JinkoSolar (688223.SH / JKS.N): Navigating the Cyclical Trough – Technological Leadership and Global Dominance Position for a Turnaround
Date: August 28, 2025
Sector: Renewable Energy / Photovoltaics (PV)
Analyst: Institutional Research Team
Rating: BUY
Current Price: CNY 5.54
Target Price: Implied Upside >15% (Based on "Buy" Rating Definition)
Executive Summary
JinkoSolar, the global leader in photovoltaic module shipments, released its interim financial results for the first half of 2025 on August 27. The report reflects a company navigating one of the most challenging periods in the recent history of the solar industry, characterized by severe supply-demand imbalances and intense price competition ("involution"). While the top-line revenue contracted by 33% year-over-year (YoY) to CNY 31.8 billion, and the company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY 2.91 billion, the underlying operational metrics reveal resilience in market share retention and strategic positioning for the next cycle.
Key Investment Thesis:
Despite the current profitability headwinds, we maintain a BUY rating on JinkoSolar. Our conviction is driven by three core pillars:
1. Unassailable Market Leadership: JinkoSolar maintained its position as the #1 global module shipper in 1H 2025 with 41.84 GW shipped, demonstrating robust demand for its products even in a downturn. Its diversified global footprint, with over 60% of shipments directed to overseas markets, provides a critical hedge against domestic pricing pressure.
2. Technological Alpha via TOPCon Iteration: The company’s aggressive rollout of high-power TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) technology is creating a tangible product differentiation. With mainstream module power ratings expected to reach 640W+ by end-2025 and 650-670W by 2026, JinkoSolar is positioned to capture a premium of $0.005-$0.01 per watt, directly aiding margin recovery as the industry shifts from price-based to value-based competition.
3. Inflection Point in Industry Dynamics: Recent regulatory interventions, including the late-June "anti-involution" initiatives and the August 19 multi-ministry symposium, signal a coordinated effort to stabilize prices. Coupled with rising upstream costs (polysilicon, wafers, cells), we anticipate a transmission of these costs to module prices, which should alleviate the negative gross margins currently experienced (-0.98% in 1H 2025) and drive profitability restoration in 2026-2027.
We have adjusted our earnings forecasts to reflect the deeper-than-expected trough in 2025, projecting a net loss of CNY 3.81 billion for the full year. However, we forecast a robust recovery to CNY 1.85 billion in net profit for 2026 and CNY 3.69 billion for 2027. The current valuation, trading at a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of approximately 1.87x for 2025E, offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors willing to look through the cyclical volatility.
Key Takeaways
1. Financial Performance: Deep Trough with Signs of Sequential Stabilization
The first half of 2025 was marked by significant financial pressure, consistent with the broader industry trend of margin compression due to oversupply.
- Revenue Contraction: Total revenue for 1H 2025 stood at CNY 31.8 billion, a decline of 33% YoY. This contraction is primarily attributed to the sharp decline in average selling prices (ASPs) across the PV supply chain, rather than a collapse in volume. In fact, shipment volumes remained robust, indicating that the revenue drop is price-driven.
- Profitability Challenge: The company reported a net loss attributable to parent company shareholders of CNY 2.91 billion (CNY -29.09 hundred million), compared to a marginal profit in the previous year. The non-GAAP net loss was CNY 3.18 billion (CNY -31.75 hundred million).
- Q2 Specifics: Q2 revenue was CNY 18.0 billion, down 26% YoY but up 30% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Net loss in Q2 was CNY 1.52 billion, deepening from Q1's CNY 1.39 billion loss. However, the non-GAAP net loss narrowed significantly to CNY 1.31 billion in Q2 from CNY 1.87 billion in Q1, suggesting that operational efficiencies and cost controls are beginning to take effect despite the harsh pricing environment.
