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Deye Shares 2025 Semi-Annual Report Review: Significant Ramp-up in C&I Energy Storage Business; Continued Momentum in Emerging Markets

Published 2025-09-04 · Chengtong Securities · Wang Zixun
Source: 605117_16963.html

Deye Shares 2025 Semi-Annual Report Review: Significant Ramp-up in C&I Energy Storage Business; Continued Momentum in Emerging Markets

605117.SHOverweightPhotovoltaic Equipment
Date2025-09-04
InstitutionChengtong Securities
AnalystsWang Zixun
RatingOverweight
IndustryPhotovoltaic Equipment
StockDeye Shares (605117)
Report typeStock

Deye Shares (605117.SH): C&I Storage Momentum Accelerates; Emerging Markets Drive Structural Growth

Date: September 3, 2025
Ticker: 605117.SH
Sector: Renewable Energy / Energy Storage
Rating: Recommend (Maintained)
Current Price: CNY 66.85
Target Price Implied Upside: Based on forward P/E multiples relative to growth trajectory.


Executive Summary

Deye Shares (hereinafter referred to as "the Company" or "Deye") has released its semi-annual report for the first half of 2025 (1H25), demonstrating resilient top-line growth and robust profitability amidst a evolving global energy storage landscape. The Company reported total operating revenue of CNY 5.54 billion in 1H25, representing a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 16.6%. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 1.52 billion, up 23.2% YoY. Notably, the second quarter (2Q25) exhibited sequential acceleration, with revenue rising 15.7% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to CNY 29.7 billion and net profit increasing 15.7% QoQ to CNY 8.2 billion. This sequential improvement underscores the strengthening demand dynamics in the Company’s core markets and the successful ramp-up of new product lines.

The core investment thesis for Deye Shares remains anchored in three pivotal developments observed in 1H25:
1. Structural Shift Toward Higher-Value Storage Solutions: The energy storage battery pack segment has emerged as a primary growth engine, with revenue surging 85.8% YoY. This segment’s contribution to total revenue expanded by 3.8 percentage points (pct) to 25.8%, reflecting the Company’s successful strategy of increasing self-supply ratios and integrating vertically.
2. Breakout in Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Storage: While residential storage remains stable, the C&I inverter segment is gaining significant traction. Shipments of C&I inverters reached 43,000 units in 1H25. Leveraging its established channel networks and R&D capabilities, Deye is successfully capturing market share in emerging economies across Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, where grid instability and rising electricity costs are driving decentralized energy adoption.
3. Resilient Profitability Amidst Product Mix Changes: Despite the rapid expansion of the battery pack business—which typically carries lower gross margins than pure inverter sales—the Company maintained a stable overall gross margin of 37.5% in 1H25 (up 0.3 pct YoY). This indicates strong pricing power, effective cost management, and the high value-add of its integrated solutions.

We maintain our "Recommend" rating on Deye Shares. We project the Company’s revenue to reach CNY 14.26 billion, CNY 17.57 billion, and CNY 21.18 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 3.68 billion, CNY 4.52 billion, and CNY 5.47 billion. At the current market capitalization of approximately CNY 60.5 billion, the stock trades at attractive forward P/E multiples of 16x (2025E), 13x (2026E), and 11x (2027E). Given its diversified geographic footprint, leading position in emerging markets, and the structural tailwinds supporting global energy storage adoption, Deye Shares is well-positioned for sustained compound annual growth.


Key Takeaways

1. Financial Performance: Robust Growth with Sequential Acceleration

The 1H25 financial results highlight Deye’s ability to navigate a complex macroeconomic environment while delivering consistent growth. The divergence between revenue growth (+16.6%) and net profit growth (+23.2%) suggests an improvement in operational efficiency and/or a favorable shift in the product mix towards higher-margin offerings or better cost control.

1.1 Half-Year Overview (1H25)

  • Total Revenue: CNY 5.54 billion (+16.6% YoY).
  • Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: CNY 1.52 billion (+23.2% YoY).
  • Gross Margin: 37.5% (+0.3 pct YoY; +0.5 pct QoQ).
  • Net Margin: Approximately 27.4% (derived from net profit/revenue), indicating strong bottom-line retention.

