Research report

Overseas expansion builds growth space; technological advantages highlight leading profitability resilience

Published 2025-10-28 · Sinolink Securities · Yao Yao
Source: 002865_15327.html

Overseas expansion builds growth space; technological advantages highlight leading profitability resilience

002865.SZBuyPhotovoltaic Equipment
Date2025-10-28
InstitutionSinolink Securities
AnalystsYao Yao
RatingBuy
IndustryPhotovoltaic Equipment
StockJunda Shares (002865)
Report typeStock

Equity Research: Junda Shares (002865.SZ)

Overseas Expansion Constructs Growth Trajectory; Technological Moat Underpins Profitability Resilience

Date: October 29, 2025
Sector: Renewable Energy / Photovoltaics (PV)
Analyst: Institutional Research Team
Current Price: CNY 40.25
Rating: BUY (Maintained)
Target Price Implied Upside: Significant upside driven by earnings inflection in 2026-2027


Executive Summary

Junda Shares released its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 28, 2025. While the top-line revenue continues to face headwinds from domestic market contraction and industry-wide destocking, the company demonstrated remarkable operational resilience through its strategic pivot toward international markets and technological leadership. In 3Q25, Junda achieved a quarterly revenue of CNY 2.02 billion, representing a sequential growth of 12.9%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY 160 million, a slight sequential improvement of 1.9%. These figures align with market expectations, signaling that the bottom of the earnings cycle may be nearing.

The core investment thesis for Junda Shares rests on two pivotal pillars: globalized capacity deployment and technological cost leadership. Amidst the Chinese government’s intensified "anti-involution" (anti-cutthroat competition) policies aimed at clearing outdated capacity and stabilizing supply chain prices, Junda is uniquely positioned to benefit. The company has successfully diversified its revenue base, with overseas sales accounting for 51% of total revenue in the first nine months of 2025. Furthermore, strategic partnerships in key markets such as Turkey, India, and Europe are transitioning from planning to execution, promising high-margin contributions in the near future.

Simultaneously, Junda’s aggressive adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies—including half-cell edge passivation, wave-shaped back fields, and ultra-dense fine grids—has allowed it to mitigate rising input costs. Notably, despite a 22% surge in silver prices in 3Q25, the company’s non-silicon cost per watt increased by only 6%, reaching approximately CNY 0.14/W. This cost control capability underscores its status as a industry leader with superior profitability resilience.

We maintain our BUY rating on Junda Shares. We have adjusted our net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to CNY -558 million, CNY 577 million, and CNY 1.02 billion, respectively. The projected turnaround in 2026 is driven by the normalization of PV module prices, the full ramp-up of overseas high-efficiency battery capacity, and the continued consolidation of the domestic supply chain which favors tier-1 manufacturers. Investors should view the current valuation as an attractive entry point ahead of the anticipated earnings inflection in 2026.


Key Takeaways

1. Financial Performance: Stabilization Amidst Sectoral Headwinds

Revenue and Profitability Trends
In the first three quarters of 2025, Junda Shares reported total operating revenue of CNY 5.68 billion, a year-over-year (YoY) decline of 30.7%. The net loss attributable to parent company shareholders stood at CNY 420 million, a marginal YoY decrease in loss magnitude of 0.5%. While the year-on-year comparisons reflect the severe downturn in the global PV sector throughout 2024 and early 2025, the sequential data for the third quarter offers more encouraging signals of stabilization.

  • 3Q25 Revenue: CNY 2.02 billion, up 12.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ).
  • 3Q25 Net Loss: CNY 160 million, improving by 1.9% QoQ.

The sequential improvement in both revenue and net loss indicates that the company’s strategic adjustments are beginning to yield tangible results. The revenue growth in Q3, despite a traditionally sluggish domestic demand environment, was primarily driven by robust overseas shipments and the successful penetration of high-value international markets.

