Research report

Performance meets expectations; seize opportunities in N-type technology upgrades

Published 2025-08-27 · Sinolink Securities · Yao Yao
Source: 688726_19119.html

Performance meets expectations; seize opportunities in N-type technology upgrades

688726.SHBuyPhotovoltaic Equipment
Date2025-08-27
InstitutionSinolink Securities
AnalystsYao Yao
RatingBuy
IndustryPhotovoltaic Equipment
StockLaplace (688726)
Report typeStock

Laplace Research: Navigating the N-Type Transition with Robust Fundamentals and Diversified Growth Engines

Date: August 26, 2025
Subject: 1H 2025 Earnings Review & Strategic Outlook
Ticker: Laplace (Unlisted/Specific Exchange Context Implied)
Current Price: CNY 49.79
Rating: BUY
Analyst: Yao Yao (S1130512080001)


Executive Summary

Laplace, a leading provider of core process equipment and solutions for high-efficiency photovoltaic (PV) cells, released its semi-annual report for 2025 on August 26, 2025. The company delivered a performance that largely aligned with market expectations, demonstrating resilience amidst a rapidly evolving technological landscape in the solar industry. In the first half of 2025 (1H25), Laplace reported total operating revenue of CNY 3.062 billion, representing a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 20.49%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reached CNY 397 million, up 12.94% YoY.

While the top-line growth remains robust, driven by the steady delivery and acceptance of products across TOPCon and XBC technology routes, the second quarter (Q2) exhibited some sequential pressure. Q2 revenue stood at CNY 1.611 billion (+8.98% YoY, +11.03% Quarter-over-Quarter [QoQ]), while net profit was CNY 145 million (-18.06% YoY, -42.46% QoQ). This sequential decline in profitability is attributed to typical seasonal fluctuations in project acceptance cycles and increased R&D expenditures aimed at securing long-term technological leadership, rather than structural deterioration in business fundamentals.

The core investment thesis for Laplace rests on three pillars:
1. Technological Leadership in N-Type Iteration: The company is deeply entrenched in the transition from P-type to N-type cell technologies, specifically TOPCon and XBC. Its comprehensive portfolio covering thermal processing, coating, and automation equipment is seeing strong adoption as downstream manufacturers upgrade capacity to maintain efficiency competitiveness.
2. Diversification into Semiconductor Equipment: Laplace has successfully expanded into the semiconductor sector, achieving a significant margin expansion in this segment. The semiconductor equipment gross margin surged to 38.33% in 1H25 (up 19.79 percentage points YoY), driven by bulk orders for core process equipment such as ultra-high-temperature annealing furnaces for SiC-based devices. This creates a valuable second growth curve that mitigates reliance on the cyclical PV industry.
3. Financial Health and Global Expansion: The balance sheet has strengthened, with the asset-liability ratio decreasing to 62.36% (down 2.63 percentage points from year-end 2024). Concurrently, the company is actively pursuing overseas markets, aligning with downstream clients’ global expansion strategies and targeting demand in Southeast Asia, the US, and the Middle East.

We maintain our BUY rating on Laplace. Based on current order books and business progress, we project net profits of CNY 763 million, CNY 784 million, and CNY 854 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. This corresponds to Earnings Per Share (EPS) of CNY 1.88, CNY 1.93, and CNY 2.11. At the current price of CNY 49.79, the stock trades at forward P/E multiples of 26x, 26x, and 24x for the respective years. Given the company’s dominant position in N-type equipment, successful diversification into high-margin semiconductor tools, and improving financial structure, we believe the current valuation offers an attractive entry point for long-term institutional investors seeking exposure to the next generation of PV manufacturing technology.


Key Takeaways

1. Financial Performance: Steady Growth Amidst Quarterly Volatility

1.1 Half-Year Results Analysis

Laplace’s 1H25 financial results underscore the company’s ability to sustain growth despite the maturing phase of the previous PERC technology cycle and the capital-intensive transition to N-type technologies.

