Junda Shares (002865.SZ): Accelerating Global Expansion Amidst Industry Consolidation; Maintaining "Recommend" Rating
Date: August 26, 2025
Ticker: 002865.SZ (Shenzhen Stock Exchange)
Current Price: CNY 47.36
Rating: Recommend (Maintained)
Analysts: Deng Yongkang, Lin Yutao, Zhu Biye, Wang Yiru
Executive Summary
Junda Shares (002865.SZ), a leading specialized manufacturer of high-efficiency solar cells, released its semi-annual report for the first half of 2025 (25H1) on August 25, 2025. The reporting period was characterized by significant structural shifts in the company’s revenue composition and continued pressure on profitability due to intense industry-wide competition. While top-line revenue declined year-over-year, the company successfully pivoted towards higher-value overseas markets, with overseas sales占比 (proportion) surging to over 50% in 25H1. Concurrently, Junda strengthened its capital structure through a successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX), raising net proceeds of HKD 1.29 billion to fund global capacity expansion and R&D.
Financially, 25H1 saw revenue of CNY 3.663 billion (-42.53% YoY) and a net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY 264 million. The second quarter (25Q2) exhibited a sequential widening of losses, reflecting ongoing price wars and inventory adjustments in the domestic market. However, operational metrics indicate resilience: the company achieved a >0.2% improvement in mass-production conversion efficiency for its N-type TOPCon cells and reduced non-silicon costs per watt by approximately 20%. Furthermore, strategic advancements in next-generation technologies, including TBC (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact Back Contact) and perovskite tandem cells, position Junda favorably for the next technology cycle.
We maintain our "Recommend" rating for Junda Shares. Our investment thesis rests on three pillars: (1) The successful execution of its globalization strategy, which mitigates domestic margin compression by accessing premium overseas markets; (2) Technological leadership in N-type TOPCon and early-mover advantage in TBC/perovskite technologies, ensuring long-term competitiveness; and (3) An anticipated inflection point in profitability as industry supply clears and demand stabilizes in 2026-2027. We project the company to return to profitability in 2026, with estimated net profits of CNY 712 million in 2026 and CNY 1.522 billion in 2027. At current valuation levels, the stock trades at an attractive forward P/E of 19x for 2026E and 9x for 2027E, offering a compelling risk-reward profile for long-term institutional investors positioned for the photovoltaic (PV) sector’s recovery.
Key Takeaways
1. Financial Performance: Revenue Contraction Reflects Industry Headwinds, Losses Expected to Peak in 2025
The first half of 2025 presented a challenging operating environment for the PV manufacturing sector, marked by oversupply and aggressive pricing. Junda Shares’ financial results reflect these macro-industry dynamics while highlighting specific company-level strategic shifts.
Half-Year Overview (25H1):
* Revenue: CNY 3.663 billion, representing a year-over-year (YoY) decline of 42.53%. This contraction is primarily attributed to the lower average selling prices (ASPs) of solar cells across the industry and a strategic adjustment in shipment volumes during the transition to higher-efficiency product mixes.
* Profitability: The company reported a net loss attributable to parent company shareholders of CNY 264 million. The deducted non-recurring net profit stood at CNY -465 million. The divergence between net loss and deducted non-recurring loss suggests some one-time gains or accounting adjustments partially offsetted operational losses, but core operations remain under pressure.
* Margin Pressure: The gross margin remained thin, consistent with industry averages during this downturn phase. The primary driver of losses was the compression of cell processing margins due to intense competition among TOPCon manufacturers.
Quarterly Trend Analysis (25Q2 vs. 25Q1):
* Revenue: In 25Q2, revenue amounted to CNY 1.788 billion, a YoY decrease of 32.76% and a sequential (QoQ) decrease of 4.61%. The sequential decline indicates that the market bottoming process is still ongoing, with demand softness persisting into the second quarter.
