Longi Green Energy (601012.SH): BC Technology Ramp-Up Narrows Losses in Q3; Strategic Entry into Energy Storage via Jingkong Acquisition
Date: November 2025
Analyst: Zhong Xincai, Liu Qiang | Pacific Securities
Rating: BUY (Maintained)
Current Price: CNY 18.58
Market Cap: CNY 140.8 Billion
Executive Summary
Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. ("Longi" or the "Company"), the global leader in monocrystalline silicon wafers and solar modules, has demonstrated significant resilience amidst a challenging industry cycle. The Company’s third-quarter 2025 financial results reveal a marked improvement in profitability trends, driven by the accelerated adoption of its proprietary Back Contact (BC) technology and disciplined operational management. While the top line remains under pressure due to broader industry consolidation, the sequential and year-over-year reduction in net losses signals that the bottom of the cycle may be in sight for Longi’s core business.
In a strategic move to diversify its revenue streams and capture synergies in the renewable energy ecosystem, Longi announced the acquisition of a controlling stake in Suzhou Jingkong Energy Technology Co., Ltd. ("Jingkong Energy"). This transaction, coupled with the global launch of Longi’s integrated energy storage solutions in London, marks a pivotal transition from a pure-play solar manufacturer to a comprehensive clean energy solution provider.
We maintain our BUY rating on Longi Green Energy. Our investment thesis is anchored on three core pillars:
1. Technological Alpha: The rapid ramp-up of HPBC 2.0 products is enhancing product differentiation, allowing Longi to command premium pricing and improve margins relative to the commoditized PERC and TOPCon sectors.
2. Industry Consolidation Benefits: Ongoing policy-driven efforts to curb "involution" (excessive internal competition) in the Chinese photovoltaic (PV) sector are stabilizing supply chains, leading to price stabilization and eventual margin recovery.
3. Strategic Diversification: The entry into the energy storage sector via the Jingkong acquisition provides a new growth engine, leveraging Longi’s existing global channel network and brand equity.
While we anticipate continued headwinds in the near term, with full-year 2025 earnings projected to remain negative, we forecast a robust return to profitability in 2026 and sustained growth through 2027. We adjust our earnings estimates to reflect the current competitive landscape but remain confident in Longi’s ability to outperform peers during the industry’s recovery phase.
Key Takeaways
1. Financial Performance: Q3 2025 Shows Clear Signs of Stabilization
Longi’s financial results for the first nine months of 2025 and specifically for the third quarter (Q3) indicate a company navigating the trough of the industry cycle with improving efficiency.
Nine-Month Overview (Jan–Sep 2025):
* Revenue: The Company reported total operating revenue of CNY 50.915 billion, representing a year-over-year (YoY) decline of 13.10%. This contraction is consistent with the broader industry trend of reduced shipment volumes and lower average selling prices (ASPs) as the market digests excess capacity.
* Net Profit: The attributable net profit to shareholders stood at a loss of CNY 3.403 billion. However, this represents a significant year-over-year reduction in losses, demonstrating the effectiveness of cost-control measures and the higher margin contribution from newer technology nodes.
Third Quarter Deep Dive (Q3 2025):
* Revenue: Q3 revenue amounted to CNY 18.101 billion, down 9.78% YoY and 5.53% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). The slight QoQ decline reflects seasonal adjustments and ongoing inventory normalization.
* Net Profit: The attributable net loss for Q3 was CNY 834 million. Crucially, this figure represents a substantial narrowing of losses on both a YoY and QoQ basis. This trend is the most critical indicator for institutional investors, suggesting that the drag from asset impairments and low-margin legacy product sales is diminishing.
| Metric | Q3 2024 (Est.) | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | QoQ Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (CNY bn) | ~20.06 | 19.16 | 18.10 | -5.53% | -9.78% |
| Attributable Net Profit (CNY mn) | (Higher Loss) | (Higher Loss) | (834) | Improvement | Improvement |
| Gross Margin Trend | Depressed | Stabilizing | Recovering | Positive | Positive |
Note: Specific prior period loss figures for exact QoQ/YoY percentage calculation of net profit were described qualitatively as "significant reduction" in the source report; the table highlights the directional improvement.
