Research report

Steady performance growth, new material businesses such as lithium battery materials enter harvest period

Published 2026-03-29 · Sinolink Securities · Yao Yao,Zhang Jiawen
Source: 003022_10847.html

Steady performance growth, new material businesses such as lithium battery materials enter harvest period

003022.SZBuyPhotovoltaic Equipment
Date2026-03-29
InstitutionSinolink Securities
AnalystsYao Yao,Zhang Jiawen
RatingBuy
IndustryPhotovoltaic Equipment
StockLevima Advanced Materials (003022)
Report typeStock

Lianhong New Materials (003022.SZ): Entering the Harvest Phase for New Energy Materials; Robust Growth Trajectory Confirmed

Date: March 28, 2025
Ticker: 003022.SZ
Sector: Chemicals / New Energy Materials
Current Price: CNY 19.79
Rating: BUY (Maintained)
Analysts: Yao Yao, Zhang Jiawen (Guojin Securities)


Executive Summary

Lianhong New Materials ("the Company" or "Lianhong") has successfully navigated a period of strategic capacity expansion and product portfolio optimization, culminating in a robust financial performance for the fiscal year 2025. On March 27, 2025, the Company disclosed its annual results, reporting total revenue of CNY 6.34 billion (+1.1% YoY) and attributable net profit of CNY 306 million (+30.4% YoY). Notably, the fourth quarter of 2025 demonstrated significant acceleration, with revenue rising 36.0% YoY to CNY 1.77 billion and net profit increasing 30.7% YoY to CNY 73 million. This performance aligns with market expectations and underscores the effectiveness of the Company’s transition from a traditional chemical manufacturer to a diversified new materials platform.

The core investment thesis for Lianhong New Materials rests on three pivotal pillars:
1. The "Harvest Phase" of New Energy Battery Materials: The commercialization and ramp-up of high-value products such as carbonate solvents, Ultra-High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE), and Vinylene Carbonate (VC) are beginning to contribute meaningfully to revenue and margins. Strategic partnerships in solid-state and sodium-ion battery technologies further secure long-term competitiveness.
2. Dominance in High-End Photovoltaic (PV) Materials: The Company’s Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate (EVA) resin business continues to generate strong cash flows with high gross margins (27.76% in 2025). The imminent commissioning of a new 200kt/year EVA plant and a 100kt/year Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) plant positions Lianhong to capture additional market share in the next generation of PV encapsulation materials.
3. Structural Cost Advantage & Margin Expansion: Leveraging a unique "Coal-to-Chemicals" integrated supply chain, the Company benefits from a widening spread between stable coal costs and rising oil-linked product prices. This structural advantage, combined with product mix optimization in specialty chemicals, is driving sustained profitability improvements.

We have adjusted our earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to CNY 584 million and CNY 783 million, respectively, and introduced a 2028 forecast of CNY 853 million. This implies year-over-year net profit growth rates of 91%, 34%, and 9% for the respective years. Given the Company’s established position as a leading new materials platform with visible growth drivers from new capacity releases, we maintain our BUY rating. The current valuation offers an attractive entry point for institutional investors seeking exposure to the secular growth trends in renewable energy materials and advanced chemical solutions.


Key Takeaways

1. Financial Performance: Resilient Top-Line, Accelerating Bottom-Line Growth

The fiscal year 2025 marked a turning point for Lianhong New Materials, characterized by a decoupling of top-line modesty from bottom-line strength. While revenue growth was muted at 1.1% YoY, reaching CNY 6.338 billion, this stability was achieved against a backdrop of volatile commodity cycles. More importantly, the quality of earnings improved significantly, with attributable net profit surging 30.4% YoY to CNY 306 million.

Quarterly Momentum Analysis

The fourth quarter (Q4) 2025 data is particularly instructive for assessing the Company’s near-term trajectory. Q4 revenue reached CNY 1.769 billion, representing a substantial 36.0% year-over-year increase and a 6.8% quarter-over-quarter sequential growth. Net profit in Q4 stood at CNY 73 million, up 30.7% YoY and 2.2% QoQ. This acceleration suggests that the new capacities commissioned in late 2025 began contributing to sales volumes earlier than anticipated, or that existing lines operated at higher utilization rates due to strong demand.

