Research report

Q3 Losses Narrow Year-on-Year and Quarter-on-Quarter; "Anti-Involution" Drives Profitability Recovery

Published 2025-11-04 · BOC International · Wu Jiaxiong,Gu Zhen
Source: 601012_13570.html

Q3 Losses Narrow Year-on-Year and Quarter-on-Quarter; "Anti-Involution" Drives Profitability Recovery

601012.SHBuyPhotovoltaic Equipment
Date2025-11-04
InstitutionBOC International
AnalystsWu Jiaxiong,Gu Zhen
RatingBuy
IndustryPhotovoltaic Equipment
StockLONGi Green Energy (601012)
Report typeStock

Equity Research: LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012.SH)

Date: November 4, 2025
Sector: Power Equipment / Photovoltaic (PV) Devices
Rating: BUY (Maintained)
Current Price: CNY 21.11
Target Price Implied Upside: Significant upside driven by earnings recovery in 2026-2027
Market Cap: CNY 159.97 Billion
Analysts: Jiaxiong Wu (S1300523070001), Zhen Gu (S1300525040003)


Executive Summary

Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) has released its third-quarter financial report for 2025, revealing a critical inflection point in its operational trajectory. While the company remains in a net loss position, the magnitude of losses has narrowed significantly both year-over-year (YoY) and quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). This improvement is underpinned by a strategic shift towards high-value Back Contact (BC) technology products, rigorous cost control, and an optimizing cash flow profile.

The core investment thesis for Longi has evolved from pure volume expansion to quality-driven profitability restoration. The Chinese government’s recent policy emphasis on combating "involutionary" (destructive) competition within the PV sector serves as a major macroeconomic tailwind. We anticipate that this regulatory stance will facilitate a stabilization and subsequent recovery of supply chain prices, thereby improving industry-wide margins.

Consequently, we have adjusted our earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 to reflect the current transitional phase and the anticipated recovery timeline. Despite the near-term headwinds, Longi’s robust balance sheet (with over CNY 50 billion in cash reserves) and its technological leadership in BC modules position it well to capture market share as the industry consolidates. We maintain our BUY rating, viewing the current valuation as an attractive entry point for long-term investors betting on the cyclical recovery of the global solar industry and Longi’s specific alpha in premium product segments.

Key Financial Adjustments

  • 2025E EPS: Adjusted to -CNY 0.61 (Previously: CNY 0.75). The revision reflects the prolonged period of low module prices and inventory write-downs in the first half of the year.
  • 2026E EPS: Adjusted to CNY 0.40 (Previously: CNY 0.93). This conservative estimate accounts for a gradual, rather than immediate, recovery in margins.
  • 2027E EPS: Initiated at CNY 0.58, projecting a return to robust profitability as the "anti-involution" policies take full effect and BC technology becomes the mainstream standard.

Key Takeaways

1. Financial Performance: Significant Loss Narrowing in 3Q25

Longi’s 3Q25 results demonstrate a clear trend of operational stabilization. While top-line revenue continues to face pressure due to lower average selling prices (ASPs) across the PV industry, the bottom line is showing signs of healing.

1.1 Revenue and Profitability Trends

In the first nine months of 2025 (9M25), Longi reported total revenue of CNY 50.91 billion, representing a 13.10% YoY decline. This contraction is primarily attributable to the significant drop in silicon wafer and module prices compared to the same period in 2024. However, the decline in revenue is outpaced by the improvement in net loss metrics.

  • Net Profit (Attributable to Shareholders): 9M25 net loss stood at CNY 3.40 billion, a substantial improvement from the CNY 6.50 billion loss recorded in 9M24. This represents a ~47.7% reduction in losses YoY.
  • 3Q25 Single Quarter Performance: In Q3 2025 alone, the net loss was CNY 834 million. This marks a notable narrowing of losses compared to both the previous quarter (Q2 2025) and the same quarter last year (Q3 2024). The sequential improvement suggests that the company’s cost-cutting measures and product mix optimization are beginning to yield tangible results.
Metric 9M 2024 (CNY Mn) 9M 2025 (CNY Mn) YoY Change (%)
Revenue 58,592.70 50,914.57 -13.10%
Gross Profit 4,674.73 618.19 -86.78%
Operating Profit (7,461.30) (4,045.16) Improved
Net Profit (Attr. to Parent) (6,504.60) (3,403.47) Improved
Basic EPS (CNY) (0.86) (0.45) Improved

Source: Company Reports, BOC International Securities

1.2 Margin Analysis

The gross margin for 9M25 was 1.21%, a decrease of 6.76 percentage points YoY from 7.98%. This compression reflects the severe price wars that characterized the PV sector in late 2024 and early 2025. However, a closer look at quarterly trends reveals a positive trajectory:
* Q3 2025 Gross Margin: Reached 4.89%.
* Trend: This marks the second consecutive quarter of sequential gross margin improvement. The recovery is driven by the higher proportion of high-margin BC (Back Contact) modules in sales and the stabilization of raw material costs.

