Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316.SZ): Navigating the Photovoltaic Downturn; Strategic Pivot to Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Validates Long-Term Thesis
Date: August 26, 2025
Rating: BUY (Maintained)
Current Price: CNY 29.95
Target Price: Implied Upside based on Sector Re-rating and Growth Recovery
Analyst: Zhou Ershuang, Li Wenyi | Dongwu Securities Research Institute
Executive Summary
Jingsheng Electromechanical (hereinafter referred to as "Jingsheng" or the "Company"), a global leader in crystal growth equipment and materials, reported its interim results for the first half of 2025 (1H25). The report reflects a period of significant transitional pressure, primarily driven by the cyclical downturn in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, which has led to delayed equipment acceptance and compressed margins. In 1H25, the Company recorded revenue of CNY 5.80 billion, a year-over-year (YoY) decline of 42.9%, and attributable net profit of CNY 640 million, a YoY decline of 69.5%. The second quarter (2Q25) witnessed an acceleration in this downward trend, with revenue falling 52.8% YoY and net profit plunging 93.6% YoY, impacted by rigid cost structures, a reduction in government subsidies, and increased asset impairment provisions.
Despite the near-term headwinds in the PV segment, our investment thesis remains anchored in the Company’s successful strategic diversification into the semiconductor sector. Jingsheng is rapidly evolving from a pure-play PV equipment supplier into a comprehensive platform for semiconductor manufacturing solutions, covering large silicon wafers, advanced packaging, advanced process nodes, and Silicon Carbide (SiC) materials. The Company has secured over CNY 3.7 billion in outstanding contracts for integrated circuit (IC) and compound semiconductor equipment, providing a robust backlog that insulates future revenue streams from PV volatility. Furthermore, the acceleration of SiC substrate capacity—targeting 900,000 wafers annually—and breakthroughs in optical-grade SiC for AR applications position Jingsheng at the forefront of the next-generation semiconductor material supply chain.
We have adjusted our earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards to reflect the slower-than-expected revenue recognition in the PV segment and margin compression. We now estimate attributable net profits of CNY 1.01 billion, CNY 1.25 billion, and CNY 1.54 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. However, given the Company’s dominant market position, strong cash flow generation, and high-growth potential in semiconductor equipment and materials, we maintain our BUY rating. We believe the current valuation adequately prices in the PV cycle trough, while offering asymmetric upside from the semiconductor business ramp-up.
Key Takeaways
1. Financial Performance: Cyclical Trough Deepens in 2Q25
The financial results for 1H25 and particularly 2Q25 underscore the severity of the ongoing correction in the global photovoltaic industry. As downstream PV manufacturers face inventory adjustments and profitability pressures, capital expenditure (CapEx) has slowed, and the acceptance of delivered equipment has been deferred. This has directly impacted Jingsheng’s top-line growth and bottom-line profitability.
Revenue and Profit Analysis
- 1H25 Overview: Total revenue stood at CNY 5.80 billion, down 42.9% YoY. The equipment and services segment, which constitutes the majority of the business, generated CNY 4.08 billion (down 44.6% YoY), accounting for 69.2% of total revenue. The materials segment contributed CNY 1.23 billion (down 48.2% YoY), representing 20.8% of revenue. Attributable net profit was CNY 640 million, a sharp 69.5% decline YoY.
- 2Q25 Acceleration of Decline: The second quarter showed a marked deterioration compared to the first quarter. Q2 revenue was CNY 2.66 billion, down 52.8% YoY and 15.2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). More critically, Q2 attributable net profit collapsed to CNY 70 million, a 93.6% YoY decline.
- Drivers of Profit Compression: The drastic drop in Q2 net profit was not solely due to revenue contraction. It was exacerbated by three key factors:
- Rigid Cost Structure: While revenue fell sharply, fixed operational expenses remained relatively stable, leading to significant operating leverage working against the Company.
- Reduced Government Subsidies: Non-operating income from government grants decreased by approximately CNY 100 million QoQ.
- Asset Impairment: The Company recognized approximately CNY 100 million in asset impairment losses, likely related to inventory write-downs or receivables in the stressed PV sector.
Margin Pressure and Expense Dynamics
Profitability metrics have deteriorated significantly, reflecting both pricing pressure in the PV equipment market and the high cost base of new semiconductor initiatives.