Metric FY 2024 FY 2025 YoY Change Q4 2025 QoQ Change YoY Change (Q4)
Revenue (CNY Mn) 6,268 6,338 +1.1% 1,769 +6.8% +36.0%
Net Profit (CNY Mn) 234 306 +30.4% 73 +2.2% +30.7%
Gross Margin (%) ~16.5% ~18.7% +2.2 pp N/A N/A N/A
Net Margin (%) 3.7% 4.8% +1.1 pp N/A N/A N/A

Source: Company Annual Report, Guojin Securities Research Institute

The improvement in net margin from 3.7% in 2024 to 4.8% in 2025 reflects successful cost management and a shift towards higher-margin product mixes. The operating leverage is becoming evident as fixed costs are spread over increasing production volumes from new facilities.

2. Business Segment Deep Dive: The Three Engines of Growth

Lianhong’s business model is structured around three core segments: New Energy Battery Materials, New Energy Photovoltaic Materials, and Specialty Materials. Each segment is undergoing distinct structural changes that collectively drive the Company’s overall value proposition.

A. New Energy Battery Materials: From Investment to Contribution

This segment represents the most significant growth vector for Lianhong. In 2025, the segment generated revenue of CNY 455 million, accounting for 7.2% of total revenue. While the percentage share may appear modest, the strategic importance and growth rate are paramount. The segment is transitioning from a capital-intensive build-out phase to a revenue-generating "harvest" phase.

Key Product Dynamics:

  • Carbonate Solvents: These essential components for lithium-ion battery electrolytes have achieved stable supply status. The Company has secured contracts with leading electrolyte manufacturers, ensuring a steady baseline revenue stream. The quality consistency of Lianhong’s solvents has been validated by top-tier clients, reducing customer switching risks.
  • Ultra-High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE): Used primarily in battery separators, the UHMWPE facility maintained high-load stable operations throughout 2025. The product achieved a "full production, full sales" status, indicating strong demand-supply balance. The Company has established stable cooperative relationships with head customers in the separator industry, providing visibility into future orders.
  • Vinylene Carbonate (VC): A critical additive for enhancing battery cycle life and safety. The Company’s 4,000 tons/year VC production line was completed and commenced operations in December 2025. A key competitive advantage here is vertical integration: the VC plant uses self-produced Ethylene Carbonate (EC) as its primary raw material. This internal supply chain mitigates raw material price volatility and enhances overall unit economics compared to peers who must purchase EC on the open market.

Strategic Forward-Looking Initiatives:

Lianhong is not merely reacting to current market demands but is proactively positioning itself for next-generation battery technologies:
1. Solid-State Batteries: The Company has formed a joint venture holding subsidiary with WeLion New Energy (a leader in solid-state battery technology). This partnership focuses on the development of key functional materials for solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries. Given WeLion’s technological leadership, this alliance provides Lianhong with early access to emerging material specifications and potential exclusive supply agreements.
2. Sodium-Ion Batteries: Lianhong has made a strategic investment in Wenzhou Nashu, a company engaged in the development of sodium-ion batteries and related materials. Sodium-ion technology is gaining traction as a cost-effective alternative for energy storage systems (ESS) and entry-level electric vehicles. This investment diversifies Lianhong’s exposure beyond lithium-based chemistries, hedging against long-term lithium supply constraints.

Investment Implication: The battery materials segment is expected to see exponential revenue growth in 2026-2027 as the VC plant ramps up to full capacity and the joint ventures begin commercializing pilot products. The margin profile of this segment is likely to improve as economies of scale are realized.