- Gross Margin Pressure: The PV module business gross margin fell to -0.98% in 1H 2025. This negative margin underscores the severity of the price war, where selling prices dipped below cash costs for many industry participants. However, the sequential improvement in non-GAAP losses indicates that the worst of the margin erosion may be behind us.
| Financial Metric | 1H 2024 | 1H 2025 | YoY Change | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (CNY bn) | ~47.5 | 31.8 | -33% | 13.8 | 18.0 | +30% |
| Net Profit (CNY bn) | Positive | -2.91 | Turn to Loss | -1.39 | -1.52 | N/A |
| Non-GAAP Net Profit (CNY bn) | Positive | -3.18 | Turn to Loss | -1.87 | -1.31 | Narrowing |
| Module Gross Margin | Positive | -0.98% | Significant Drop | N/A | N/A | N/A |
(Note: 1H 2024 revenue estimated based on 33% decline to 31.8bn)
2. Operational Excellence: Shipment Leadership and Global Diversification
In a market where many peers are struggling to clear inventory, JinkoSolar’s ability to maintain shipment leadership is a testament to its brand strength, bankability, and distribution network.
- Global #1 Shipment Position: JinkoSolar shipped 41.84 GW of modules in 1H 2025, retaining the top spot globally. This volume leadership is crucial for maintaining economies of scale and spreading fixed costs over a larger base, which is vital for survival during margin-compressed periods.
- Q2 and Q3 Outlook: Q2 shipments reached 24.3 GW, demonstrating strong sequential growth. For Q3 2025, the company guides for shipments between 20-23 GW. While this represents a slight seasonal or strategic moderation from Q2, it remains at a very high absolute level, ensuring continued capacity utilization.
- Overseas Market Dominance: Over 60% of JinkoSolar’s shipments in 1H 2025 were directed to overseas markets. This geographic diversification is a key competitive advantage, as international markets generally offer higher margins and better pricing stability compared to the saturated domestic Chinese market.
- Japan: JinkoSolar has maintained its position as the shipment champion in Japan for multiple years, a market known for its high quality standards and sticky customer relationships.
- Middle East (Saudi Arabia): The company holds a market share in Saudi Arabia that is significantly higher than its peers, capitalizing on the Kingdom’s massive renewable energy expansion plans under Vision 2030.
- Emerging Markets: JinkoSolar is leading market share growth in key emerging regions including Southeast Asia, Latin America, and other parts of the Middle East. These regions are experiencing high double-digit growth rates in solar installations, providing a vital growth engine as mature markets slow.
3. Strategic Pivot: "Anti-Involution" and Price Recovery Catalysts
The Chinese PV industry has been engaged in a destructive price war ("involution") for the past 18 months, driving prices below cost and threatening the financial viability of even the largest players. However, 2H 2025 marks a potential turning point driven by policy intervention and market mechanics.
- Policy Intervention: Since late June 2025, the industry has seen a concerted push towards "anti-involution." This culminated in a high-level symposium on August 19, convened by six central government ministries, attended by major PV manufacturers and power generation companies. The explicit goal of these meetings is to curb irrational competition, stabilize supply chains, and ensure healthy profit margins for sustainable innovation.
- Upstream Price Transmission: We have observed rising prices in upstream segments, including polysilicon, silicon wafers, and solar cells. Historically, module prices lag behind upstream cost increases. However, given the current negative gross margins at the module level, there is an urgent economic imperative for module manufacturers to pass these cost increases downstream.
- Margin Repair Trajectory: We expect module prices to rise in the coming quarters to cover the increased upstream costs and restore positive gross margins. JinkoSolar, with its strong brand and differentiated high-efficiency products, is well-positioned to lead this price recovery. The combination of policy support and cost-push inflation creates a favorable backdrop for margin expansion in 2H 2025 and throughout 2026.
4. Technological Moat: TOPCon Leadership and Power Premium
Technology differentiation is becoming the primary driver of profitability in the post-subsidy, post-price-war era. JinkoSolar’s early and aggressive bet on N-type TOPCon technology is now paying dividends.
- Capacity Upgrade Roadmap:
- Current Status: As of the end of 1H 2025, JinkoSolar has over 20 GW of high-power TOPCon production capacity.
- 2025 Target: By the end of 2025, 40%-50% of the company’s total capacity will be upgraded to produce mainstream module models with power ratings exceeding 640W.
- 2026 Target: By 2026, select mainstream models are expected to reach power ratings of 650-670W.
- Economic Value of High Power: Higher wattage modules reduce the Balance of System (BOS) costs for developers (fewer modules, less racking, lower installation labor per watt). This allows JinkoSolar to command a price premium.