Table 1: Key Financial Metrics (2023-2027E)

Metric (CNY Million) 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Estimate 2026 Estimate 2027 Estimate
Operating Revenue 18,657 9,952 7,984 9,047 10,906
YoY Growth (%) 60.90% -46.66% -19.77% 13.31% 20.55%
Net Profit (Attrib.) 816 -591 -558 577 1,020
YoY Growth (%) 13.77% -172.47% 5.62% N/A 76.87%
EPS (Diluted) 3.587 -2.580 -1.907 1.971 3.485
ROE (Diluted) 17.32% -15.21% -16.75% 15.57% 23.33%
P/E Ratio 21.60 -19.81 -21.11 20.43 11.55
P/B Ratio 3.74 3.01 3.54 3.18 2.69

Source: Company Annual Reports, Guojin Securities Institute Estimates

The forecasted return to profitability in 2026 (CNY 577 million net profit) and strong growth in 2027 (CNY 1.02 billion) reflects our confidence in the cyclical recovery of the PV industry and Junda’s specific competitive advantages. The expected P/E ratio of 20.43x in 2026 and 11.55x in 2027 suggests that the stock is currently priced for significant future earnings growth, offering an attractive risk-reward profile for long-term institutional investors.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Health
Operating cash flow remains a critical monitorable. In 2024, the company generated CNY 654 million in net operating cash flow. For 2025E, this is projected to tighten to CNY 30 million due to ongoing working capital adjustments and inventory management during the transition phase. However, a robust recovery is expected in 2026E (CNY 776 million) and 2027E (CNY 1.14 billion).

The balance sheet shows a deliberate shift in asset structure. Current assets are projected to increase from 38.5% of total assets in 2024 to 52.1% in 2027, indicating improved liquidity and flexibility. Conversely, fixed assets as a percentage of total assets are expected to decline from 51.5% in 2024 to 34.4% in 2027, reflecting a move towards asset-light operations in certain segments and the depreciation of older capacities, while new high-efficiency capacities are optimized for higher turnover.

2. Strategic Pivot: Overseas Markets as the Primary Growth Engine

The most significant structural change in Junda’s business model is the rapid expansion of its international footprint. This strategy is not merely a response to domestic saturation but a proactive capture of global localization trends.

A. Surge in Battery Cell Exports
Global demand for high-efficiency solar components is shifting towards localized production to mitigate trade barriers and enhance energy security. This trend has created a substantial export opportunity for Chinese battery cell manufacturers, who possess a technological and cost advantage over emerging local producers in other regions.

  • Industry Context: According to Gaixi Intelligence statistics, China’s solar battery cell exports reached 75.9 GW in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a staggering YoY increase of 72.1%. This data point validates the strong external demand for Chinese PV technology.
  • Junda’s Performance: Capitalizing on this tailwind, Junda’s overseas sales accounted for 51% of its total revenue in 9M2025. This marks a historic shift, where international markets have become the dominant revenue driver, insulating the company from the intense price wars and demand fluctuations in the domestic Chinese market.

B. Strategic Geographic Diversification
Junda has moved beyond simple export transactions to establish deep-rooted presence in key strategic markets:

  1. Turkey: In 3Q2025, Junda signed a strategic cooperation agreement with a local Turkish module customer. This partnership is coupled with the active advancement of high-efficiency battery capacity construction in the region. The increase in long-term equity investments by CNY 92.69 million in Q3 reflects the capital commitment to this venture. Turkey serves as a critical bridge between Europe and Asia, offering favorable trade terms and access to the European market without some of the tariff burdens faced by direct exports from China.
  2. India: The company has maintained steady shipments to India, a market with massive renewable energy targets but limited domestic high-efficiency cell manufacturing capacity. Junda’s ability to navigate India’s complex regulatory environment (such as ALMM lists) positions it as a preferred supplier.
  3. Europe: Long-term cultivation of the European market has resulted in consistent出货 (shipments), benefiting from the EU’s REPowerEU plan and the urgent need for energy independence.

C. Future Earnings Contribution from Overseas Capacity
The deployment of high-profit overseas battery capacity is expected to be a major contributor to future earnings. Unlike domestic operations, which are currently grappling with negative margins due to oversupply, overseas facilities can command premium pricing due to:
* Lower local competition.
* Higher willingness to pay for reliable, high-efficiency supply.
* Potential subsidies or incentives for local green manufacturing.

As these overseas capacities come online and ramp up in 2026 and 2027, they will significantly improve the company’s overall gross margin mix. The strategic timing of this expansion coincides with the expected recovery in global PV demand, creating a powerful synergy for revenue and profit growth.

3. Industry Dynamics: The "Anti-Involution" Policy and Supply Chain Repair

The Chinese PV industry has been characterized by "involution" (neijuan)—a term describing destructive, cutthroat competition where companies slash prices below cost to gain market share, leading to widespread losses and potential systemic risk. In 3Q2025, a decisive shift occurred with the intervention of multiple national ministries.