B. New Energy Photovoltaic (PV) Materials: Cash Cow with Upside Optionality

The PV materials segment, dominated by EVA (Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate) copolymer resin, remains the primary profit driver for Lianhong. In 2025, this segment contributed CNY 1.73 billion in revenue, representing approximately 27.3% of total sales. Crucially, it delivered a gross margin of 27.76%, significantly above the corporate average, highlighting its role as a cash generator.

Operational Excellence in 2025:
* Product Mix Optimization: The Company’s existing EVA facilities were dedicated entirely to producing high-value-added grades, specifically those required for high-efficiency solar modules. This strategic decision to avoid low-end commodity grades protected margins despite broader market competition.
* Record Volumes: Both production and sales volumes hit historical highs, demonstrating the Company’s ability to maximize asset utilization during peak demand periods.

Capacity Expansion Catalysts:
The future growth of this segment is underpinned by two major capacity additions:
1. 200kt/year EVA Plant: Commissioned in December 2025, this new facility significantly doubles the Company’s EVA production capability. The timing coincides with the global solar industry’s continued shift towards N-type cells and double-glass modules, which require higher-quality, thicker EVA films. The new plant is designed to produce these premium grades, ensuring that the additional volume does not dilute margins.
2. 100kt/year POE Plant: Scheduled for commissioning in 2Q 2026, this Polyolefin Elastomer facility represents a strategic leap forward. POE is increasingly preferred over EVA for high-efficiency modules due to its superior water vapor barrier properties and anti-PID (Potential Induced Degradation) performance. Currently, high-end POE supply is tight globally, with significant import dependence in China. Lianhong’s entry into domestic POE production positions it to capture a high-margin niche market, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers and enhancing its bargaining power with module manufacturers.

Investment Implication: The PV segment provides the financial stability needed to fund R&D and other expansions. The addition of POE capacity in 2026 will likely re-rate the segment’s valuation multiple, as POE commands a premium price and offers higher barriers to entry than standard EVA.

C. Specialty Materials: Margin Enhancement through Product Upgrading

The specialty materials segment, focusing on EOD (Ethylene Oxide Derivatives) and surfactants, demonstrated resilience through structural optimization rather than volume growth. In 2025, the Company focused on shifting its product portfolio towards high-value-added special surfactants.

  • Volume Growth: Sales volume of high-value special surfactants increased by approximately 12.6% YoY.
  • Profit Contribution: The proportion of sales and gross profit contributed by high-end application products increased. This indicates successful penetration into niche markets such as personal care, industrial cleaning, and textile auxiliaries where performance specifications outweigh price sensitivity.

Investment Implication: This segment acts as a stabilizer. While it may not offer the explosive growth of battery materials, its consistent cash flow and improving margin profile contribute to the overall robustness of Lianhong’s earnings. The focus on "specialty" rather than "commodity" chemicals insulates the business from severe cyclical downturns.

3. Macro-Economic Tailwinds: The Coal-Oil Spread Advantage

A critical, often underappreciated driver of Lianhong’s profitability is its feedstock advantage. The Company’s primary production route utilizes coal-based methanol and other coal-derived intermediates. In contrast, many competing chemical producers rely on naphtha or other oil-derived feedstocks.

Market Dynamics in Early 2025:
* Oil Prices: In March 2025, crude oil prices surged, pulling up the prices of oil-derived chemical products and competitors' costs.
* Coal Prices: Conversely, domestic coal prices remained relatively stable.

Impact on Lianhong:
This divergence has significantly widened the "coal-oil spread." For Lianhong, this means:
1. Cost Stability: Its input costs (coal) did not rise in tandem with output prices.
2. Price Realization: It was able to raise selling prices in line with the oil-linked market benchmarks.
3. Margin Expansion: The result is an immediate expansion in gross margins across its product lines, particularly in EVA and specialty chemicals where pricing is often linked to global petrochemical benchmarks.

This structural advantage is not transient; it is embedded in the Company’s asset base. As long as the correlation between oil and coal prices remains imperfect (which is historically typical due to different supply/demand fundamentals), Lianhong will enjoy a relative cost advantage over oil-based competitors during periods of high oil prices.