* Net Loss: The net loss for 25Q2 was CNY 158 million, with a deducted non-recurring net loss of CNY 248 million. Notably, the loss widened sequentially compared to 25Q1. This widening can be attributed to several factors:
1. Inventory Write-downs: Continued adjustments in inventory valuation as cell prices drifted lower.
2. Ramp-up Costs: Expenses associated with the optimization of new production lines and the initial stages of overseas capacity planning.
3. Price Lag: The lag effect of falling silicon wafer prices not fully translating into immediate cost savings before cell prices adjusted downward further.
Forward-Looking Financial Trajectory:
Despite the near-term pain, our financial model projects a clear turnaround trajectory. We anticipate 2025 to be the "bottoming-out" year for Junda’s earnings.
* 2025E: We forecast full-year revenue of CNY 8.113 billion (-18.5% YoY) and a net loss of CNY 403 million. This represents a narrowing of losses compared to the full-year 2024 result of CNY -591 million, implying improved operational efficiency in the second half of 2025.
* 2026E-2027E: As industry capacity exits and demand grows, we project a robust recovery. Revenue is expected to jump to CNY 12.167 billion in 2026 (+50.0% YoY) and CNY 14.191 billion in 2027 (+16.6% YoY). Correspondingly, net profit is projected to swing to positive CNY 712 million in 2026 and expand to CNY 1.522 billion in 2027. This implies a net profit growth rate of 276.7% in 2026 and 113.9% in 2027, driven by volume growth, better product mix, and stabilized margins.
| Financial Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue (CNY Mn) | 9,952 | 8,113 | 12,167 | 14,191 |
| YoY Growth (%) | -46.7% | -18.5% | 50.0% | 16.6% |
| Net Profit Attrib. to Shareholders (CNY Mn) | -591 | -403 | 712 | 1,522 |
| YoY Growth (%) | -172.5% | 31.8% | 276.7% | 113.9% |
| EPS (CNY) | -2.02 | -1.38 | 2.43 | 5.20 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 0.73% | 3.83% | 11.77% | 15.57% |
| Net Margin (%) | -5.94% | -4.97% | 5.85% | 10.73% |
| ROE (%) | -15.21% | -8.51% | 13.07% | 22.30% |
Source: Company Reports, Minsheng Securities Institute Estimates
The projected improvement in Gross Margin from 0.73% in 2024 to 15.57% in 2027 underscores our belief that Junda will regain pricing power as a differentiated, high-efficiency supplier in a consolidated market. The Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to turn positive in 2026 (13.07%) and reach robust levels of 22.30% by 2027, indicating efficient capital utilization post-turnaround.
2. Strategic Pivot: Overseas Market Expansion as a Core Growth Engine
One of the most significant developments in Junda’s 25H1 performance is the dramatic shift in its geographic revenue mix. The company has aggressively pursued an internationalization strategy to escape the hyper-competitive domestic Chinese market and capture higher margins in emerging and developed overseas markets.
Surge in Overseas Revenue Contribution:
* Metric Shift: In 2024, overseas sales accounted for 23.85% of total revenue. In 25H1, this proportion surged to 51.87%. This more than doubling of overseas contribution within six months highlights the success of Junda’s sales network expansion and customer acquisition efforts.
* Strategic Implication: Overseas markets, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, and emerging economies in Asia and Latin America, often offer better pricing stability and higher willingness to pay for premium, high-efficiency modules/cells compared to the domestic spot market. By shifting more than half of its sales offshore, Junda effectively hedges against domestic price volatility and improves its blended average selling price (ASP).
Certification and Network Build-out:
* Junda has successfully obtained certifications from multiple customers in emerging markets. These certifications are critical barriers to entry in the PV industry, requiring rigorous testing of product reliability, efficiency, and durability. Achieving these certifications validates Junda’s product quality and opens doors to long-term supply agreements with reputable international module manufacturers and project developers.
* The company is continuously refining its global sales network, establishing local presence and support systems to respond quickly to customer needs. This infrastructure build-out is essential for sustaining the high overseas revenue mix and fostering deeper customer relationships.
