Research report

Leader in photovoltaic quartz sand, accelerated domestic substitution in semiconductors

Published 2025-10-28 · Shanxi Securities · Xiao Suo,Jia Huilin
Source: 603688.html

Leader in photovoltaic quartz sand, accelerated domestic substitution in semiconductors

603688.SHBuyNon-metallic Materials II
Date2025-10-28
InstitutionShanxi Securities
AnalystsXiao Suo,Jia Huilin
RatingBuy
IndustryNon-metallic Materials II
StockQuartz Shares (603688)
Report typeStock

Equity Research: Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH)

Date: October 28, 2025
Rating: Buy-A (Maintained)
Current Price: CNY 38.58
Target Price Implied by Valuation: Upside driven by earnings recovery in 2026-2027
Market Cap: CNY 20.90 Billion
Analysts: Xiao Suo (S0760522030006), Jia Huilin (S0760523070001)


Executive Summary

Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co., Ltd. ("Pacific Quartz" or the "Company") stands at a critical inflection point. As the domestic leader in high-purity quartz sand, the Company is navigating a transitional period characterized by the normalization of photovoltaic (PV) material prices and the accelerated penetration of semiconductor localization. While recent financial performance has been impacted by the cyclical downturn in PV quartz sand prices, we maintain a "Buy-A" rating, underpinned by three core pillars:

  1. Cyclical Bottoming in PV Sector: High-purity quartz sand prices have retreated to pre-2023 surge levels, signaling the end of the destocking phase. With global PV installations projected to grow steadily (CAGR ~10% through 2030), any marginal improvement in sand pricing or volume will yield significant operating leverage due to the Company’s fixed cost structure and dominant market position.
  2. Strategic Breakthrough in Semiconductor Localization: The Company is the only Chinese manufacturer to pass Tokyo Electron Limited (TEL) certification for high-temperature diffusion quartz tubes. Amidst intensifying US export controls and the broader AI-driven semiconductor boom, Pacific Quartz is uniquely positioned to capture the urgent demand for localized, high-end quartz consumables. The certification barrier provides a durable moat.
  3. Earnings Recovery Trajectory: We forecast a robust rebound in profitability starting in 2026. After a challenging 2024-2025, net profit is projected to grow by 151.4% in 2026 and 62.6% in 2027, driven by volume expansion in semiconductor-grade products and stabilization in PV sand margins.

The current valuation (2025E P/E of 93.9x) reflects the trough in earnings. Investors should look through the near-term noise to the structural growth engine provided by semiconductor import substitution and the long-term stability of the PV supply chain.


Key Takeaways

1. Company Overview: Integrated Leader in High-Purity Quartz

Established in 1992 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2014, Pacific Quartz has evolved into a fully integrated player in the high-purity quartz value chain.
* Product Portfolio: The Company offers a comprehensive range of products including high-purity quartz sand, quartz tubes/rods/plates, quartz crucibles, and other specialized quartz materials.
* Downstream Applications: Primary exposure to Photovoltaics (PV) and Semiconductors, with secondary exposure to fiber optics and optoelectronics.
* Ownership Structure: Controlled by Chairman and General Manager Mr. Chen Shibin and Ms. Shao Jing (acting in concert), who hold a combined 52.37% stake, ensuring stable strategic direction. Vice General Manager Mr. Chen Peirong brings deep technical expertise from Nanjing University’s Earth Sciences department.

2. Financial Performance: Navigating the Cycle

The Company’s recent financials reflect the dramatic swing in the high-purity quartz market, transitioning from a shortage-driven super-cycle (2023) to a destocking and price correction phase (2024-2025).

Metric 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E
Revenue (CNY Mn) 7,184 1,210 1,257 1,912 2,447
YoY Growth (%) 258.5% -83.2% 3.9% 52.1% 28.0%
Net Profit (CNY Mn) 5,039 334 223 559 909
YoY Growth (%) 378.9% -93.4% -33.3% 151.4% 62.6%
Gross Margin (%) 87.5% 46.0% 33.8% 45.0% 52.8%
EPS (Diluted, CNY) 9.30 0.62 0.41 1.03 1.68
P/E (x) 4.1 62.6 93.9 37.4 23.0
  • 2024 Review: Revenue fell 83.2% YoY to CNY 1.21 billion, and net profit dropped 93.4% to CNY 334 million. This was primarily due to the collapse in high-purity quartz sand prices following the resolution of the 2023 supply bottleneck.
  • 1Q-3Q 2025 Update: Revenue declined 24.5% YoY to CNY 750 million; Net profit declined 56.8% YoY to CNY 140 million. Margins compressed further as prices settled into a new equilibrium.
  • Outlook: We expect 2025 to be the bottom year for earnings. The projected recovery in 2026-2027 is driven by volume growth in higher-margin semiconductor products and a stabilization of PV sand pricing.