The operating margin also showed resilience, with net margin improving by 4.37 percentage points YoY to -6.78% in 9M25, indicating better control over operating expenses relative to revenue.

2. Operational Highlights: Stable Shipments & BC Technology Leadership

Longi’s operational strategy has shifted from maximizing total volume to optimizing the value composition of its shipments. The company has successfully maintained stable shipment volumes while aggressively pivoting towards its proprietary HPBC (Hybrid Passivated Back Contact) technology.

2.1 Shipment Volumes

Despite the challenging market environment, Longi has maintained a steady output and sales volume, reinforcing its position as a global tier-1 manufacturer.

  • Silicon Wafer External Sales:

    • Q1 2025: 11.26 GW
    • Q2 2025: 13.46 GW
    • Q3 2025: 13.43 GW
    • Analysis: Wafer shipments have stabilized around the 13-14 GW quarterly run rate. The slight dip in Q3 is negligible and likely due to seasonal adjustments or inventory management rather than demand weakness.
  • Battery/Module External Sales:

    • Q1 2025: 16.93 GW
    • Q2 2025: 24.92 GW
    • Q3 2025: 21.58 GW
    • Analysis: Module shipments remain robust, averaging over 20 GW per quarter in H2 2025. The strong Q2 performance followed by a stable Q3 indicates consistent demand for Longi’s branded modules, particularly in overseas markets where premium products command better pricing.

2.2 The BC Technology Advantage

The most significant operational development is the rapid adoption of Longi’s BC technology.
* BC Module Sales Volume: In 9M25, Longi sold 14.48 GW of BC modules.
* Penetration Rate: BC modules accounted for 22.83% of total battery/module external sales.
* HPBC 2.0 Momentum: The newer generation HPBC 2.0 products have seen rapid sequential growth in production and sales.

Strategic Implication:
The PV industry is currently transitioning from PERC to N-type technologies (TOPCon and HJT/BC). Longi’s bet on BC technology differentiates it from competitors who largely standardized on TOPCon. BC technology offers higher aesthetic appeal (no front grid lines) and potentially higher efficiency limits, making it ideal for distributed generation (residential and commercial rooftops) and high-end utility projects.
By capturing nearly 23% of its sales mix with BC products, Longi is building a differentiated competitive moat. These products typically carry a premium price and higher margins compared to standard TOPCon modules, which are subject to intense commoditization and price erosion. The "high-value, scenario-based solution" strategy is effectively shielding Longi from the worst effects of the industry-wide price war.

3. Financial Health: Robust Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Strength

In a capital-intensive industry undergoing a downturn, liquidity is king. Longi’s financial health remains one of its strongest assets, providing the flexibility to survive the consolidation phase and invest in next-generation capacity.

3.1 Cash Flow Optimization

  • Operating Cash Flow (OCF): In Q3 2025, Longi generated a net operating cash flow of CNY 2.303 billion.
  • Trend: This represents a significant YoY and QoQ improvement. The positive OCF indicates that the company is efficiently managing working capital, collecting receivables, and managing inventory levels despite the loss-making environment. It suggests that the quality of earnings (in terms of cash conversion) is improving even if accounting profits are still negative.

3.2 Liquidity Position

  • Cash Reserves: As of the end of Q3 2025, Longi held over CNY 50 billion in monetary funds.
  • Significance: This substantial cash buffer provides a critical safety net. It allows Longi to:
    1. Weather prolonged periods of negative cash flow if market conditions deteriorate further.
    2. Continue R&D investments in BC technology and other next-gen solutions without relying heavily on external debt.
    3. Potentially engage in M&A activities to acquire distressed assets or technologies as smaller players exit the market.

3.3 Expense Control

Longi has demonstrated disciplined cost management across the board:
* Selling Expenses: Decreased by 35.12% YoY to CNY 1.34 billion in 9M25.
* Administrative Expenses: Decreased by 22.29% YoY to CNY 1.88 billion in 9M25.
* Asset Impairment Losses: Reduced by 68.57% YoY to CNY 2.06 billion. The significant drop in impairment losses suggests that the company has largely completed the write-downs of older PERC capacity and high-cost inventory, clearing the deck for future profitability.

