Strategic Pivot to Space-Based Photovoltaics: Junda Shares Partners with Shangyi Optoelectronics to Capture Trillion-Yuan Market Opportunity

Date: December 23, 2025
Ticker: Junda Shares (A-Share / H-Share)
Sector: Renewable Energy / Photovoltaic Technology
Analyst: Institutional Research Team
Current Price: CNY 49.50
Rating: BUY
Target Horizon: 12–24 Months

Executive Summary

On December 22, 2025, Junda Shares (hereinafter referred to as "the Company" or "Junda") announced the signing of a Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement with Shangyi Optoelectronics ("Shangyi"). Under this agreement, Junda will acquire an equity stake in Shangyi as a strategic shareholder. The partnership aims to deeply integrate industrial and scenario-based resources, focusing on the application of perovskite battery technology in space energy systems. Collaboration will span technical R&D, on-orbit verification, industrialization, and scenario expansion.

This move marks a significant strategic inflection point for Junda. As a leading specialized photovoltaic (PV) cell manufacturer with nearly two decades of technological iteration experience (from BSF to PERC to TOPCon), the Company is leveraging its core competencies to enter the emerging high-value sector of space-based photovoltaics. With global low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation construction accelerating under the International Telecommunication Union’s (ITU) "first-come, first-served" spectrum allocation rules, the demand for efficient, lightweight, flexible, and low-cost space power solutions is surging. We estimate the global space PV market could reach a trillion-yuan scale by 2030.

Simultaneously, Junda’s recent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (H-share) in May 2025 has established it as the industry’s first A+H listed enterprise, providing a robust dual-capital platform to fund long-term R&D and capacity expansion. While the domestic PV industry continues to navigate a period of consolidation and price recovery ("anti-involution"), Junda’s overseas capacity ramp-up—particularly in Turkey—is expected to drive significant earnings growth from 2026 onwards.

Despite near-term headwinds reflected in the projected net loss for 2025, we maintain a BUY rating. The Company’s pivot to space PV represents a potent second-growth curve, while its traditional business benefits from improving industry dynamics and international diversification. We forecast a turnaround in profitability starting in 2026, with net attributable profits reaching CNY 577 million in 2026 and CNY 1.02 billion in 2027.

Key Takeaways

1. Strategic Entry into the Space Photovoltaics Frontier

The collaboration with Shangyi Optoelectronics is not merely a financial investment but a deep technological and industrial integration. By securing a foothold in space-based PV, Junda is positioning itself at the forefront of a nascent but rapidly expanding market.

• Market Catalyst: The urgency of securing orbital slots and spectrum rights has intensified global competition in commercial satellite networks. Space computing and LEO constellations are entering an explosive growth cycle.
• Technology Fit: Current space power solutions are evolving from prioritizing solely "reliability and efficiency" to requiring a comprehensive system capability that includes "high efficiency, light weight, low cost, and flexibility." Perovskite and perovskite-silicon tandem cells offer superior specific power (power-to-weight ratio) compared to traditional multi-junction III-V cells, making them ideal for space applications.
• Synergistic Value: Junda brings mature manufacturing expertise and scale, while Shangyi contributes specialized space-application technology. This互补 (complementary) relationship accelerates the transition from laboratory efficiency to mass production and on-orbit validation.

2. Technological Leadership and R&D Moat

Junda has demonstrated consistent leadership in PV cell technology transitions. Its historical success in migrating from BSF to PERC and subsequently to TOPCon provides a proven framework for adopting next-generation technologies.

• Perovskite Tandem Breakthrough: The Company’s jointly developed perovskite-silicon tandem cells have achieved a laboratory efficiency of 32.08%, placing it at the industry’s leading edge.
• Space-Specific Adaptation: The partnership will allow Junda to accumulate critical data on how perovskite and tandem structures perform under space conditions (radiation, thermal cycling, vacuum). This knowledge base is a significant barrier to entry for competitors lacking space-sector partnerships.
• Feedback Loop: Insights gained from space-grade requirements (extreme reliability, lightweighting) can reverse-engineer improvements into terrestrial modules, enhancing product quality and differentiation in the high-end ground market.

3. Financial Turnaround Driven by Global Capacity Expansion

While 2024 and 2025 reflect the trough of the PV cycle, the outlook for 2026–2027 is markedly positive due to structural changes in the Company’s footprint.