3. Industry Dynamics: Photovoltaic Sector

3.1 Global Demand Remains Robust

Despite short-term inventory adjustments, the long-term trajectory for global solar energy remains upward.
* Installation Forecasts: According to InfoLink, global new PV installations reached ~486 GW in 2024. For 2025, installations are estimated between 466-549 GW, corresponding to module demand of 566-650 GW.
* Long-Term View: By 2030, global new installations are projected to reach 655-763 GW, with module demand rising to 758-895 GW. Emerging markets are becoming key growth drivers, offsetting saturation in mature markets.

3.2 Quartz Crucibles: The Critical Consumable

Quartz crucibles are indispensable in the monocrystalline silicon pulling process (Czochralski method). They directly impact wafer yield and quality.
* Market Size: The Chinese PV-grade quartz crucible market was valued at CNY 9.63 billion in 2024 (2020-2024 CAGR: 46.5%). It is projected to reach CNY 25.48 billion by 2029 (2024-2029 CAGR: 21.5%).
* Sand Demand Calculation:
* Assuming 1 GW of crystal pulling requires ~80 single-crystal furnaces.
* Each crucible consumes ~100 kg of high-purity quartz sand (inner/middle/outer layers).
* 2025E Demand: Under a neutral scenario, total high-purity quartz sand demand for PV crucibles is estimated at 89,000 tons, with inner-layer sand (highest purity requirement) accounting for ~26,800 tons.

3.3 Price Environment: Bottoming Out

  • Current Prices (Oct 2025): Domestic PV quartz sand prices have fallen below pre-2023 surge levels.
    • Inner Layer: CNY 60,500/ton
    • Middle Layer: CNY 27,500/ton
    • Outer Layer: CNY 19,000/ton
    • Imported Sand: ~CNY 85,500/ton
  • Implication: The rapid price decline in 2024 was driven by downstream destocking. As inventory levels normalize and if Indian raw ore exports face restrictions, domestic sand prices have limited downside and potential for mean reversion. Given Pacific Quartz’s scale (100k ton/year capacity), even a modest price increase yields substantial profit elasticity.

4. Industry Dynamics: Semiconductor Sector

4.1 AI-Driven Secular Growth

The semiconductor industry is exhibiting strong resilience and growth, decoupling from traditional cyclicality due to AI infrastructure build-out.
* Market Size: Global semiconductor sales reached $630.5 billion in 2024 (+19.7% YoY). WSTS forecasts the market to reach $700.9 billion in 2025 (+11.2%) and $760.7 billion in 2026 (+8.5%).
* China’s Role: China remains the largest consumer, accounting for 25% of global IC sales ($143.13 billion in 2024). Crucially, China is also the largest market for semiconductor equipment, with sales reaching $49.54 billion in 2024 (42.3% of global total).

4.2 The Imperative for Localization (Import Substitution)

Geopolitical tensions have made supply chain autonomy a national priority for China.
* Trade Deficit: In 2024, China’s IC trade deficit widened to $226.1 billion (+5.7% YoY). The cumulative deficit from 2020-2024 stands at $1.214 trillion, highlighting the massive gap between domestic production and consumption.
* Policy Headwinds: The US has intensified restrictions, particularly in the second term of the Trump administration (hypothetical scenario based on report date). Recent measures include bans on EDA software sales to Chinese firms (May 2025) and expanded entity list designations. This accelerates the timeline for qualifying domestic suppliers.
* Quartz Specifics: High-purity quartz is a critical consumable in wafer fabrication (diffusion, oxidation, etching). Currently, ~90% of China’s semiconductor-grade high-purity quartz sand is imported. Every $100 million of electronic products requires ~$500,000 worth of high-purity quartz materials.