Turkey Strategic Partnership:
* A landmark development in 25H1 was the signing of a strategic cooperation agreement with a Turkish module customer to co-build a high-efficiency battery (cell) project.
* Market Context: Turkey represents a strategic gateway between Europe and Asia, with growing domestic renewable energy targets and favorable trade agreements with the EU. Localizing production or partnering with local entities helps mitigate potential trade barriers (such as tariffs or import restrictions) that may affect direct exports from China.
* Capacity Gap Fill: This partnership aims to fill the structural shortage of high-efficiency cell capacity in the region. By providing localized supply, Junda can secure a sticky customer base and potentially enjoy premium pricing due to the scarcity of local high-tech manufacturing capabilities.
* Future Outlook: This project serves as a blueprint for Junda’s broader global manufacturing strategy. It demonstrates the company’s ability to move beyond simple exports to integrated international partnerships, enhancing its resilience against geopolitical trade friction.
HKEX Listing: Fueling Global Ambitions:
* Listing Details: On May 8, 2025, Junda Shares successfully listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The IPO raised net proceeds of HKD 1.29 billion.
* Use of Proceeds: The capital raised is earmarked for:
1. Construction of overseas high-efficiency cell production capacity.
2. Expansion of overseas markets and establishment of overseas sales and operational systems.
3. Construction of a global R&D center.
4. Supplementing working capital.
* Strategic Benefits:
* Capital Strength: The influx of HKD 1.29 billion significantly strengthens Junda’s balance sheet, providing the necessary firepower for capital-intensive overseas expansion without over-leveraging. This is crucial given the high CAPEX requirements for building new fabs abroad.
* Brand Visibility: A dual-listing status (A-share + H-share) enhances Junda’s international brand recognition and credibility among global investors and customers. It signals transparency and adherence to international governance standards.
* Currency Diversification: Access to HKD/USD funding helps match revenue currencies with liability currencies, reducing foreign exchange risk associated with overseas operations.
* M&A Potential: The strengthened equity base positions Junda to pursue potential mergers or acquisitions of complementary technologies or distribution networks globally.
3. Technological Leadership: Cost Reduction and Next-Gen Innovation
In the PV industry, technological iteration is the primary driver of long-term survival and profitability. Junda continues to demonstrate its prowess as a specialized cell manufacturer by optimizing its current mainstream technology (N-type TOPCon) while aggressively researching next-generation solutions (TBC and Perovskite Tandem).
Optimization of N-type TOPCon Technology:
TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) has become the mainstream technology for high-efficiency crystalline silicon cells. Junda’s focus in 25H1 was on squeezing out every basis point of efficiency and cost from this platform.
- Efficiency Gains: The average mass-production conversion efficiency of Junda’s cells increased by >0.2% in 25H1. In the context of mature silicon technology, a 0.2% absolute gain is substantial. It translates directly to higher power output per module, allowing downstream customers to generate more electricity per square meter, thereby justifying a premium price for Junda’s cells.
- Cost Reduction Initiatives: Junda implemented several technical measures to reduce non-silicon costs (costs excluding the silicon wafer, such as silver paste, chemicals, energy, and labor):
- Metal Contact Optimization: Reducing metal composite resistance improves fill factor and efficiency while potentially reducing silver paste consumption through finer grid lines.
- Passivation Enhancement: Improving the quality of the tunnel oxide layer and poly-silicon layer reduces carrier recombination, boosting open-circuit voltage (Voc) and efficiency.
- Optical Performance Optimization: Enhancing light trapping structures increases the amount of sunlight absorbed by the cell, improving short-circuit current (Isc).
- Fine Line Grids: Implementing thinner grid lines reduces silver paste usage, a major component of non-silicon costs, without compromising conductivity.
- Result: These combined efforts led to an approximate 20% reduction in non-silicon cost per watt. This cost advantage is critical in a low-margin environment. It allows Junda to maintain positive gross margins even when cell prices are depressed, outperforming competitors with higher cost structures.