The narrowing of losses is primarily attributed to:
1. Product Mix Optimization: A higher proportion of high-efficiency BC modules in shipments.
2. Cost Reduction: Continued reductions in non-silicon costs and manufacturing overheads.
3. Impairment Normalization: While asset impairments remain a factor, their impact is becoming more contained compared to the severe write-downs seen in late 2024 and early 2025.
2. Operational Highlights: BC Technology Becomes the Core Growth Driver
The most significant operational development for Longi is the successful commercialization and scaling of its Back Contact (BC) technology platform. In an industry where TOPCon has become the mainstream standard, Longi’s bet on BC technology is differentiating its product portfolio and protecting its brand premium.
Shipment Volumes and Structure:
* Silicon Wafers: External shipments for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2025 were 11.26 GW, 13.46 GW, and 13.43 GW, respectively. The stability in Q2 and Q3 wafer shipments indicates that Longi is maintaining its market share in the upstream segment despite intense competition.
* Modules & Cells: External shipments of battery cells and modules were 16.93 GW (Q1), 24.92 GW (Q2), and 21.58 GW (Q3). The Q3 volume remains robust, reflecting strong demand for Longi’s premium products in key international markets.
The BC Revolution:
* Cumulative BC Shipments: From January to September 2025, Longi shipped a cumulative 14.48 GW of BC modules.
* Penetration Rate: BC modules accounted for 22.83% of the Company’s total external module shipments in the first three quarters. This is a remarkable achievement for a new technology node, indicating rapid customer acceptance.
* HPBC 2.0 Ramp-Up: The second generation of Longi’s heterojunction back contact technology (HPBC 2.0) has seen rapid growth in production and sales on a QoQ basis. HPBC 2.0 offers higher conversion efficiencies and better aesthetic appeal (all-black design), which are highly valued in distributed generation (DG) and residential markets, particularly in Europe and Australia.
Strategic Implication of BC Leadership:
The PV industry is currently characterized by homogeneous competition in the TOPCon sector, leading to razor-thin margins. By pivoting to BC technology, Longi is effectively creating a "moat" around its business. BC technology is technically more complex to manufacture, creating higher barriers to entry for competitors. As HPBC 2.0 scales, Longi expects to enjoy:
1. Pricing Power: Ability to maintain higher ASPs compared to standard TOPCon modules.
2. Margin Resilience: Higher gross margins per watt, which cushions the impact of fluctuating silicon prices.
3. Brand Loyalty: Strengthened positioning in high-end residential and commercial segments where efficiency and aesthetics are paramount.
3. Strategic M&A: Acquisition of Jingkong Energy and Entry into Storage
On November 13, 2025, the Shaanxi Provincial Administration for Market Regulation publicized Longi’s acquisition of equity in Suzhou Jingkong Energy Technology Co., Ltd. ("Jingkong Energy"). This transaction is a cornerstone of Longi’s strategy to expand beyond solar generation into energy storage, a critical component of the modern renewable energy grid.
Transaction Structure:
* Control Acquired: Longi will acquire approximately 61.9998% of the voting rights in Jingkong Energy through a combination of equity acquisition, capital increase, and voting rights entrustment.
* Consolidation: Upon completion, Longi will have sole control over Jingkong Energy, consolidating its financial statements.
About Jingkong Energy:
Jingkong Energy is a specialized player in the lithium-ion battery energy storage system (BESS) business. The company possesses core competencies in battery pack integration, thermal management, and system control software. Its expertise complements Longi’s strengths in power electronics and global distribution.
Strategic Rationale:
1. Synergy with Solar Business: Solar generation is intermittent. Offering integrated "Solar + Storage" solutions allows Longi to provide customers with a complete energy independence package, increasing stickiness and average revenue per user (ARPU).
2. Channel Leverage: Longi has one of the most extensive global distribution networks in the PV industry. By integrating Jingkong’s storage products into this network, Longi can rapidly scale its storage business without the need to build a sales force from scratch.
3. Market Timing: The global energy storage market is experiencing exponential growth, driven by grid instability, peak-shaving demands, and supportive policies in Europe, the US, and emerging markets. Entering this market now positions Longi to capture a significant share of the next wave of renewable energy infrastructure spending.
Global Launch of Storage Strategy:
On November 26, 2025, shortly after the acquisition announcement, Longi held a major product launch event in London, UK. Mr. She Haifeng, Vice President of Longi Green Energy, unveiled the Company’s comprehensive energy storage strategy to a global audience.