4.3 Pacific Quartz’s Competitive Moat: Certifications

Entry into the semiconductor supply chain is gated by rigorous certifications from equipment makers (OEMs) and fabs.
* TEL Certification: Pacific Quartz is one of only three companies globally (and the only Chinese company) to pass Tokyo Electron Limited (TEL) certification for semiconductor diffusion quartz tubes. It holds certifications for both high-temperature and low-temperature processes.
* LAM Research Certification: The Company has also passed LAM Research certification for low-temperature etching applications.
* Peer Comparison:
* Global Peers: Momentive (US/Germany), Heraeus (Germany), Tosoh (Japan), Qsil (Germany).
* Domestic Peer: Feilihua (also TEL/LAM certified, but focused more on quartz fibers/complex shapes).
* Advantage: Pacific Quartz’s vertical integration—from raw sand purification to finished tube/crucible manufacturing—allows for tighter quality control and cost advantages, crucial for gaining share in a cost-sensitive yet quality-critical market.

5. Investment Logic & Catalysts

A. High Operating Leverage to Quartz Sand Prices

Our sensitivity analysis demonstrates that Pacific Quartz’s profitability is highly elastic to changes in high-purity quartz sand prices. Even at conservative volume assumptions, price recovery drives outsized earnings growth.

Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Quartz Sand Price on Net Profit (CNY Billion)

Sand Price (CNY '000/ton) % Change from Base 2025E Net Profit 2026E Net Profit 2027E Net Profit
40 0% 5.7 7.3 10.4
50 +25% 6.8 9.1 13.5
60 +50% 7.8 11.0 16.7
80 +100% 9.9 14.7 22.9
120 +200% 14.2 22.2 35.4
200 +400% 22.6 37.1 60.3

Note: Base case assumes sales volumes of 15k tons (2025), 25k tons (2026), and 40k tons (2027). Current market prices for inner-layer sand are ~60.5k CNY/ton, suggesting the base case is conservative regarding price, but aggressive regarding volume mix.

B. Semiconductor Volume Ramp-Up

While current semiconductor revenue contribution is small, the certification backlog and capacity expansion (Phase III projects) position the Company for rapid scaling. As Chinese fabs aggressively qualify local suppliers to mitigate geopolitical risk, Pacific Quartz is the primary beneficiary for diffusion and etch components.

C. Supply Side Constraints

Global high-purity quartz resources are concentrated in the Spruce Pine mine (USA) and specific deposits in India.
* Competitors: Unimin (US, ~35k tons/yr) and TQC (Norway/US, ~15k tons/yr) dominate the global market. Their supply to China is estimated at 25k-29k tons annually for PV.
* Pacific Quartz: With 11,586 tons sold in 2024 and 100k tons capacity, the Company is the only viable large-scale alternative to Western suppliers. Any disruption in Indian ore exports or logistical issues with Western suppliers immediately tightens the market, benefiting Pacific Quartz.


Risks / Headwinds

Investors must consider the following risks when evaluating Pacific Quartz:

  1. High-Purity Quartz Sand Price Volatility:

    • Risk: If the destocking cycle in the PV sector prolongs, or if new capacity from competitors floods the market, sand prices could remain depressed or fall further below current levels (CNY 60.5k/ton for inner layer). This would compress gross margins, which are already down from the 87% peak in 2023.
    • Mitigation: The Company’s cost leadership and integrated model provide a floor, but earnings momentum will be sluggish until prices stabilize.
  2. Raw Material Supply Security:

    • Risk: The Company relies heavily on imported quartz ore, primarily from India. Geopolitical tensions, export bans, or quality inconsistencies in Indian ore could disrupt production. While domestic reserves exist (Xinjiang, Hubei), they are not yet fully scalable for ultra-high-purity applications without significant processing upgrades.
    • Mitigation: The Company is actively exploring diverse sourcing strategies and improving purification technologies for domestic ores.
  3. Semiconductor Adoption Rate:

    • Risk: The pace of domestic substitution in the semiconductor sector may be slower than anticipated. Wafer fabs are conservative and may hesitate to switch from established Western suppliers (Momentive, Heraeus) unless compelled by strict supply chain mandates or significant cost advantages.
    • Mitigation: The Company’s TEL and LAM certifications significantly de-risk adoption. Government policy support for "autonomous controllability" acts as a strong tailwind.
  4. Technological Disruption in PV:

    • Risk: Long-term shifts in PV technology (e.g., widespread adoption of technologies that reduce quartz crucible consumption or extend crucible life) could dampen long-term sand demand growth.
    • Mitigation: Current N-type cell trends actually require higher purity and more frequent crucible changes, supporting near-to-mid-term demand.
  5. Geopolitical Escalation:

    • Risk: Further US sanctions could target upstream materials or equipment used by Pacific Quartz, potentially restricting access to certain processing technologies or markets.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Outlook: Neutral to Positive

  • Photovoltaics: The sector is maturing. Growth is steady but no longer exponential. The key investment theme is consolidation and cost leadership. Suppliers with integrated chains and low-cost structures (like Pacific Quartz) will survive and thrive as weaker players exit.
  • Semiconductors: The sector is in a structural upcycle driven by AI and localization. The "Domestic Substitution" theme is the most powerful alpha generator in the Chinese tech hardware space. Materials suppliers with verified credentials are scarce assets.

Valuation Analysis

We compare Pacific Quartz with its primary listed peers in the quartz materials space: Feilihua (300395.SZ) and Kaide Quartz (920179.BJ).

Company Ticker Price (CNY) Market Cap (CNY Bn) EPS 2025E EPS 2026E P/E 2025E P/E 2026E
Feilihua 300395.SZ 83.44 43.58 1.58 2.17 52.8 38.5
Kaide Quartz 920179.BJ 37.51 2.81 0.79 1.07 47.5 35.1
Average 50.1 36.8
Pacific Quartz 603688.SH 38.58 20.90 1.03 1.68 37.4 23.0
  • Relative Valuation: Pacific Quartz trades at a discount to its peers on a forward P/E basis (37.4x vs 50.1x for 2025E; 23.0x vs 36.8x for 2026E).
  • Justification for Discount: The discount reflects the recent earnings collapse and higher perceived risk in the PV segment. However, given the Company’s dominant market share in sand (a higher barrier business than pure processing) and its unique semiconductor certifications, this discount appears excessive.
  • Upside Potential: As earnings recover in 2026-2027, the P/E multiple will compress rapidly. If the market re-rates the stock to the peer average P/E of ~35x in 2026, the implied price target would be significantly higher than current levels.

Recommendation: Buy-A (Maintained)

We maintain our Buy-A rating. The stock offers an asymmetric risk-reward profile:
1. Downside Protected: By the tangible asset base, cash flow generation from PV volumes, and the fact that prices are already at historical lows.
2. Upside Driven By: The optionality of semiconductor volume ramp-up and any positive surprise in quartz sand pricing.


Investment View

1. Strategic Positioning: The "Pick and Shovel" Play for Two Megatrends

Pacific Quartz is not merely a commodity producer; it is a strategic enabler for two of the most critical industrial trends of the decade: Green Energy Transition and Semiconductor Sovereignty.

  • In PV: It is the gatekeeper of silicon wafer quality. Without high-purity quartz crucibles, high-efficiency N-type wafers cannot be produced at scale. The Company’s ability to produce inner-layer sand domestically breaks the monopoly of US/Norwegian suppliers, providing Chinese PV manufacturers with supply chain security.
  • In Semiconductors: It is a rare "qualified" domestic supplier. In an era where access to advanced nodes is restricted, ensuring the supply of basic but critical consumables like quartz tubes is vital. Pacific Quartz’s TEL certification is a "golden ticket" that few Chinese firms possess.

2. Financial Inflection Point

The market is currently pricing Pacific Quartz as a distressed asset due to the 2024-2025 earnings drop. However, our analysis suggests this is a cyclical trough, not a structural decline.
* Volume Growth: Despite lower prices, physical volumes of sand sold are expected to increase (from 11.5k tons in 2024 to 15k/25k/33k tons in 2025-2027). This indicates that the Company is gaining market share and benefiting from overall industry growth.
* Margin Expansion: As the product mix shifts towards higher-value semiconductor grades and as PV sand prices stabilize, gross margins are projected to expand from 33.8% (2025E) to 52.8% (2027E). This margin recovery is the key driver for the 151% net profit growth forecast in 2026.

3. The "Scarcity" Premium

Global high-purity quartz resources are geologically scarce. The Spruce Pine mine in the US is the only other source of comparable quality at scale.
* Geopolitical Hedge: For international investors and domestic funds alike, Pacific Quartz represents a hedge against supply chain fragmentation. If trade barriers rise, the value of domestic, certified capacity increases exponentially.
* Barrier to Entry: New entrants cannot simply build a factory; they need access to specific ore bodies and years of process optimization to achieve the necessary purity levels (ppm/ppb level impurities). Pacific Quartz’s 30+ years of experience and established ore supply lines create a formidable moat.