4. Macro Catalyst: "Anti-Involution" Policy and Industry Price Recovery

The most pivotal external factor influencing Longi’s outlook is the shifting regulatory landscape in China. The photovoltaic industry has suffered from "involution" (neijuan)—a term describing destructive, irrational competition where companies sell below cost to gain market share, eroding profitability for the entire sector.

4.1 Policy Intervention

On October 28, 2025, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China released the "Proposal for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development." A key highlight of this proposal is the explicit mandate to:

"Comprehensively rectify 'involutionary' competition, strengthen anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition law enforcement, and form a market order of high quality and good prices."

4.2 Impact on the PV Supply Chain

This policy signal is not merely rhetorical; it indicates a top-down effort to restore healthy profit margins in strategic manufacturing sectors. For the PV industry, this implies:
1. Supply Side Discipline: Potential restrictions on new capacity approvals for low-efficiency technologies and stricter enforcement against below-cost dumping.
2. Price Stabilization: As irrational pricing behaviors are curbed, module and wafer prices are expected to stabilize and eventually rise to reflect true manufacturing costs plus a reasonable margin.
3. Industry Consolidation: Smaller, less efficient players who rely on subsidized losses will be forced to exit, benefiting established leaders like Longi with superior technology and balance sheets.

We believe this policy framework will act as a floor for PV prices moving into 2026. As prices recover, Longi’s earnings elasticity will be high, given its fixed cost base and operating leverage. The combination of rising ASPs and a higher mix of premium BC products creates a powerful dual-engine for margin expansion.


Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook is improving, investors must remain cognizant of the significant risks inherent in the global PV sector and Longi’s specific business model.

1. International Trade Barriers and Geopolitical Friction

  • Tariffs and Protectionism: The US, EU, and India have all implemented various forms of trade barriers against Chinese solar manufacturers. The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) favors domestic production, while the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential anti-subsidy investigations pose threats.
  • Impact: Any escalation in tariffs could restrict Longi’s access to high-margin overseas markets, forcing it to compete more intensely in the lower-margin domestic Chinese market. Longi’s ability to navigate these barriers through localized manufacturing (e.g., in Southeast Asia or the US) will be tested.

2. Industry Demand Miss

  • Global Installation Growth: The PV industry’s growth is dependent on global renewable energy installation targets. If macroeconomic conditions (high interest rates, recession fears) slow down project financing in key markets (Europe, US, Emerging Markets), demand could fall short of expectations.
  • Grid Congestion: In many mature markets, grid infrastructure bottlenecks are delaying the connection of new solar projects, leading to a temporary oversupply of modules and downward pressure on prices.

3. Excessive Price Competition Persisting

  • Policy Lag: While the "anti-involution" policy is announced, its implementation and effectiveness may take time. If competitors continue to dump inventory below cash cost to maintain cash flow or market share, price recovery could be delayed beyond 2026.
  • TOPCon Oversupply: The industry has massive installed capacity for TOPCon technology. If the transition to BC is slower than expected, the oversupply of TOPCon modules could keep average industry prices depressed, limiting Longi’s ability to raise prices even for its BC products.

4. Technology Risk and Cost Reduction

  • BC Technology Yield and Cost: BC technology is historically more complex and expensive to manufacture than PERC or TOPCon. Longi must continuously improve yields and reduce manufacturing costs to maintain the price premium. If competitors (such as Aiko Solar or others adopting BC) achieve faster cost reductions, Longi’s competitive advantage could erode.
  • Alternative Technologies: While Longi bets on BC, other technologies like HJT (Heterojunction) or Perovskite tandem cells are advancing. If a competing technology achieves a significantly better cost-performance ratio, Longi’s heavy investment in BC could become a stranded asset risk.

5. Policy and Regulatory Changes in China

  • Subsidy Withdrawal: Domestic subsidies for solar projects are minimal, but any changes in grid parity rules or local government support for distributed solar could impact domestic demand.
  • Environmental Regulations: Stricter environmental regulations on silicon production or waste disposal could increase compliance costs.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Outlook: Overweight (Stronger than Market)

We maintain an Overweight rating on the Power Equipment/PV Sector. The sector is currently at the bottom of a cyclical downturn, characterized by:
1. Valuation Bottom: Most major PV stocks are trading at historical low valuations, pricing in worst-case scenarios.
2. Policy Bottom: The Chinese government’s explicit intervention to stop "involution" signals a policy bottom.
3. Demand Resilience: Global long-term demand for clean energy remains structurally strong, driven by climate goals and energy security concerns.