4. Financial Health and Capital Allocation

An analysis of the balance sheet and cash flow statements reveals a company in a heavy investment phase, transitioning towards a cash-generation phase.

Balance Sheet Strengths and Considerations:
* Asset Base: Total assets grew to CNY 24.57 billion in 2025, driven by the completion of new production facilities (Fixed Assets rose to CNY 18.22 billion). This asset-heavy structure is typical for chemical manufacturers but requires efficient utilization to generate returns.
* Liquidity: Monetary funds stood at CNY 1.60 billion. While sufficient for short-term obligations, the Company maintains a significant debt load to finance its expansion.
* Debt Profile: Short-term borrowings were CNY 5.34 billion, and long-term loans were CNY 8.06 billion. The net debt-to-equity ratio increased to 145.28%. While elevated, this is manageable given the predictable cash flows from the EVA business and the upcoming revenue surge from new projects. The EBIT interest coverage ratio improved to 3.5x in 2025 and is projected to reach 5.1x in 2026, indicating strengthening ability to service debt.

Cash Flow Dynamics:
* Operating Cash Flow (OCF): Generated CNY 587 million in 2025. This positive OCF confirms that core operations are cash-positive, even after working capital changes.
* Investing Cash Flow: Outflow of CNY 4.26 billion, reflecting the intense capital expenditure (CapEx) cycle associated with the new EVA, VC, and POE plants.
* Financing Cash Flow: Inflow of CNY 3.28 billion, primarily through debt issuance, supporting the CapEx program.

Outlook: As major CapEx projects conclude in 2025-2026, free cash flow is expected to turn significantly positive. The forecasted OCF for 2026 is CNY 1.39 billion, more than double the 2025 level, while CapEx is expected to decline to CNY 2.43 billion. This inflection point will allow the Company to deleverage and potentially initiate or increase dividend payouts in the medium term.


Risks / Headwinds

While the investment case for Lianhong New Materials is compelling, institutional investors must consider the following risks, which could impact the realization of our earnings forecasts and target price.

1. New Capacity Ramp-Up Risks

  • Execution Risk: The projected earnings growth for 2026-2028 is heavily dependent on the successful commissioning and ramp-up of the 200kt/year EVA plant and the 100kt/year POE plant. Any technical delays, operational teething problems, or slower-than-expected yield improvements could push revenue recognition into later periods.
  • Utilization Rates: Achieving "full production, full sales" requires robust demand. If downstream solar or battery manufacturers face inventory corrections or demand slowdowns, Lianhong may face lower utilization rates, leading to higher unit fixed costs and margin compression.

2. Product Price Volatility

  • Cyclicality: The chemical industry is inherently cyclical. While the coal-oil spread is currently favorable, a sharp decline in crude oil prices would narrow this spread, reducing Lianhong’s competitive cost advantage. Conversely, if coal prices rise sharply due to regulatory or supply constraints, input costs would increase.
  • Oversupply in PV Materials: The solar industry has seen massive capacity expansions globally. If the supply of EVA and POE outpaces demand growth, prices could fall, compressing the currently high gross margins (27.76%) of the PV segment. Although POE has higher barriers to entry, it is not immune to price pressure if multiple domestic players come online simultaneously.

3. Technological Disruption in Battery Materials

  • Battery Chemistry Shifts: The battery sector is evolving rapidly. While Lianhong is investing in solid-state and sodium-ion technologies, there is no guarantee that these technologies will achieve mass commercialization on the expected timeline. If alternative battery chemistries (e.g., lithium-sulfur, air-zinc) gain prominence, or if the demand for specific additives like VC diminishes due to new electrolyte formulations, the ROI on these investments could be lower than anticipated.
  • Customer Concentration: The battery materials segment relies on partnerships with key players like WeLion. Any change in these strategic relationships or failure of key partners to scale could impact Lianhong’s sales pipeline.