Layout for Next-Generation Battery Technologies:
Recognizing that TOPCon will eventually face efficiency ceilings and competition from newer technologies, Junda is proactively investing in R&D for post-TOPCon solutions.
-
TBC (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact Back Contact):
- Technology Profile: TBC combines the passivation benefits of TOPCon with the back-contact architecture, moving all metal contacts to the rear of the cell. This eliminates front-side shading, maximizing light absorption and aesthetic appeal.
- Performance: Junda’s TBC pilot line has achieved conversion efficiencies that are 1-1.5 percentage points higher than mainstream N-type cells. This significant efficiency leap positions TBC as a strong candidate for the next mainstream high-end market segment, particularly for residential and commercial rooftop applications where space and aesthetics are premium factors.
- Status: The existence of a functioning pilot line indicates that Junda is moving from lab-scale research to industrial-scale validation, de-risking the technology for future mass production.
-
Perovskite Tandem Cells:
- Technology Profile: Perovskite-silicon tandem cells stack a perovskite layer on top of a silicon cell. The perovskite layer absorbs high-energy photons (blue/UV light), while the silicon layer absorbs lower-energy photons (red/IR light). This broadens the spectral response, theoretically breaking the Shockley-Queisser limit of single-junction silicon cells.
- Breakthrough: Junda, in collaboration with external partners, has achieved a laboratory efficiency of 32.08% for its perovskite tandem cells. This figure is world-class and places Junda at the forefront of global tandem cell research.
- Strategic Value: While commercialization of tandem cells is likely 3-5 years away, securing IP and process know-how now ensures Junda remains relevant in the long term. It prevents technological disruption from catching the company off guard.
Synthesis of Tech Strategy:
Junda’s dual-track approach—milking the cash cow (TOPCon) via cost/efficiency optimization while planting seeds for the future (TBC/Tandem)—is prudent. It ensures current profitability (or minimized losses) while safeguarding future market share. In an industry where technology obsolescence is a constant threat, this R&D intensity is a key moat.
4. Valuation and Investment Logic
Valuation Analysis:
Based on the closing price of CNY 47.36 on August 26, 2025, Junda Shares’ valuation metrics reflect the market’s anticipation of a cyclical turnaround.
- P/E Ratio: Given the expected losses in 2024 and 2025, the P/E ratio is not meaningful for these years. However, looking forward:
- 2026E P/E: 19x. This multiple is reasonable for a growth-stage manufacturing company emerging from a downturn, especially considering the projected 276% profit growth.
- 2027E P/E: 9x. This represents a significant discount to historical averages for leading PV companies during growth phases, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its long-term earnings potential.
- P/B Ratio:
- 2025E P/B: 2.9x
- 2026E P/B: 2.5x
- 2027E P/B: 2.0x
The declining P/B ratio alongside rising book value (due to retained earnings/profitability) indicates that the market is gradually recognizing the intrinsic value accumulation in the company. A 2.0x P/B in 2027 is attractive for a tech-led manufacturer with high ROE prospects (22.3%).
- EV/EBITDA:
- 2026E EV/EBITDA: 10.46x
- 2027E EV/EBITDA: 7.03x
These multiples are compelling compared to global peers in the renewable energy equipment sector, offering a margin of safety for investors.
Investment Logic:
1. Cycle Bottoming: The PV industry is undergoing a painful supply-side clearing. Weak players are exiting, and capacity expansion has slowed. Junda, with its strong balance sheet (post-HKEX listing) and cost leadership, is well-positioned to survive this winter and emerge stronger. The projected return to profit in 2026 aligns with the expected industry equilibrium.
2. Globalization Alpha: Junda’s ability to shift >50% of sales overseas is a unique differentiator. Most Chinese PV peers are still heavily reliant on the domestic market or face significant trade barriers in the US/EU. Junda’s proactive engagement in emerging markets (like Turkey) and diversification strategy provides a revenue stream that is less correlated with domestic price wars.