1.2 Second Quarter Dynamics (2Q25)

The second quarter demonstrated a clear inflection point in momentum. After a potentially seasonally softer start to the year, 2Q25 saw both top-line and bottom-line metrics accelerate sequentially.
* 2Q25 Revenue: CNY 29.7 billion (+3.7% YoY; +15.7% QoQ).
* 2Q25 Net Profit: CNY 8.2 billion (+1.7% YoY; +15.7% QoQ).

The sequential growth of 15.7% in both revenue and profit is particularly noteworthy. It suggests that the Company’s sales initiatives, particularly in the emerging markets and the new C&I product launches, began to yield tangible results in the second quarter. This momentum is expected to carry into the second half of the year, traditionally a stronger period for solar and storage installations due to favorable weather conditions in key markets and year-end budget cycles for commercial clients.

Metric 1H24 (Base) 1H25 (Actual) YoY Change 2Q25 (Actual) QoQ Change (vs 1Q25 implied)
Revenue (CNY bn) ~4.75 5.54 +16.6% 2.97 +15.7%
Net Profit (CNY bn) ~1.23 1.52 +23.2% 0.82 +15.7%
Gross Margin (%) 37.2% 37.5% +0.3 pct N/A +0.5 pct (vs 1H avg)

(Note: 1H24 base figures are derived from the reported YoY growth rates.)

2. Business Segment Analysis: Structural Optimization

Deye’s business portfolio comprises four main segments: Inverters, Energy Storage Battery Packs, Heat Exchangers, and Dehumidifiers. The 1H25 data reveals a decisive shift in the revenue composition, moving away from traditional home appliances and low-margin components toward high-growth, integrated energy storage solutions.

2.1 Inverter Business: The Core Cash Cow Stabilizes and Evolves

The inverter segment remains the largest contributor to revenue, accounting for 47.9% of the total in 1H25.
* Revenue: CNY 2.64 billion (+13.9% YoY).
* Shipment Volume: 764,000 units (+7.3% YoY).
* Gross Margin: 47.8%. This exceptionally high margin underscores Deye’s technological moat and brand premium in the inverter space.

Strategic Shift within Inverters:
While the total inverter shipment growth was moderate at 7.3%, the internal composition is shifting significantly.
* Residential Hybrid Inverters: 273,000 units. This segment remains steady, supported by the mature markets in Europe and the growing DIY/storage retrofit market in other regions.
* Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Inverters: 43,000 units. This is the standout metric. The "significant volume increase" in C&I products highlights the success of Deye’s strategy to expand beyond the residential sector. The C&I segment is critical for long-term growth as it offers larger average selling prices (ASPs), stickier customer relationships, and higher barriers to entry compared to the commoditized residential market.

The slight decline in the revenue share of inverters (-1.8 pct vs. full-year 2024) is not a sign of weakness but rather a reflection of the faster growth rate of the battery pack segment. The absolute growth of 13.9% in inverter revenue is healthy and sustainable.

2.2 Energy Storage Battery Packs: The High-Growth Engine

The battery pack segment is undergoing a transformation from a supplementary offering to a core pillar of Deye’s business model.
* Revenue: CNY 1.42 billion (+85.8% YoY).
* Revenue Share: 25.8% (+3.8 pct vs. full-year 2024).
* Gross Margin: 35.0%.

Drivers of Growth:
1. Increased Self-Supply Ratio: Historically, many inverter manufacturers sourced batteries from third parties. Deye’s ability to increase its self-supply ratio improves supply chain security, allows for better quality control, and captures the margin previously lost to external suppliers. This vertical integration is a key competitive advantage.
2. Integrated Solutions: The market increasingly prefers "all-in-one" solutions from a single vendor for ease of installation, warranty management, and system compatibility. Deye’s bundled inverter-battery offerings are gaining traction.
3. Market Expansion: The 85.8% growth rate far outpaces the inverter segment, indicating that Deye is successfully cross-selling batteries to its existing inverter install base and acquiring new customers specifically for storage solutions.

