceed 100 XPUs per node, copper interconnects face severe signal attenuation and power constraints at rates above 112G/lane. This necessitates a shift toward optical interconnects even within "Scale-Up" networks (node-internal interconnects), expanding the total addressable market (TAM) for optical components.
- Explosive Volume Growth: Global optical module shipments are projected to reach 70 million units in 2026, with 800G+ modules accounting for over 52 million units. Specifically, 800G shipments are expected to hit 41 million, and 1.6T shipments 11 million in 2026.
- Vendor Ramp-Up: Leading manufacturers such as InnoLight (Zhongji Xuchuang), Eoptolink (Xin Yisheng), Mellanox (Nvidia), and Coherent are experiencing exponential growth. InnoLight’s 1.6T shipments are projected to grow 10x YoY in 2026, reaching 8.05 million units. This surge demands rapid capacity expansion, directly translating into equipment orders.
2. Equipment Value Chain: Coupling and Testing are the High-Value Core
- Process Breakdown: The core packaging process involves Die Attach, Wire Bonding, Optical Coupling, Assembly, and Testing.
- Value Distribution: Coupling and Testing are the most valuable segments, collectively accounting for >60% of equipment value per line.
- Coupling (~40%): Requires nanometer-level precision. For 800G/1.6T modules, alignment tolerance is tight (<0.5μm deviation causes 3dB loss).
- Die Attach (~20%): Precision has tightened from ±5μm (400G) to ±3μm (800G/1.6T).
- Test Instruments (~15%) & Reliability/Aging (~12%): Critical for yield management.
- CapEx Intensity: Equipment investment per 1 million units of capacity is rising. For 800G modules, it is ~RMB 500 million; for 1.6T, it rises to ~RMB 600 million due to higher precision and automation requirements.
- Market Sizing: We forecast cumulative new equipment demand for 800G+ modules to exceed RMB 40 billion by 2028. Coupling equipment alone will account for RMB 19.4 billion of this total.
3. Technological Shift: From Pluggable to CPO/OIO
- Current State: 800G/1.6T modules are currently predominantly pluggable (DPO/LPO). LPO (Linear Pluggable Optics) removes the DSP, reducing power by ~36% compared to DSP-based modules, but CPO offers deeper savings.
- CPO Advantage: Co-Packaged Optics integrates the optical engine directly with the ASIC switch chip. In a GB300 NVL72 cluster scenario, transitioning from DPO to CPO reduces transceiver power by 84% and total network cost by 21-46% (depending on network architecture layers).
- Equipment Implications for CPO:
- Integration: Discrete die attach and coupling merge into a single, ultra-high-precision Flip-Chip/Die-Bonding process.
- Advanced Packaging: Introduction of 2.5D/3D packaging, Through-Silicon Vias (TSV), and hybrid bonding. This brings optical packaging closer to semiconductor front-end/middle-end processes.
- Testing Shift: Testing moves upstream to wafer-level and known-good-die (KGD) stages, requiring new categories of probe stations and wafer-level optical test systems.
- Timeline: CPO is expected to begin small-scale mass production in 2025, with OIO following in 2026. The CPO market is projected to grow from $46 million in 2024 to $5.4 billion by 2030 (CAGR 121%).
4. Structural Opportunities: Automation, Customization, and Localization
- Automation Necessity: The optical module industry has historically been labor-intensive (e.g., InnoLight’s production staff comprised 66% of total headcount in 2024). However, overseas expansion (Thailand, Malaysia) and rising labor costs, combined with the micron-level precision required for 1.6T/CPO, make full automation non-negotiable.
- Customization & Stickiness: Equipment is highly customized to client-specific processes. Top equipment vendors often derive >50% of revenue from top 1-2 clients (e.g., Lieqi Intelligent derives ~59% from InnoLight). This creates high switching costs and strong customer stickiness.
