Equity Research: LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH)
Turning the Corner: BC Capacity Ramp-Up Drives Path to Profitability in 4Q 2025
Date: October 2025
Sector: Renewable Energy / Photovoltaics
Analyst: Institutional Research Team
Source Data: Southwest Securities, Wind, Company Filings
Executive Summary
LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), the global leader in monocrystalline silicon wafers and modules, is demonstrating clear signs of operational stabilization and strategic pivot success amidst a challenging industry backdrop. In the first half of 2025 (1H25), the company reported revenue of RMB 32.81 billion (-14.8% YoY) and a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.57 billion. However, this represents a significant 50.9% year-over-year reduction in losses, signaling a robust turnaround trajectory. Crucially, the second quarter (2Q25) alone saw a net loss narrow to RMB 1.13 billion, a 60.7% YoY improvement and a 21.1% sequential reduction, indicating that the worst of the profitability compression may have passed.
The core investment thesis rests on LONGi’s aggressive and successful transition to Back Contact (BC) technology. Despite industry-wide price wars that pushed module prices below cost lines, LONGi has maintained shipment volumes while upgrading its product mix. The company’s HPBC 2.0 technology is gaining traction, with module mass production efficiency reaching 24.8%. With BC component shipments hitting ~4GW in 1H25 and HPBC 2.0 battery capacity reaching 24GW by period end, LONGi is positioning itself to capture premium margins in both centralized and distributed markets.
We project that LONGi will achieve a net profit turnaround in 4Q 2025, driven by the scaling of high-efficiency BC products, cost reductions from technological upgrades, and a gradual normalization of silicon wafer prices. Our financial model forecasts a return to profitability in 2026, with estimated net profits of RMB 2.75 billion in 2026 and RMB 5.09 billion in 2027. While near-term headwinds persist due to macro-policy risks and intense competition, LONGi’s differentiated technology portfolio and strong balance sheet provide a defensive moat and an offensive growth engine. We maintain a constructive view on the stock for long-term institutional investors seeking exposure to the next generation of PV technology leaders.
Key Takeaways
1. Financial Performance: Significant Loss Narrowing and Sequential Improvement
The financial results for 1H25 and 2Q25 reflect a company navigating through the trough of the solar cycle while actively restructuring its cost base and product portfolio.
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1H25 Overview:
- Revenue: RMB 32.81 billion, down 14.8% YoY. The decline is primarily attributed to the sharp drop in average selling prices (ASPs) across the PV supply chain, rather than a collapse in demand.
- Net Profit: A loss of RMB 2.57 billion, but notably a 50.9% improvement compared to the same period last year.
- Non-GAAP Net Profit: A loss of RMB 3.30 billion, improving 37.4% YoY. This suggests that while one-off items impacted the bottom line, the core operational bleeding is slowing.
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2Q25 Momentum:
- Revenue: RMB 19.16 billion, down 8.1% YoY but up 40.3% Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ). The sequential revenue jump indicates stronger delivery confirmations and potentially better pricing power or mix shift in Q2.
- Net Profit: A loss of RMB 1.13 billion. This is a 60.7% YoY reduction in losses and a 21.1% QoQ reduction.
- Non-GAAP Net Profit: A loss of RMB 1.32 billion, down 53.8% YoY and 33.4% QoQ.
Interpretation: The divergence between revenue decline and profit improvement highlights effective cost management and a shift towards higher-value products. The sequential improvement in both top-line and bottom-line metrics in Q2 is a critical leading indicator that the company is gaining momentum heading into the traditionally stronger second half of the year.
| Metric | 1H 2024 | 1H 2025 | YoY Change | 2Q 2025 | QoQ Change (vs 1Q25 implied) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB bn) | ~38.5 | 32.81 | -14.8% | 19.16 | +40.3% |
| Net Profit (RMB bn) | -5.24 | -2.57 | +50.9% (Loss Narrowing) | -1.13 | +21.1% (Loss Narrowing) |
| Non-GAAP Net Profit (RMB bn) | -5.28 | -3.30 | +37.4% (Loss Narrowing) | -1.32 | +33.4% (Loss Narrowing) |
(Note: 1H2024 figures derived from YoY change percentages provided in the report)
2. Operational Resilience: Shipments Rise Despite Price Collapse
In a market characterized by severe overcapacity and predatory pricing, LONGi has prioritized market share and customer retention over short-term margin preservation, a strategy that appears to be paying off in terms of volume resilience.