3. Tech Premium: As the industry transitions from P-type to N-type, and eventually to BC/Tandem, leaders in efficiency will command a premium. Junda’s proven track record in TOPCon optimization and promising results in TBC/Tandem suggest it will retain its status as a premium supplier, avoiding commoditization.
4. Operational Leverage: With fixed costs largely covered, any increase in utilization rates and ASPs in 2026-2027 will flow disproportionately to the bottom line. Our model shows net margin expanding from -4.97% in 2025E to 10.73% in 2027E, demonstrating significant operating leverage.
Risks / Headwinds
While the outlook is positive, investors must consider the following risks that could impede Junda’s recovery and growth trajectory:
1. Downstream Demand Uncertainty
- Global Macro Factors: Economic slowdowns in key markets (Europe, US, China) could lead to reduced investment in renewable energy projects. High interest rates in Western economies continue to dampen the internal rate of return (IRR) for solar projects, potentially delaying installations.
- Policy Changes: The PV industry is heavily policy-driven. Any rollback in subsidies, tax credits (e.g., changes to the US Inflation Reduction Act implementation), or renewable energy targets in major markets could sharply reduce demand.
- Grid Congestion: In many mature markets, grid infrastructure bottlenecks are preventing new solar capacity from being connected. If grid upgrades do not keep pace with installation rates, curtailment risks rise, discouraging further deployment.
2. Intensified Market Competition
- Price Wars: Despite supply clearing, if major integrated players (who produce wafers, cells, and modules) decide to utilize their captive cell capacity aggressively, they could flood the merchant cell market, driving prices below cash cost for specialized manufacturers like Junda.
- Technological Disruption: If competitors achieve faster commercialization of HJT (Heterojunction) or BC (Back Contact) technologies with lower costs, Junda’s TOPCon assets could face premature stranding. While Junda is researching TBC, the speed of industry-wide adoption is unpredictable.
- New Entrants: Although barriers are high, state-backed entities or large conglomerates entering the cell manufacturing space could distort market dynamics with non-commercial pricing strategies.
3. Capacity Construction and Execution Risks
- Overseas Project Delays: Building factories in foreign jurisdictions (e.g., Turkey) involves regulatory hurdles, labor issues, supply chain logistics, and cultural challenges. Delays in the Turkey project or other overseas initiatives could defer revenue growth and increase CAPEX overrun risks.
- R&D Commercialization Failure: While lab efficiencies for TBC and Perovskite are high, scaling these to mass production with high yield rates is technically difficult. Failure to commercialize these technologies efficiently could erode Junda’s long-term competitive edge.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Dependence on specific raw materials (silver paste, specialized chemicals) or equipment suppliers creates vulnerability. Geopolitical tensions or trade restrictions on equipment exports to certain regions could hinder capacity expansion.
4. Financial and Currency Risks
- Exchange Rate Volatility: With >50% of revenue coming from overseas, Junda is exposed to FX fluctuations. A strengthening CNY against the USD, EUR, or local currencies of emerging markets could negatively impact reported revenues and margins if not properly hedged.
- Interest Rates: Although the HKEX listing improved liquidity, Junda still carries debt. Higher global interest rates could increase financing costs for overseas projects and working capital.
- Asset Impairment: Rapid technological change or prolonged low prices could necessitate further write-downs of existing inventory or fixed assets, impacting short-term earnings.
Rating / Sector Outlook
Sector Outlook: Photovoltaic Manufacturing
The global photovoltaic sector is currently in a phase of consolidation and technological transition.
* Supply Side: The era of blind capacity expansion is ending. Policy interventions in China and market forces globally are forcing inefficient capacity to exit. We expect the supply-demand imbalance to ease significantly by late 2025/early 2026.
* Demand Side: Long-term demand drivers remain intact. The global energy transition, electrification of transport/industry, and AI-driven power demand growth support a secular upward trend in solar installations. Emerging markets (Middle East, Southeast Asia, Latin America) are becoming the new growth engines, complementing traditional markets in Europe and China.