- Premium Estimate: We estimate that the continuous innovation in TOPCon technology and the resulting power upgrades will generate a premium of $0.005 to $0.01 per watt.
- Impact on Profitability: For a company shipping ~80-90 GW annually, a $0.005/W premium translates to $400-$450 million in additional gross profit, assuming stable costs. This premium is critical for breaking out of the "commodity trap" and restoring healthy return on invested capital (ROIC).
- Cost-Controlled Innovation: Importantly, JinkoSolar is achieving these power gains through iterative improvements rather than costly, greenfield investments in entirely new technology platforms. This "brownfield" upgrade strategy keeps capital expenditure (CapEx) relatively controlled while maximizing output value, enhancing free cash flow generation potential in the recovery phase.
5. New Growth Engine: Energy Storage Systems (ESS)
Recognizing the intermittency challenges of solar power and the growing demand for grid stability, JinkoSolar is aggressively expanding its Energy Storage System (ESS) business. This segment is expected to become a significant contributor to revenue and profit diversification.
- Product Portfolio: The company offers a comprehensive range of storage solutions, including:
- SunTera: Utility-scale large storage systems.
- SunGiga: Commercial and Industrial (C&I) storage products.
- Progress in 1H 2025: The first half saw multiple project deliveries and iterative upgrades to both product lines, indicating strong market acceptance and operational maturity.
- 2025 Shipment Target: JinkoSolar has set a shipment target of 6 GWh for its energy storage systems in 2025.
- Profit Contribution: As the ESS market scales and achieves economies of scale, it is expected to accelerate volume growth and contribute positively to overall profit margins. The integration of solar and storage offerings also enhances JinkoSolar’s value proposition to utility developers, creating cross-selling opportunities and stickier customer relationships.
Risks / Headwinds
While the outlook is improving, investors must remain cognizant of the significant risks facing JinkoSolar and the broader PV sector.
1. International Trade Environment Deterioration
- Tariffs and Trade Barriers: The PV industry is highly susceptible to geopolitical tensions. Potential increases in tariffs by the US (e.g., Section 301, UFLPA enforcement), Europe (anti-subsidy investigations), or India (ALMM list) could restrict access to high-margin markets.
- Supply Chain Decoupling: Efforts by Western nations to build local PV manufacturing capacity (e.g., US IRA, EU Net Zero Industry Act) could lead to long-term structural demand shifts away from Chinese manufacturers, although JinkoSolar’s global manufacturing footprint helps mitigate this.
- Currency Fluctuations: As a major exporter, JinkoSolar is exposed to foreign exchange risks. Appreciation of the RMB against the USD or other key currencies could erode the value of overseas earnings when repatriated.
2. Demand Miss and Macro-Economic Headwinds
- Interest Rate Sensitivity: Solar projects are capital-intensive. Higher-for-longer interest rates in key markets (US, Europe) can increase the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and dampen project economics, leading to deferred or cancelled installations.
- Grid Congestion: In many mature markets, grid infrastructure has not kept pace with solar deployment. Interconnection queues and curtailment risks are becoming significant bottlenecks, potentially slowing down the realization of demand.
- Policy Uncertainty: Changes in subsidy schemes, net metering policies, or renewable energy targets in key markets could negatively impact short-term demand.
3. Intensified Industry Competition
- Persistent Oversupply: Despite "anti-involution" efforts, the global PV supply chain still possesses significant excess capacity. If demand growth does not accelerate as expected, price competition could persist longer than anticipated, delaying margin recovery.
- Technology Disruption: While TOPCon is currently dominant, the emergence of alternative technologies such as Heterojunction (HJT) or Perovskite-Tandem cells could disrupt the market. If competitors achieve faster cost reductions or efficiency gains with these alternative technologies, JinkoSolar’s TOPCon investments could face obsolescence risk. However, JinkoSolar is also researching these next-gen technologies, mitigating this risk.
- Consolidation Risk: The current downturn may force smaller, less efficient players to exit, but it could also lead to aggressive pricing strategies by distressed competitors attempting to generate cash flow, thereby prolonging the price war.
4. Financial and Operational Risks
- Inventory Write-downs: Rapid changes in technology and pricing can lead to significant inventory impairment charges. If module prices fall further or if older P-type inventory becomes obsolete, additional write-downs could impact earnings.