- Silicon Wafer Shipments: Totalled 52.08 GW in 1H25. Of this, 24.72 GW were sold externally. This demonstrates LONGi’s continued dominance in the upstream wafer segment, although external sales are moderated by internal consumption for its own module production.
- Module & Cell Shipments: Totalled 41.85 GW.
- Module Shipments: 39.57 GW.
- BC Module Shipments: Approximately 4 GW.
- Strategic Insight: The fact that shipments increased YoY while revenue decreased confirms the "volume up, price down" dynamic. However, the introduction of 4GW of BC modules—a premium product segment—suggests that LONGi is successfully beginning to decouple its volume growth from the commoditized PERC/TopCon price war. The ability to sell 4GW of BC modules in a nascent stage indicates strong customer acceptance and effective sales channel deployment.
3. Strategic Pivot: BC Technology as the Core Differentiator
LONGi’s bet on Back Contact (BC) technology is no longer just a R&D project; it is becoming the central pillar of its commercial strategy. The company is leveraging its "bottom-line thinking" to expand counter-cyclically, building a moat through technological differentiation.
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HPBC 2.0 Deployment:
- Capacity Status: By the end of the reporting period, LONGi’s self-owned HPBC 2.0 battery capacity reached 24 GW.
- Production Ramp-up: Facilities in Xixian New Area and Tongchuan (Shaanxi Province) have begun gradual production. The Weibei project is progressing steadily.
- Collaborative Capacity: Joint ventures/collaborative capacities with partners like Yingfa Derui and Pingmei Longji have also started gradual production. This asset-light/collaborative approach allows for faster scaling with reduced capital intensity risk.
- Target: By the end of 2025, HPBC 2.0 high-efficiency capacity is expected to account for >60% of the company’s total battery capacity. This rapid structural upgrade positions LONGi to lead the industry in efficiency metrics.
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Product Portfolio & Efficiency:
- Centralized Market: Launched the Hi-MO 9 series, based on high-quality Tai Rui silicon wafers and HPBC 2.0 technology.
- Distributed Market: Launched the Hi-MO X10 series.
- Efficiency Benchmark: Mass production module efficiency has reached 24.8%. This is a significant leap over standard PERC (~21%) and competitive with advanced TopCon (~22.5-23%), offering tangible value propositions in terms of Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for end-users.
- Market Acceptance: BC modules have been included in domestic large-capacity centralized procurement bids. This is a critical validation, as state-owned enterprises and large utilities are typically conservative in adopting new technologies. Inclusion in these bids signals that HPBC 2.0’s reliability and efficiency gains are recognized by key decision-makers.
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Next-Gen Innovation: HIBC Technology:
- LONGi has pioneered HIBC (Heterojunction Interdigitated Back Contact) technology, combining the high-quality passivation of HIT (Heterojunction) with BC processes.
- Performance: Using a golden size of 2382mm × 1134mm, HIBC modules achieve a power output of 700W+ and an efficiency of 25.9%.
- Target Market: High-end distributed markets (e.g., residential rooftops, commercial & industrial where space is constrained and aesthetics/premium performance matter). This creates a dual-track strategy: HPBC for mainstream/utility scale and HIBC for premium niche segments.
4. Financial Outlook & Valuation: Path to Profitability
Based on the accelerating loss narrowing in 2Q25 and the ramp-up of high-margin BC products, we revise our outlook to anticipate a return to profitability in the near term.
- Profit Forecast:
- 2025E: Net loss of RMB 2.69 billion. (An improvement from 2024A loss of RMB 8.62 billion).
- 2026E: Net profit of RMB 2.75 billion.
- 2027E: Net profit of RMB 5.09 billion.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS):
- 2025E: -RMB 0.35
- 2026E: RMB 0.36
- 2027E: RMB 0.67
- Valuation Metrics:
- P/E Ratio: As the company returns to profit, the P/E normalizes. 2026E P/E is estimated at 47x, dropping to 25x in 2027E. Given the high-growth nature of the BC transition and LONGi’s market leadership, a 25-30x P/E in 2027 is reasonable relative to historical averages for tech-leading PV firms.