A. Policy Intervention and Capacity Consolidation
Government bodies issued guidelines and documents aimed at "maintaining good market price order" and "promoting the orderly exit of backward capacity." This policy framework encourages:
* Industry Self-Discipline: Leading enterprises are coordinating to limit low-price bidding and stabilize market expectations.
* Capacity Clearance: Inefficient, older production lines are being shut down or upgraded, reducing the overall supply glut.
* Integration Acceleration: The industry is moving towards consolidation, where technologically advanced and financially robust players like Junda gain market share at the expense of weaker competitors.

B. Price Recovery Across the Value Chain
The immediate impact of these measures has been a noticeable repair in supply chain prices. In 3Q2025, battery cell prices saw significant rebounds:
* 182mm Cells: Price increased by 36%.
* 210mm Cells: Price increased by 24%.
* 210R Cells: Price increased by 12%.

This price recovery is crucial for restoring manufacturer margins. For Junda, which operates primarily in the battery cell segment, this directly translates to improved unit economics. The price increases are not just nominal; they reflect a rebalancing of supply and demand, supported by the reduction in effective capacity from outdated technologies.

C. Implications for Market Structure
The "anti-involution" campaign effectively raises the barrier to entry and survival. Companies lacking technological differentiation or financial resilience will be forced to exit. Junda, as a leading independent battery cell supplier, is well-positioned to capture the vacated market share. The industry is transitioning from a volume-driven growth phase to a quality-and-efficiency-driven consolidation phase, a environment where Junda’s strengths are maximized.

4. Technological Leadership: Cost Control and Next-Gen Innovation

In the PV industry, technology is the primary lever for cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. Junda’s ability to maintain profitability during a downturn is largely attributed to its superior technological capabilities and rapid implementation of advanced manufacturing processes.

A. Mitigating Input Cost Volatility
One of the most impressive demonstrations of Junda’s operational excellence in 3Q2025 was its management of non-silicon costs amidst rising raw material prices.

  • Silver Price Surge: Silver, a critical component in solar cell metallization, saw its price rise by 22% in 3Q2025. Typically, this would severely compress margins for cell manufacturers.
  • Junda’s Response: Through technological innovations, Junda limited the increase in its non-silicon cost to just 6%, bringing it to approximately CNY 0.14/W.

This decoupling of input cost inflation from production cost inflation was achieved through the mass production introduction of several key technologies:
1. Half-Cell Edge Passivation: Reduces recombination losses at the cell edges, improving efficiency and allowing for lower silver paste usage without sacrificing performance.
2. Wave-Shaped Back Field: Optimizes the rear surface of the cell to enhance light trapping and carrier collection, boosting overall conversion efficiency.
3. Ultra-Dense Fine Grids: Allows for narrower finger widths on the cell surface, reducing silver consumption while maintaining electrical conductivity.

These technologies collectively enable Junda to produce higher-efficiency cells at a lower cost per watt, providing a distinct competitive advantage in both domestic and international tenders where efficiency premiums are paid.

B. R&D Pipeline and Future Technologies
Junda is not resting on its current laurels but is actively investing in next-generation technologies to secure its long-term leadership position.

  1. Laser Edge Passivation & Multi-Slicing: The company is actively researching and introducing laser edge passivation and multi-slicing techniques. These methods further reduce material waste and enhance cell efficiency, pushing the boundaries of PERC and TOPCon technologies.
  2. xBC Battery Technology: Junda is continuously advancing the mass production preparation for xBC (Back Contact) batteries. xBC technology offers higher aesthetic appeal and efficiency, making it particularly suitable for high-end residential and commercial markets, especially in Europe and North America. Successful commercialization of xBC will open up new premium market segments for Junda.
  3. Perovskite Tandem Cells: In the realm of next-generation photovoltaics, Junda is collaborating with external research institutions on perovskite-silicon tandem cells. The laboratory efficiency of these tandem cells has reached 32.08%, a level that is leading the industry. While commercialization is still in the early stages, this achievement positions Junda at the forefront of the post-silicon era, ensuring it remains relevant as the industry evolves beyond traditional crystalline silicon limits.

C. Synergistic Layout
The company’s R&D efforts are not siloed but are integrated across battery structure, electrode compounding, and module technology collaboration. This holistic approach ensures that innovations at the cell level are fully leveraged at the module level, maximizing the value proposition for downstream customers.


Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook for Junda Shares is positive, institutional investors must consider the following risks that could impact the investment thesis:

1. Supply Chain Price Volatility

  • Risk Description: Although prices have begun to recover, the PV supply chain remains susceptible to volatility. Fluctuations in the prices of polysilicon, wafers, silver, and other raw materials can impact margins.
  • Impact: If raw material prices rise faster than the company can pass on costs to customers, or if product prices fall due to renewed oversupply, gross margins could be compressed. The recent 22% spike in silver prices is a reminder of this vulnerability, although Junda’s tech-led cost mitigation helps offset it.

2. Technological Execution Risk

  • Risk Description: The PV industry is characterized by rapid technological iteration. The transition from PERC to TOPCon, and potentially to HJT or xBC, requires significant capital expenditure and technical expertise.
  • Impact: If Junda’s rollout of new technologies (such as xBC mass production or perovskite tandem cells) faces delays, yield issues, or higher-than-expected costs, it could lose its competitive edge. Failure to keep pace with competitors’ efficiency gains could result in product obsolescence and margin erosion.

3. Intensified Industry Competition

  • Risk Description: Despite "anti-involution" policies, the PV sector remains highly competitive. Competitors may engage in aggressive pricing strategies to clear inventory or gain market share, potentially undermining the price recovery trend.
  • Impact: A resurgence of price wars could delay the expected profitability turnaround in 2026. Additionally, new entrants or expanded capacity from integrated giants could exert pressure on independent cell suppliers like Junda.

4. International Trade and Geopolitical Risks

  • Risk Description: Junda’s growing reliance on overseas markets (51% of revenue) exposes it to geopolitical tensions and trade barriers. Tariffs, anti-dumping duties, or local content requirements in key markets like the US, Europe, India, and Turkey could disrupt operations.
  • Impact: Changes in trade policy could increase the cost of exports or restrict market access. For instance, stricter rules of origin in the EU or US could disadvantage Chinese-made components. While local production in Turkey and other regions mitigates this, regulatory changes in those host countries also pose a risk.

5. Demand Uncertainty

  • Risk Description: Global PV demand is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, interest rates, and government subsidy policies. Economic slowdowns in key markets could reduce investment in renewable energy projects.
  • Impact: Lower-than-expected demand could lead to inventory buildup and downward pressure on prices, affecting revenue growth and profitability projections.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Outlook: From Chaos to Consolidation

The global photovoltaic sector is undergoing a profound structural transformation. After years of explosive growth accompanied by chaotic overcapacity, the industry is entering a phase of rationalization and consolidation.

  1. Policy-Driven Stabilization: The Chinese government’s "anti-involution" measures are a pivotal turning point. By enforcing stricter environmental and efficiency standards and encouraging mergers and acquisitions, the policy framework is designed to eliminate inefficient capacity. This will likely lead to a healthier supply-demand balance in 2026 and beyond.
  2. Globalization 2.0: The era of simple exports from China is evolving into a model of globalized manufacturing. Leading companies are building factories in key demand regions (Europe, Middle East, Southeast Asia, Americas) to bypass trade barriers and serve local markets. This trend benefits companies like Junda that are early movers in overseas capacity deployment.
  3. Technology as the Differentiator: As standard products become commoditized, technology leadership becomes the primary source of competitive advantage. High-efficiency cells (TOPCon, HJT, xBC) and next-gen technologies (Perovskite) will command premium pricing. Companies with strong R&D capabilities and rapid commercialization skills will outperform laggards.

Investment Theme: We recommend focusing on tier-1 manufacturers with strong overseas layouts and technological moats. These companies are best positioned to navigate the current downturn and capture the upside of the subsequent recovery. Junda Shares fits this profile perfectly.

Valuation Analysis

Current Valuation Metrics:
* Price: CNY 40.25
* 2025E P/E: -21.11x (Loss-making year)
* 2026E P/E: 20.43x
* 2027E P/E: 11.55x
* P/B (2025E): 3.54x

Peer Comparison & Justification:
While the 2026E P/E of ~20x may appear elevated compared to some mature industrial stocks, it is justified by:
1. High Growth Trajectory: The projected net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 represents a complete turnaround from loss to significant profitability, with a CAGR that far exceeds the broader market.
2. Technological Premium: Junda’s leadership in N-type cell technology and its promising pipeline in xBC and perovskite warrant a valuation premium over pure-play manufacturers with older technology bases.
3. Overseas Margin Expansion: The shift to higher-margin overseas sales improves the quality of earnings, supporting a higher multiple.

Looking at the 2027E P/E of 11.55x, the stock appears reasonably valued given the expected maturity of its overseas operations and the stabilization of the domestic market. For long-term investors, the current price offers an opportunity to buy into a cyclical recovery story with strong secular growth drivers.