- Import Substitution:
- High-End Gap: While domestic share is high in low-end assembly, high-precision die attachers, gold wire bonders, and high-bandwidth test instruments (oscilloscopes, BERTs) are still dominated by US/Japanese/European firms (Keysight, Anritsu, FiconTEC, K&S).
- Breakthroughs: Chinese firms like Lianxun Instruments (test) and Lieqi Intelligent (coupling/attach) are achieving parity in key specs (e.g., 65GHz oscilloscopes, ±0.05μm coupling precision), accelerating localization.
Industry Deep Dive: Technology & Market Dynamics
1. Optical Module Fundamentals and AI Drivers
1.1 The Role of Optical Modules in AI Clusters
Optical modules are the critical transceivers converting electrical signals to optical signals for transmission over fiber. In AI data centers, they are primarily used in Scale-Out networks (connecting servers to switches and switches to each other).
* Scale-Out vs. Scale-Up:
* Scale-Out: Traditional domain of optical modules. Distance ranges from 10m (AOC) to 10km+ (LR/ZR).
* Scale-Up: Internal node interconnect (GPU-GPU). Historically dominated by PCB/Copper (NVLink, PCIe). However, as cluster sizes grow to hundreds of XPUs, copper suffers from excessive power consumption and signal loss at high frequencies (112G+). Optical interconnects are becoming the inevitable solution for Scale-Up, opening a new, high-volume market segment previously inaccessible to optical modules.
1.2 The "Optical Moore’s Law"
The industry follows a predictable iteration cycle: every 3-4 years, bandwidth doubles, while cost-per-bit and power-per-bit halve.
* Current Cycle: Transition from 400G to 800G (mainstream in 2024-2025) and 1.6T (ramping in 2025-2026).
* Next Cycle: 3.2T and beyond, likely enabled by CPO/OIO architectures.
1.3 Shipment Forecasts and Capacity Expansion
The demand visibility is exceptionally high due to the locked-in capex plans of hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent).
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 800G+ Shipments (Million Units) | 10 | 20 | 60 | 100 | 150 |
| Equip. Investment per 1M Units (RMB bn) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.0 |
| Total Equipment Demand (RMB bn) | 71 | 143 | 454 | 800 | 1,286 |
| YoY Growth in Equip. Demand | - | 101% | 217% | 76% | 61% |
Source: Trendforce, Dongwu Securities Institute Estimates
Major Vendor Capacity Plans (2025-2026):
* InnoLight (Zhongji Xuchuang): Thailand plant operational (500k/month capacity); Suzhou HQ (2M/month). Targeting >1M/month globally by 2026.
* Eoptolink (Xin Yisheng): Thailand Phase 1 operational, Phase 2 under construction. Scaling to 400-500k/month by 2026.
* Accelink: Wuhan Donghu base under construction (annual capacity ~5M units).
* Coherent: Expanding Indium Phosphide (InP) wafer capacity globally; module assembly expanding in Malaysia/Vietnam.
2. Core Equipment Segments: Technical Barriers and Value Analysis
The manufacturing of high-speed optical modules is a complex synergy of semiconductor packaging, precision optics, and electronic assembly. The three highest-value equipment categories are Die Attach, Coupling, and Testing.
2.1 Die Attach (Post-Die Bonding)
- Function: Precisely placing optical chips (Lasers, PDs), Driver ICs, and TIAs onto substrates/PCBs.
- Key Technologies:
- Eutectic Bonding: Uses AuSn solder at high temp/pressure. High thermal conductivity, high reliability. Complex process control required.
- Die Attach (Conductive Epoxy): Uses silver epoxy. Faster, lower cost, suitable for electric chips and PDs.
- Precision Requirements:
- 400G: ±5μm for optical chips.
- 800G/1.6T: ±3μm for optical chips. This tight tolerance is critical because any misalignment here compounds errors in the subsequent coupling stage.
- Market Status: High-end market dominated by ASMPT, K&S, and Mycronic. Domestic leaders like Lieqi Intelligent and Kaige Precision are gaining share with ±1.5μm machine precision (±3μm process precision).