4. Regulatory and Environmental Policies

  • Carbon Neutrality Goals: As a coal-based chemical producer, Lianhong faces long-term regulatory pressures regarding carbon emissions. Stricter environmental regulations could necessitate additional capital expenditures for carbon capture or efficiency upgrades, impacting profitability.
  • Energy Policy: Changes in national energy policies affecting coal mining or usage could disrupt the stable supply of raw materials.

5. Financial Leverage

  • Interest Rate Sensitivity: With a net debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 140%, the Company is sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. An increase in borrowing costs would directly impact net profit through higher financial expenses.
  • Refinancing Risk: The Company has significant short-term borrowings (CNY 5.34 billion). Ensuring smooth refinancing of these debts in potentially tighter credit markets is crucial for liquidity management.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Outlook: New Energy Materials & Advanced Chemicals

The broader sector for new energy materials is entering a phase of consolidation and differentiation. The era of easy growth driven by sheer capacity expansion is giving way to a competition based on:
1. Cost Leadership: Companies with integrated supply chains (like Lianhong’s coal integration) or superior process engineering will survive margin compression.
2. Technological Moats: Products with high technical barriers (such as POE, high-purity VC, and solid-state battery materials) will command premium valuations.
3. Customer Stickiness: Long-term agreements with tier-1 battery and solar module manufacturers provide revenue visibility.

Within this context, Lianhong New Materials is well-positioned. It is not merely a commodity player but is actively moving up the value chain. The sector outlook remains Positive, driven by the global energy transition, although investors should expect heightened volatility in quarterly earnings as supply-demand balances adjust.

Valuation Analysis

We employ a combination of Relative Valuation (P/E) and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodologies to derive our investment view.

Relative Valuation:
Based on our adjusted earnings forecasts:
* 2026E EPS: CNY 0.437
* 2027E EPS: CNY 0.586
* Current Price: CNY 19.79

The implied Forward P/E ratios are:
* 2026E P/E: ~45.3x
* 2027E P/E: ~33.8x
* 2028E P/E: ~31.0x

Historically, high-growth new material companies in China trade at P/E multiples ranging from 30x to 50x during their expansion phases. Lianhong’s current valuation of ~45x for 2026 earnings is justified by its exceptional projected growth rate of 91% in net profit. As growth normalizes to 34% in 2027 and 9% in 2028, the multiple compression to ~31x is natural and healthy. Compared to peers in the EVA and battery additive space, Lianhong offers a balanced mix of stable cash flow (from EVA) and high-growth optionality (from battery materials), warranting a premium to pure-play commodity chemical firms.

PEG Ratio Consideration:
Using the 2026 growth rate of 91%, the PEG ratio is well below 1.0, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its growth potential. Even using a more conservative 3-year CAGR, the PEG remains attractive.

Market Consensus:
According to recent market data, analyst sentiment is strongly positive. Within the last six months, all four covering reports have issued a "Buy" rating, with an average score of 1.00. This consensus reinforces our view that the institutional community recognizes the inflection point in Lianhong’s earnings trajectory.

Year Revenue (CNY Mn) Net Profit (CNY Mn) EPS (CNY) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
2024A 6,268 234 0.176 86.5 3.56 3.24%
2025A 6,338 306 0.229 78.4 2.54 4.11%
2026E 10,177 584 0.437 45.3 3.38 7.46%
2027E 11,311 783 0.586 33.8 3.16 9.35%
2028E 11,520 853 0.639 31.0 2.95 9.51%

Note: P/E and P/B ratios calculated based on current price of CNY 19.79. Source: Guojin Securities Research Institute.

The table illustrates a clear trend of multiple compression accompanied by earnings expansion. The drop in P/E from 86x (2025) to 45x (2026E) reflects the market pricing in the massive earnings jump. For long-term investors, the focus should be on the sustainability of the 2027-2028 earnings base, where the P/E settles into a more mature 30-33x range, supported by a robust ROE approaching 10%.