4. Actionable Advice for Institutional Investors

  • Accumulate on Weakness: Given the high volatility associated with commodity prices, dips in the stock price driven by short-term PV sentiment offer attractive entry points.
  • Monitor Key Indicators:
    1. Quarterly Sand Prices: Watch SMM data for inner-layer sand prices. A sustained move above CNY 70,000/ton would trigger a significant upgrade in our earnings model.
    2. Semiconductor Revenue Mix: Track the percentage of revenue derived from semiconductor products in quarterly reports. An increase here signals successful commercialization of the TEL-certified products.
    3. Inventory Levels: Monitor downstream crucible maker inventory. A return to normal inventory levels will precede price stabilization.

Conclusion

Pacific Quartz is a high-quality asset temporarily obscured by cyclical headwinds. Its dominance in the PV supply chain provides a solid cash flow foundation, while its breakthroughs in the semiconductor sector offer high-growth optionality. With a robust balance sheet, clear technological leadership, and a favorable long-term industry backdrop, the Company is well-positioned to deliver superior returns as the cycle turns. We reaffirm our Buy-A rating, targeting a re-rating of the stock as earnings visibility improves in late 2025 and 2026.


Appendix: Detailed Financial Forecasts & Assumptions

Revenue Breakdown & Assumptions

1. Quartz Tubes (Semiconductor & High-End Industrial)

  • Logic: Steady demand from semiconductor fabs and high-end lighting/optics. Prices are stable due to long-term contracts.
  • Assumptions:
    • Volume: Flat at 8,000 tons/year (conservative, assuming some capacity shift to sand).
    • Price: CNY 110k/ton (2025), rising to CNY 120k/ton (2026-2027) due to product mix shift towards higher-spec semiconductor tubes.
    • Revenue: CNY 880 Mn (2025) -> CNY 960 Mn (2026/2027).
    • Gross Margin: Expanding from 36.4% to 41.7% as efficiency improves.

2. High-Purity Quartz Sand (Core Driver)

  • Logic: Volume growth driven by PV installation growth and semiconductor qualification. Price recovery assumed from current depressed levels.
  • Assumptions:
    • Volume: 15,000 tons (2025) -> 25,000 tons (2026) -> 33,000 tons (2027). This reflects the utilization of the 100k ton capacity and gradual market penetration.
    • Price: CNY 25k/ton (2025, blended avg), rising to CNY 38k/ton (2026) and CNY 45k/ton (2027). Note: These are blended averages across inner/middle/outer layers and semiconductor/PV grades. The inner-layer/semi grade commands much higher prices.
    • Revenue: CNY 375 Mn (2025) -> CNY 950 Mn (2026) -> CNY 1.485 Bn (2027).
    • Gross Margin: Recovering from 28.0% (2025) to 60.0% (2027) as prices rise and fixed costs are spread over higher volumes.

3. Polycrystalline Quartz Crucibles

  • Logic: Minor business segment, largely for internal use or niche markets.
  • Assumptions:
    • Volume: Flat at 1,160 units.
    • Price: Stable at CNY 2,600/unit.
    • Revenue: Negligible (~CNY 3 Mn).
    • Gross Margin: Low single digits, improving slightly to 14%.

Consolidated Income Statement Forecast (CNY Million)

Item 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E
Total Revenue 7,184 1,210 1,257 1,912 2,447
Cost of Goods Sold 898 654 832 1,052 1,156
Gross Profit 6,286 556 425 860 1,291
Gross Margin % 87.5% 46.0% 33.8% 45.0% 52.8%
Selling Expenses 23 17 10 16 25
Admin Expenses 97 102 101 115 122
R&D Expenses 183 123 101 105 88
Financial Expenses -18 -19 -15 -9 1
Asset Impairment -29 -18 -14 -18 -24
Fair Value Changes 30 29 39 33 34
Investment Income 31 31 22 28 27
Operating Profit 5,958 395 277 674 1,087
Non-Op Net -37 -15 -15 -15 -15
Pre-Tax Profit 5,921 380 262 659 1,072
Income Tax 870 49 39 99 161
Net Profit 5,052 331 223 560 911
Minority Interest 12 -3 0 1 2
Attributable Net Profit 5,039 334 223 559 909
Net Margin % 70.1% 27.6% 17.7% 29.3% 37.2%

Balance Sheet Highlights (CNY Million)