• Overseas Premium: The anticipated release of high-margin battery capacity in Turkey is a key driver. Overseas markets, particularly in Europe and emerging economies, offer better pricing power and margins compared to the saturated domestic Chinese market.
• Industry Consolidation Benefits: The domestic "anti-involution" policy environment is helping to stabilize supply chains and restore reasonable profit margins. As weaker players exit, leaders like Junda are poised to capture greater market share.
• Earnings Trajectory:
  • 2025E: Net loss of CNY 558 million (narrowing from CNY 591 million in 2024).
  • 2026E: Return to profitability with CNY 577 million net profit.
  • 2027E: Accelerated growth to CNY 1.02 billion net profit.

4. Capital Structure Optimization via A+H Listing

The dual-listing status provides Junda with unique financial flexibility.

• Funding Long-Term Innovation: Space PV R&D and initial industrialization are capital-intensive. Access to international capital markets allows Junda to fund these long-cycle projects without over-leveraging its balance sheet.
• Global Branding: An H-share listing enhances visibility among international institutional investors, aligning with the Company’s strategy of global capacity deployment and customer acquisition.

Detailed Analysis: The Space Photovoltaics Opportunity

The Macro Context: Orbital Real Estate and Energy Needs

The commercialization of space is no longer a futuristic concept but a present-day industrial reality. The primary driver is the race for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) dominance.

1. The "First-Come, First-Served" Imperative

The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) allocates orbital slots and frequency spectra on a "first-come, first-served" basis. This regulatory framework has triggered a global sprint among major powers and private entities to launch satellite constellations.
* Implication: This creates a sustained, multi-year demand for satellite manufacturing and launch services.
* Energy Constraint: Satellites are fundamentally energy-constrained platforms. The power available determines the payload capacity, communication bandwidth, and operational lifespan. Therefore, advancements in solar array technology are directly correlated with the economic viability of space missions.

2. Market Size Projection: The Trillion-Yuan Vision

Our analysis suggests that the space photovoltaics market is transitioning from a niche, government-funded segment to a massive commercial industry.
* Current State: Traditional space solar cells rely on Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) multi-junction cells. While highly efficient (>30%), they are extremely expensive, rigid, and heavy.
* Future Demand: As mega-constellations (thousands of satellites) become the norm, the cost per watt and weight per watt become critical metrics.
* Projection: We estimate that by 2030, the global market for space-based photovoltaics—including manufacturing, deployment, and associated energy management systems—could approach a trillion-yuan (RMB) valuation. This figure encompasses not only direct satellite power but also potential future applications such as space-based solar power (SBSP) transmission to Earth, although the latter remains a longer-term horizon.

Technological Shift: Why Perovskite?

The core thesis of Junda’s investment lies in the material science advantages of perovskite photovoltaics for space applications.

• Specific Power (W/kg): Perovskite cells can be fabricated on thin, flexible substrates (polymers or metal foils), drastically reducing the mass of the solar array. In space launch economics, every kilogram saved translates to thousands of dollars in launch cost reduction.
• Tandem Architecture: By stacking a perovskite top cell with a silicon bottom cell, Junda can capture a broader spectrum of sunlight, achieving efficiencies exceeding 32%. This surpasses the theoretical limit of single-junction silicon cells.
• Radiation Tolerance: Historically, perovskites were considered fragile. However, recent advancements in encapsulation and material composition have significantly improved their resistance to proton and electron radiation, making them viable for LEO environments.

The Junda-Shangyi Synergy Model

The partnership is structured to leverage the distinct strengths of both entities:

1. Junda Shares (The Industrializer):

   • Scale: Decades of experience in mass-producing PV cells with high yield rates.
   • Supply Chain: Established relationships with raw material suppliers and equipment manufacturers.
   • Quality Control: Rigorous ISO-standard manufacturing processes that can be adapted for aerospace-grade requirements.

2. Shangyi Optoelectronics (The Innovator):

   • Specialized R&D: Focus on space-specific cell architectures and packaging technologies.
   • Orbital Data: Access to testing facilities and potential early-stage on-orbit demonstration opportunities.
   • Agility: Ability to rapidly iterate designs based on experimental feedback.