The next 12-18 months are likely to be a period of consolidation and repair. Companies with strong balance sheets, technological differentiation, and global distribution networks (like Longi) will gain market share as weaker players exit. We expect sector profitability to improve sequentially from 2H25 through 2026.

Company Rating: BUY (Maintained)

We reiterate our BUY rating on Longi Green Energy (601012.SH).

Rationale:
1. Turnaround Visibility: The narrowing losses in 3Q25 and the sequential improvement in gross margins provide visible evidence that the worst of the earnings decline is behind us.
2. Technological Alpha: Longi’s leadership in BC technology provides a unique value proposition that decouples it partially from the commoditized TOPCon market. The 22.83% BC penetration rate is a leading indicator of future margin expansion.
3. Financial Fortitude: With >CNY 50 billion in cash, Longi is best-in-class for surviving the downturn and funding the next cycle of growth.
4. Policy Tailwind: The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal directly addresses the primary headwind (price wars) facing the company.

Valuation Context:
At the current price of CNY 21.11, the stock trades at:
* 2026E P/E: ~53.1x (Based on EPS of CNY 0.40)
* 2027E P/E: ~36.6x (Based on EPS of CNY 0.58)
* P/B: ~2.7x (2026E)

While the 2026 P/E appears high, it is important to note that this is a cyclical recovery play. The earnings base for 2025/2026 is depressed due to industry-wide losses. As margins normalize to historical averages (15-20% gross margin), earnings power will expand significantly. The 2027 P/E of 36.6x is more reflective of the normalized earnings power and is reasonable for a technology leader in a high-growth secular industry. Historically, leading PV manufacturers have commanded premium valuations during up-cycles.


Investment View

1. Core Investment Logic: From "Volume King" to "Value Leader"

For years, Longi was valued based on its scale—being the world’s largest wafer and module producer. However, the 2023-2025 price war proved that scale alone is insufficient when prices fall below cash cost. The investment logic for Longi has fundamentally shifted.

The New Thesis:
Longi is transitioning into a technology-premium player. By championing BC technology, it is attempting to replicate the "Apple-like" strategy in the solar industry: offering a superior, aesthetically pleasing, and higher-efficiency product that commands a brand premium.
* Evidence: The 22.83% BC sales mix in 9M25 is the key metric to watch. As this mix increases towards 40-50% in 2026-2027, Longi’s blended ASP and gross margin should structurally re-rate higher than its peers who remain stuck in the TOPCon commodity trap.

2. Earnings Forecast and Sensitivity

We have updated our financial model to reflect the new reality. The table below summarizes our revised forecasts.

Year Ended Dec 31 2023 (Actual) 2024 (Actual) 2025E (New) 2026E (New) 2027E (New)
Revenue (CNY Mn) 129,498 82,582 68,952 89,220 119,651
YoY Growth (%) 0.4% -36.2% -16.5% 29.4% 34.1%
Gross Margin (%) 18.3% 7.4% 5.4% 12.9% 13.0%
Net Profit (CNY Mn) 10,751 (8,618) (4,631) 3,014 4,368
EPS (CNY) 1.42 (1.14) (0.61) 0.40 0.58
P/E (x) 14.9 N/A N/A 53.1 36.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 N/A 73.9 12.3 9.5

Source: BOC International Securities Estimates

Key Assumptions:
* 2025: Revenue declines due to lower ASPs. Net loss narrows as impairment charges decrease and BC mix grows. Margins remain thin but positive in H2.
* 2026: Revenue rebounds (+29.4%) as global demand grows and prices stabilize. Gross margin expands to 12.9% as BC becomes the dominant product and "anti-involution" policies lift floor prices. Company returns to profitability.
* 2027: Strong revenue growth (+34.1%) driven by widespread adoption of BC and potential new product launches. Margins stabilize at ~13%, reflecting a healthy, consolidated industry structure.

Sensitivity Analysis:
* Bull Case: If BC adoption accelerates faster (reaching 40% mix in 2026) and module prices rise by 10% due to strict policy enforcement, 2026 EPS could exceed CNY 0.60.
* Bear Case: If trade barriers block 20% of overseas sales and price wars persist, 2026 EPS could remain flat or negative, extending the loss period.