  • Revenue Growth: Total revenue of CNY 3.062 billion (+20.49% YoY) indicates strong demand for the company’s equipment suite. This growth is primarily driven by the widespread adoption of TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) technology and the emerging commercialization of XBC (Back Contact) technologies. The consistent double-digit growth suggests that Laplace is gaining market share or benefiting from the overall capacity expansion in high-efficiency segments.
  • Profitability Trends: Net profit of CNY 397 million (+12.94% YoY) grew at a slower pace than revenue. This divergence can be attributed to two main factors:
    1. Product Mix Shift: As the industry transitions, there may be temporary pricing pressures or higher costs associated with the deployment of new-generation equipment before economies of scale are fully realized.
    2. R&D Intensity: The company continues to invest heavily in next-generation technologies, which impacts short-term margins but secures long-term competitiveness.

1.2 Second Quarter (Q2) Dynamics

A granular look at Q2 2025 reveals important operational nuances:

Metric Q2 2025 Value YoY Change QoQ Change Interpretation
Revenue CNY 1.611 bn +8.98% +11.03% Continued top-line expansion; sequential growth indicates accelerating deliveries.
Net Profit CNY 145 mn -18.06% -42.46% Significant sequential drop. Likely due to timing of revenue recognition vs. fixed cost absorption, and potentially higher one-off R&D or administrative expenses in Q2.

Note: While the QoQ profit decline appears sharp, it is crucial to contextualize this within the project-based nature of equipment sales. Revenue recognition in capital equipment often lags behind cash collections or order bookings, and profit margins can fluctuate quarterly based on the specific mix of standard vs. customized equipment delivered.

1.3 Balance Sheet Strengthening

One of the most positive developments in 1H25 is the improvement in Laplace’s financial structure.

  • Asset-Liability Ratio: Declined to 62.36% as of June 30, 2025, down from 64.99% (implied from the 2.63 pct drop) at the end of 2024.
  • Implication: A lower leverage ratio enhances the company’s financial flexibility, allowing it to weather industry downturns more effectively and fund R&D without excessive reliance on external debt. It also reduces interest expense burdens, contributing to future net income stability.

2. Strategic Pillar I: Dominance in N-Type PV Equipment

The photovoltaic industry is currently undergoing a definitive technological shift from P-type PERC cells to N-type cells, primarily TOPCon and HJT (Heterojunction), with XBC gaining traction in premium segments. Laplace has positioned itself as a critical enabler of this transition.

2.1 Comprehensive Technology Coverage

Laplace’s product portfolio covers the entire value chain of N-type cell manufacturing, focusing on three key areas:
1. Thermal Processing: Including diffusion and annealing processes.
2. Coating/Deposition: Critical for passivation layers and contact formation.
3. Automation: Integrated solutions that enhance yield and reduce labor costs.

The company’s deep coverage of TOPCon and XBC routes is particularly strategic. TOPCon has become the mainstream choice for new capacity additions due to its compatibility with existing PERC lines and superior efficiency potential. XBC, while more complex, offers the highest theoretical efficiencies and is increasingly adopted by leading manufacturers for high-end modules.

2.2 R&D Investment and Technological Moat

In 1H25, Laplace invested CNY 161 million in R&D, accounting for 5.27% of total revenue. This sustained investment is not merely operational expenditure but a strategic imperative to build a "technological moat."

Key Areas of R&D Focus:

  • Diffusion Technologies: Optimization of Boron Diffusion and Phosphorus Diffusion equipment. These are critical for forming the emitter and back-surface field in N-type cells. Precision in doping profiles directly impacts cell efficiency.
  • Oxidation and Annealing: Enhancements in oxidation and annealing processes are vital for defect passivation and carrier lifetime improvement.
  • Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD):
    • LPCVD (Low-Pressure CVD): Used for polysilicon deposition in TOPCon structures.
    • PECVD (Plasma-Enhanced CVD): Essential for depositing silicon nitride and other dielectric layers.
    • Next-Gen CVD: Ongoing research into newer CVD platforms to improve throughput and uniformity.
  • Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD): ALD is crucial for creating ultra-thin, conformal tunneling oxide layers in TOPCon cells. Laplace’s continued promotion of ALD equipment in client facilities indicates strong market validation.
  • Emerging Equipment Breakthroughs:
    • EPD (Electrochemical Plating/Deposition) Equipment: Reported good progress. EPD is a potential low-cost alternative to screen printing for metallization, offering better aspect ratios and reduced silver consumption.
    • Laser Poly Thinning: A key process step in TOPCon manufacturing to reduce parasitic absorption and improve efficiency. Laplace’s advancements here suggest a competitive edge in process integration.
    • Laser Equipment: Broad application in patterning, ablation, and doping.
    • Magnetron Sputtering (PVD): Physical Vapor Deposition platforms for transparent conductive oxides (TCO) and metal contacts.
    • Perovskite Core Vacuum Process Equipment: Forward-looking research into tandem cell technologies (Perovskite/Silicon), positioning Laplace for the post-N-type era.
    • New Metallization Equipment: Exploring alternatives to traditional screen printing to reduce silver paste usage, a major cost driver in PV manufacturing.

2.3 Client Adoption and Market Validation

The report notes that products are "steadily achieving delivery and acceptance at client sites." In the capital equipment industry, acceptance is the key milestone for revenue recognition. The fact that Laplace is seeing continuous acceptance implies:
1. Technical Reliability: The equipment meets the stringent yield and efficiency targets of major PV manufacturers.
2. Service Capability: The company has the operational bandwidth to support commissioning and troubleshooting, which is critical for customer retention.
3. Repeat Orders: Successful acceptance typically leads to repeat orders for expansion phases, providing visibility into future revenue streams.

3. Strategic Pillar II: Semiconductor Equipment – A High-Margin Growth Engine

Perhaps the most compelling aspect of Laplace’s 1H25 performance is the rapid scaling and margin expansion of its semiconductor equipment business. This diversification strategy reduces the company’s beta to the highly cyclical PV industry and opens up a Total Addressable Market (TAM) with higher barriers to entry and stickier customer relationships.

3.1 Financial Impact of Semiconductor Segment

  • Gross Margin: The semiconductor equipment segment achieved a gross margin of 38.33% in 1H25.
  • Year-over-Year Improvement: This represents a staggering increase of 19.79 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
  • Analysis: Such a dramatic margin expansion suggests a shift from low-volume, high-cost prototype stages to volume production with standardized, high-value products. It indicates that Laplace has successfully crossed the chasm from "R&D novelty" to "commercial viability" in the semiconductor space.

3.2 Product Portfolio and Key Wins

Laplace is focusing on two primary sub-sectors within semiconductors:
1. Discrete Devices: Power semiconductors, diodes, transistors.
2. Integrated Circuits (IC): Specific process steps for logic and memory chips.

Core Equipment Offerings:
* Oxidation Furnaces: For growing silicon dioxide layers.
* Annealing Furnaces: For dopant activation and defect repair.
* Coating/Deposition Equipment: For various thin-film applications.

Major Milestone: SiC (Silicon Carbide) Breakthrough
The report highlights a significant achievement: "Obtained bulk orders for core process equipment such as ultra-high-temperature annealing furnaces for SiC-based semiconductor devices from mainstream industry customers."

  • Why SiC Matters: Silicon Carbide is the material of choice for next-generation power electronics, particularly in Electric Vehicles (EVs), renewable energy inverters, and industrial motor drives. SiC devices require processing temperatures significantly higher than traditional silicon, often exceeding 1,600°C.
  • Technical Barrier: Ultra-high-temperature annealing is a extremely challenging process requiring precise temperature control, specialized materials for furnace components, and vacuum/atmosphere management. Success here demonstrates Laplace’s advanced thermal engineering capabilities.
  • "Bulk Orders": The term "bulk" or "batch" orders implies that the equipment has passed rigorous qualification processes at major IDMs (Integrated Device Manufacturers) or foundries. This provides high visibility for future revenue and validates the technology’s reliability.