2.2 Optical Coupling (The Critical Bottleneck)
- Function: Aligning the light source (laser/fiber) with the receiver (waveguide/PD) to minimize insertion loss.
- Why it’s Hard: Single-mode fiber core is only 9μm; silicon photonics waveguides are sub-micron. A deviation of >0.5μm can cause a 3dB power loss (50% signal loss).
- Two Methodologies:
- Active Alignment (AA): "Search and Lock." The device is powered on, emitting light. A 6-axis nano-positioning stage moves the component while monitoring power output to find the peak.
- Pros: High yield, tolerant of earlier process variations.
- Cons: Slow (10-60 seconds/channel), expensive equipment, high labor/equipment cost. Dominant in legacy 10G-400G.
- Passive Alignment (PA): "Blind Mount." Relies on extreme precision in previous steps (lithography, die attach) and mechanical fiducials. No real-time light monitoring during mount.
- Pros: Fast (<1 second/channel), scalable for multi-channel arrays (silicon photonics/CPO).
- Cons: Requires ultra-high precision upstream processes. Essential for 800G/1.6T and CPO.
- Active Alignment (AA): "Search and Lock." The device is powered on, emitting light. A 6-axis nano-positioning stage moves the component while monitoring power output to find the peak.
- Equipment Specs:
- Repeatability: ±0.05μm for 800G/1.6T.
- Resolution: 10nm level.
- Key Players: FiconTEC (Global Leader), Lieqi Intelligent, Leishen Technology.
- Value: Coupling equipment accounts for ~40% of the total line value.
2.3 Testing: Instruments and ATE
- Distinction from Semiconductor Test: Semiconductor test is purely electrical. Optical module test is Electro-Optical-Electrical (EOE). It requires verifying electrical input, optical output (power, wavelength, eye diagram), and electrical output simultaneously.
- Two Categories:
- Test Instruments (R&D/Validation):
- Sampling Oscilloscopes: Measure eye diagrams, jitter, TDECQ. Key metric: Bandwidth (e.g., 65GHz for 1.6T).
- Bit Error Rate Testers (BERT): Measure BER and sensitivity. Key metric: Max baud rate (e.g., 120GBaud).
- Barriers: Extremely high. Core chips (ADC/DAC, amplifiers) are monopolized by Keysight, Anritsu, Viavi.
- Domestic Progress: Lianxun Instruments and Rigol Technologies are breaking through. Lianxun offers 65GHz oscilloscopes and 120GBaud CRUs, nearing global flagship specs.
- Automated Test Equipment (ATE) & Aging (Production):
- Aging Test: High-temperature operating life (HTOL) screening for chips and modules. Critical for reliability. Lieqi Intelligent and Lianxun offer systems with ±1°C uniformity and high channel density, matching Chroma (Taiwan) specs.
- Module ATE: Integrated systems for high-throughput functional testing (power, I2C, TX/RX loopback). Replaces manual instrument setups.
- Test Instruments (R&D/Validation):
2.4 AOI (Automated Optical Inspection)
- Role: Visual inspection at multiple stages (PCB, Post-Die Attach, Post-Wire Bond, Post-Coupling).
- Upgrade Logic: 800G/1.6T features are too small for human eye inspection. AOI ensures consistency and reduces labor.
- Technical Complexity: Requires multi-angle cameras (top + side), variable magnification lenses, and AI-driven algorithms to distinguish true defects from noise. Precision requirement: ±1-3μm.
- Market Size: Estimated at RMB 3.75 billion in 2026 for 800G+ modules alone.
- Key Players: Autovision, Tianzhun Technology, Quick Intelligent.
3. Future Trends: The CPO/OIO Revolution
3.1 Why CPO?
As speeds approach 3.2T and beyond, the electrical trace length between the ASIC and the pluggable module becomes a major source of signal loss and power consumption. CPO moves the optical engine inside the package, adjacent to the ASIC.
* Power Savings: Up to 50% reduction in I/O power.