* One-Stop Solution: Longi introduced a "one-stop" energy storage solution, integrating its solar inverters, BC modules, and Jingkong’s battery systems.
* Global Ambition: The choice of London for the launch underscores Longi’s focus on high-value European markets, where regulatory frameworks are increasingly favoring integrated renewable energy systems.
This move transforms Longi from a component supplier into a system-level solution provider, enhancing its value proposition and opening up new revenue streams with potentially higher margins than pure module manufacturing.
4. Industry Context: The "Anti-Involution" Policy Shift
The Chinese PV industry has suffered from severe "involution" (neijuan)—a term describing destructive internal competition characterized by excessive capacity expansion, price wars below cash cost, and eroded profitability. However, recent policy developments suggest a turning point.
Policy-Driven Consolidation:
* Capacity Control: Regulatory bodies and industry associations are actively implementing measures to curb blind expansion of low-efficiency capacity. New project approvals are being scrutinized more strictly, and outdated capacity is being phased out.
* Price Floor Mechanisms: Industry leaders, including Longi, are collaborating to establish reasonable pricing benchmarks that reflect true manufacturing costs plus a reasonable margin. This helps prevent predatory pricing that harms the entire supply chain’s health.
* Supply-Demand Rebalancing: As low-cost, low-efficiency capacity exits the market and demand continues to grow globally (albeit at a moderated pace), the supply-demand imbalance is expected to ease.
Impact on Longi:
As a technology leader with a strong balance sheet, Longi is well-positioned to benefit from this consolidation.
* Price Recovery: We expect PV chain prices to stabilize and gradually recover from current depressed levels.
* Margin Expansion: As prices rise and input costs (such as polysilicon) stabilize, gross margins for integrated players like Longi should expand.
* Market Share Gain: Smaller, less efficient competitors who cannot survive the price war will exit, allowing Longi to capture additional market share, particularly in the premium BC segment.
Risks / Headwinds
While the outlook is improving, investors must remain cognizant of the significant risks facing Longi and the broader PV industry.
1. Downstream Demand Volatility
- Global Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic uncertainties in key markets (Europe, USA, China) could dampen investment in renewable energy projects. High interest rates, in particular, affect the internal rate of return (IRR) for utility-scale solar projects, potentially delaying installations.
- Policy Changes: The PV industry is heavily reliant on government subsidies and mandates. Any rollback of supportive policies (e.g., changes to the Inflation Reduction Act in the US, or adjustments to feed-in tariffs in Europe) could negatively impact demand.
- Grid Congestion: In many mature markets, grid infrastructure has not kept pace with renewable energy additions. Grid connection delays can push project completions into future periods, affecting short-term shipment volumes.
2. Raw Material Price Fluctuations
- Polysilicon Prices: Although polysilicon prices have fallen significantly, further volatility could impact inventory valuation and cost predictability. A sudden spike in raw material costs, if not passed on to customers, could compress margins.
- Other Materials: Prices of silver (used in metallization), glass, and aluminum frames are subject to commodity market fluctuations.
3. Intensified Market Competition
- Technology Race: While Longi leads in BC, competitors are aggressively developing their own BC or hybrid technologies (e.g., TBC, HJT). If competitors achieve comparable yields and lower costs faster than expected, Longi’s technological premium could erode.
- Price Wars: Despite "anti-involution" efforts, the temptation to cut prices to maintain cash flow remains high for distressed competitors. A prolonged price war could delay the expected margin recovery.
- Trade Barriers: Increasing protectionism, including tariffs and anti-dumping investigations in the US, Europe, and India, poses a risk to Longi’s export-oriented business model. Supply chain decoupling trends could force costly restructuring of manufacturing footprints.
4. Execution Risk in Energy Storage
- Integration Challenges: Integrating Jingkong Energy’s operations and culture into Longi’s vast organization presents management challenges.
- Storage Market Dynamics: The energy storage sector is also becoming increasingly competitive, with battery giants (like CATL, BYD) and specialized integrators vying for market share. Longi is a late entrant compared to some pure-play storage firms and must execute flawlessly to gain traction.
- Safety and Liability: Battery safety incidents can have severe reputational and financial consequences. Longi must ensure rigorous quality control in its new storage offerings.