2.3 Environmental Appliances: Cyclical Headwinds

The legacy appliance businesses faced headwinds in 1H25, reflecting both macroeconomic factors and specific weather patterns.
* Heat Exchangers:
* Revenue: CNY 870 million (-17.8% YoY).
* Share: 15.7% (-1.8 pct).
* Margin: 12.6%.
* Driver: Decline attributed to shrinking customer demand. This segment is often tied to HVAC and industrial cooling cycles, which may have softened due to broader industrial slowdowns in certain regions.
* Dehumidifiers:
* Revenue: CNY 410 million (-10.3% YoY).
* Share: 7.4% (-1.3 pct).
* Margin: 36.1%.
* Driver: Two main factors: (1) Intensified homogenization competition, leading to price pressure or volume loss; (2) Weak "Hui Nan Tian" (returning south wind/humid season) weather patterns in the first half of the year. Since dehumidifier sales are highly weather-dependent in China and parts of Asia, a milder humid season directly impacts sell-through.

Despite the revenue decline, the dehumidifier business maintains a high gross margin of 36.1%, comparable to the battery segment. Deye maintains its positioning in the mid-to-high-end market, preserving its brand equity and profitability even as volumes fluctuate. This segment serves as a cash cow that funds R&D in the high-growth energy sectors.

2.4 Profitability Analysis: Stability in a Changing Mix

A common concern when a high-margin business (Inverters at 47.8%) is diluted by a lower-margin business (Batteries at 35.0%) is the compression of overall gross margins. However, Deye’s overall gross margin expanded slightly to 37.5% in 1H25.

How was this achieved?
1. Cost Efficiency: Economies of scale in battery production and inverter manufacturing likely reduced unit costs.
2. Product Mix Within Segments: Within the inverter segment, the shift towards higher-power C&I units and advanced hybrid models may have supported ASPs. Within batteries, the focus on higher-specification products (e.g., the SE-F Neptune series) may have commanded better pricing.
3. Raw Material Costs: Potential stabilization or decline in lithium carbonate and other raw material costs in 1H25 may have benefited the battery margin.
4. Currency Effects: As a major exporter, favorable exchange rate movements (if any) could have boosted reported margins.

The stability of the net margin at ~25.8% (forecast for 2025) further confirms that operating expenses (R&D, Sales & Marketing) are being managed efficiently relative to revenue growth.

3. Strategic Drivers: Emerging Markets and C&I Breakout

The qualitative aspects of the 1H25 report provide crucial context for the quantitative data. Deye’s strategic focus on Emerging Markets and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) applications is paying off.

3.1 The Emerging Market Advantage

Unlike many competitors who are heavily exposed to saturated or policy-volatile markets like Europe or Australia, Deye has cultivated a dominant position in emerging economies, specifically:
* Southeast Asia: Rising electricity tariffs, frequent grid outages, and increasing solar awareness drive demand.
* Africa: Severe grid instability makes off-grid and hybrid storage solutions a necessity rather than a luxury. Deye’s robust, off-grid capable inverters are ideally suited for this region.
* Middle East: Government initiatives for renewable energy transition and high solar irradiance levels create a fertile ground for large-scale and C&I storage projects.

Why this matters:
1. Lower Competition Intensity: While price wars rage in mature markets, emerging markets often value reliability, after-sales service, and brand trust over the lowest possible price. Deye’s established channel network provides a moat.
2. Higher Growth Potential: These regions are in the early stages of their solar/storage adoption curve, offering a longer runway for double-digit growth compared to mature markets.
3. Diversification: By not relying on any single market, Deye mitigates country-specific regulatory risks.

3.2 C&I Storage: The New Frontier

The shipment of 43,000 C&I inverters is a significant milestone. The C&I segment differs from residential in several key ways:
* Complexity: Requires more sophisticated energy management systems (EMS) and grid-support features.
* Sales Cycle: Longer, involving direct B2B sales and partnerships with EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) firms.
* Stickiness: Once installed, C&I systems are less likely to be replaced, creating a long-term service and upgrade revenue stream.