* Density: Higher bandwidth per mm².
* Cost: Lower total cost of ownership (TCO) for large clusters despite higher initial packaging complexity.
3.2 Equipment Changes in the CPO Era
The transition to CPO fundamentally reshapes the equipment landscape:
| Process Step | Traditional Pluggable (EML/SiPh) | CPO / OIO | Equipment Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Die Attach | Separate step. Precision ±3-5μm. | Integrated Flip-Chip. Precision ±0.3-1μm. | Higher Value: Requires semiconductor-grade flip-chip bonders. |
| Wire Bonding | Gold wire bonding common. | Eliminated/Reduced. Replaced by TSV/RDL. | Decline: Wire bonder demand drops; TSV etch/litho demand rises. |
| Coupling | Active Alignment (slow, discrete). | Passive Alignment. Integrated into attach. | Transformation: Coupling becomes part of the attach process. High-precision vision/alignment critical. |
| Packaging | BOX/Butterfly hermetic packages. | 2.5D/3D Interposers. Non-hermetic COB. | New Opportunity: Demand for TSV etching, grinding, and hybrid bonding tools. |
| Testing | Final module test. | Wafer-Level & KGD Test. | Shift Upstream: Need for wafer probers with optical capability. |
3.3 Advanced Packaging Challenges in CPO
* TSV on SOI Wafers: Silicon Photonics uses Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI) wafers. Etching Through-Silicon Vias (TSV) in SOI is difficult due to Buried Oxide (SiO2) layers and Bulk Microdefects (BMDs), which can cause "Silicon Grass" and rough sidewalls during Bosch etching. This creates a niche demand for specialized etch and process control equipment.
* 2.5D Integration: Using silicon or glass interposers to route signals between EIC (Electronic IC) and PIC (Photonic IC). This leverages existing semiconductor advanced packaging supply chains.
Company Analysis: Key Beneficiaries
We categorize recommended companies into three groups: Global Leaders via M&A, Domestic Automation & AOI Leaders, and Test & Measurement Specialists.
1. Robotechnik (300757.SZ) – The Global Coupling Leader
- Investment Thesis: Successful acquisition of ficonTEC (completed May 2025) positions Robotechnik as the undisputed global leader in high-precision optical coupling and assembly.
- ficonTEC Profile:
- Revenue/Profit: 2024 Revenue ~€65M (RMB 505M), Net Profit ~€5M (RMB 37M). Projected 2025 Revenue RMB 637M, Net Profit RMB 83M.
- Margins: Gross Margin >40%, Net Margin improving to ~13% post-integration.
- Customer Moat: Sole supplier for Broadcom’s CPO coupling equipment (14+ units delivered for first-gen switches). Core supplier for Nvidia (€24.3M backlog as of July 2024). Also serves Intel, Huawei, Valeo.
- Technology: Unmatched precision in active/passive alignment. Essential for 1.6T and CPO production.
- Valuation: High P/E reflects its monopoly-like position in the highest-value segment of the optical equipment chain.
2. Autovision (688516.SH) – AOI Cross-Over Success
- Investment Thesis: Leveraging synergies from PV/Semiconductor AOI to dominate optical module inspection.
- Progress:
- Entered optical module AOI market in 2024. Secured batch orders from top domestic clients in Q1 2025.
- Technology: 1μm precision, 3D spectral confocal sensors, AI-driven defect recognition (>99% accuracy). Supports 400G-1.6T.
- Strategy: Use AOI as a "trojan horse" to enter customer lines, then cross-sell welding, screw-driving, and die-attach equipment.
- Outlook: AOI revenue expected to break out in 2026. Strong potential for overseas expansion alongside module makers.
3. Kaige Precision (301338.SZ) – Turnkey Automation Specialist
- Investment Thesis: Leader in backend module assembly automation.
- Key Wins:
- Sole supplier for Fabrinet (Nvidia’s primary module manufacturer) for 800G/1.6T assembly lines.