- P/B Ratio: Currently trading at ~2.19x (2025E), declining to 1.94x by 2027E. This reflects the market’s cautious pricing of current losses but acknowledges the strong asset base and future earnings potential.
- ROE: Expected to turn positive in 2026 (4.30%) and improve to 7.48% in 2027, indicating improved capital efficiency.
| Financial Indicator | 2024 Actual | 2025 Estimate | 2026 Estimate | 2027 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 82,582 | 75,990 | 87,256 | 96,387 |
| YoY Growth % | -36.23% | -7.98% | +14.83% | +10.46% |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) | -8,618 | -2,687 | 2,752 | 5,088 |
| EPS (RMB) | -1.14 | -0.35 | 0.36 | 0.67 |
| ROE % | -14.13% | -4.59% | 4.30% | 7.48% |
| P/E (x) | -15 | -48 | 47 | 25 |
| P/B (x) | 2.13 | 2.19 | 2.08 | 1.94 |
Detailed Business Segment Analysis & Drivers
To understand the path to profitability, we must dissect the performance and assumptions for each key business segment. The recovery is not uniform; it is driven by specific dynamics in modules, wafers, and emerging services.
1. Solar Modules & Cells: The Engine of Recovery
This segment is the primary beneficiary of the BC technology transition. The shift from standard PERC/TopCon to HPBC/HIBC allows LONGi to command a price premium and protect margins even in a deflationary environment.
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Volume Assumptions:
- 2025E: 100 GW
- 2026E: 110 GW
- 2027E: 120 GW
- Logic: Steady growth aligned with global PV demand expansion, supported by LONGi’s strong brand and distribution network. The assumption implies LONGi maintains or slightly grows its global market share despite intense competition.
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Price Assumptions (ASP):
- 2025E: RMB 0.63/W
- 2026E: RMB 0.65/W
- 2027E: RMB 0.66/W
- Logic: Prices are assumed to stabilize and slightly increase. This is predicated on two factors: (1) Industry consolidation eliminating inefficient capacity, reducing supply glut; (2) The higher mix of BC modules, which carry a premium over standard modules. The modest price increase reflects a normalization rather than a boom, consistent with a mature market phase.
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Gross Margin Trajectory:
- 2024A: 6.27%
- 2025E: 7.13%
- 2026E: 12.60%
- 2027E: 14.80%
- Driver: The margin expansion is the most critical variable. The jump from ~7% in 2025 to ~12.6% in 2026 is driven by:
- Cost Reduction: HPBC 2.0 manufacturing costs are expected to decline as yields improve and economies of scale are realized in the new Xixian/Tongchuan facilities.
- Premium Pricing: BC modules offer higher efficiency, allowing LONGi to charge more per watt, especially in markets sensitive to land/roof space constraints (Europe, Japan, high-end domestic).
- Product Mix: As BC capacity exceeds 60% of total, the average margin of the entire module division will structurally rise.
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Revenue Projection:
- 2025E: RMB 62.8 billion (-5.3% YoY)
- 2026E: RMB 72.0 billion (+14.7% YoY)
- 2027E: RMB 79.6 billion (+10.6% YoY)
- Observation: Revenue dips slightly in 2025 due to lower ASPs outweighing volume growth, but rebounds strongly in 2026 as volumes grow and prices stabilize.
2. Silicon Wafers & Rods: From Drag to Contributor
The wafer segment has been a significant drag on profitability due to severe oversupply and prices falling below cash costs. However, the outlook is improving as the industry undergoes necessary clearance.
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Volume Assumptions:
- 2025E: 50 GW
- 2026E: 60 GW
- 2027E: 70 GW
- Logic: External sales are expected to grow as LONGi optimizes its internal vs. external allocation. With module capacity expanding, internal use remains high, but external sales benefit from LONGi’s reputation for quality ("Tai Rui" wafers).
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Price Assumptions (ASP):
- 2025E: RMB 0.14/W
- 2026E: RMB 0.15/W
- 2027E: RMB 0.15/W
- Logic: Prices are assumed to bottom out in 2025 and stabilize in 2026-2027. This assumes that "anti-involution" (anti-cutthroat competition) efforts by industry leaders and government guidance on capacity discipline begin to take effect, restoring price floors above cash costs.