- Gross Margin Contraction: The consolidated gross margin for 1H25 was 24.4%, a substantial decline of 12.6 percentage points (pct) YoY.
- Equipment & Services: Gross margin fell to 32.9% (-4.5 pct YoY). This indicates competitive pricing pressures and potentially lower utilization rates in manufacturing.
- Materials: Gross margin plummeted to 6.22% (-33.9 pct YoY). This severe compression suggests that material sales (likely PV-related crystals or components) are being sold at near-cost or below-cost levels to clear inventory or maintain market share in a depressed market.
- Q2 Specifics: The situation worsened in Q2, with gross margin dropping to 20.6% (-11.2 pct YoY, -6.9 pct QoQ). Net profit margin for Q2 was a mere 2.3%, down 16.2 pct YoY and 15.5 pct QoQ.
- Expense Ratio Expansion: The period expense ratio increased to 13.0% in 1H25 (+4.2 pct YoY).
- R&D Intensity: R&D expense ratio rose to 8.0% (+2.0 pct YoY). This is a critical positive signal, indicating that despite profit pressure, Jingsheng is continuing to invest heavily in innovation, particularly in semiconductor technologies. This counter-cyclical R&D spending is essential for maintaining its technological moat.
- Administrative & Sales: Administrative expense ratio increased to 4.0% (+1.6 pct YoY), while sales expense ratio remained low at 0.7% (+0.2 pct YoY). The rise in administrative costs may be linked to the scaling of new business units and international operations.
| Financial Metric | 1H2024 | 1H2025 | YoY Change | 2Q2024 | 2Q2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (CNY Mn) | ~10,157* | 5,800 | -42.9% | ~5,635* | 2,660 | -52.8% |
| Net Profit (CNY Mn) | ~2,100* | 640 | -69.5% | ~1,050* | 70 | -93.6% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 37.0% | 24.4% | -12.6 pct | 31.8% | 20.6% | -11.2 pct |
| Net Margin (%) | 20.7% | 10.7% | -10.0 pct | 18.5% | 2.3% | -16.2 pct |
| R&D Expense Ratio (%) | 6.0% | 8.0% | +2.0 pct | N/A | N/A | N/A |
*Note: 1H24 and 2Q24 figures derived from reported YoY changes and 1H25/2Q25 actuals for illustrative comparison.
2. Balance Sheet Health: Cash Flow Resilience Amidst Order Book Normalization
While the income statement reflects cyclical pain, the balance sheet and cash flow statement demonstrate the Company’s financial resilience and strong working capital management.
- Contract Liabilities and Inventory:
- Contract Liabilities: As of the end of 2Q25, contract liabilities (advance payments from customers) stood at CNY 3.17 billion, a decline of 62.1% YoY. This significant drop confirms the slowdown in new order intake and the conversion of previous advances into revenue (or refunds/cancellations, though less likely given the nature of custom equipment). It serves as a leading indicator that revenue headwinds may persist in the near term until new orders pick up.
- Inventory: Inventory levels were CNY 8.95 billion, down 35.0% YoY. The reduction in inventory is a positive sign of active destocking and improved supply chain efficiency, reducing the risk of future large-scale impairments.
- Cash Flow Strength:
- Operating Cash Flow (OCF): In 1H25, net operating cash flow was CNY 450 million, a robust increase of 55.8% YoY. This divergence between declining net profit and rising OCF highlights the Company’s strong collection capabilities and disciplined working capital management. It suggests that while accounting profits are hit by non-cash items (impairments, depreciation) and accruals, actual cash generation remains healthy.
- Semiconductor Backlog: A crucial buffer against the PV downturn is the strong order book in the semiconductor sector. The Company has uncompleted contracts for IC and compound semiconductor equipment exceeding CNY 3.7 billion. This backlog provides visibility into future revenue and validates the market’s acceptance of Jingsheng’s semiconductor products.
3. Strategic Pivot: Semiconductor Equipment Platform Taking Shape
Jingsheng’s transformation into a semiconductor equipment platform is progressing across four key verticals: Large Silicon Wafers, Advanced Packaging, Advanced Process Nodes, and Silicon Carbide (SiC). This diversification is not merely incremental but represents a fundamental shift in the Company’s value proposition, moving from a cyclical commodity equipment provider to a high-tech, high-barrier semiconductor solutions partner.