5. Financial and Asset Impairment Risks
- Remaining Impairments: Given the rapid technological iteration, there is a risk of further asset impairments on older PERC and early-generation TOPCon production lines. While the worst may be over, residual write-downs could impact quarterly earnings.
- Cash Flow Pressure: Although Longi has a strong balance sheet, sustained negative operating cash flows (as seen in 2024 and projected for part of 2025) require careful liquidity management.
Rating / Sector Outlook
Sector Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic with Structural Shifts
We view the global photovoltaic sector as undergoing a critical structural transformation. The era of unrestricted capacity expansion is ending, replaced by a phase of technological differentiation and consolidation.
- Short-Term (6-12 months): The sector will likely remain volatile as excess capacity is digested. However, the worst of the price declines is behind us. We expect prices to bottom out and begin a gradual ascent in late 2025 and early 2026.
- Medium-Term (1-3 years): Leaders with superior technology (like BC) and strong balance sheets will emerge stronger. The gap between tier-1 manufacturers and smaller players will widen. The integration of storage will become a standard requirement for large tenders, favoring integrated players.
- Long-Term: The global energy transition remains intact. Solar energy is now the cheapest source of electricity in many parts of the world. Demand growth will continue, driven by electrification of transport, heating, and industry.
Investment Rating: BUY
We maintain our BUY rating on Longi Green Energy (601012.SH).
Rationale for Rating:
1. Valuation Attractiveness: At a current price of CNY 18.58, the stock trades at a significant discount to its historical averages and to its intrinsic value, given its market leadership. The market has largely priced in the negative earnings of 2024-2025.
2. Turnaround Visibility: The Q3 2025 results provide tangible evidence that the Company’s turnaround strategy is working. The narrowing losses and rising BC mix are clear leading indicators of future profitability.
3. Upside Optionality: The successful integration of Jingkong Energy and the launch of storage solutions provide an upside optionality that is not yet fully reflected in the consensus estimates. If Longi can replicate its solar success in storage, the total addressable market (TAM) expands significantly.
4. Resilience: Longi’s strong balance sheet (with significant cash reserves) allows it to weather the downturn better than leveraged peers and invest in R&D and capacity upgrades while others retreat.
Target Price Implication:
While a specific target price is not explicitly recalculated in this text based on a DCF model, the implied valuation from our 2026/2027 earnings forecasts suggests substantial upside. With projected EPS of CNY 0.41 in 2026 and CNY 0.74 in 2027, and applying a conservative PE multiple appropriate for a mature tech-manufacturing leader (e.g., 20-25x), the fair value range significantly exceeds the current trading level.
Investment View
1. Financial Forecast and Analysis
We have adjusted our earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 to reflect the current industry dynamics, the pace of BC adoption, and the integration of the storage business.
Revenue Projections:
* 2025E: CNY 65.43 billion (-20.77% YoY). The decline reflects the ongoing industry correction and lower ASPs.
* 2026E: CNY 81.30 billion (+24.24% YoY). Growth resumes as industry prices stabilize, BC volume scales significantly, and storage contributions begin to materialize.
* 2027E: CNY 96.33 billion (+18.49% YoY). Sustained growth driven by global demand expansion and deeper penetration of storage solutions.
Profitability Projections:
* 2025E: Net Loss of CNY 4.51 billion. We expect the full year to remain negative due to first-half drag and continued, albeit reduced, impairments. However, the second half should show sequential improvement.
* 2026E: Net Profit of CNY 3.09 billion. A return to profitability is driven by margin recovery in the core solar business and initial contributions from storage.
* 2027E: Net Profit of CNY 5.62 billion. Margin expansion continues as BC becomes the dominant product mix and economies of scale in storage reduce unit costs.
| Financial Indicator | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Revenue (CNY mn) | 129,498 | 82,582 | 65,434 | 81,296 | 96,332 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 0.39% | -36.23% | -20.77% | 24.24% | 18.49% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 18.54% | 7.44% | 2.82% | 12.94% | 14.55% |
| Net Profit Attrib. (CNY mn) | 10,751 | (8,618) | (4,509) | 3,088 | 5,617 |
| EPS (CNY) | 1.42 | (1.14) | (0.59) | 0.41 | 0.74 |
| PE (x) | 16.13 | — | — | 45.60 | 25.07 |
| ROE (%) | 15.25% | -14.15% | -7.96% | 5.17% | 8.70% |
Source: Pacific Securities Estimates, Wind
Key Observations from Forecasts:
* Margin Trajectory: The gross margin is expected to hit a low of ~2.8% in 2025 before recovering to ~13% in 2026 and ~14.5% in 2027. This V-shaped recovery mirrors the industry cycle and the shift to higher-margin BC products.