- Credit Risk: Expansion into emerging markets often involves dealing with counterparties with lower credit ratings. Economic instability in these regions could lead to payment delays or defaults.
- Debt Levels: While JinkoSolar maintains a manageable debt profile, the period of negative cash flow requires careful liquidity management. Any tightening of credit conditions could constrain operational flexibility.
Rating / Sector Outlook
Sector Outlook: From "Survival" to "Restoration"
The global photovoltaic sector is transitioning from a phase of chaotic expansion and destructive competition to a phase of consolidation and rationalization.
- Supply Side Clearing: The prolonged period of below-cost pricing is unsustainable. We expect accelerated capacity exits among second-tier and financially weak manufacturers in 2H 2025 and 2026. This clearing process is essential for restoring industry-wide profitability.
- Demand Resilience: Despite macroeconomic headwinds, the long-term structural demand for renewable energy remains intact, driven by global decarbonization goals, energy security concerns, and the declining LCOE of solar plus storage. We expect global solar installations to continue growing at a double-digit CAGR over the next five years.
- Technology as King: The era of homogeneous competition is ending. Future winners will be determined by technological leadership (efficiency, durability), brand bankability, and integrated solutions (Solar + Storage). Companies like JinkoSolar that invest heavily in R&D and maintain high-quality standards will gain market share as customers prioritize value over lowest initial price.
- Policy Support: Government interventions in China and supportive policies in the US and Europe (despite trade frictions) provide a floor for demand. The Chinese government’s recent emphasis on "high-quality development" in the PV sector signals a shift away from pure volume metrics towards profitability and technological sophistication.
Company Rating: BUY
We maintain a BUY rating on JinkoSolar.
- Valuation Appeal: At a current price of CNY 5.54, the stock is trading at a P/B ratio of ~1.87x (2025E) and ~1.79x (2026E). Given JinkoSolar’s market leadership, technological edge, and expected return to profitability in 2026, this valuation appears discounted relative to its long-term earnings power.
- Earnings Revision: We have updated our financial model to reflect the challenging 1H 2025 results and the slower-than-expected price recovery.
- 2025E Net Profit: Adjusted down to CNY -3.81 billion (from previous estimates). This reflects the full impact of the 1H loss and a cautious view on 2H margin recovery.
- 2026E Net Profit: Forecast at CNY 1.85 billion. This assumes a gradual normalization of module prices, realization of TOPCon premiums, and contribution from the ESS business.
- 2027E Net Profit: Forecast at CNY 3.69 billion. This reflects a fully recovered industry environment, with healthy margins and sustained volume growth.
| Year | Revenue (CNY bn) | YoY Growth | Net Profit (CNY bn) | EPS (CNY) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023A | 118.68 | 43.55% | 7.44 | 0.744 | 11.91 | 2.58 | 21.65% |
| 2024A | 92.47 | -22.08% | 0.10 | 0.010 | 719.08 | 2.20 | 0.31% |
| 2025E | 71.01 | -23.21% | -3.81 | -0.380 | N/A | 1.87 | -12.84% |
| 2026E | 85.04 | 19.76% | 1.85 | 0.184 | 30.04 | 1.79 | 5.96% |
| 2027E | 92.95 | 9.30% | 3.69 | 0.368 | 15.04 | 1.65 | 11.00% |
Source: Company Reports, Guojin Securities Research Institute Estimates
Investment Horizon: 6-12 Months.
Catalysts:
1. Quarterly evidence of margin improvement in 2H 2025.
2. Successful implementation of price hikes in key markets.
3. Achievement of 6 GWh ESS shipment target.
4. Further policy support from Chinese regulators stabilizing upstream prices.
Investment View
1. The Case for Contrarian Entry
JinkoSolar presents a classic contrarian investment opportunity. The market has largely priced in the negative news of 1H 2025, with the stock reflecting the deep losses and revenue contraction. However, equity markets are forward-looking mechanisms. The key question for investors is not "how bad was 1H 2025?" but "how strong will the recovery be in 2026-2027?"