A. Large Silicon Wafer Solutions
Jingsheng continues to solidify its position as a one-stop-shop for large silicon wafer manufacturing. The Company provides comprehensive solutions covering the entire value chain:
* Crystal Growth: Leveraging its core competency in single-crystal furnace technology.
* Slicing, Grinding, and Polishing: Integrated machinery for wafer processing.
This end-to-end capability allows Jingsheng to capture more value per fab expansion and offers customers a streamlined procurement and technical support experience, enhancing stickiness.
B. Advanced Packaging Equipment
As Moore’s Law slows, advanced packaging becomes critical for performance enhancement. Jingsheng has expanded its portfolio beyond traditional thinning machines:
* Ultra-Fast UV Laser Grooving Equipment: The launch of this new equipment addresses the growing demand for precise dicing and grooving in heterogeneous integration and 3D packaging. This product line opens up a new addressable market within the backend semiconductor process, complementing existing offerings.
C. Advanced Process Nodes
Breakthroughs in front-end processes mark a significant milestone in Jingsheng’s technological maturity:
* 12-Inch Silicon Reduced-Pressure Epitaxial Growth Equipment: The successful sales shipment of this equipment is a major validation. Epitaxial growth is a critical step in producing high-performance logic and memory chips. Breaking into this segment, dominated by international giants like ASM International and AIXTRON, demonstrates Jingsheng’s ability to meet the stringent quality and purity requirements of advanced logic fabs. This achievement significantly elevates the Company’s technical prestige and potential market share in the high-value front-end equipment sector.
D. Silicon Carbide (SiC) Equipment Ecosystem
Jingsheng has developed a comprehensive suite of SiC equipment, positioning itself as a key enabler of the third-generation semiconductor revolution:
* Core Process Equipment: The Company has developed 6-inch and 8-inch SiC crystal growth furnaces, slicing machines, thinning equipment, polishing machines, and epitaxial equipment. This full-line coverage allows SiC substrate manufacturers to rely on Jingsheng for their entire production line.
* Ion Implantation: The ion implantation prototype is currently in the debugging phase. Ion implantation is a complex and high-barrier process; successful commercialization here would further deepen Jingsheng’s moat.
* Commercialized Products: SiC oxidation/activation furnaces and optical inspection equipment have already achieved batch shipments. This indicates that these specific tools have passed customer qualification and are generating recurring revenue, providing a steady cash flow stream from the SiC segment.
4. Material Business: SiC Substrate Capacity Expansion and New Applications
Parallel to equipment, Jingsheng is aggressively expanding its SiC material business, targeting both conductive and semi-insulating (optical-grade) substrates. This vertical integration (selling both the "shovel" and the "gold") allows the Company to capture margins across the supply chain and accelerate product iteration through internal feedback loops.
Conductive Substrates: Scaling to 900,000 Wafers
- Current Capacity: The Company currently has a crystal pulling capacity of 300,000 wafers.
- Expansion Plan: A new facility for 600,000 units of 8-inch wafer crystal pulling capacity is under construction. Once completed, the total capacity will reach 900,000 wafers annually.
- International Footprint: In Malaysia, Jingsheng is planning an annual capacity of 240,000 wafers for slicing, grinding, and polishing. This geographic diversification mitigates geopolitical risks and serves international customers who prefer non-China supply chains.
- Market Implication: The shift towards 8-inch wafers is industry-wide, driven by the need for lower cost-per-chip in electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy inverters. By securing large-scale 8-inch capacity, Jingsheng positions itself to benefit from the impending volume ramp of 8-inch SiC devices.
Optical-Grade Substrates: The AR Gaming Catalyst
- Strategic Partnerships: Jingsheng has formed strategic alliances with leading Augmented Reality (AR) eyewear companies, including Longqi (associated with Zhejiang University), XREAL, and Kunyou Optoelectronics.
- Application: These partnerships focus on the development and supply of SiC substrates for AR glasses. SiC is increasingly favored for AR waveguides due to its high refractive index and transparency in certain wavelengths, offering superior optical performance compared to traditional glass or sapphire.