3.3 Strategic Implications

  • Margin Accretion: As the semiconductor segment grows, its higher gross margins (38%+) will lift the company’s blended margin, counteracting any potential compression in the PV segment due to competition.
  • Risk Diversification: The semiconductor cycle, while cyclical, does not always correlate perfectly with the PV cycle. This hedges against sector-specific downturns.
  • Brand Elevation: Supplying to "mainstream industry customers" in semiconductors enhances Laplace’s brand reputation, potentially opening doors to even more demanding applications in advanced logic or memory nodes.

4. Strategic Pillar III: Global Expansion and Supply Chain Resilience

The geopolitical landscape and trade policies (such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and EU Net Zero Industry Act) are reshaping the global PV supply chain. Manufacturers are moving production out of China to Southeast Asia, the US, and potentially Europe/Middle East to avoid tariffs and access local subsidies.

4.1 Overseas Market Strategy

Laplace is proactively adapting to this shift through a two-pronged approach:
1. Following Clients: Supporting downstream Chinese PV manufacturers as they establish factories abroad ("going global" strategy). This ensures that Laplace retains its existing customer base even as their production footprint shifts.
2. Direct Market Penetration: Actively engaging with local demand in Southeast Asia, the United States, and the Middle East.

4.2 Operational Optimization

The company is "optimizing global networks and resource allocation." This likely involves:
* Establishing local service teams to provide faster response times.
* Setting up regional supply chains to mitigate logistics risks and tariff exposures.
* Adapting equipment standards to meet local regulatory and safety requirements.

This global footprint is crucial for long-term growth, as the domestic Chinese market becomes increasingly saturated and competitive. Access to international markets allows Laplace to capture higher margins associated with non-Chinese projects, where competition may be less intense than in the domestic red ocean.


Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook is positive, institutional investors must consider the following risks inherent to the PV equipment sector and Laplace’s specific business model.

1. Industry Chain Price Fluctuation Risk

  • Description: The PV industry is notorious for boom-bust cycles driven by overcapacity. If downstream module and cell manufacturers face severe price wars, their capital expenditure (CapEx) budgets may be curtailed or delayed.
  • Impact on Laplace: Reduced CapEx leads to fewer equipment orders. Furthermore, intense competition among equipment suppliers could force Laplace to lower prices to win bids, compressing gross margins.
  • Mitigation: Laplace’s focus on N-type technology helps, as manufacturers must upgrade to remain competitive, creating a replacement cycle rather than just pure expansion. However, if the entire industry faces a prolonged downturn, even upgrade cycles may slow.

2. Technology Promotion and Iteration Risk

  • Description: The PV industry is characterized by rapid technological change. Today’s leading technology (e.g., TOPCon) could be displaced tomorrow by a more efficient or cheaper alternative (e.g., HJT, XBC, or Perovskite Tandems).
  • Impact on Laplace: If Laplace’s R&D fails to keep pace with the leading edge, or if it bets on the wrong technology route, its existing product portfolio could become obsolete. For instance, if HJT gains unexpected dominance over TOPCon, and Laplace is overly weighted towards TOPCon-specific tools, it could lose market share.
  • Mitigation: The company’s broad R&D portfolio (covering TOPCon, XBC, HJT-related processes, and Perovskite) suggests a hedged approach. However, R&D success is never guaranteed, and the cost of failed projects can be significant.

3. Intensified Industry Competition

  • Description: The equipment sector is attracting new entrants, and existing competitors are also upgrading their offerings.
  • Impact on Laplace: Increased competition can lead to:
    • Price Wars: Eroding margins.
    • Longer Sales Cycles: Customers taking more time to evaluate options.
    • Higher Selling Expenses: Increased marketing and demonstration costs.
  • Mitigation: Laplace’s established customer relationships, proven track record in acceptance, and integrated solution capabilities (automation + process) provide sticky advantages. Switching costs for manufacturers are high once a process is qualified.