* Technology: N-type TOPCon is the current king, but the window for differentiation is narrowing. The next battleground is BC (Back Contact) and Tandem technologies. Companies that can manage the transition while maintaining cash flow will win.
* Trade Environment: Protectionism is rising. The ability to navigate trade barriers through local manufacturing (like Junda’s Turkey deal) or diversified export markets is becoming a critical success factor, arguably more important than pure cost leadership in China.
Company Rating: Recommend (Maintained)
We maintain our "Recommend" rating for Junda Shares.
* Relative Performance: We expect Junda to outperform the broader PV sector index due to its superior overseas exposure and specialized focus. While integrated giants struggle with inventory across the whole value chain, Junda’s agility in the cell segment allows for quicker adjustments.
* Catalysts:
1. Quarterly Profitability Improvement: Evidence of narrowing losses in 2H 2025 and return to profit in 1Q/2Q 2026.
2. Overseas Capacity Milestones: Progress updates on the Turkey project and any new overseas partnerships.
3. Tech Breakthroughs: Announcement of TBC mass-production efficiency records or perovskite tandem stability milestones.
4. Industry Price Stabilization: Signs of ASP stabilization or increase in the global cell market.
Investment View
Core Investment Thesis
Junda Shares represents a high-conviction play on the globalization and technological upgrading of the Chinese PV supply chain. The company is successfully transforming from a domestic-centric manufacturer to a global player, mitigating country-specific risks and capturing higher value pools. Its disciplined approach to cost reduction in TOPCon ensures survival in the current downturn, while its aggressive R&D in TBC and Perovskite secures its relevance in the next decade.
Strategic Recommendations for Institutional Investors
- Accumulate on Weakness: Given the cyclical nature of the stock and the current loss-making phase, volatility is expected. Investors should view dips caused by short-term macro news or sector-wide sentiment shifts as buying opportunities, focusing on the 2026-2027 earnings recovery story.
- Monitor Overseas Mix: Keep a close watch on the quarterly breakdown of domestic vs. overseas revenue. Sustaining the >50% overseas mix is crucial for margin recovery. Any significant drop in this metric should be viewed as a negative signal.
- Track R&D Conversion: Pay attention to the transition of TBC from pilot to mass production. Successful commercialization will be a key re-rating catalyst, potentially expanding Junda’s addressable market to the premium residential/commercial segment.
- Hedge FX Exposure: Investors holding Junda shares should be aware of CNY/USD dynamics. A weakening CNY generally benefits exporters like Junda, while a strengthening CNY acts as a headwind.
Conclusion
Junda Shares is navigating one of the most challenging periods in the PV industry’s history with strategic clarity and operational discipline. The combination of a strengthened balance sheet (via HKEX listing), a diversified global sales footprint, and a robust technology roadmap positions the company to emerge as a leader in the post-consolidation landscape. While near-term financials remain under pressure, the medium-to-long-term outlook is highly favorable. We believe the market has not fully priced in the magnitude of the 2026-2027 earnings recovery and the strategic value of Junda’s global assets. Therefore, we maintain our Recommend rating, targeting a gradual re-rating as profitability returns.
Appendix: Detailed Financial Analysis & Forecasts
Income Statement Analysis (CNY Million)
| Item | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | CAGR (25-27) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 9,952 | 8,113 | 12,167 | 14,191 | 32.3% |
| Cost of Goods Sold | 9,880 | 7,802 | 10,735 | 11,982 | |
| Gross Profit | 72 | 311 | 1,432 | 2,209 | |
| Operating Expenses | 565 | 467 | 651 | 717 | |
| - Selling Exp | 63 | 37 | 55 | 64 | |
| - Admin Exp | 303 | 268 | 377 | 426 | |
| - R&D Exp | 199 | 162 | 219 | 227 | |
| EBIT | -558 | -216 | 704 | 1,403 | |
| Net Profit | -591 | -403 | 712 | 1,522 |
Analysis:
* Revenue Recovery: The projected 50% revenue growth in 2026 is driven by both volume increases (new overseas capacity coming online) and price stabilization.