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Gross Margin Trajectory:
- 2024A: -14.31% (Severe Losses)
- 2025E: -1.68% (Near Breakeven)
- 2026E: 12.93% (Healthy Profit)
- 2027E: 17.44% (Strong Profit)
- Driver: The turnaround from negative to double-digit positive margins is aggressive but plausible if:
- Supply Side Clearing: Smaller, less efficient wafer manufacturers exit the market, reducing supply.
- Technology Premium: LONGi’s high-quality N-type wafers required for BC/HJT cells command a premium over standard P-type or lower-quality N-type wafers.
- Cost Control: Continuous improvements in crystal pulling and slicing efficiency.
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Revenue Projection:
- 2025E: RMB 7.06 billion (-14.0% YoY)
- 2026E: RMB 9.12 billion (+29.2% YoY)
- 2027E: RMB 10.64 billion (+16.7% YoY)
- Observation: The sharp revenue decline in 2025 reflects the low price environment. The rebound in 2026 is driven by both volume growth and price stabilization.
3. Power Station Construction & Services: Strategic Downsizing
- Revenue Assumption: Flat at RMB 3.5 billion for 2025-2027.
- Gross Margin: Assumed at 15.0%.
- Logic: LONGi is likely shifting focus away from heavy-asset power station development to conserve cash and focus on manufacturing excellence. The revenue drop from 2024 (RMB 6.34 billion) to 2025 (RMB 3.5 billion) reflects this strategic contraction. The stable, moderate margin provides a steady, low-risk income stream without significant capital expenditure requirements.
4. Power Generation & Other Businesses
- Power Generation: Revenue stabilized at RMB 600 million with a high gross margin of 55%. This represents LONGi’s existing operational assets, providing predictable cash flow.
- Other Businesses: Revenue stabilized at RMB 2 billion with a 40% margin. This likely includes equipment sales, technical services, and other ancillary activities. The high margin suggests these are specialized, high-value-add services.
Core Investment Logic: Why LONGi Now?
For institutional investors, the case for LONGi Green Energy in late 2025 is built on three pillars: Technological Alpha, Cyclical Turnaround, and Financial Resilience.
1. Technological Alpha: The BC Moat
The PV industry is transitioning from a period of homogeneous competition (PERC) to heterogeneous competition (TopCon vs. BC vs. HJT). LONGi’s decisive bet on BC technology is starting to yield results.
- Differentiation: In a market where most competitors are fighting on cost alone with similar TopCon products, LONGi’s HPBC 2.0 offers a distinct value proposition: higher efficiency (24.8% mass prod.), better aesthetics (no front grid lines), and potentially better temperature coefficients. This allows LONGi to escape the pure commodity trap.
- First-Mover Advantage in Scale: With 24GW of HPBC 2.0 capacity already online and targeting >60% mix by year-end, LONGi is achieving scale faster than many rivals. This scale drives down unit costs through learning curves and supply chain leverage, creating a cost advantage that complements the price premium.
- HIBC Optionality: The development of HIBC (25.9% efficiency) provides a "call option" on the ultra-premium market. If the market demands even higher efficiency (e.g., for limited roof spaces in Europe/Japan), LONGi is uniquely positioned to serve it.
2. Cyclical Turnaround: Bottoming Out
The solar industry has undergone a brutal correction in 2023-2024. Prices across the supply chain have fallen below cash costs for many producers, forcing capacity closures and delaying new expansions.
- Supply-Demand Rebalancing: We are approaching the inflection point where supply growth slows and demand continues to grow (driven by global energy transition goals). LONGi’s financials reflect this bottoming process. The narrowing losses in 1H25 and 2Q25 are early signals that the price decline has largely played out.
- Margin Expansion Leverage: As prices stabilize, companies with lower costs and higher-value products (like LONGi with BC) will see disproportionate margin expansion. Our model projects module margins rising from 7.1% to 14.8% over two years. This operating leverage will drive significant earnings growth in 2026-2027.
3. Financial Resilience: Balance Sheet Strength
In a downturn, balance sheet strength is survival. LONGi remains one of the most financially robust players in the industry.