4. Overseas Trade and Geopolitical Risk

  • Description: As Laplace expands globally, it becomes exposed to international trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions.
  • Impact on Laplace:
    • Tariffs: Direct tariffs on Chinese-made equipment in the US or EU could make Laplace’s products uncompetitive compared to local or non-Chinese rivals.
    • Export Controls: Restrictions on certain technologies or components could disrupt supply chains.
    • Local Content Requirements: Policies requiring a certain percentage of local manufacturing could force Laplace to invest heavily in overseas factories, increasing capital intensity and operational complexity.
  • Mitigation: The company’s strategy of optimizing global networks and potentially localizing assembly or service can help mitigate some of these risks, but political unpredictability remains a headwind.

5. Execution Risk in Semiconductor Segment

  • Description: While the semiconductor segment shows promise, it is still a smaller part of the overall business compared to PV.
  • Impact on Laplace: Scaling from "bulk orders" to sustained, large-scale revenue requires flawless execution in quality control, delivery timelines, and after-sales support. Any significant failure in a high-profile semiconductor client could damage reputation and stall growth in this sector.
  • Mitigation: The significant margin improvement suggests early execution success, but continuous monitoring of this segment’s revenue contribution and customer satisfaction is warranted.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Outlook: Photovoltaic Equipment

The global PV equipment sector is in a phase of structural transformation.
* Short-Term (1-2 Years): The industry is digesting the massive capacity additions of the past two years. This leads to cautious CapEx from some players, but aggressive CapEx from leaders seeking technological superiority. The focus is squarely on N-type efficiency gains. Equipment vendors who can deliver measurable efficiency improvements (even 0.1-0.2%) will win market share.
* Medium-Term (3-5 Years): The transition to N-type will be largely complete. The next battlefront will be cost reduction (lower silver usage, thinner wafers) and tandem technologies (Perovskite/Silicon). Equipment vendors with strong R&D in metallization, laser processing, and vacuum coatings for tandems will lead the next super-cycle.
* Long-Term: Consolidation is likely. Smaller, less innovative equipment makers may be squeezed out, leaving market share to dominant players like Laplace who offer integrated, high-efficiency solutions.

Sector Outlook: Semiconductor Equipment

The semiconductor equipment sector, particularly in power devices (SiC/GaN), remains robust due to the electrification of transport and energy infrastructure.
* Demand Drivers: EV adoption, renewable energy inverters, and industrial automation are driving long-term demand for SiC devices.
* Opportunity for Laplace: There is a strategic push for supply chain localization in many countries. Chinese equipment makers are finding opportunities to substitute imported tools in mature and specialty nodes, where geopolitical restrictions are less severe than in advanced logic nodes. Lapace’s entry into SiC annealing places it in a high-growth niche.

Valuation Analysis

We analyze Laplace’s valuation relative to its growth trajectory and peer group.

Financial Projections (2025-2027):

Year Revenue (CNY Mn) YoY Growth (%) Net Profit (CNY Mn) YoY Growth (%) EPS (CNY) P/E (x) @ 49.79
2023 (Actual) 2,966 134.32% 411 247.49% 1.126 N/A
2024 (Actual) 5,728 93.12% 729 77.53% 1.799 25.01
2025E 5,983 4.45% 763 4.57% 1.881 26.46
2026E 6,062 1.32% 784 2.80% 1.934 25.74
2027E 6,177 1.90% 854 8.93% 2.107 23.63

Source: Company Reports, Guojin Securities Institute Estimates

Valuation Commentary:
* P/E Multiple: The stock trades at approximately 26x forward earnings for 2025/2026. For a high-tech equipment manufacturer with exposure to both the renewable energy transition and the semiconductor boom, this multiple is reasonable. It reflects the market’s expectation of moderate revenue growth (single-digit %) but stable profitability.
* PEG Ratio: With expected net profit growth of ~4-9% in the near term, the PEG ratio is above 2.5x, which might seem high. However, this static view ignores the optionality of the semiconductor business and the potential for accelerated growth if N-type adoption exceeds expectations or if new products (like Perovskite equipment) gain traction.
* Peer Comparison: Compared to pure-play PV equipment peers, Laplace commands a slight premium due to its diversified semiconductor exposure and stronger balance sheet. Compared to broader semiconductor equipment peers, it trades at a discount, reflecting the lingering perception of it as a PV-centric company. As the semiconductor revenue share grows, we anticipate a re-rating upwards.
* Price-to-Book (P/B): The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 5.18x (2024) to 3.41x (2027), indicating that the stock price is not outpacing the accumulation of book value, suggesting a grounded valuation supported by tangible assets and retained earnings.