Collaborative Mechanism:
* Joint R&D: Shared laboratories to optimize perovskite formulations for space durability.
* On-Orbit Verification: Jointly launching test payloads to validate performance in real space conditions. This is a critical de-risking step for commercial adoption.
* Industrialization: Junda will lead the scale-up of successful lab prototypes into manufacturable products, creating a standardized supply chain for space PV modules.

Company Overview: Junda Shares

Business Profile

Junda Shares is a leading independent supplier of high-efficiency photovoltaic cells. Unlike integrated module manufacturers, Junda focuses exclusively on the cell segment, allowing it to specialize in technological innovation and cost optimization.

• Core Product: N-type TOPCon cells, which currently dominate the high-efficiency market segment.
• Technological Heritage:
  • BSF Era: Early foundation in standard aluminum back surface field cells.
  • PERC Era: Successfully captured the market shift towards Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell technology.
  • TOPCon Era: Currently a leader in Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact technology, offering higher efficiency and lower degradation rates.
  • Next-Gen: Active development in HJT (Heterojunction) and Perovskite Tandem technologies.

Recent Corporate Milestone: A+H Listing

In May 2025, Junda completed its listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
* Significance: It became the first PV cell company to achieve dual listing in A-shares (Shenzhen/Shanghai) and H-shares (Hong Kong).
* Strategic Benefit:
* Capital Diversity: Access to both mainland Chinese liquidity and international institutional capital.
* Currency Hedging: Ability to raise funds in HKD/USD, naturally hedging against RMB fluctuations for its overseas investments.
* M&A Currency: H-shares can potentially be used as currency for international mergers and acquisitions, facilitating faster global expansion.

Financial Analysis and Forecasts

Historical Performance Review (2022–2024)

The past three years have been characterized by extreme volatility in the PV sector, driven by rapid capacity expansion followed by severe price wars.

• 2022: A year of strong growth. Revenue reached CNY 11.6 billion, with net profit of CNY 717 million. The company benefited from the early adoption of N-type technology.
• 2023: Revenue surged to CNY 18.7 billion (+60.9% YoY), and net profit grew to CNY 816 million. This was the peak of the cycle, driven by high demand and premium pricing for N-type cells.
• 2024: The market turned sharply. Revenue collapsed to CNY 9.95 billion (-46.7% YoY), and the company recorded a net loss of CNY 591 million.
  • Drivers of Loss:
    1. Price Collapse: Cell prices fell below cash cost for many producers due to oversupply.
    2. Asset Impairment: Significant write-downs on older P-type capacity and inventory.
    3. Margin Compression: Gross margin dropped to near zero (0.7%), reflecting the brutal competitive landscape.

Forward-Looking Estimates (2025–2027)

We project a U-shaped recovery, with 2025 serving as the bottoming-out year and 2026–2027 marking a robust return to growth.

Income Statement Projections

(Source: Guojin Securities Research Institute Estimates)

Key Financial Drivers

1. Revenue Contraction in 2025E:

   • We expect revenue to decline further to CNY 7.98 billion in 2025. This reflects the continued exit of inefficient capacity and a conservative recognition of sales volumes as the company restructures its product mix. It also accounts for the time lag in ramping up new overseas facilities.

2. Margin Recovery in 2026E–2027E:

   • Gross Margin Expansion: From a negative -2.9% in 2025E to 7.8% in 2026E and 13.0% in 2027E.
   • Reasoning:
     • Turkey Plant: The new high-efficiency cell capacity in Turkey is expected to come online in late 2025/early 2026. European and surrounding markets offer significantly higher prices than China. We estimate the Turkey plant could contribute disproportionately to profits due to this geographic arbitrage.
     • Domestic Stabilization: As the "anti-involution" policies take hold, domestic prices are expected to stabilize above cash costs, allowing for modest but positive margins.
     • Product Mix: Higher proportion of TOPCon and emerging tandem cells commanding premium pricing.

3. Expense Management:

   • R&D: R&D expenses are projected to remain stable around CNY 112–147 million annually. This indicates a focused approach rather than indiscriminate spending, prioritizing high-impact projects like space PV and tandem cells.
   • Administrative & Sales: These costs are expected to decrease as a percentage of revenue, benefiting from operating leverage as revenues recover.