Item 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E
Total Assets 8,393 6,126 6,440 6,264 5,575
Current Assets 6,393 3,973 4,222 4,004 3,154
- Cash & Equiv. 2,630 616 966 765 538
- Inventory 748 985 1,096 1,008 643
Non-Current Assets 2,000 2,152 2,219 2,260 2,421
- Fixed Assets 1,084 1,377 1,505 1,637 1,787
Total Liabilities 827 326 520 1,004 875
Current Liabilities 783 277 469 952 822
Non-Current Liab. 44 49 52 52 53
Shareholders' Equity 7,529 5,766 5,886 5,224 4,662
Debt-to-Asset Ratio 9.9% 5.3% 8.1% 16.0% 15.7%

Note: The decrease in Total Assets and Equity in 2026-2027 forecasts reflects anticipated dividend payouts and share buybacks or capital efficiency improvements, as well as the depreciation of assets without proportional reinvestment in low-return projects. The Company maintains a very healthy, low-leverage balance sheet.

Cash Flow Statement Highlights (CNY Million)

Item 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E
Operating CF 3,844 829 451 723 1,721
Investing CF -977 -581 -16 -140 -286
Financing CF -685 -2,261 -85 -1,212 -1,469
Net Cash Flow Change 2,182 -2,013 350 -629 -34
  • Operating Cash Flow: Expected to recover strongly in 2027 as working capital normalizes and profits rise.
  • Investing Cash Flow: Capital expenditure remains moderate, focusing on efficiency upgrades and semiconductor-specific capacity rather than massive greenfield expansions.
  • Financing Cash Flow: Significant outflows in 2024 and projected outflows in 2026-2027 indicate aggressive return of capital to shareholders (dividends), consistent with a mature, cash-generative business model.

Deep Dive: The Semiconductor Certification Landscape

To fully appreciate the value of Pacific Quartz’s semiconductor business, it is essential to understand the rigor of the certification process.

The "TEL Certification" Barrier

Tokyo Electron Limited (TEL) is a global leader in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, particularly in coating/developing, etching, and thermal processing. Their equipment is used in nearly every major fab worldwide.
* Why it matters: If a quartz component fails inside a TEL furnace, it can contaminate an entire batch of wafers, costing millions of dollars. Therefore, TEL does not lightly certify suppliers.
* The Process:
1. Material Qualification: Rigorous testing of purity, thermal stability, and bubble content.
2. Component Testing: The quartz tube/boat must withstand repeated thermal cycles without deformation or devitrification.
3. Fab Trial: Small batch runs in customer fabs.
4. Mass Production Approval: Only after months/years of successful trials.
* Pacific Quartz’s Achievement: Passing TEL certification for high-temperature diffusion is a landmark. Diffusion processes operate at extreme temperatures (>1000°C), requiring exceptional material integrity. Being the only Chinese firm to achieve this places Pacific Quartz in an elite global club alongside Momentive and Heraeus.

Other Certifications

  • LAM Research: Certified for low-temperature etching. Etching chambers require quartz parts that are resistant to plasma erosion.
  • AMAT (Applied Materials): While not explicitly detailed as a full certification in the summary, the Company is actively pursuing AMAT validation, which would further broaden its addressable market.
  • Domestic Fabs: SMIC, Hua Hong, and CXMT are actively qualifying Pacific Quartz products. Given the political pressure to localize, these qualifications are likely to be fast-tracked compared to historical norms.

Market Share Potential

Currently, the global semiconductor quartz market is dominated by Western and Japanese firms.
* Total Addressable Market (TAM): China’s semiconductor equipment spend is ~$50 billion. Quartz consumables represent a small but critical fraction (estimated 1-2%). This implies a TAM of ~$500-1,000 million in China alone.
* Current Share: Pacific Quartz’s share is likely <5%.
* Target Share: With government mandates aiming for 70%+ localization rates in key materials, Pacific Quartz could realistically capture 20-30% of the domestic market within 5 years. This would translate to an additional CNY 1-2 billion in high-margin revenue, significantly boosting the bottom line beyond our base case forecasts.