- Cash Position: As of the latest data, LONGi holds substantial cash reserves (Monetary Funds: ~RMB 50.4 billion in 2025E). This liquidity allows the company to:
- Continue R&D and CapEx for BC capacity while competitors cut back.
- Weather prolonged periods of negative cash flow if necessary.
- Pursue strategic M&A or partnerships (e.g., with Yingfa Derui) to accelerate growth.
- Debt Management: The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to decline from 59.8% (2024) to 54.6% (2027). The current ratio remains healthy (>1.7), indicating strong short-term solvency.
- Cash Flow Turnaround: Operating Cash Flow is projected to turn positive in 2025 (RMB 1.29 billion) and grow significantly in 2026 (RMB 3.72 billion) and 2027 (RMB 6.29 billion). This self-funding capability reduces reliance on external financing and supports sustainable growth.
Risks / Headwinds
While the outlook is improving, investors must remain cognizant of the significant risks that could derail the turnaround thesis.
1. Geopolitical & Trade Policy Risks (High Impact)
- US Sanctions & Tariffs: The US remains a critical high-margin market. Any escalation in trade barriers, such as new tariffs on Southeast Asian imports (where LONGi has exposure) or direct sanctions on Xinjiang-related supply chains, could severely impact LONGi’s ability to serve the US market. The "Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act" (UFLPA) continues to pose compliance challenges.
- European Trade Measures: The EU is investigating Chinese solar subsidies and may impose tariffs or local content requirements. Since Europe is a key market for premium BC modules, any trade friction here would directly hit LONGi’s highest-margin sales.
- Mitigation: LONGi is diversifying its manufacturing footprint and focusing on non-US/non-EU markets, but these markets often have lower margins.
2. Technology Execution Risk (Medium-High Impact)
- BC Yield & Cost: The transition to BC is complex. If LONGi fails to achieve targeted yields (reducing waste) or cost reductions in HPBC 2.0 production, the anticipated margin expansion will not materialize. Competitors like Aiko Solar are also scaling BC, and if they achieve lower costs faster, LONGi’s premium could erode.
- HIBC Commercialization: HIBC is still in the early stages. If the 25.9% efficiency cannot be achieved at scale with acceptable yields, the high-end strategy may falter.
- Technology Disruption: While BC is currently favored, rapid advancements in TopCon or HJT could narrow the efficiency gap, reducing the willingness of customers to pay a premium for BC.
3. Industry Competition & Price Wars (Medium Impact)
- Persistent Overcapacity: If the industry fails to clear excess capacity effectively, prices could remain depressed for longer than expected. This would delay the return to profitability for the wafer segment and compress module margins.
- "Involution": Aggressive pricing by competitors to gain market share could force LONGi to lower prices, undermining the premium positioning of BC modules.
4. Financial & Operational Risks (Medium Impact)
- Exchange Rate Fluctuations: LONGi has significant overseas revenue. Appreciation of the RMB against the USD/EUR could negatively impact reported revenues and margins.
- Investment Income Volatility: The company holds various investments. Fluctuations in the value of these assets or changes in dividend income from investees can cause volatility in net profit, obscuring operational performance.
- Overseas Operations: Managing operations in diverse regulatory and cultural environments (e.g., Vietnam, Malaysia, US) poses execution risks.
Rating / Sector Outlook
Sector Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic
The global photovoltaic sector is entering a phase of consolidation and technological differentiation.
* Demand: Global PV demand remains robust, driven by climate goals, energy security concerns, and the declining LCOE of solar. We expect annual installations to continue growing at a double-digit pace.
* Supply: The era of unrestricted capacity expansion is ending. Policy interventions in China and financial pressure on weaker players are leading to a slower rate of new capacity additions. This should help stabilize prices in 2025-2026.
* Technology: The shift from P-type to N-type (TopCon, BC, HJT) is complete. The next battle is for efficiency leadership. BC technology is emerging as a strong contender for the premium segment, particularly in distributed generation.
Sector Rating: Overweight (for leaders with technology advantages). Investors should favor companies with strong balance sheets, proprietary technology (like BC), and global distribution networks. Avoid pure-play manufacturers with high costs and no technological differentiation.
Company Rating: Buy / Accumulate
Recommendation: Buy (Implicit based on positive outlook and turnaround trajectory)
Target Price Context:
While a specific target price is not explicitly derived in the source text via DCF or comparable multiples, the valuation metrics suggest upside.