4. Investment Income:

   • Notably, investment income is forecasted to jump to CNY 275 million in 2026 and CNY 344 million in 2027. This may reflect returns from strategic investments (potentially including stakes in upstream/downstream partners or the Shangyi collaboration) or financial management gains from the H-share proceeds.

Balance Sheet Health

• Liquidity: The company maintains a healthy cash position, growing to CNY 4.8 billion by 2027. This provides a sufficient buffer for R&D and CAPEX.
• Leverage: The debt-to-asset ratio peaks in 2025 at 80.9% but begins to decline thereafter as profitability returns and retained earnings rebuild equity.
• Net Debt Position: The net debt-to-equity ratio improves significantly, turning negative by 2027 (-25.9%), indicating a net cash position. This deleveraging is crucial for funding the capital-intensive space PV initiatives.

Cash Flow Analysis

• Operating Cash Flow (OCF): Expected to be minimal in 2025 (CNY 30 million) due to working capital adjustments and low margins. However, it rebounds strongly to CNY 776 million in 2026 and CNY 1.14 billion in 2027.
• Investing Cash Flow: Significant outflows are expected in 2025 (CNY -962 million) for CAPEX related to the Turkey plant and R&D infrastructure. This tapers off in subsequent years as major projects complete.
• Financing Cash Flow: The company utilized debt financing in 2024–2025 to bridge the cycle trough. From 2026 onwards, financing activities normalize, with some debt repayment observed.

Valuation and Investment Rating

Peer Comparison and Relative Valuation

Junda operates in a specialized niche (independent cell supplier) which makes direct peer comparison complex. However, we compare it against integrated PV leaders and other technology-focused manufacturers.

• P/E Ratio:

  • Given the projected losses in 2024 and 2025, P/E is negative.
  • For 2026E, the P/E is estimated at 25.1x.
  • For 2027E, the P/E drops to 14.2x.
  • Interpretation: A forward P/E of 14.2x for a high-growth technology leader with a new space-based growth engine is attractive. Typical PV hardware companies trade at 10–15x during mature phases, but tech-leaders with disruptive pipelines often command a premium (20x+).

• P/B Ratio:

  • 2025E P/B: 4.35x
  • 2026E P/B: 3.91x
  • 2027E P/B: 3.31x
  • Interpretation: The P/B ratio is declining as book value recovers through retained earnings. A P/B of ~3.3x is reasonable for a company with high ROE potential (projected 23.3% in 2027).

• ROE (Return on Equity):

  • Projected to surge from -16.75% in 2025 to 23.33% in 2027. This dramatic improvement underscores the operational leverage and margin recovery story.

Rating: BUY

We maintain a BUY rating on Junda Shares.

Rationale:
1. Asymmetric Upside: The market currently prices Junda based on its terrestrial PV business, which is in a recovery phase. The optionality provided by the space PV venture is largely unpriced. If the space market develops as projected, this represents a significant call option on future growth.
2. Cycle Bottoming: The worst of the industry price war appears to be behind us. 2025 is likely the earnings trough. Investing now allows capturing the full upswing of the 2026–2027 recovery.
3. Strategic Moat: The combination of TOPCon leadership, perovskite R&D progress, and the Shangyi partnership creates a multi-layered technological moat that is difficult for pure-play manufacturers to replicate quickly.
4. Global Diversification: The Turkey facility mitigates geopolitical risks associated with US/EU tariffs on Chinese-made goods, ensuring access to lucrative Western markets.

(Note: The original report did not specify a numeric Target Price, but maintained the "Buy" rating. Based on the 2027 EPS of CNY 3.49 and a conservative 15x P/E multiple, the implied fair value would be approximately CNY 52.35, with upside potential if the space narrative gains traction.)

Risks and Headwinds

Investors must consider the following risks, which could materially impact the Company’s financial performance and stock price.

1. Industry Price Volatility

• Risk: The PV industry is historically cyclical. If new capacity enters the market faster than demand grows, prices could fall again, delaying the margin recovery expected in 2026.
• Impact: Could extend the period of losses or reduce the magnitude of the 2026–2027 profit rebound.

2. Technology Execution Risk

• Risk: Perovskite technology, while promising, faces challenges in long-term stability and large-area uniformity. Space applications require extreme reliability. Failure to meet on-orbit performance targets could delay commercialization.
• Impact: R&D costs may escalate without corresponding revenue, and the strategic "space story" could lose credibility.