Consensus Rating:
Market sentiment remains strongly positive. Recent analyst reports consistently rate the stock as BUY. The average score from recent reports is 1.00, indicating unanimous buy recommendations among covered analysts. This consensus underscores confidence in the company’s strategic direction and execution capability.


Investment View

Core Investment Logic

1. Capturing the N-Type Supercycle:
Laplace is not just a participant but a leader in the N-type PV equipment revolution. The industry’s shift to TOPCon and XBC is not a fleeting trend but a fundamental requirement for maintaining levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) competitiveness. Laplace’s comprehensive suite of thermal, coating, and automation equipment positions it to capture a significant share of the replacement and expansion CapEx over the next 3-5 years. The company’s ability to deliver accepted, high-yield equipment gives it a recurring revenue stream from service, spare parts, and upgrades.

2. The Semiconductor "Option" is Becoming a Reality:
The semiconductor business is no longer a speculative venture. The 38.33% gross margin and bulk orders for SiC equipment are concrete evidence of commercial success. This segment provides a high-margin cushion that protects overall profitability during PV downturns. Moreover, the SiC market is structurally growing due to EV and renewable energy trends. Laplace’s expertise in high-temperature thermal processing is a transferable skill that gives it a competitive advantage in this niche. We expect this segment to contribute increasingly to overall profits, driving a potential multiple expansion as the market re-classifies Laplace from a "PV Equipment" stock to a "High-Precision Thermal Processing" stock.

3. Financial Prudence and Resilience:
In an industry prone to volatility, Laplace’s strengthening balance sheet (lower leverage, healthy cash flows) is a significant differentiator. It allows the company to:
* Continue aggressive R&D spending even when competitors cut back.
* Weather delays in customer payments or project cancellations.
* Pursue strategic M&A or partnerships if opportunities arise.
* Return value to shareholders through potential future dividends (though currently reinvesting).

4. Global Footprint as a Growth Accelerator:
By aligning with the global expansion of PV manufacturing, Laplace is insulating itself from domestic saturation. The ability to serve customers in Southeast Asia, the US, and the Middle East not only diversifies revenue sources but also exposes the company to markets where pricing power may be stronger due to localized supply constraints.

Strategic Recommendations for Investors

For Long-Term Institutional Investors:
* Accumulate on Weakness: The current valuation of ~26x P/E is fair but not cheap. However, given the long-term secular trends in renewable energy and semiconductor localization, Laplace represents a high-quality compounder. Any market-wide sell-off or sector-specific panic that drives the P/E below 20x should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
* Monitor Semiconductor Mix: Keep a close eye on the quarterly breakdown of revenue and profit from the semiconductor segment. A sustained increase in this mix will be a key catalyst for re-rating.
* Track R&D Milestones: Pay attention to announcements regarding Perovskite equipment and new metallization technologies. Success here could open up entirely new growth waves beyond the current N-type cycle.

For Tactical Traders:
* Catalyst Watch: Look for announcements of major overseas orders or new client wins in the semiconductor space. These events often trigger short-term price appreciation.
* Seasonality: Be aware of the seasonal patterns in revenue recognition. Q4 is typically stronger for equipment companies due to year-end acceptance pushes. Q2 weakness, as seen in 1H25, may present a tactical entry point if the long-term thesis remains intact.

Conclusion

Laplace stands at the intersection of two powerful megatrends: the global transition to clean energy (via high-efficiency PV) and the electrification/digitization of the economy (via semiconductor power devices). Its 1H25 performance confirms that the company is executing well on both fronts. While near-term quarterly fluctuations in profit are normal for the equipment business, the underlying trends—technological leadership, margin expansion in semiconductors, and financial health—are overwhelmingly positive.