* Current P/B of ~2.2x is reasonable for a tech leader returning to growth.
* Forward P/E of 25x in 2027 is attractive for a company with projected earnings growth of ~85% CAGR from 2025-2027.
* The stock has traded in a range of RMB 12.73 - 20.46 over the past 52 weeks. Given the improving fundamentals, a re-rating towards the upper end of this range or higher is plausible as profitability returns.
Investment Horizon: 12-24 Months. The thesis plays out as BC capacity ramps in late 2025 and profits materialize in 2026.
Investment View & Strategy
1. The Turnaround Play
LONGi represents a classic "turnaround" investment opportunity. The market has priced in the pain of 2024 and early 2025. The key catalyst for re-rating is the confirmation of profitability in 4Q 2025 and full-year 2026.
- Trigger 1: Quarterly reports showing consecutive quarters of loss narrowing and eventual net profit positivity.
- Trigger 2: Announcement of BC module ASPs holding firm or increasing, demonstrating pricing power.
- Trigger 3: Successful inclusion and award wins in major domestic and international tenders for HPBC 2.0 modules.
2. The Technology Premium
Investors should view LONGi not just as a manufacturer, but as a technology platform. The value of the BC patent portfolio, manufacturing know-how, and brand recognition in the premium segment is not fully reflected in current valuations.
- Strategy: Accumulate shares on dips caused by broader market sentiment or temporary geopolitical noise. The long-term trend of BC adoption is intact.
- Monitoring: Closely watch the gross margin trends in the module segment. If margins expand faster than expected (e.g., exceeding 10% in 2025), it would signal stronger-than-expected pricing power and cost control, warranting an upward revision in estimates.
3. Risk-Adjusted Positioning
Given the risks, a phased entry strategy is recommended.
* Phase 1 (Now): Establish a core position based on the 2Q25 loss-narrowing data and BC capacity ramp.
* Phase 2 (Late 2025): Add to the position if 3Q25 results show further improvement and management guides for a 4Q profit.
* Hedging: Monitor USD/CNY exchange rates and US/EU trade policy developments. Consider hedging currency exposure if necessary.
4. Comparative Advantage
Compared to peers:
* Vs. JinkoSolar/Trina: LONGi has a more distinct technology differentiation (BC vs. TopCon). While TopCon is currently dominant, BC offers a clearer path to higher efficiencies (>25%).
* Vs. Aiko Solar: LONGi has a much larger scale, broader product portfolio (wafers + modules), and stronger balance sheet. Aiko is a pure-play BC competitor but lacks LONGi’s vertical integration and financial depth.
* Vs. JA Solar: Similar scale, but LONGi’s aggressive BC push gives it a potential edge in the premium segment.
Financial Model Deep Dive
To support our investment view, we analyze the key assumptions and sensitivities in our financial model.
Revenue Build-Up
| Segment | 2024A (RMB mn) | 2025E (RMB mn) | 2026E (RMB mn) | 2027E (RMB mn) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modules | 66,334 | 62,832 | 72,035 | 79,646 | Volume growth + BC Mix |
| Wafers | 8,207 | 7,058 | 9,121 | 10,641 | Price Stabilization |
| Stations | 6,343 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,500 | Strategic Exit |
| Power | - | 600 | 600 | 600 | Stable Assets |
| Other | 1,697 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | Services |
| Total | 82,582 | 75,990 | 87,256 | 96,387 |
- Sensitivity: A 5% increase in Module ASP in 2026 would add ~RMB 3.6 billion to revenue and significantly boost net profit due to operating leverage. Conversely, a 5% decrease in Wafer prices would hurt 2025 profitability but has less impact in 2026-27 as margins normalize.
Cost & Margin Structure
- COGS: Expected to decrease as a percentage of revenue due to the shift to higher-value BC products and efficiency gains.
- OpEx: Sales and Administrative expenses are managed tightly. Sales expense ratio is expected to remain stable around 3.5%, while Admin expense ratio declines as revenue grows.
- R&D: Although not explicitly broken out in the summary tables, LONGi’s high R&D spend is implicit in its technology leadership. This is a necessary investment to maintain the BC advantage.