* Earnings Inflection: The swing from a CNY 4.5 billion loss in 2025 to a CNY 3.1 billion profit in 2026 represents a massive earnings inflection point. Investors typically front-run such inflections, suggesting the stock may appreciate before the 2026 profits are fully realized.
* Valuation Metrics: The 2026E PE of 45.6x appears high, but this is a function of the low base of earnings in the recovery year. By 2027, the PE drops to a more attractive 25.1x, aligning with growth expectations for a technology leader.
2. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Health
Longi’s financial position remains robust, providing the necessary cushion to navigate the downturn.
Liquidity:
* Cash Reserves: As of the latest estimates, Longi holds substantial monetary funds (projected CNY 52.6 billion in 2025). This liquidity is critical for funding R&D, sustaining operations during loss-making periods, and financing the Jingkong acquisition.
* Debt Management: Short-term borrowings are minimal (CNY 300 million), while long-term borrowings are manageable (CNY 15.9 billion). The Company’s debt structure is skewed towards long-term liabilities, reducing refinancing risk in the short term.
Cash Flow Trends:
* Operating Cash Flow (OCF): OCF was negative in 2024 (CNY -4.7 billion) and is estimated to remain slightly negative in 2025 (CNY -2.2 billion) due to working capital adjustments and lower profitability. However, a strong rebound is projected for 2026 (CNY 9.3 billion) and 2027 (CNY 13.7 billion) as profitability returns.
* Investing Cash Flow: Capital expenditure discipline is evident, with investing outflows decreasing significantly from CNY -7.2 billion in 2024 to an estimated CNY -0.8 billion in 2025. This indicates a shift from aggressive capacity expansion to optimization and technology upgrades.
* Financing Cash Flow: The Company has relied on financing activities to support liquidity during the downturn, but this dependency is expected to decrease as operating cash flow improves.
3. Strategic Deep Dive: The BC Technology Moat
To fully appreciate Longi’s investment case, one must understand the technical and economic advantages of its BC strategy.
Why BC?
Back Contact technology moves all metal contacts to the rear of the solar cell. This eliminates shading on the front surface, resulting in:
1. Higher Efficiency: BC cells can achieve conversion efficiencies exceeding 26-27%, surpassing standard TOPCon and PERC cells.
2. Aesthetics: The absence of front grid lines creates a uniform, all-black appearance, which is highly preferred in residential and commercial rooftop applications.
3. Reliability: Reduced stress on the front surface can lead to better mechanical reliability and lower degradation rates.
Longi’s HPBC 2.0 Advantage:
Longi’s proprietary HPBC (Hybrid Passivated Back Contact) technology combines the benefits of BC with heterojunction (HJT) passivation techniques.
* Yield Improvement: Early BC technologies suffered from low manufacturing yields. Longi’s HPBC 2.0 has achieved industrial-scale yields comparable to TOPCon, removing the primary barrier to mass adoption.
* Cost Parity: Through process innovation, Longi has reduced the cost premium of BC cells, making them commercially viable without excessive subsidies.
* Differentiation: In a market flooded with generic TOPCon modules, Longi’s BC modules offer a unique value proposition. This allows Longi to avoid the brutal price competition in the standard segment and focus on high-value customers.
Market Penetration Strategy:
Longi is initially targeting the distributed generation (DG) market, where aesthetics and efficiency command a premium. As costs decline further, BC technology will penetrate the utility-scale segment, displacing TOPCon. The 22.83% BC mix in Q1-Q3 2025 is just the beginning; we expect this to exceed 50% by 2026-2027.
4. Strategic Deep Dive: The Storage Opportunity
The acquisition of Jingkong Energy is not merely a diversification play; it is a logical extension of Longi’s core competencies.
Synergies:
* Customer Overlap: The same customers buying Longi’s solar modules (installers, EPCs, distributors) are increasingly demanding storage solutions. Longi can bundle products, simplifying procurement for customers.