We reaffirm our BUY rating with a conviction that Laplace is well-positioned to outperform the broader market over the next 12-24 months. The company’s ability to innovate, diversify, and globalize makes it a resilient and attractive holding for portfolios focused on sustainable technology and advanced manufacturing.


Appendix: Detailed Financial Analysis & Forecasts

A. Income Statement Analysis (Historical & Forecast)

The following table details the projected income statement, highlighting key trends in margins and expenses.

Item (CNY Mn) 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Total Revenue 1,266 2,966 5,728 5,983 6,062 6,177
YoY Growth - 134.3% 93.1% 4.5% 1.3% 1.9%
Cost of Goods Sold -849 -2,064 -4,122 -4,350 -4,457 -4,531
% of Revenue 67.1% 69.6% 72.0% 72.7% 73.5% 73.4%
Gross Profit 417 902 1,606 1,634 1,605 1,646
Gross Margin 32.9% 30.4% 28.0% 27.3% 26.5% 26.6%
Operating Taxes -11 -33 -10 -30 -30 -31
Selling Expenses -43 -104 -41 -60 -61 -62
Admin Expenses -84 -194 -272 -263 -242 -222
R&D Expenses -110 -232 -296 -299 -303 -309
EBIT 168 339 987 981 969 1,022
EBIT Margin 13.3% 11.4% 17.2% 16.4% 16.0% 16.5%
Net Finance Costs -8 17 -2 8 18 29
Asset Impairment -54 -112 -313 -219 -141 -124
Investment Income 6 15 40 20 20 20
Pre-Tax Profit 118 459 856 890 915 996
Income Tax 1 -37 -123 -125 -128 -140
Net Profit 119 422 733 766 787 857
Minority Interest 1 11 3 3 3 3
Attributable Net Profit 118 411 729 763 784 854
Net Margin 9.3% 13.8% 12.7% 12.7% 12.9% 13.8%

Key Observations:
* Revenue Stabilization: After explosive growth in 2023-2024, revenue growth normalizes to single digits. This reflects the maturation of the TOPCon installation base.
* Margin Pressure: Gross margins are forecast to slightly compress from 28.0% in 2024 to ~26.5% in 2026-2027. This is likely due to increased competition in standard equipment. However, the semiconductor mix should help stabilize this.
* Expense Control: Selling and Administrative expenses as a % of revenue are decreasing, indicating operating leverage. R&D remains stable at ~5% of revenue, ensuring innovation continuity.
* Impairment Reduction: Asset impairment losses are projected to decrease significantly from CNY 313 million in 2024 to CNY 124 million in 2027. This suggests a cleanup of older inventory or receivables related to obsolete PERC technology, leading to cleaner future earnings.

B. Cash Flow Analysis

Item (CNY Mn) 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Net Profit 119 422 733 766 787 857
Non-Cash Items 76 157 381 267 202 197
Working Capital Chg -373 687 -983 -902 117 122
Operating Cash Flow -178 1,188 80 43 994 1,063
CapEx -41 -272 -80 20 -260 -260
Investments -334 -988 -593 295 0 0
Investing Cash Flow -384 -1,252 -649 336 -240 -240
Equity Financing 1,171 1 659 0 0 0
Debt Financing -15 220 62 -18 10 10
Financing Cash Flow 1,142 246 778 -27 3 3
Net Cash Change 579 185 207 351 756 826

Key Observations:
* Operating Cash Flow Volatility: OCF was negative in 2022, strong in 2023, and weak in 2024/2025E. This is typical for equipment companies where working capital (inventory and receivables) builds up before final acceptance and payment. The forecasted surge in OCF to CNY 994 million in 2026 suggests a major cycle of collections and acceptances is expected then.
* CapEx Discipline: Capital expenditures are managed carefully, with a slight increase forecasted for 2026-2027 to support expansion, but not at levels that threaten liquidity.
* Financing Shift: The company relied heavily on equity financing in 2022-2024 to fund growth. From 2025 onwards, financing cash flow turns neutral/negative, indicating the company is becoming self-funding and may start paying down debt or returning capital.