* Expense Control: Operating expenses are managed tightly. Selling expenses drop in 2025E due to efficiency gains, then rise slightly in 2026-27 to support global expansion. R&D spending remains robust, reflecting the commitment to innovation.
* Profit Swing: The swing from EBIT of -216 Mn in 2025E to +704 Mn in 2026E highlights the high operating leverage inherent in the manufacturing model once breakeven is passed.
Balance Sheet Health (CNY Million)
| Item | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 3,536 | 3,517 | 4,617 | 5,900 |
| Total Assets | 16,459 | 18,380 | 20,422 | 22,373 |
| Total Liabilities | 12,572 | 13,646 | 14,976 | 15,548 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 3,887 | 4,734 | 5,446 | 6,826 |
| Debt-to-Asset Ratio | 76.38% | 74.24% | 73.33% | 69.49% |
Analysis:
* Liquidity: Cash reserves remain healthy, supported by the HKEX IPO proceeds. This provides a buffer against operational cash burn in 2025.
* Leverage: The debt-to-asset ratio is gradually declining from 76.38% in 2024 to 69.49% in 2027. This deleveraging is driven by profit retention and equity infusion, improving financial stability.
* Asset Growth: Total assets grow steadily, reflecting CAPEX investments in overseas facilities and R&D centers.
Cash Flow Dynamics (CNY Million)
| Item | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 654 | 556 | 2,180 | 2,373 |
| Investing Cash Flow | -867 | -2,978 | -822 | -690 |
| Financing Cash Flow | 176 | 2,402 | -258 | -401 |
| Net Cash Flow | -34 | -19 | 1,100 | 1,282 |
Analysis:
* Operating Cash Flow: Positive OCF in 2024 and 2025E despite net losses indicates strong working capital management and non-cash charges (depreciation/amortization). OCF surges in 2026E as profitability returns.
* Investing Cash Flow: Significant negative investing cash flow in 2025E (-2,978 Mn) reflects heavy CAPEX for overseas expansion and R&D. This tapers down in 2026-27 as major construction phases complete.
* Financing Cash Flow: The large positive financing cash flow in 2025E (+2,402 Mn) is primarily due to the HKEX IPO proceeds and debt financing for expansion. In 2026-27, the company begins to repay debt and potentially initiate dividends (see Dividend Yield projections), leading to negative financing cash flow.
Key Operational Metrics Forecast
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory Turnover Days | 23.31 | 20.12 | 13.01 | 14.77 |
| AR Turnover Days | 0.69 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.76 |
| Total Asset Turnover | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
Analysis:
* Efficiency Improvement: Inventory turnover days are projected to improve significantly in 2026 (13.01 days), indicating better demand-supply matching and reduced risk of obsolete inventory. This is critical for a technology-driven industry.
* Asset Utilization: Total asset turnover dips in 2025 due to the denominator effect (new assets from IPO/CAPEX not yet fully productive) but recovers in 2026-27 as revenue scales up.
Final Remarks
Junda Shares stands at a pivotal juncture. The short-term financial pain is real and reflected in the 25H1 results. However, the strategic moves undertaken—global diversification, technological deepening, and capital strengthening—are laying the foundation for a robust comeback. For institutional investors with a 2-3 year horizon, Junda offers a compelling opportunity to participate in the inevitable consolidation and recovery of the global solar industry, backed by a management team that has demonstrated adaptability and foresight.
We reiterate our Recommend rating, with a target price implied by our 2026E earnings estimates and a 19x P/E multiple, suggesting significant upside potential from current levels as the market begins to price in the 2026 turnaround.
Disclaimer:
This report is prepared by Minsheng Securities Institute for institutional investors only. It is based on information believed to be reliable but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions and estimates contained herein reflect the judgment of the analysts as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. Minsheng Securities and its affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned and may provide investment banking services to the company.