Deye’s success here is attributed to:
* Channel Leverage: Utilizing existing distributor relationships to upsell C&I solutions.
* R&D Adaptation: Tailoring products to meet the specific voltage, frequency, and communication protocol requirements of different emerging markets.
* Product Portfolio: The launch of specialized C&I solutions (discussed below) demonstrates a commitment to this segment.

3.3 Marketing and Brand Building: Active Global Engagement

In 1H25, Deye executed an aggressive marketing strategy to support its international expansion:
* 4 Major International Energy Storage Exhibitions: Participation in top-tier trade shows enhances brand visibility and credibility among professional installers and distributors.
* 5 Regional Roadshows and Brand Dinners: These targeted events allow for deeper engagement with key partners and influencers in specific markets.
* Reach: Activities touched 7 important markets, ensuring that marketing spend is converted into tangible business development opportunities.

This "high-spec exhibition + deep regional roadshow" approach is more effective than broad, untargeted advertising. It builds trust in B2B relationships, which is critical for the C&I and large-scale residential sectors.

4. Product Innovation Pipeline

Deye continues to innovate, launching several new products in 1H25 that address specific market needs:

  1. Off-Grid Inverters: Critical for markets with unreliable grids (Africa, parts of Asia). These products emphasize robustness and standalone capability.
  2. SE-F Neptune Series Batteries: A new line of energy storage batteries, likely featuring improved energy density, cycle life, or safety features. The "Neptune" branding suggests a focus on fluidity/integration or perhaps a specific aesthetic/design language for premium markets.
  3. Balcony Storage Solutions: Targeting the European apartment market where roof access is limited. These plug-and-play systems are a growing niche in urban environments.
  4. 100KPCS & BOS-B C&I Solutions:
    • 100KPCS: Likely refers to a 100kW Power Conversion System (PCS) for commercial applications. This power rating is ideal for small factories, commercial buildings, and community microgrids.
    • BOS-B: Balance of System solutions, simplifying installation for integrators.
  5. MS-LC430 Optical-Storage-Charging Integrated Solution: This represents the convergence of Solar (Optical), Storage, and EV Charging. As EV adoption grows globally, integrated solutions that manage solar generation, battery storage, and EV charging loads become highly valuable for commercial sites and wealthy residential users.

These launches demonstrate that Deye is not just a hardware vendor but a solution provider, addressing the holistic energy needs of its customers.


Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook is positive, institutional investors must consider the following risks, which are explicitly highlighted in the source report and inherent to the industry:

1. Macro-Economic and Demand Risks

  • Global PV/Storage Growth Slowdown: If the global transition to renewable energy slows due to economic recessions, high interest rates, or policy reversals, Deye’s growth projections could be compromised.
  • Emerging Market Volatility: While Deye leads in emerging markets, these economies are often more susceptible to currency crises, political instability, and inflation. A sudden economic downturn in Southeast Asia, Africa, or the Middle East could disproportionately impact Deye compared to peers focused on stable developed markets.

2. Policy and Regulatory Risks

  • Subsidy Changes: Many markets rely on net metering, feed-in tariffs, or direct subsidies to make solar+storage economically viable. Sudden removal or reduction of these incentives (as seen in some European countries previously) can cause immediate demand shocks.
  • Trade Protectionism: The rise of global trade protectionism, particularly led by the United States but potentially spreading to other regions, poses a significant threat. Tariffs, import quotas, or local content requirements could increase costs or bar entry to key markets. The report specifically notes the risk of trade frictions affecting overseas business.

3. Competitive Landscape

  • Price Wars: The inverter and battery industries are becoming increasingly crowded. Competitors may engage in aggressive pricing to gain market share, leading to margin compression. While Deye has maintained margins so far, sustained price pressure could erode profitability.
  • Technological Disruption: Rapid advancements in battery chemistry (e.g., solid-state) or inverter topology could render current products obsolete if Deye fails to keep pace with R&D.

4. Supply Chain and Cost Risks

  • Raw Material Price Volatility: Direct materials constitute a large portion of the cost of goods sold. Fluctuations in the prices of lithium, copper, aluminum, and semiconductors can impact gross margins. While 1H25 saw stability, future spikes cannot be ruled out.
  • Supply Chain Disruptions: Geopolitical tensions or logistical bottlenecks could disrupt the supply of critical components.