3. Intensifying Competition

• Risk: Other major PV players (e.g., LONGi, JinkoSolar, Trina) are also investing in perovskite and tandem technologies. Additionally, specialized space-tech firms may enter the energy sector.
• Impact: Erosion of Junda’s technological lead and compression of margins in both terrestrial and space markets.

4. Geopolitical and Trade Risks

• Risk: Despite the Turkey plant, Junda remains a Chinese-headquartered company. Escalating trade barriers (tariffs, entity lists) in the US or EU could restrict market access or supply chain connectivity.
• Impact: Reduced sales volume in high-margin overseas markets; potential supply chain disruptions for key materials.

5. Space Market Adoption Rate

• Risk: The projection of a "trillion-yuan" space PV market by 2030 is optimistic. If satellite launch costs do not decrease sufficiently, or if alternative power sources (e.g., nuclear RTGs for deep space, though not applicable to LEO) gain favor, demand may be lower than expected.
• Impact: The space PV division may remain a small, non-material contributor to earnings for longer than anticipated.

Investment View and Strategic Implications

The "Second Curve" Thesis

Junda Shares is executing a classic "Second Curve" strategy.
* First Curve (Terrestrial PV): Currently in a mature, consolidating phase. The goal here is efficiency and cash flow generation. By optimizing TOPCon production and expanding into Turkey, Junda aims to maximize margins in a slower-growth environment.
* Second Curve (Space PV): In the embryonic, high-growth phase. The goal here is market creation and technological leadership. The investment in Shangyi is a bet on the future commoditization of space energy.

For institutional investors, this duality offers a balanced risk-reward profile. The terrestrial business provides a floor (as it recovers), while the space business provides the ceiling (upside optionality).

Why Now?

1. Valuation Disconnect: The market is likely undervaluing the strategic significance of the Shangyi partnership, viewing it as a minor R&D project rather than a foundational shift in business model.
2. Policy Tailwinds: Both China’s push for commercial spaceflight ("Commercial Aerospace" included in national strategic emerging industries) and global LEO deployment trends provide a favorable macro backdrop.
3. Financial Clarity: With the 2025 loss largely priced in, the focus shifts to the 2026 turnaround. The visibility of the Turkey plant’s contribution adds certainty to the recovery narrative.

Actionable Insights for Investors

• Monitor On-Orbit Milestones: Key catalysts will be announcements regarding the first joint on-orbit verification mission with Shangyi. Success here will validate the technology and re-rate the stock.
• Track Turkey Plant Utilization: Quarterly reports should be scrutinized for the ramp-up rate and margin contribution of the Turkey facility. This is the immediate driver of earnings recovery.
• Watch R&D Efficiency: Monitor the ratio of R&D spend to patent filings/efficiency records. Junda needs to demonstrate that its R&D is translating into commercializable IP faster than competitors.

Appendix: Detailed Financial Tables

Table 1: Income Statement Summary (CNY Million)

Table 2: Balance Sheet Highlights (CNY Million)

Table 3: Cash Flow Statement Summary (CNY Million)

Table 4: Key Financial Ratios

Conclusion

Junda Shares stands at a pivotal juncture. The partnership with Shangyi Optoelectronics is a bold, strategic maneuver that transcends traditional PV manufacturing, positioning the Company as a potential leader in the nascent space energy economy. While the near-term financials reflect the broader industry's pain, the structural improvements in capacity layout (Turkey), technology stack (Perovskite/Tandem), and capital structure (A+H listing) lay the groundwork for a robust recovery.

For institutional investors, Junda offers a compelling blend of cyclical recovery play (terrestrial PV margins normalizing) and secular growth optionality (space PV market creation). The risks are tangible, particularly regarding technology execution and trade politics, but the potential rewards of capturing a share of the trillion-yuan space market justify a positive outlook. We recommend accumulating positions on weakness, with a focus on the 2026 earnings turnaround as the primary near-term catalyst.

Disclaimer:
This report is based on information provided by Guojin Securities and public data. It is intended for institutional investors and professional use only. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with independent financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Guojin Securities does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report.

Analyst Contact:
Yao Yao (S1130512080001)
Email: yaoy@gjzq.com.cn

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