- Delivered 3x 800G lines in 2024; 3x 1.6T lines in H1 2025. Continued deliveries scheduled for 2026.
- Provides flexible, modular whole-line solutions (~16 machines/line).
- Future Growth: Expanding into die-attach and CPO-related packaging equipment, leveraging its precision motion control expertise.
4. Bozhong Precision (688097.SH) – Platform Precision Manufacturing
- Investment Thesis: Broad platform capabilities from Apple/Consumer Electronics applied to optical modules.
- Capabilities:
- Strong in FATP (Final Assembly, Test, and Pack) lines.
- Optical Specifics: High-precision eutectic die attachers (qualified for 400G/800G, ready for 1.6T).
- Recent Move: Acquired 60% of Zhongnan Hongsi (March 2026) to add coupling technology, completing the "Attach + Couple" core workflow.
- Outlook: Beneficiary of both volume growth and the trend toward integrated automation solutions.
5. Kerui Technology (002957.SZ) – Customized Automation Partner
- Investment Thesis: Deep engagement in custom automation for leading module makers.
- Portfolio: Covers eutectic/die attach, coupling, assembly, and AOI.
- Status: Orders increasing as clients upgrade to 1.6T. Strong "Key Account" strategy ensures stable revenue streams from top-tier clients.
6. Rigol Technologies (688337.SH) – Domestic Test Instrument Leader
- Investment Thesis: Primary beneficiary of test equipment localization.
- Products: Digital Oscilloscopes (up to 13GHz), RF instruments.
- Optical Entry: Precision power supplies already widely used in module test racks. Developing high-bandwidth sampling oscilloscopes for 3.2T era.
- Strength: Self-developed chipsets reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.
7. Tianzhun Technology (688003.SH) – General Purpose Vision
- Investment Thesis: High-precision industrial vision equipment.
- Role: While not offering dedicated optical module lines, its general-purpose coordinate measuring machines (CMM) and AOI systems are widely purchased by optical communication firms for R&D and quality control of molds, PCBs, and components.
8. Pre-IPO Benchmarks: Lieqi Intelligent & Lianxun Instruments
- Lieqi Intelligent:
- Profile: Dominant in Die Attach and Coupling.
- Market Share: #1 Global in Die Attach (21% share), #2 in Coupling (18% share).
- Client: Deeply bound to InnoLight (>55% revenue).
- Tech: ±0.05μm coupling precision, ±3μm attach precision.
- Lianxun Instruments:
- Profile: Leading domestic optical test equipment vendor.
- Market Share: #1 in China for Optoelectronic Device Test Equipment.
- Tech: 65GHz Oscilloscope, 120GBaud CRU, 1.6T BERT. One of only two global vendors with full 1.6T test solutions.
- Client: InnoLight, Eoptolink, Lumentum, Coherent.
(Note: Other notable unlisted players include Microview Intelligence (high-precision die attach, breaking US/Japan monopoly) and Leishen Technology (cost-effective coupling solutions).)
Financial Forecasts and Valuation
The following table summarizes the valuation metrics for the covered listed companies as of March 13, 2026. Note that earnings estimates for Robotechnik reflect the consolidation of ficonTEC.
| Code | Company | Price (RMB) | Market Cap (RMB bn) | Net Profit (RMB bn) | PE Ratio | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | ||||
| 300757.SZ | Robotechnik | 387.85 | 65.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1,018 | 500 | 337 | 273 |
| 688516.SH | Autovision | 75.98 | 24.0 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 19 | 35 | 39 | 37 |
| 603203.SH | Quick Intelligent | 39.25 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 47 | 37 | 31 | 26 |
| 688003.SH | Tianzhun Tech | 58.59 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 91 | 113 | 42 | 30 |
| 301338.SZ | Kaige Precision | 188.06 | 20.0 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 284 | 104 | 50 | 33 |
| 688097.SH | Bozhong Precision | 66.00 | 29.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 74 | 53 | 40 | 32 |
| 002957.SZ | Kerui Technology | 26.25 | 11.0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 79 | 37 | 31 | 23 |
| 688337.SH | Rigol Technologies | 43.98 | 8.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 92 | 84 | 57 | 41 |
Source: Wind Consensus (for Quick, Kerui), Dongwu Securities Institute Estimates (others).