5. Financial Risks

  • Exchange Rate Fluctuations: With a high proportion of overseas income, Deye is exposed to foreign exchange risk. Significant appreciation of the CNY against the USD, EUR, or other relevant currencies would negatively impact reported revenues and profits. Conversely, depreciation benefits exports but may increase the cost of imported raw materials.
  • Inventory Valuation: Rapid technological change and price declines in batteries could lead to inventory write-downs if Deye holds significant stock of older-generation products.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Outlook: Positive with Structural Shifts

The global energy storage sector is transitioning from a policy-driven niche to a mainstream economic imperative. Key trends include:
1. Grid Stability Needs: As renewable penetration increases, the need for frequency regulation and peak shaving (provided by storage) grows.
2. Cost Parity: The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) continues to decline, making solar+storage competitive with fossil fuels in more regions.
3. Electrification: The rise of EVs and electric heating increases household and commercial electricity demand, driving the need for self-consumption optimization via storage.

Within this sector, companies with diversified geographic exposure and integrated product portfolios (Inverter + Battery) are best positioned. Pure-play inverter makers face margin pressure, while pure-play battery makers face intense commoditization. Deye’s hybrid model offers a balanced risk-return profile.

Company Rating: Recommend (Maintained)

We maintain our Recommend rating for Deye Shares. The Company’s 1H25 performance validates our previous thesis regarding its strength in emerging markets and its ability to execute a successful product mix shift.

Valuation Analysis:
* Current Price: CNY 66.85
* Market Cap: CNY 60.5 billion
* Forward P/E (2025E): ~16x
* Forward P/E (2026E): ~13x
* PEG Ratio: Given the projected net profit CAGR of ~22% (2025-2027), the PEG ratio is approximately 0.7x (16/22), which is attractive for a high-quality growth company in the renewable sector.

Compared to historical averages and peer groups, Deye trades at a reasonable valuation that discounts some of the near-term macro uncertainties but does not fully reflect the long-term compounding potential of its C&I and emerging market strategies. The downward revision in P/E from 31.8x (2023A) to 15.5x (2025E) reflects the normalization of growth rates post-pandemic boom, but the current multiple offers a compelling entry point for long-term investors.


Investment View

1. Core Investment Logic

A. The "Emerging Market Alpha"
Deye Shares is not just a participant in the global solar/storage market; it is the leader in the fastest-growing segments of that market. While Western competitors fight for share in saturated European markets, Deye dominates in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. These regions represent the next wave of global electrification. Deye’s early mover advantage, established distribution networks, and products tailored to local conditions (e.g., off-grid capability, robustness) create a durable competitive moat. As these economies grow, Deye’s revenue base expands organically.

B. Vertical Integration and Margin Resilience
The rapid growth of the battery pack business (+85.8% YoY) coupled with stable overall gross margins (37.5%) demonstrates the power of vertical integration. By controlling both the inverter (the brain) and the battery (the muscle), Deye offers a superior user experience and captures more value per installation. The increase in self-supply ratio reduces dependency on third-party battery suppliers, improving supply chain resilience and margin visibility. This integration is difficult for competitors to replicate quickly.

C. C&I Storage: The Next Leg of Growth
The breakout in C&I inverter shipments (43,000 units) signals a successful diversification beyond the residential sector. The C&I market is larger, less fragmented, and offers higher barriers to entry. Deye’s ability to penetrate this segment using its existing channels and new product launches (100KPCS, BOS-B) opens a significant total addressable market (TAM) expansion. This reduces reliance on the volatile residential consumer discretionary spending cycle.

D. Financial Health and Cash Flow Generation
Deye generates strong operating cash flows (CNY 4.48 billion projected for 2025), supporting ongoing R&D and capacity expansion without excessive leverage. The balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-asset ratio (projected 33.7% for 2025) and significant cash reserves. This financial strength allows the Company to weather downturns and invest counter-cyclically when competitors are constrained.