C. Balance Sheet Strength

Item (CNY Mn) 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Cash & Equivalents 1,379 970 1,074 1,408 2,158 2,974
Receivables 579 1,439 1,145 1,913 1,833 1,777
Inventory 2,103 6,053 4,335 3,504 3,435 3,404
Total Current Assets 4,722 9,810 8,476 8,935 9,558 10,264
Fixed Assets 83 244 277 546 702 848
Total Assets 5,131 11,224 10,109 10,750 11,673 12,666
Short-Term Debt 13 202 137 150 160 170
Payables 1,374 2,630 1,866 2,409 2,465 2,504
Total Current Liab. 3,407 8,985 6,274 6,159 6,299 6,443
Long-Term Debt 0 61 165 138 138 138
Total Liabilities 3,499 9,113 6,569 6,445 6,580 6,716
Shareholders' Equity 1,631 2,098 3,524 4,286 5,070 5,924
Debt-to-Equity -101% -59% -42% -40% -48% -55%
Asset-Liability Ratio 68.2% 81.2% 65.0% 60.0% 56.4% 53.0%

Key Observations:
* Inventory Management: Inventory peaked in 2023 at CNY 6 billion and is forecast to decline to ~CNY 3.4 billion by 2027. This indicates efficient conversion of work-in-progress into sold and accepted equipment, freeing up cash.
* Cash Accumulation: Cash reserves are projected to nearly triple from 2024 to 2027, reaching CNY 2.97 billion. This provides a massive buffer for R&D, M&A, or shareholder returns.
* Deleveraging: The consistent decline in the asset-liability ratio from 81.2% in 2023 to a projected 53.0% in 2027 is a testament to the company’s prudent financial management and strong earnings retention.

D. Key Financial Ratios

Ratio 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
ROE (Diluted) 7.25% 19.58% 20.70% 17.79% 15.46% 14.42%
ROA 2.30% 3.66% 7.21% 7.09% 6.72% 6.74%
ROIC 10.34% 13.14% 21.99% 18.37% 15.46% 14.05%
AR Turnover Days 52.3 61.2 53.5 90.0 90.0 90.0
Inventory Turnover Days 532.3 721.2 459.9 300.0 290.0 285.0
AP Turnover Days 164.9 187.0 127.8 170.0 170.0 170.0

Key Observations:
* Return Metrics: ROE and ROIC are high but gradually declining as the equity base grows and the hyper-growth phase moderates. Nevertheless, an ROE of >14% is excellent for a manufacturing firm.
* Efficiency Improvements: Inventory turnover days are forecast to improve significantly from 460 days in 2024 to 285 days in 2027. This implies a much faster cash conversion cycle, enhancing liquidity and reducing carrying costs.
* Receivables: AR days are assumed to stabilize at 90 days, which is reasonable for B2B equipment sales with milestone payments.


Final Remarks

Laplace represents a compelling investment case in the renewable energy and advanced manufacturing sectors. Its successful navigation of the N-type technology transition, coupled with the emergent strength of its semiconductor equipment business, provides a dual-engine growth model. The financial data supports a narrative of maturing stability: revenue growth is moderating but remaining positive, margins are being protected by product mix and operational efficiency, and the balance sheet is becoming increasingly robust.

For institutional investors, the key is to look beyond the quarterly noise and focus on the structural shifts. The world needs more efficient solar cells, and it needs more power semiconductors. Laplace is providing the tools to build both. With a "Buy" rating and a clear path to sustained profitability, Laplace is well-positioned to deliver alpha in a portfolio focused on the energy transition and technological sovereignty.


Disclaimer:
This report is prepared by Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. and is intended for professional institutional investors only. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding its accuracy or completeness. The views expressed are those of the analyst at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. Guojin Securities and its affiliates may hold positions in the securities discussed and may engage in transactions related thereto.