* Brand Trust: Longi’s brand is synonymous with quality and reliability in solar. This trust transfers to storage, a sector where safety and longevity are paramount.
* Global Reach: Jingkong gains immediate access to Longi’s global sales network, accelerating its international expansion. Conversely, Longi gains immediate technical expertise in battery systems.
Market Potential:
The global energy storage market is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 20% in the coming decade. By entering this market with a strong partner, Longi taps into a high-growth segment that complements the more mature solar market.
Risks to Monitor:
* Battery Price Volatility: Lithium carbonate prices can be volatile. Longi will need to manage supply chain contracts effectively to protect margins.
* Regulatory Standards: Safety standards for storage vary by region. Longi must ensure compliance across all key markets.
5. Valuation Framework
We employ a combination of Relative Valuation (PE/PS) and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) logic to assess Longi’s value.
Relative Valuation:
* Peer Comparison: Compared to peers like JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar, Longi trades at a premium due to its technology leadership and balance sheet strength. However, this premium is justified by the higher visibility of margin recovery via BC technology.
* Historical Bands: Longi’s current Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of ~2.15x (2025E) is within the lower end of its historical range. As margins recover, the PS multiple is likely to expand.
* Forward PE: The 2027E PE of 25x is reasonable for a company with double-digit earnings growth potential and a dominant market position.
DCF Considerations:
* WACC: Given the current interest rate environment and industry risk, a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8-9% is appropriate.
* Terminal Growth: A terminal growth rate of 2-3% reflects the mature nature of the solar industry in the long run.
* Cash Flow Recovery: The key driver in any DCF model for Longi is the timing of the return to positive free cash flow. Our estimates suggest a strong FCF generation starting in 2026, which significantly boosts the present value of the firm.
6. Investment Catalysts
Several near-to-medium-term catalysts could drive the stock price higher:
- Quarterly Profitability Milestones: Achievement of quarterly net profitability in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 would serve as a strong confirmation of the turnaround.
- BC Shipment Updates: Monthly or quarterly data showing BC penetration exceeding 30-40% would validate the technology adoption thesis.
- Storage Order Announcements: Large-scale contracts for Longi’s new storage solutions, particularly in Europe or the Middle East, would demonstrate the success of the Jingkong integration.
- Industry Price Increases: Official announcements of price hikes by major industry players or associations would signal the end of the price war.
- Policy Support: Further government measures in China to restrict low-end capacity expansion would accelerate supply-side clearing.
7. Conclusion
Longi Green Energy stands at a pivotal juncture. The Company has successfully navigated the most painful phase of the industry downturn, evidenced by the narrowing losses in Q3 2025. Its strategic bet on BC technology is paying off, creating a differentiated product portfolio that commands premium pricing. Meanwhile, the acquisition of Jingkong Energy opens a new chapter in energy storage, leveraging Longi’s vast distribution network to capture a share of this high-growth market.
While risks remain, particularly regarding global demand and trade policies, the risk-reward profile for Longi is increasingly favorable. The market has priced in the negatives of the past two years, but has not fully accounted for the magnitude of the upcoming recovery and the strategic optionality provided by BC and storage.
For institutional investors with a medium-to-long-term horizon, Longi offers a compelling opportunity to invest in the undisputed leader of the solar industry as it transitions into a broader clean energy solutions provider. We recommend accumulating shares on weakness, with a target horizon of 12-18 months to capture the full benefit of the earnings recovery.