- Growth Potential: The consumer AR market is poised for exponential growth as technology matures. By securing early partnerships with key players, Jingsheng is positioning itself as a primary beneficiary of this nascent but high-potential market. This diversifies the Company’s reliance on industrial/EV applications and opens a high-margin consumer electronics avenue.
5. Subsidiary Spotlight: Jinghong Precision Components
Jinghong Precision, a subsidiary of Jingsheng, plays a critical yet often overlooked role in the Company’s ecosystem. Focusing on high-precision零部件 (components), Jinghong serves as a foundational pillar for both internal supply and external sales.
- Capabilities: The subsidiary possesses specialized capabilities in special welding, assembly testing, and semiconductor-grade surface treatment.
- Product Portfolio: Key products include vacuum chambers, precision transmission spindles, star wheels (planetary gears), ceramic disks, and other high-precision components.
- Customer Base: Jinghong has achieved batch shipments to leading domestic semiconductor equipment customers. This not only generates independent revenue but also strengthens Jingsheng’s relationships with other equipment makers, creating a broader industry network.
- Strategic Value: High-precision components are critical for the performance and yield of semiconductor equipment. By mastering this segment, Jingsheng ensures supply chain security for its own equipment business and captures value from the broader semiconductor capex cycle, even when customers buy competing equipment brands.
Risks / Headwinds
While the long-term trajectory is positive, investors must be cognizant of several near-to-medium-term risks that could impact financial performance and stock valuation.
1. Photovoltaic Industry Cycle Duration and Depth
- Risk: The PV industry is experiencing a severe oversupply situation, leading to prolonged periods of low profitability for manufacturers. If the industry consolidation takes longer than expected, or if global demand growth slows further, PV manufacturers may continue to defer or cancel equipment orders.
- Impact: This would lead to further delays in revenue recognition for Jingsheng’s PV equipment segment, continued margin compression, and potential additional asset impairments. The 62.1% drop in contract liabilities suggests that the order book replenishment in the PV sector is still weak.
2. Semiconductor Fab Expansion Pace
- Risk: The semiconductor industry is also cyclical. While the long-term trend is upward, short-term fluctuations in global macroeconomic conditions, trade restrictions, or inventory corrections could lead to slower-than-expected expansion by wafer fabs.
- Impact: If downstream fabs delay their CapEx plans, the conversion of Jingsheng’s CNY 3.7 billion semiconductor backlog into revenue could be delayed. Additionally, intense competition in the semiconductor equipment space could pressure pricing and margins as new entrants vie for market share.
3. New Product R&D and Industrialization Risks
- Risk: The semiconductor equipment industry is characterized by high technical barriers and long qualification cycles. There is inherent risk that new products (such as the ion implantation prototype or advanced epitaxial tools) may face technical hurdles, fail to meet customer yield requirements, or take longer to qualify than anticipated.
- Impact: Delays in industrialization would postpone revenue contributions from these high-margin products and increase R&D burn rate without corresponding income. Failure to achieve mass production yields in SiC substrates could also hinder the competitiveness of the material business.
4. Geopolitical and Trade Policy Uncertainties
- Risk: As Jingsheng expands its international footprint (e.g., Malaysia plant) and targets global semiconductor customers, it becomes more exposed to geopolitical tensions. Export controls, tariffs, or supply chain restrictions imposed by major economies could disrupt operations or limit market access.
- Impact: This could affect the sourcing of critical components, the ability to sell equipment to certain regions, or the viability of overseas manufacturing facilities.
5. Margin Volatility During Transition
- Risk: The transition from a high-margin PV-dominated business to a mixed PV-Semiconductor portfolio involves a period of margin instability. Semiconductor R&D and initial production ramp-ups are capital and cost-intensive.
- Impact: Investors should expect continued pressure on overall gross margins in the near term as the lower-margin PV business shrinks and the higher-cost semiconductor business scales. The realization of higher semiconductor margins may take longer than anticipated.
Rating / Sector Outlook
Investment Rating: BUY (Maintained)
We maintain our BUY rating on Jingsheng Electromechanical. While the near-term financials are undeniably weak due to the PV downturn, the stock price has largely reflected these headwinds. The current valuation offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors who recognize the Company’s successful pivot to the semiconductor sector.