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
- CapEx: Significant CapEx is planned for 2025-2026 (RMB 8 billion annually) to build BC capacity. This is funded by operating cash flow and existing cash reserves, minimizing dilution.
- Dividends: The company has a history of dividends. While paused during loss-making periods, the return to profit in 2026 should allow for resumed dividend payments, enhancing total return for investors.
Conclusion
LONGi Green Energy is navigating the most challenging period in the solar industry’s recent history with strategic clarity and operational discipline. The 50.9% reduction in losses in 1H25 and the sequential improvement in 2Q25 are not just statistical artifacts; they are evidence of a successful strategic pivot.
The company’s commitment to BC technology is differentiating it from the pack. With 24GW of HPBC 2.0 capacity online and a target of >60% BC mix by year-end, LONGi is well-positioned to capture the premium segment of the market. The launch of Hi-MO 9 and Hi-MO X10 products, along with the pioneering HIBC technology, underscores its innovation pipeline.
Financially, the path to profitability is clear. We forecast a net profit of RMB 2.75 billion in 2026 and RMB 5.09 billion in 2027, driven by margin expansion in modules and a recovery in wafer profitability. The balance sheet remains strong, providing the flexibility to invest in growth while weathering residual industry volatility.
Risks related to geopolitics and technology execution are real but manageable given LONGi’s scale and diversification. For institutional investors, LONGi offers a compelling risk-reward profile: downside protection from its strong balance sheet and market leadership, and upside potential from the successful commercialization of BC technology and the industry’s cyclical recovery.
We recommend investors accumulate positions in LONGi Green Energy, viewing the current valuation as an attractive entry point before the full realization of its BC-driven profitability in 2026-2027.
Appendix: Detailed Financial Tables
Income Statement Forecast (RMB Million)
| Item | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 82,582 | 75,990 | 87,256 | 96,387 |
| Cost of Revenue | 76,440 | 69,975 | 75,347 | 81,090 |
| Gross Profit | 6,142 | 6,015 | 11,909 | 15,297 |
| Gross Margin % | 7.44% | 7.92% | 13.65% | 15.87% |
| Selling Expenses | 2,906 | 2,660 | 2,618 | 2,892 |
| Admin Expenses | 5,245 | 4,559 | 5,235 | 5,783 |
| Finance Costs | -237 | 52 | 87 | -39 |
| Asset Impairment | -8,701 | -1,500 | -500 | -500 |
| Operating Profit | -9,755 | -3,061 | 3,120 | 5,775 |
| Non-Operating Items | -451 | -50 | -50 | -50 |
| Pre-Tax Profit | -10,206 | -3,111 | 3,070 | 5,725 |
| Income Tax | -1,528 | -373 | 368 | 687 |
| Net Profit | -8,677 | -2,737 | 2,702 | 5,038 |
| Minority Interest | -60 | -50 | -50 | -50 |
| Net Profit (Attrib.) | -8,618 | -2,687 | 2,752 | 5,088 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (RMB Million)
| Item | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | 152,845 | 135,710 | 141,375 | 148,359 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 53,157 | 50,389 | 46,654 | 46,533 |
| Inventory | 13,382 | 8,731 | 11,277 | 12,139 |
| Fixed Assets | 40,604 | 44,970 | 48,755 | 50,069 |
| Total Liabilities | 91,444 | 76,101 | 78,527 | 81,023 |
| Short-term Debt | 300 | 200 | 200 | 200 |
| Long-term Debt | 13,949 | 18,949 | 19,049 | 19,149 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 61,401 | 59,608 | 62,848 | 67,336 |
| Debt-to-Asset Ratio | 59.83% | 56.08% | 55.55% | 54.61% |
Cash Flow Statement Forecast (RMB Million)
| Item | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -4,725 | 1,287 | 3,716 | 6,290 |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7,232 | -7,945 | -8,002 | -5,999 |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8,297 | 3,890 | 551 | -411 |
| Net Change in Cash | -3,474 | -2,768 | -3,735 | -121 |
(Note: All data sourced from Southwest Securities Research Report. Forecasts are subject to market conditions and company execution.)
Disclaimer
This report is prepared by the Institutional Research Team based on data provided by Southwest Securities and public filings. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.