2. Catalysts for Re-rating

  1. Continued C&I Momentum: If subsequent quarterly reports show C&I shipments accelerating beyond 43,000 units per half-year, the market may re-rate Deye as a serious industrial player, not just a residential supplier.
  2. New Market Penetration: Successful entry into larger emerging markets (e.g., India, Latin America) with significant volume contributions.
  3. Margin Expansion: If the battery self-supply ratio continues to rise and economies of scale kick in, overall gross margins could expand beyond 38%, driving earnings beats.
  4. Policy Support in Key Regions: Favorable renewable energy policies in Southeast Asia or Africa could trigger a surge in demand.

3. Long-Term Strategic Outlook (2025-2027)

Our financial forecasts project a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for revenue of ~23.6% and for net profit of ~22.7% from 2024 to 2027.

Year Revenue (CNY bn) YoY Growth Net Profit (CNY bn) YoY Growth EPS (CNY) P/E (x)
2023A 7.48 25.6% 1.79 18.0% 2.77 31.8
2024A 11.21 49.8% 2.96 65.3% 4.58 19.2
2025E 14.26 27.3% 3.68 24.4% 5.70 15.5
2026E 17.57 23.2% 4.52 22.6% 6.99 12.6
2027E 21.18 20.5% 5.47 21.2% 8.47 10.4

Source: Chengtong Securities Research Institute Estimates

The gradual deceleration in growth rates (from 49.8% in 2024 to ~20% in 2027) is natural as the base effect diminishes and the company matures. However, maintaining >20% growth in a capital-intensive industry is exceptional. The compression of the P/E multiple from 19.2x (2024A) to 10.4x (2027E) reflects the market’s expectation of this normalization. We believe the current multiple of ~15.5x for 2025E is fair, offering a balance between growth potential and risk.

4. Detailed Financial Analysis & Assumptions

Revenue Drivers

  • Inverters: We assume a steady volume growth of ~10-15% annually, driven by C&I expansion and emerging market residential demand. ASPs may remain stable or decline slightly due to competition, but volume growth will offset this.
  • Battery Packs: We project continued high growth (>30% YoY) as the self-supply ratio increases and attachment rates (batteries sold per inverter) improve. This segment will become the primary revenue driver by 2027.
  • Appliances: We assume flat to slightly declining revenue for heat exchangers and dehumidifiers, reflecting mature market dynamics. However, their high margins will continue to contribute disproportionately to profit.

Margin Assumptions

  • Gross Margin: We forecast a stable gross margin of ~38.3-38.5% through 2027. This assumes that cost savings from vertical integration and scale will offset any price competition. The mix shift towards batteries (lower margin) is balanced by the mix shift towards C&I (higher margin) and operational efficiencies.
  • Operating Expenses: R&D expenses are projected to grow in absolute terms (from CNY 669m in 2025E to CNY 1,085m in 2027E) to support new product development, but as a percentage of revenue, they remain manageable (~5%). Sales and administrative expenses are expected to scale linearly with revenue.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

  • Working Capital: Inventory levels are projected to rise (CNY 1.35bn in 2025E to CNY 2.05bn in 2027E) to support higher sales volumes. However, inventory turnover should remain efficient.
  • Cash Flow: Strong operating cash flows (CNY 4.48bn in 2025E) will fund capital expenditures (CNY 2.12bn in 2025E) for capacity expansion. The company is expected to remain net cash positive or have manageable debt levels, ensuring financial flexibility.

5. Comparative Valuation Context

While a direct peer comparison table is not provided in the source, we can contextualize Deye’s valuation within the broader renewable equipment sector.
* Growth vs. Value: Deye trades at a forward P/E of 16x for 2025E. Many high-growth tech-enabled energy companies trade at 20-30x. Deye’s lower multiple reflects its exposure to emerging markets (perceived higher risk) and the hardware nature of its business. However, its >20% earnings growth justifies a premium over pure hardware manufacturers trading at 10-12x.
* ROE Quality: With a projected ROE of >30% (32.2% in 2025E), Deye demonstrates exceptional capital efficiency. High ROE companies typically command higher valuations. The current P/B of 5.0x (2025E) is reasonable given the high ROE and growth profile.