Market Sentiment:
Recent analyst ratings show a strong consensus. Over the past six months, 20 out of 21 relevant reports have issued a "Buy" rating, with an average score of 1.00 (indicating strong buy consensus). This reflects broad institutional confidence in the company’s strategic direction and recovery prospects.


Investment View

Core Investment Logic

  1. Inflection Point in Earnings: We believe Junda Shares has passed the worst of the industry downturn. The sequential improvement in 3Q25 revenue and net loss, combined with the rebound in battery cell prices, signals that the earnings bottom is in. The projected return to profitability in 2026 is highly credible given the visible drivers of price recovery and cost control.
  2. Structural Growth via Overseas Expansion: The company’s success in pivoting to overseas markets (51% of revenue) is a game-changer. It reduces dependence on the volatile domestic market and taps into higher-margin international demand. The strategic investments in Turkey and other regions are not just defensive moves but offensive strategies to capture long-term growth. The upcoming ramp-up of overseas capacity will be a significant catalyst for margin expansion.
  3. Technological Moat Ensures Resilience: Junda’s ability to limit non-silicon cost increases to 6% despite a 22% rise in silver prices is a testament to its technological superiority. This cost advantage allows it to remain profitable (or less unprofitable) when competitors are bleeding cash. Furthermore, its leadership in next-gen technologies (32.08% perovskite tandem efficiency) ensures it remains at the forefront of the industry’s evolution.
  4. Beneficiary of Industry Consolidation: The "anti-involution" policy environment favors large, technologically advanced players like Junda. As smaller, inefficient players exit the market, Junda is poised to gain market share and pricing power. The industry shakeout is a net positive for the surviving leaders.

Strategic Recommendations for Institutional Investors

  • Accumulate on Weakness: Given the cyclical nature of the PV industry and the current transitional phase, short-term volatility is expected. Investors should use any market dips to accumulate positions, targeting the long-term recovery narrative.
  • Monitor Key Catalysts:
    • Quarterly Margins: Watch for sequential improvement in gross margins, particularly driven by overseas sales mix.
    • Overseas Capacity Ramp: Track the progress of the Turkey plant and other international projects. Any announcements regarding production start dates or initial orders will be positive catalysts.
    • Policy Implementation: Monitor the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policies. Evidence of sustained price stability and capacity closure among competitors will validate the recovery thesis.
    • Tech Breakthroughs: Keep an eye on announcements related to xBC mass production yields and perovskite tandem commercialization timelines.
  • Long-Term Hold: Junda Shares is not just a cyclical play but a structural growth story in the global energy transition. Its combination of technological leadership and global footprint makes it a core holding for portfolios exposed to the renewable energy sector.

Conclusion

Junda Shares stands out as a resilient leader in a challenging industry environment. Its strategic foresight in expanding overseas and its relentless focus on technological innovation have positioned it to thrive in the next phase of the PV cycle. While short-term financials still reflect the scars of the industry downturn, the trajectory is clearly upward. With a solid balance sheet, a robust order book in international markets, and a clear path to profitability in 2026, Junda Shares offers a compelling risk-reward profile. We reaffirm our BUY rating, confident that the company will deliver substantial value to shareholders as the global solar market matures and consolidates.


Appendix: Detailed Financial Analysis & Forecasts

1. Income Statement Analysis (2022-2027E)

The income statement reveals the dramatic swing in the company’s performance, driven by industry cycles.

  • Revenue Volatility: Revenue peaked in 2023 at CNY 18.6 billion before halving in 2024 to CNY 9.9 billion due to price collapses and demand slowdown. The forecast for 2025 (CNY 7.98 billion) reflects continued destocking and price adjustments, followed by a recovery to CNY 9.05 billion in 2026 and CNY 10.9 billion in 2027.
  • Gross Margin Compression & Recovery: Gross margin collapsed to 0.7% in 2024 and is estimated to be negative (-2.9%) in 2025 as the company clears high-cost inventory and competes in a depressed market. However, a strong recovery to 7.8% in 2026 and 13.0% in 2027 is projected, driven by price normalization and the higher-margin overseas mix.
  • Operating Expenses: Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses have been managed tightly. R&D expenses, while reduced in absolute terms from 2023 levels, remain significant relative to revenue, underscoring the commitment to innovation.
  • Net Profit Turnaround: The swing from a CNY 816 million profit in 2023 to a CNY 591 million loss in 2024 highlights the severity of the downturn. The forecasted return to profit in 2026 (CNY 577 million) and strong growth in 2027 (CNY 1.02 billion) demonstrates the operating leverage inherent in the business model once prices stabilize.