Deep Dive: Photovoltaic Supply Chain Dynamics

The Crucible Lifecycle

Understanding the PV business requires understanding the lifecycle of the quartz crucible.
1. Structure: A crucible has three layers:
* Inner Layer: In direct contact with molten silicon. Must be ultra-high purity (bubble-free) to prevent wafer defects. Uses the most expensive sand.
* Middle Layer: Structural support. Moderate purity.
* Outer Layer: Insulation and shape retention. Lower purity requirements.
2. Consumption: A crucible lasts for only one or two pulls (depending on size and technology). For N-type cells, the requirement for purity is higher, and crucible life may be shorter, increasing sand consumption per GW.
3. Pacific Quartz’s Role: The Company sells sand to crucible manufacturers (like Jiangsu Yixing, Ningbo Baose, etc.). It does not primarily compete with them but supplies them. This B2B model ensures stable demand as long as PV installations grow.

The "Indian Ore" Factor

  • Dependency: Pacific Quartz sources its raw quartz ore primarily from India. This ore has the necessary geological characteristics (low fluid inclusions) to be processed into high-purity sand.
  • Risk/Reward:
    • Risk: Indian export policies can be unpredictable.
    • Reward: Pacific Quartz has secured long-term supply agreements and has developed proprietary purification techniques that allow it to use slightly lower-grade ore blends, reducing cost.
    • Competitive Advantage: Competitors relying solely on US Spruce Pine ore face higher logistics costs and geopolitical scrutiny. Pacific Quartz’s diversified sourcing (India + developing domestic sources) provides a strategic advantage.

Price Elasticity Mechanism

Why does a small price change lead to a large profit change?
* Fixed Costs: The purification plants have high fixed costs (energy, labor, depreciation).
* Variable Costs: The cost of raw ore is relatively low compared to the selling price of high-purity sand.
* Math: If the selling price drops from CNY 400k/ton to CNY 60k/ton, the variable cost might only drop from CNY 50k/ton to CNY 40k/ton. The margin compression is severe. Conversely, when prices rise from CNY 60k to CNY 80k, the variable cost stays flat, so the entire CNY 20k increase flows to the bottom line (pre-tax). This is the definition of high operating leverage.


Comparative Analysis: Pacific Quartz vs. Feilihua

While both are leading Chinese quartz companies, their profiles differ significantly.

Feature Pacific Quartz (603688.SH) Feilihua (300395.SZ)
Core Strength Upstream Raw Material (Sand). Vertical integration from ore to sand to basic shapes. Downstream Processing & Fibers. Expertise in complex quartz shapes, fibers, and composites.
Primary End Markets PV (Sand/Crucibles), Semiconductor (Tubes). Aerospace (Fibers), Semiconductor (Complex Parts), Optical.
Semiconductor Focus High-volume consumables (Tubes, Sand). High-value, low-volume complex parts (Chambers, Rings).
Certifications TEL (Diffusion), LAM (Etch). TEL (Etch), LAM, AMAT. Stronger in aerospace/military.
Cyclicality High (exposed to PV commodity cycles). Medium (diversified into aerospace/defense).
Valuation Profile Higher beta, higher elasticity to PV/Sand prices. More stable, premium valuation due to aerospace moat.
Investment Case Play on PV Recovery + Semi Volume. Play on Aerospace Growth + Semi Complexity.

Conclusion: For investors seeking exposure to the volume side of semiconductor localization and a turnaround in the PV sector, Pacific Quartz is the superior choice. For those seeking stability and exposure to defense/aerospace, Feilihua is preferred. Given the current macro focus on "hard tech" manufacturing scale, Pacific Quartz’s sand dominance offers a unique scarcity value.


Final Thoughts: The Path to CNY 100+ Earnings

Our base case forecast sees net profit reaching CNY 909 million in 2027. However, there is a plausible "Bull Case" where:
1. Sand Prices Rebound: Inner-layer sand returns to CNY 100k/ton due to supply constraints.
2. Semi Share Gains: Pacific Quartz captures 15% of the domestic semi quartz market.
3. PV Growth Accelerates: Global installations exceed 800 GW by 2030.

In this scenario, revenues could exceed CNY 3.5 billion, and net margins could expand to 45%, leading to net profits of CNY 1.5 - 2.0 billion. At a conservative 20x P/E, this would imply a market cap of CNY 30-40 billion, representing 50-100% upside from current levels.

Even in the base case, the current price of CNY 38.58 offers a compelling entry point for long-term institutional investors willing to ride out the short-term volatility of the PV cycle. The semiconductor story is just beginning, and Pacific Quartz is best-in-class to tell it.


Disclaimer:
This report is prepared by Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd. for institutional investors only. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Shanxi Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. Shanxi Securities and its affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned in this report.