- Valuation Context: At a current price of CNY 29.95, the stock trades at a P/E of approximately 39.6x based on our 2025 earnings estimate of CNY 0.77 EPS. While this appears elevated compared to historical PV equipment multiples, it is justified by the higher quality and growth potential of the semiconductor business. Looking ahead to 2026 and 2027, the P/E compresses to 32.0x and 25.9x respectively, as earnings recover.
- Peer Comparison: Compared to pure-play semiconductor equipment peers, Jingsheng offers a diversified risk profile with a cash-generative legacy business. Compared to pure-play PV equipment peers, it offers superior growth visibility through semiconductor exposure.
Sector Outlook: Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
The global semiconductor equipment and materials sector is entering a phase of structural growth driven by:
1. AI and HPC Demand: Surging demand for AI chips is driving investments in advanced packaging and high-performance substrates.
2. Third-Generation Semiconductors: The electrification of transport and energy infrastructure is accelerating the adoption of SiC and GaN, creating a multi-year boom for SiC substrate and equipment suppliers.
3. Localization Trends: In China, the push for semiconductor self-sufficiency continues to provide a favorable policy environment and guaranteed demand for domestic equipment suppliers like Jingsheng.
Jingsheng is well-positioned to capitalize on all three trends. Its broad product portfolio allows it to participate in multiple growth vectors, reducing dependency on any single market segment.
Investment View
Core Investment Logic
Our bullish stance on Jingsheng Electromechanical is built on three pillars: Resilience, Diversification, and Innovation.
-
Resilience Through Cash Flow and Backlog:
Despite the profit slump, the Company’s ability to generate positive operating cash flow (CNY 450 million in 1H25) demonstrates strong financial health. The CNY 3.7 billion semiconductor equipment backlog provides a visible revenue runway that decouples the Company’s immediate future from the volatile PV spot market. This financial cushion allows Jingsheng to sustain R&D investments and navigate the downturn without compromising its long-term competitive position. -
Successful Diversification into High-Barrier Semiconductor Markets:
Jingsheng is no longer just a PV equipment company. It has successfully penetrated the most challenging segments of the semiconductor supply chain:- Front-End: 12-inch epitaxial tools.
- Back-End: Advanced packaging laser grooving.
- Materials: 8-inch SiC substrates and optical-grade SiC for AR.
This diversification transforms the Company’s earnings profile from highly cyclical to structurally growing. As the semiconductor portion of revenue grows, overall margins and valuation multiples should expand.
-
Innovation-Led Growth in Next-Gen Technologies:
The Company’s heavy R&D investment (8.0% of revenue in 1H25) is yielding tangible results. The development of ion implantation prototypes, ultra-fast laser equipment, and optical-grade SiC substrates places Jingsheng at the cutting edge of industry trends. Specifically, the partnership with AR leaders like XREAL and Longqi positions the Company to benefit from the anticipated consumer AR boom, a potential "blue ocean" market with high margins.
Earnings Forecast and Valuation Adjustment
We have revised our earnings estimates to align with the slower revenue recognition pace and margin pressures observed in 1H25.
| Year | Previous Estimate (Net Profit CNY Mn) | New Estimate (Net Profit CNY Mn) | YoY Growth (%) | EPS (CNY) | P/E (Current Price) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025E | 2,000 | 1,007 | -59.89% | 0.77 | 39.64 |
| 2026E | 2,200 | 1,247 | +23.88% | 0.95 | 32.00 |
| 2027E | 2,700 | 1,538 | +23.37% | 1.17 | 25.94 |
- 2025 Adjustment: The significant downgrade for 2025 reflects the reality of the PV acceptance delays and the one-time impacts of impairments and subsidy reductions in Q2. We anticipate the second half of 2025 to remain challenging, with recovery likely starting in late 2025 or early 2026.
- 2026-2027 Recovery: We project a steady recovery in 2026 and 2027, driven by the recognition of the semiconductor backlog, the ramp-up of new SiC capacity, and a eventual stabilization of the PV market. The projected 23-24% annual growth in net profit during these years reflects the higher growth trajectory of the semiconductor business.
Strategic Implications for Investors
- Look Beyond the Headline Numbers: The 69.5% drop in net profit is alarming but largely backward-looking and cyclical. Investors should focus on the leading indicators: the semiconductor order backlog, the progress in 8-inch SiC capacity, and the strong operating cash flow.