Table 2: Profitability Ratios Forecast

Year Gross Margin % Operating Margin % Net Margin % ROE %
2023 14.7% 4.0% 4.4% 17.32%
2024 0.7% n.a n.a -15.21%
2025E n.a (Neg) n.a n.a -16.75%
2026E 7.8% 2.0% 6.4% 15.57%
2027E 13.0% 7.7% 9.3% 23.33%

2. Cash Flow Statement Analysis

Cash flow management is critical during downturns.

  • Operating Cash Flow (OCF): OCF was strong in 2023 (CNY 1.98 billion) and remained positive in 2024 (CNY 654 million). The sharp drop to CNY 30 million in 2025E reflects the working capital drag from inventory adjustments and receivables management in a slow market. The recovery to CNY 776 million in 2026E and CNY 1.14 billion in 2027E indicates a return to healthy cash generation.
  • Investing Cash Flow: Capital expenditures (CapEx) were massive in 2023 (CNY 2.78 billion) as the company expanded capacity. CapEx has since moderated (CNY 442 million in 2024) and is forecasted to remain controlled (CNY 260 million in 2026/2027), suggesting the major expansion phase is complete and the focus is now on optimizing existing assets and selective overseas investments.
  • Financing Cash Flow: The company has relied on debt financing to support its operations and expansion. Net debt levels are manageable, and the improvement in operating cash flow in 2026-2027 will reduce reliance on external funding.

3. Balance Sheet Strength

  • Asset Quality: The proportion of current assets is increasing, improving liquidity. Inventory levels are being carefully managed, with inventory turnover days expected to improve from 29.0 days in 2025E to 25.0 days in 2027E.
  • Liability Management: The debt-to-asset ratio remains elevated (around 77-80%), which is typical for capital-intensive manufacturing industries during expansion phases. However, the improvement in profitability and cash flow will help deleverage the balance sheet over time. The net debt-to-equity ratio is projected to turn negative by 2027 (-25.92%), indicating a strong net cash position.
  • Equity Base: Shareholder equity has been eroded by recent losses but is expected to rebuild rapidly with the return to profitability in 2026 and 2027.

4. Sensitivity Analysis

To provide a range of outcomes, we consider the following sensitivities:

  • Bull Case: Faster-than-expected recovery in PV module prices; successful and rapid ramp-up of Turkey and other overseas facilities; breakthrough in xBC commercialization leading to premium pricing. Result: 2026 Net Profit could exceed CNY 700 million.
  • Base Case: Gradual price stabilization; steady overseas expansion; maintained cost leadership. Result: 2026 Net Profit of CNY 577 million (our base forecast).
  • Bear Case: Prolonged price war despite policy interventions; delays in overseas capacity; trade barriers restrict exports. Result: Profitability turnaround delayed to 2027; 2026 Net Profit could remain flat or slightly negative.

Even in the bear case, Junda’s technological edge and overseas diversification provide a floor to its performance relative to peers.


Final Remarks

Junda Shares represents a compelling investment opportunity in the renewable energy sector. The company has navigated the industry’s toughest period with strategic agility, pivoting to global markets and leveraging technology to protect margins. As the industry consolidates and prices stabilize, Junda is well-positioned to emerge as a stronger, more profitable leader.

For institutional investors, the key is to look beyond the transient losses of 2024-2025 and focus on the structural improvements in the business model. The 51% overseas revenue mix, the 32.08% perovskite efficiency record, and the strategic partnerships in Turkey are not just headlines; they are the foundations of sustainable long-term growth.

We recommend a BUY rating, with a target horizon of 12-18 months to capture the full effect of the earnings inflection in 2026.


Disclaimer:
This report is prepared by Guojin Securities for institutional clients only. It is based on information believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.

Contact Information:
* Shanghai: 5th Floor, Zizhu International Building, No. 1088 Fangdian Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai. Tel: 021-80234211
* Beijing: South Side, 8th Floor, News Building, No. 26 Jianguomennei Street, Dongcheng District, Beijing. Tel: 010-85950438
* Shenzhen: Room 1806, 18th Floor, Huanggang Business Center, No. 2028 Jintian Road, Futian District, Shenzhen. Tel: 0755-86695353

Analyst Certification:
The analyst(s) responsible for this report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject company(ies) and its(their) securities, and that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.