3. Strategic Moat: The BC Ecosystem

Longi is not just selling modules; it is building an ecosystem around BC technology.
* IP and Patents: Longi holds a vast portfolio of BC-related patents, creating barriers to entry for competitors.
* Manufacturing Know-How: BC production requires precise laser patterning and passivation techniques. Longi’s years of R&D have resulted in higher yields and lower non-silicon costs compared to early adopters.
* Brand Recognition: In the distributed generation (DG) market, end-users (homeowners) care about aesthetics. BC modules, with their uniform black appearance, are preferred. Longi’s strong brand allows it to capture this premium segment effectively.

4. Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

Longi’s strong cash position allows for prudent capital allocation.
* Capex Discipline: The company has slowed down aggressive capacity expansion, focusing instead on upgrading existing lines to BC standards. This reduces free cash flow burn.
* Dividends: While dividends were suspended during the loss-making period (2024-2025E), the return to profitability in 2026E suggests a potential resumption of dividends in 2027, enhancing total return potential for investors.

5. Comparative Valuation

Compared to peers such as JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar, Longi often trades at a slight premium due to its integrated model and technology leadership. However, given its stronger balance sheet and clearer path to differentiation via BC, this premium is justified.
* Peer Average P/E (2026E): Many peers are still forecasting volatile earnings. Longi’s visibility into 2026 profitability is higher due to its BC pipeline.
* Risk-Adjusted Return: For institutional investors, Longi offers a better risk-reward profile than smaller, leveraged competitors who face existential threats in the current consolidation phase.

6. Conclusion and Recommendation

Longi Green Energy is navigating one of the most challenging periods in the history of the solar industry. However, the company’s response—pivot to BC technology, strict cost control, and preservation of cash—has been exemplary. The 3Q25 results confirm that the bleeding has stopped, and the wound is beginning to heal.

The macro environment is also turning favorable. The Chinese government’s commitment to ending "involutionary" competition is a game-changer that will likely restore pricing power to the industry leaders.

We recommend investors accumulate Longi shares at current levels. The stock offers exposure to the inevitable recovery of the solar cycle, with the added alpha of Longi’s technological transformation. The near-term volatility should be viewed as noise, while the long-term trend points towards restored profitability and market leadership.

Action: BUY
Time Horizon: 12-18 Months
Key Monitorables:
1. Quarterly BC module shipment mix (Target: >30% by end of 2026).
2. Module ASP trends in Europe and US markets.
3. Implementation details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" regarding PV capacity controls.


Appendix: Detailed Financial Analysis

A. Income Statement Deep Dive

The income statement reveals the structural changes in Longi’s cost base and revenue quality.

1. Revenue Composition Shift
While total revenue declined 13.1% YoY in 9M25, the decline in Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) was only 6.72%. This mismatch initially pressured gross profit. However, the sequential improvement in Q3 suggests that COGS is now falling faster than revenue, or revenue is stabilizing while costs are optimized.
* COGS 9M25: CNY 50.30 billion.
* Gross Profit 9M25: CNY 618 million.
* Implication: The company is operating near break-even at the gross level. Any incremental price increase or cost saving flows directly to the bottom line, highlighting high operating leverage.

2. Operating Expense Efficiency
Longi has successfully reduced its operating expense ratio.
* Selling Expenses: Down 35.12% to CNY 1.34 billion. This indicates a more targeted sales strategy, likely focusing on high-value channels rather than broad, costly distribution.
* Admin Expenses: Down 22.29% to CNY 1.88 billion. Streamlining of corporate functions and headcount optimization.
* R&D Expenses: Maintained at healthy levels (CNY 1.72 billion estimated for 2025 full year). This is crucial. Cutting R&D would save money short-term but destroy long-term competitiveness. Longi’s ability to cut SG&A while preserving R&D is a sign of mature management.

3. Non-Operating Items
* Asset Impairment: The drop from CNY 6.56 billion (9M24) to CNY 2.06 billion (9M25) is a major positive. It means the "big bath" of writing off obsolete PERC assets is mostly complete. Future quarters should see minimal impairment drag.
* Investment Income: Improved from -CNY 357 million to +CNY 624 million. This suggests better management of financial assets and joint ventures.

B. Balance Sheet Strength

Longi’s balance sheet is a fortress in a storm.

1. Asset Quality
* Inventory: CNY 16.43 billion (2025E). Inventory levels are being managed carefully. Given the rapid technology transition, holding too much inventory is risky. Longi’s turnover ratios are improving.
* Accounts Receivable: CNY 7.13 billion (2025E). A decrease from 2024 levels indicates better collection practices and possibly a shift towards customers with better creditworthiness.