- Monitor Semiconductor Revenue Mix: A key metric to watch in upcoming quarters is the percentage of revenue derived from semiconductor equipment and materials. An increasing mix will signal the success of the transformation and should lead to a re-rating of the stock’s valuation multiple.
- AR Market Catalyst: Keep a close eye on developments in the AR sector. Any major product launches by partners like XREAL or Longqi that utilize Jingsheng’s optical-grade SiC substrates could serve as a significant positive catalyst, highlighting the Company’s exposure to high-growth consumer tech.
- Long-Term Hold: Given the current valuation and the long lead times for semiconductor equipment qualification and capacity ramp-up, Jingsheng is best suited for long-term investors. Short-term volatility may persist as the PV market bottoms out, but the long-term compound growth story remains intact.
Conclusion
Jingsheng Electromechanical is navigating a difficult transitional period. The pain from the PV downturn is real and reflected in the 1H25 financials. However, the Company is using this time to fortify its position in the semiconductor industry, a sector with higher barriers to entry and stronger long-term growth prospects. With a robust semiconductor backlog, expanding SiC capacity, and breakthroughs in advanced equipment, Jingsheng is well-equipped to emerge from this cycle stronger and more diversified. We believe the market has overly penalized the stock for short-term PV weaknesses, ignoring the substantial value being created in its semiconductor businesses. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating, viewing the current price as an attractive opportunity to accumulate shares in a future semiconductor materials and equipment leader.
Appendix: Detailed Financial Analysis & Data Tables
1. Income Statement Analysis (Annual & Forecast)
The following table outlines the historical performance and our revised forecasts. Note the significant contraction in 2025 followed by a gradual recovery.
| Item (CNY Million) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 17,983 | 17,577 | 12,034 | 13,082 | 14,797 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 69.04% | -2.26% | -31.53% | 8.71% | 13.11% |
| Cost of Revenue | 10,650 | 11,714 | 9,051 | 9,761 | 10,798 |
| Gross Profit | 7,333 | 5,863 | 2,983 | 3,321 | 3,999 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 40.78% | 33.35% | 24.79% | 25.39% | 27.02% |
| Operating Expenses | |||||
| - Sales Expenses | 68 | 85 | 78 | 78 | 89 |
| - Admin Expenses | 312 | 521 | 433 | 432 | 488 |
| - R&D Expenses | 890 | 1,119 | 782 | 850 | 1,036 |
| - Finance Costs | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Items | |||||
| - Other Income | 180 | 253 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| - Impairment Losses | (500) | (1,207) | (260) | (215) | (200) |
| Operating Profit | 4,500 | 3,081 | 1,393 | 1,706 | 2,105 |
| Net Profit | 4,400 | 2,664 | 1,184 | 1,467 | 1,810 |
| Minority Interest | 158 | 155 | 178 | 220 | 271 |
| Attributable Net Profit | 4,558 | 2,510 | 1,007 | 1,247 | 1,538 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 55.85% | -44.93% | -59.89% | 23.88% | 23.37% |
| EPS (Diluted) | 3.48 | 1.92 | 0.77 | 0.95 | 1.17 |
Analysis:
* Revenue Cliff: The 31.5% drop in 2025E revenue is the most significant feature, reflecting the PV downturn.
* Margin Bottoming: Gross margin is expected to bottom in 2025 at 24.79% before recovering to 27.02% by 2027 as the higher-margin semiconductor mix increases.
* Impairment Normalization: The massive CNY 1.2 billion impairment in 2024 is not repeated. We forecast a normalized impairment level of CNY 200-260 million annually, reflecting standard prudent accounting rather than crisis-level write-downs.
* R&D Efficiency: R&D spend decreases in absolute terms in 2025E (CNY 782 million vs CNY 1,119 million in 2024) but remains high as a percentage of sales. This suggests a focus on completing key projects rather than broad-based exploration, aiming for faster commercialization.