Final Recommendation: BUY
Appendix: Detailed Financial Tables
Income Statement Summary (CNY Million)
| Item | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Operating Revenue | 129,498 | 82,582 | 65,434 | 81,296 | 96,332 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | 105,492 | 76,440 | 63,590 | 70,774 | 82,318 |
| Gross Profit | 24,006 | 6,142 | 1,844 | 10,522 | 14,014 |
| Selling Expenses | 3,030 | 2,906 | 2,617 | 2,683 | 3,179 |
| Administrative Expenses | 4,915 | 3,430 | 2,945 | 3,171 | 3,661 |
| Financial Expenses | (1,832) | (237) | 21 | 95 | 14 |
| Asset Impairment Losses | (7,025) | (8,701) | (200) | (50) | (30) |
| Investment Income | 3,476 | 129 | 0 | 406 | 963 |
| Operating Profit | 12,113 | (9,755) | (5,182) | 3,549 | 6,457 |
| Total Profit | 11,989 | (10,206) | (5,182) | 3,549 | 6,457 |
| Income Tax | 1,303 | (1,528) | (674) | 461 | 839 |
| Net Profit | 10,687 | (8,677) | (4,509) | 3,088 | 5,617 |
| Attributable Net Profit | 10,751 | (8,618) | (4,509) | 3,088 | 5,617 |
Balance Sheet Summary (CNY Million)
| Item | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | 163,969 | 152,845 | 136,228 | 144,144 | 156,679 |
| Current Assets | 99,861 | 90,023 | 76,921 | 88,850 | 105,473 |
| - Cash & Equivalents | 57,001 | 53,157 | 52,603 | 60,683 | 72,867 |
| - Inventory | 21,540 | 13,382 | 10,598 | 11,796 | 13,720 |
| Non-Current Assets | 64,108 | 62,822 | 59,307 | 55,294 | 51,206 |
| - Fixed Assets | 37,059 | 36,201 | 33,653 | 31,160 | 28,592 |
| Total Liabilities | 93,257 | 91,444 | 79,047 | 83,876 | 91,636 |
| Current Liabilities | 41,406 | 37,406 | 43,047 | 47,876 | 55,636 |
| Non-Current Liabilities | 51,851 | 54,038 | 36,000 | 36,000 | 36,000 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 70,712 | 61,401 | 57,181 | 60,268 | 65,043 |
| Attributable Equity | 70,492 | 60,895 | 56,675 | 59,763 | 64,538 |
Cash Flow Statement Summary (CNY Million)
| Item | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Operating Cash Flow | 8,117 | (4,725) | (2,245) | 9,294 | 13,684 |
| Net Investing Cash Flow | (5,636) | (7,232) | (791) | (594) | (37) |
| Net Financing Cash Flow | 315 | 8,297 | 2,022 | (621) | (1,463) |
| Net Increase in Cash | 3,319 | (3,474) | (554) | 8,080 | 12,184 |
Key Financial Ratios
| Ratio | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin (%) | 18.54% | 7.44% | 2.82% | 12.94% | 14.55% |
| Net Margin (%) | 8.30% | -10.44% | -6.89% | 3.80% | 5.83% |
| ROE (%) | 15.25% | -14.15% | -7.96% | 5.17% | 8.70% |
| ROA (%) | 7.04% | -5.48% | -3.12% | 2.20% | 3.73% |
| Debt-to-Asset (%) | 56.87% | 59.83% | 58.03% | 58.19% | 58.49% |
| Current Ratio | 2.41 | 2.41 | 1.79 | 1.86 | 1.90 |
Disclaimer and Important Information
Analyst Certification:
The analysts responsible for this report, Zhong Xincai (S1190524110004) and Liu Qiang (S1190522080001), certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject securities and issuers. No part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Investment Rating Definitions:
* BUY: Expected return > 15% relative to CSI 300 Index over the next 6 months.
* OUTPERFORM: Expected return between 5% and 15% relative to CSI 300 Index.
* HOLD: Expected return between -5% and 5% relative to CSI 300 Index.
* UNDERPERFORM: Expected return between -5% and -15% relative to CSI 300 Index.
* SELL: Expected return < -15% relative to CSI 300 Index.
Sector Rating Definitions:
* OVERWEIGHT: Sector expected to outperform CSI 300 Index by > 5%.
* NEUTRAL: Sector expected to perform within +/- 5% of CSI 300 Index.
* UNDERWEIGHT: Sector expected to underperform CSI 300 Index by > 5%.
General Disclaimer:
This report is prepared by Pacific Securities Co., Ltd. for the exclusive use of its clients. It is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local laws or regulations. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Pacific Securities does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute a judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Investors should make their own investment decisions based on their own objectives and risk tolerance. Pacific Securities and its affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned in this report and may engage in transactions related to these securities.
Contact Information:
Pacific Securities Research Institute
Beijing Office: Block D, Huayuan Enterprise Plaza, No. 9 Beizhan North Street, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100044, China.
Kunming Office: 31st Floor, Tongde Plaza Office Building, No. 926 Beijing Road, Panlong District, Kunming, Yunnan, China.
Customer Service Hotline: 95397
Email: kefu@tpyzq.com
End of Report