Valuation Commentary:
* Robotechnik commands a premium valuation due to its unique exposure to the global CPO/1.6T capex cycle via ficonTEC. The high P/E in 2024/2025 normalizes as ficonTEC’s profits consolidate and scale.
* Kaige Precision and Tianzhun Technology show high growth elasticity, with PEs compressing rapidly as earnings accelerate in 2026-2027.
* Autovision and Kerui Technology offer more reasonable valuations relative to growth, benefiting from diversified industrial bases while capturing optical upside.
* Rigol Technologies is valued as a steady growth instrument player, with upside potential from high-end product mix shifts.
Risks / Headwinds
Investors should be aware of the following risks that could impact the sector's performance:
- AI Capex Slowdown: The entire thesis rests on continued aggressive spending by hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, etc.) on AI infrastructure. If macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or ROI on AI models disappoints, capex could be curtailed, leading to delayed orders for optical modules and, subsequently, equipment. Equipment orders typically lag module orders by 6-9 months, amplifying the downside.
- Technology Adoption Delays (800G/1.6T/CPO):
- If yield rates for 1.6T modules remain low, mass production may be delayed.
- If CPO/OIO technical hurdles (thermal management, repairability) are not resolved faster than expected, the market may stick with pluggable LPO/DPO solutions longer than anticipated. This would delay the demand for advanced packaging equipment (TSV, flip-chip) while sustaining demand for traditional coupling/attach tools.
- Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks:
- Trade restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment or components (e.g., high-end ADC/DAC chips for test instruments) could hinder the progress of domestic substitution.
- Tariffs or political pressure on Chinese manufacturing in Southeast Asia could disrupt the overseas expansion plans of module makers.
- Competition and Price Wars:
- As the market grows, new entrants may flood the mid-low end equipment market, driving down prices and margins.
- Even in high-end segments, if foreign incumbents (Keysight, FiconTEC pre-acquisition, ASMPT) engage in aggressive pricing to defend share, domestic players’ margin expansion could be capped.
- Customer Concentration Risk: Many equipment suppliers (e.g., Lieqi, Kerui) are heavily dependent on one or two major clients (e.g., InnoLight). Loss of a key customer or a reduction in their capex would have a disproportionate impact on revenue.
Rating / Sector Outlook
Sector Rating: Overweight
The optical module equipment sector is in the early-to-mid stages of a multi-year supercycle driven by AI. Unlike the module manufacturers who face intense competition and margin pressure, equipment suppliers enjoy:
1. Higher Barriers to Entry: Precision mechanics, optical algorithms, and software integration create wide moats.
2. Operating Leverage: Fixed R&D costs are spread over rapidly growing volumes.
3. Structural Growth: The shift to CPO and automation increases the value of equipment per unit, not just the volume.
We maintain a positive outlook for the next 12-24 months. The visibility of orders through 2026 is high, given the lead times for capacity expansion.
Top Picks:
* Robotechnik (300757.SZ): Best pure-play on global high-end coupling/CPO tech.
* Autovision (688516.SH): Strong execution in AOI, undervalued relative to growth potential.
* Kaige Precision (301338.SZ): Direct beneficiary of Nvidia/Fabrinet capacity expansion.
Investment View
Strategic Allocation Framework
For institutional investors, we recommend a barbell strategy within the optical equipment sector:
- Core Holding (High Certainty, High Quality): Allocate significant weight to Robotechnik and Autovision. Robotechnik provides exposure to the global cutting-edge (CPO/1.6T) through ficonTEC, insulating it somewhat from domestic price wars. Autovision offers a balanced risk-reward profile with its diversified industrial base and rapidly growing optical AOI business.