2. Balance Sheet Analysis
| Item (CNY Million) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Assets | 21,143 | 21,323 | 23,610 | 26,936 |
| - Cash & Equivalents | 3,461 | 7,708 | 9,396 | 11,421 |
| - Receivables | 5,820 | 2,538 | 2,804 | 3,187 |
| - Inventory | 10,884 | 9,819 | 10,072 | 10,861 |
| Non-Current Assets | 10,408 | 10,135 | 9,829 | 9,477 |
| - Fixed Assets | 5,575 | 5,255 | 4,883 | 4,464 |
| Total Assets | 31,550 | 31,458 | 33,439 | 36,413 |
| Current Liabilities | 12,126 | 10,545 | 10,853 | 11,913 |
| - Contract Liabilities | 5,624 | 4,346 | 4,686 | 5,184 |
| Non-Current Liab. | 1,490 | 1,795 | 2,000 | 2,105 |
| Total Liabilities | 13,616 | 12,340 | 12,853 | 14,018 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 17,934 | 19,118 | 20,585 | 22,395 |
Analysis:
* Cash Build-up: Cash and equivalents are projected to more than double from 2024 to 2025 (CNY 3.46bn to CNY 7.71bn). This is driven by the strong operating cash flow and reduced CapEx intensity as major PV expansions slow. This cash pile provides ample liquidity for R&D, potential M&A, or dividend payouts.
* Inventory Management: Inventory is forecast to remain stable around CNY 9.8-10.8 billion. This indicates a balanced approach to maintaining stock for semiconductor orders while avoiding excess PV inventory.
* Debt Levels: The Company maintains a conservative debt profile. The slight increase in non-current liabilities is manageable given the strong equity base. The Debt-to-Asset ratio remains healthy, below 40%.
3. Cash Flow Statement Analysis
| Item (CNY Million) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,773 | 5,156 | 1,992 | 2,418 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (2,176) | (505) | (508) | (498) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (655) | (404) | 205 | 105 |
| Net Cash Increase | (1,057) | 4,247 | 1,689 | 2,025 |
| CapEx | (1,627) | (400) | (400) | (400) |
Analysis:
* OCF Surge in 2025: The forecasted OCF of CNY 5.15 billion in 2025 is exceptionally strong. This is primarily due to the collection of receivables and the reduction in inventory buildup. It confirms that the Company is in a "cash harvest" phase from previous cycles, even as new sales slow.
* Reduced CapEx: Capital expenditure drops significantly from CNY 1.6 billion in 2024 to CNY 400 million in 2025-2027. This reflects the completion of major capacity expansions (like the SiC bases) and a more cautious approach to new PV capacity. This free cash flow positivity enhances shareholder value potential.
4. Key Valuation Metrics
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (Current Price) | 15.90 | 39.64 | 32.00 | 25.94 |
| P/B (Current Price) | 2.40 | 2.26 | 2.11 | 1.95 |
| ROE (Diluted %) | 15.10% | 5.71% | 6.61% | 7.54% |
| ROIC (%) | 13.91% | 6.83% | 7.58% | 8.40% |
| Debt-to-Asset (%) | 43.16% | 39.23% | 38.44% | 38.50% |
Analysis:
* P/E Expansion: The P/E ratio expands in 2025 due to the drop in earnings denominator. However, it contracts steadily in 2026 and 2027 as earnings recover. A 25-32x P/E is reasonable for a company with semiconductor growth characteristics.
* ROE Dip and Recovery: ROE drops to 5.71% in 2025 due to lower net income but recovers to 7.54% by 2027. While lower than the 15% seen in 2024, this is typical for capital-intensive equipment companies during transition phases.
* P/B Stability: The Price-to-Book ratio remains stable around 2.0-2.4x, indicating that the market values the Company’s asset base and franchise value consistently, despite earnings volatility.
Final Remarks
Jingsheng Electromechanical stands at a pivotal juncture. The short-term pain from the PV cycle is undeniable and has been fully reflected in the 1H25 results. However, the Company’s strategic foresight in diversifying into semiconductor equipment and materials is now bearing fruit, evidenced by the substantial backlog and technological breakthroughs. For institutional investors, the current weakness offers a compelling entry point to acquire a stake in a company that is transitioning from a cyclical PV supplier to a structural growth player in the semiconductor industry. We recommend accumulating positions on dips, with a long-term horizon to capture the full value of the semiconductor transformation.
Disclaimer:
This report is prepared by Dongwu Securities Research Institute for institutional clients only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Dongwu Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Investors should make their own independent decisions and seek professional advice if necessary. Past performance is not indicative of future results.