Our analysis suggests that the trough is now visible. The combination of policy-driven supply discipline, upstream cost pushes, and technological differentiation creates a clear path to margin restoration. Investors who wait for perfect clarity on profitability may miss the initial leg of the recovery rally. The current valuation offers a margin of safety, with the downside limited by the company’s asset base and market leadership, and the upside significant as earnings normalize.
2. Quality Matters in a Consolidation Phase
In cyclical downturns, quality companies do not just survive; they gain market share. JinkoSolar’s #1 shipment position is not accidental. It is the result of:
* Bankability: Top-tier status with international banks and developers, ensuring access to financing for customers.
* Distribution Network: A deeply entrenched global sales and service network that is difficult for newcomers to replicate.
* Product Reliability: A track record of high-quality, durable modules that minimize lifetime costs for owners.
As weaker players exit the market, JinkoSolar is well-positioned to absorb their market share, particularly in high-value overseas segments. The "flight to quality" trend is already evident in the company’s ability to maintain >60% overseas shipment mix despite global trade headwinds.
3. Technology Premium: The Key to Sustainable Margins
The most compelling aspect of JinkoSolar’s turnaround story is the shift from volume-driven to value-driven growth. The TOPCon technology roadmap is not just a marketing narrative; it has real economic implications.
- Quantifying the Premium: A $0.005-$0.01/W premium may seem small, but at scale, it is transformative. For every 10 GW shipped, this premium adds $50-$100 million to gross profit. With projected shipments of 80-90 GW in the medium term, this translates to $400-$900 million in incremental gross profit. This alone could drive the majority of the projected 2026-2027 profit recovery.
- Barrier to Entry: Achieving high yields and low degradation rates with high-power TOPCon modules requires significant know-how and process control. JinkoSolar’s experience gives it a yield advantage over later entrants, protecting its margin premium.
4. Energy Storage: The Hidden Optionality
The market often undervalues the ESS business of integrated solar companies. However, as solar penetration increases, the value of storage grows exponentially. JinkoSolar’s 6 GWh target for 2025 is ambitious but achievable given its channel access.
- Synergies: Selling solar and storage together allows for optimized system design and single-point accountability for customers, a strong selling point for utilities.
- Margin Profile: While currently competitive, the ESS market is less saturated than the module market. As JinkoSolar scales, it can leverage its procurement power for batteries and inverters to improve margins.
- Future Growth: Beyond 2025, the ESS business has the potential to grow at a faster rate than the solar module business, becoming a significant profit center. We view this as a call option on the future of grid-scale energy management.
5. Financial Health and Cash Flow Management
Investors are rightly concerned about cash burn during loss-making periods. However, JinkoSolar’s balance sheet remains resilient.
- Operating Cash Flow: Despite net losses, the company generated positive operating cash flow in previous years and is managing working capital tightly. The reduction in inventory levels (from CNY 18.2 billion in 2023 to CNY 12.5 billion in 2024) demonstrates effective inventory management, reducing the risk of future write-downs.
- CapEx Discipline: The company is shifting from aggressive capacity expansion to targeted upgrades. This reduces free cash flow burn and preserves liquidity for the downturn.
- Financing Access: As a listed entity with strong global banking relationships, JinkoSolar has access to diverse funding sources. The recent stabilization of the industry should also improve sentiment among lenders and equity investors, easing refinancing risks.
6. Comparative Advantage vs. Peers
When compared to its main competitors (e.g., LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, JA Solar), JinkoSolar stands out for:
* N-Type Transition Speed: JinkoSolar was earlier and more aggressive in its TOPCon rollout, giving it a first-mover advantage in high-efficiency products.
* Overseas Mix: Its higher proportion of overseas shipments provides better margin protection than peers more reliant on the domestic Chinese market.
* Integrated Strategy: The combination of leading module share and a growing ESS business offers a more diversified revenue stream than pure-play module manufacturers.
7. Long-Term Structural Trends Support the Bull Case
Beyond the cyclical recovery, several secular trends support JinkoSolar’s long-term growth:
* Electrification of Everything: The global shift towards electric vehicles, heat pumps, and industrial electrification will drive sustained growth in electricity demand, much of which will be met by solar.
* Energy Independence: Geopolitical tensions are driving nations to prioritize domestic renewable energy production to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.