- Growth Satellite (High Elasticity): Add positions in Kaige Precision and Bozhong Precision. These companies are directly tied to the volume ramp of 800G/1.6T in Southeast Asia and have demonstrated strong order momentum with key clients like Fabrinet and InnoLight. Their valuations, while elevated, are justified by the triple-digit earnings growth expected in 2025-2026.
- Thematic Bet (Localization & Tech Breakthrough): Monitor Rigol Technologies and Kerui Technology. Rigol is a long-term play on the secular trend of test instrument localization in China. Kerui offers a lower-valuation entry point into the automation theme, with potential for re-rating as its optical business scales.
Key Monitoring Indicators
Investors should track the following data points to validate the investment thesis:
* Hyperscaler Capex Guidance: Quarterly reports from Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon.
* Module Shipment Data: Monthly/quarterly shipment figures from InnoLight, Eoptolink, and Coherent (often available via customs data or company disclosures).
* Equipment Order Announcements: Look for contract awards from major module makers to equipment vendors.
* CPO Milestones: News regarding Broadcom/Nvidia CPO deployment volumes and yield rates.
* Domestic Substitution Rates: Market share gains by Lianxun, Lieqi, and Rigol in high-end segments previously held by Keysight/Anritsu.
Conclusion
The AI revolution is not just a story of chips; it is a story of connectivity. As the "plumbing" of the AI data center becomes more complex, the tools required to build and test that plumbing become increasingly valuable. The optical module equipment sector offers a rare combination of high growth, technological moats, and structural tailwinds (automation/CPO). We believe the market has yet to fully price in the magnitude of the equipment upcycle, particularly in the high-precision coupling and advanced testing segments. We urge investors to accumulate positions in the identified leaders ahead of the 2026-2027 earnings acceleration.
Appendix: Detailed Technical Comparisons
A. Coupling Equipment Performance Benchmark
| Parameter | Lieqi Intelligent | Leishen Technology | FiconTEC (Robotechnik) |
|---|---|---|---|
| X/Y/Z Repeatability | ±0.05μm | ±0.05μm (Single-mode) | ±0.02μm |
| Resolution | 10nm | N/A | 5nm |
| Alignment Algorithm | Proprietary Spiral Search | N/A | Fast Alignment (1D/2D) |
| Motor Type | Linear Motor | N/A | Linear Motor |
| Automation Level | Fully Automatic | N/A | Fully Automatic |
Source: Lieqi Intelligent Prospectus, Dongwu Securities Institute
B. Test Instrument Performance Benchmark (Lianxun vs. Global Leaders)
| Product | Core Metric | Lianxun (Best Model) | Global Leader (Keysight/etc.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sampling Oscilloscope | Bandwidth | 65GHz (DCA1065) | 120GHz (N1032) |
| Clock Recovery Unit | Max Rate | 120GBaud (CR3302) | 120GBaud (N1093B) |
| BERT | Max Rate | 113.44GBaud (PBT3058) | 120GBaud (8050A) |
| Wavelength Meter | Accuracy | 0.5pm | 0.064pm |
| Switch Matrix | Offset Current | 100fA | 10fA |
Source: Lianxun Instruments Prospectus, Dongwu Securities Institute
C. CPO vs. Pluggable Equipment Requirements
| Feature | Pluggable (800G/1.6T) | CPO / OIO |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Attach Method | Eutectic / Epoxy Die Attach | Flip-Chip / Hybrid Bonding |
| Coupling Method | Active Alignment (Dominant) | Passive Alignment (Integrated) |
| Interconnect | Gold Wire Bonding | TSV / RDL / Micro-bumps |
| Test Stage | Module Level (Post-Assembly) | Wafer Level / KGD (Pre-Assembly) |
| Key Equipment Additions | Standard SMT + Couplers | TSV Etch, Grinders, Wafer Probers |
Disclaimer
This report is prepared by Dongwu Securities Co., Ltd. ("Dongwu Securities") for institutional clients only. It is not intended for retail investors. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Dongwu Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
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