6. Conclusion

Deye Shares stands out as a high-quality compounder in the global energy transition. Its 1H25 results confirm that the Company is successfully executing its strategic pivot towards integrated storage solutions and emerging markets. The significant uptake in C&I inverters and the explosive growth in battery packs provide clear visibility into future earnings.

For institutional investors, Deye offers a compelling combination of:
1. Defensive Qualities: Strong cash flow, low debt, and diversified geographic revenue.
2. Offensive Growth: Exposure to the high-growth C&I and emerging market segments.
3. Reasonable Valuation: A forward P/E of 16x for a company growing earnings at >20% is attractive.

We recommend accumulating shares on any market weakness, with a medium-to-long-term horizon. The key monitoring points for the next quarter will be the sustainability of C&I shipment growth and the gross margin trend in the battery segment.


Appendix: Detailed Financial Forecasts

Income Statement Summary (CNY Million)

Item 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E
Revenue 7,480 11,206 14,260 17,571 21,181
Cost of Revenue 4,457 6,862 8,800 10,799 13,066
Gross Profit 3,023 4,344 5,460 6,772 8,115
Gross Margin % 40.4% 38.8% 38.3% 38.5% 38.3%
Operating Expenses 953 1,109 1,434 1,872 2,296
- R&D 436 549 669 889 1,085
- S&A 278 288 396 514 635
- G&A 239 272 369 469 576
Operating Profit 2,098 3,404 4,248 5,226 6,333
Net Profit (Attrib.) 1,791 2,960 3,684 4,516 5,471
Net Margin % 23.9% 26.4% 25.8% 25.7% 25.8%

Balance Sheet Highlights (CNY Million)

Item 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E
Total Assets 10,817 15,114 17,291 22,160 25,857
Current Assets 7,932 10,815 12,567 16,960 20,168
- Cash 2,978 3,554 4,896 5,115 7,527
- Inventory 754 1,360 1,351 1,976 2,050
Total Liabilities 5,586 5,660 5,827 8,017 8,273
Shareholders' Equity 5,231 9,454 11,460 14,133 17,571
Debt-to-Asset % 51.6% 37.4% 33.7% 36.2% 32.0%

Cash Flow Statement Highlights (CNY Million)

Item 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E
Operating Cash Flow 2,081 3,367 4,483 3,794 6,201
Investing Cash Flow (1,724) (1,805) (2,119) (2,355) (2,539)
Financing Cash Flow (178) (660) (1,022) (1,219) (1,250)
Net Change in Cash 269 913 1,342 220 2,411

Disclaimer and Important Disclosures

Analyst Certification:
The analyst(s) responsible for this report, Wang Zixun (Certificate No. S0280524110001), hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject securities or issuers. No part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Risk Rating:
According to the "Measures for the Appropriateness Management of Securities and Futures Investors" and the "Guidelines for the Implementation of Appropriateness Management for Securities Operating Institutions (Trial)", Chengtong Securities rates this research report as R3 (Medium Risk). It is applicable only to professional investors and ordinary investors with risk tolerance levels of C3, C4, and C5. If you are a non-professional investor or an ordinary investor with a risk tolerance level below C3, please do not read, collect, receive, or use any information in this report.

Investment Rating Definitions:
* Strong Buy: Expected stock price appreciation of >20% relative to the CSI 300 Index over the next 6-12 months.
* Recommend: Expected stock price appreciation of 5%-20% relative to the CSI 300 Index over the next 6-12 months.
* Neutral: Expected stock price movement between -5% and +5% relative to the CSI 300 Index over the next 6-12 months.
* Avoid: Expected stock price decline of >5% relative to the CSI 300 Index over the next 6-12 months.

General Disclaimer:
This report is prepared by Chengtong Securities Co., Ltd. ("Chengtong Securities") for its institutional and individual clients. It is confidential and intended solely for the recipient. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Chengtong Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Investors should make their own investment decisions based on their independent judgment and consult with their financial advisors if necessary. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Copyright:
All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of Chengtong Securities.


End of Report