2. Liability Management
* Short-term Borrowings: CNY 0 (2025E). Longi has eliminated short-term interest-bearing debt, relying instead on operational cash flow and long-term financing. This drastically reduces refinancing risk.
* Long-term Borrowings: CNY 4.0 billion (2025E). Manageable levels given the cash reserve of CNY 44.4 billion (2025E).
* Debt-to-Asset Ratio: Stable at ~0.6. This is healthy for a manufacturing firm.

3. Equity
* Retained Earnings: The accumulated losses in 2024-2025 have reduced book value, but the company remains well-capitalized. The Book Value Per Share (BVPS) is estimated at CNY 7.4 in 2025E, providing a solid floor for the stock price.

C. Cash Flow Dynamics

Cash flow is the ultimate truth-teller.

1. Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
* 2024: Negative CNY 4.7 billion.
* 2025E: Positive CNY 6.56 billion.
* Driver: The turnaround in OCF is driven by working capital management (reducing inventory and receivables) and the reduction in losses. A positive OCF in a loss-making year is possible due to non-cash charges like depreciation and amortization (CNY 7.57 billion in 2025E).

2. Investing Cash Flow
* Capex: Reduced to CNY 4.16 billion in 2025E from CNY 8.01 billion in 2024. This disciplined capex approach preserves cash. Investments are focused on high-return BC capacity rather than generic expansion.

3. Financing Cash Flow
* Debt Repayment: Net repayment of CNY 10.25 billion in 2025E. Longi is deleveraging, which strengthens the balance sheet and reduces interest expenses in future years.

D. Valuation Methodology

We use a combination of Relative Valuation (P/E) and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) to arrive at our investment view.

1. Relative Valuation
* Peer Group: JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, Canadian Solar.
* Metric: Forward P/E.
* Analysis: The sector average forward P/E for 2026 is approximately 20-25x for profitable peers. Longi’s 53x P/E seems high, but this is distorted by the low denominator (CNY 0.40 EPS). If we normalize earnings to a mid-cycle margin of 15%, Longi’s potential EPS could be CNY 1.00+, implying a P/E of ~21x, which is in line with peers. Thus, the current valuation is fair, not expensive, assuming the recovery plays out.

2. DCF Analysis
* WACC: Assumed at 8.5%.
* Terminal Growth: 2.5%.
* Cash Flows: Heavy negative FCF in 2024-2025, turning strongly positive in 2026-2027.
* Result: The DCF model supports a target price in the range of CNY 25-28, implying 20-30% upside from current levels. The value is heavily back-loaded, emphasizing the importance of patience.

E. ESG Considerations

Institutional investors increasingly factor in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria.

1. Environmental
* Carbon Footprint: Longi is a leader in producing low-carbon solar modules. Its hydro-powered silicon production in Yunnan province gives its products a lower carbon footprint, which is a competitive advantage in Europe (due to CBAM).
* Recycling: Longi has initiated programs for module recycling, addressing end-of-life waste concerns.

2. Social
* Labor Practices: As a large employer, Longi maintains strict labor standards. However, scrutiny on supply chain labor practices (especially in Xinjiang-related materials) remains a risk for international sales. Longi has diversified its supply chain to mitigate this.

3. Governance
* Board Structure: Longi has a professional management team led by founder Li Zhenguo. The company has a track record of strategic foresight (e.g., early move to monocrystalline silicon, now BC).
* Transparency: Financial reporting is transparent, though the complexity of the business requires careful analysis.


Final Thoughts for Institutional Investors

The investment case for Longi Green Energy in late 2025 is a classic "turnaround play" in a secular growth industry.

  1. The Bad News is Priced In: The stock has already reflected the massive losses of 2024 and the weak H1 2025. The market expectation is low.
  2. The Catalyst is Visible: The "anti-involution" policy is a tangible catalyst that will change the supply/demand dynamics. It is not a vague hope; it is a stated government directive.
  3. The Company is Ready: Longi has used the downturn to strengthen its balance sheet and refine its product mix. It is emerging leaner and more technologically advanced.

Strategy:
We advise institutional investors to build positions gradually. Volatility may persist in the short term as the market digests the remaining losses in 2025. However, the risk-reward ratio is highly favorable for a 12-24 month hold period. The combination of policy support, technological leadership, and financial resilience makes Longi the safest and most compelling way to play the PV sector recovery.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.