* Cost Competitiveness: Solar is now the cheapest source of new electricity generation in most parts of the world. This economic fundamental ensures long-term demand regardless of subsidies.
Conclusion
JinkoSolar is navigating a difficult but transient storm. The 1H 2025 results, while disappointing on the surface, confirm the depth of the industry trough and highlight the company’s resilience in maintaining market leadership. The convergence of policy support, technological differentiation, and market consolidation sets the stage for a robust recovery in 2026 and 2027.
We believe the market is underestimating the speed and magnitude of this recovery, particularly the impact of the TOPCon power premium and the ESS growth trajectory. At current valuations, JinkoSolar offers an asymmetric risk-reward profile for institutional investors with a 12-24 month horizon. We recommend accumulating positions on weakness, viewing the current price as an attractive entry point into a global leader poised for a cyclical upswing.
Appendix: Detailed Financial Analysis & Model Assumptions
A. Revenue Forecast Methodology
Our revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is built on a bottom-up analysis of shipment volumes and average selling prices (ASPs).
-
Shipment Volume:
- 2025E: We project total shipments of approximately 85-90 GW. This is based on the 41.84 GW shipped in 1H and the guided 20-23 GW for Q3, implying a strong Q4. This represents a slight decline from 2024 levels, reflecting a strategic focus on profitability over pure volume in a low-price environment.
- 2026E: We forecast a 15-20% growth in shipments to ~100-105 GW, driven by global demand growth and market share gains from exiting competitors.
- 2027E: Moderate growth to ~110-115 GW as the market matures.
-
Average Selling Price (ASP):
- 2025E: We assume ASPs remain depressed in 1H but recover sequentially in 2H due to upstream cost pass-through. The full-year ASP is assumed to be lower than 2024, driving the revenue decline despite stable volumes.
- 2026E: We model a 5-8% increase in ASPs as the "anti-involution" measures take hold and the product mix shifts towards higher-power TOPCon modules.
- 2027E: Stable to slightly increasing ASPs, supported by inflation and value-added features.
B. Margin Assumptions
-
Gross Margin:
- 2025E: We forecast a full-year gross margin of ~0.8% (implied by CNY 585 million gross profit on CNY 71 billion revenue). This reflects the -0.98% margin in 1H and a gradual improvement to low-single digits in 2H.
- 2026E: We project a significant expansion to ~9.4%, driven by normalized pricing, TOPCon premiums, and operating leverage.
- 2027E: Further expansion to ~11.4% as the company achieves optimal scale and product mix.
-
Operating Expenses:
- R&D: We assume R&D expenses remain robust (~1.0-1.2% of revenue) to sustain technological leadership.
- SG&A: Selling, General, and Administrative expenses are expected to decrease as a percentage of revenue due to operating leverage as revenue recovers.
C. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Projections
-
Operating Cash Flow:
- 2025E: Positive operating cash flow of CNY 3.14 billion is projected, driven by working capital management (inventory reduction and extended payables) despite net losses.
- 2026E-2027E: Strong generation of operating cash flow (CNY 10.9 billion and CNY 12.7 billion respectively) as profitability returns.
-
Capital Expenditure (CapEx):
- 2025E: CapEx is forecast at CNY 6.33 billion, focused on TOPCon upgrades and ESS capacity.
- 2026E-2027E: CapEx declines to CNY 5.85 billion and CNY 3.85 billion respectively, reflecting the shift from expansion to maintenance and efficiency upgrades.
-
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
- The company is expected to generate positive FCF in 2026 and 2027, supporting debt repayment and potential shareholder returns in the future.
D. Valuation Metrics
- Price-to-Earnings (P/E): Not meaningful for 2025 due to losses. For 2026E, the P/E is ~30x, which is reasonable for a high-growth recovery story in the renewable sector. For 2027E, the P/E drops to ~15x, offering attractive value.
- Price-to-Book (P/B): The P/B ratio of ~1.8x for 2025E is below the historical average for JinkoSolar during profitable periods, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its asset base and franchise value.
- Return on Equity (ROE): ROE is expected to turn negative in 2025 (-12.84%) but recover to ~6% in 2026 and ~11% in 2027, approaching historical norms.
Disclaimer and Regulatory Information
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