Investment View

Core Investment Logic

1. Platform Transformation Validated:
Lianhong New Materials has successfully executed its strategy to transform from a single-product (EVA) company into a diversified new materials platform. The 2025 annual report confirms that this transformation is not just rhetorical but financial. The contribution of battery materials, while still small in absolute terms, is growing rapidly and is backed by tangible assets (VC plant) and strategic alliances (WeLion, Wenzhou Nashu). This diversification reduces the company's reliance on the solar cycle alone, de-risking the investment profile.

2. Visible Earnings Inflection in 2026:
The most compelling aspect of the investment case is the visibility of earnings growth for 2026. With the 200kt EVA plant fully operational and the 4kt VC plant ramping up, revenue is projected to jump by 60.6% to CNY 10.18 billion. This is not speculative; it is based on installed capacity and known market demand. The projected 91% growth in net profit to CNY 584 million provides a strong cushion against minor operational hiccups or market fluctuations. For institutional investors, this visibility allows for confident positioning ahead of the earnings release cycle in 2026.

3. Structural Cost Advantage as a Moat:
In a commodity-driven industry, cost leadership is the ultimate moat. Lianhong’s coal-based integration provides a structural cost advantage that is difficult for competitors to replicate without significant capital expenditure and time. As long as the coal-oil spread remains favorable, Lianhong will enjoy higher margins than its oil-based peers. This advantage is particularly potent in the EVA business, where it allows the Company to remain profitable even if EVA prices soften due to industry-wide oversupply.

4. Optionality on Next-Gen Technologies:
The investments in solid-state battery materials and POE provide valuable call options on future technological trends. If solid-state batteries achieve commercial breakthroughs sooner than expected, Lianhong’s joint venture with WeLion could become a significant value driver. Similarly, if POE demand surges due to stricter module reliability standards, the 100kt plant commissioned in 2Q 2026 will be perfectly positioned to capture this premium market. These options add upside potential to our base case valuation.

Strategic Recommendations for Institutional Investors

For Long-Term Growth Portfolios:
Lianhong New Materials represents a core holding in the new energy materials sector. The combination of a cash-generating legacy business (EVA) and high-growth emerging businesses (Battery Materials, POE) offers a balanced risk-reward profile. Investors should accumulate positions on any market weakness, viewing the current valuation as reasonable given the 2026-2027 growth trajectory. The expected improvement in free cash flow post-2026 also opens the possibility of dividend initiation, which could further attract income-oriented institutional capital.

For Event-Driven Strategies:
Key catalysts to monitor include:
* Q1-Q2 2026: Official commissioning and first production from the 100kt POE plant. Positive news flow here could trigger a re-rating of the PV segment.
* Mid-2026: Updates from the WeLion joint venture regarding solid-state material prototypes or pilot orders.
* Quarterly Earnings Releases: Watch for gross margin trends in the battery materials segment. An expansion in margins here would signal that the "harvest phase" is yielding higher profitability than anticipated.

Risk Management:
Investors should hedge against oil price volatility. A sharp drop in crude oil prices could negatively impact the coal-oil spread thesis. Additionally, monitoring the inventory levels of downstream solar module manufacturers is crucial; a buildup in inventory could signal a short-term demand slowdown, affecting EVA sales volumes.

Conclusion

Lianhong New Materials stands at the cusp of a significant growth cycle. The 2025 annual results serve as a confirmation of the Company’s operational excellence and strategic foresight. With new capacities coming online, a favorable cost structure, and strategic footholds in next-generation battery technologies, the Company is well-equipped to deliver sustained earnings growth over the next three years.

We maintain our BUY rating. The projected earnings growth of 91% in 2026 and 34% in 2027 provides a compelling fundamental backdrop for stock appreciation. Institutional investors should consider Lianhong New Materials as a prime beneficiary of the ongoing energy transition, offering both defensive characteristics through its integrated cost structure and offensive potential through its new material innovations.


Appendix: Detailed Financial Forecasts & Assumptions

1. Revenue Forecast Breakdown

Our revenue forecast assumes the following drivers for each segment:

A. Photovoltaic Materials (EVA/POE):
* 2026: Revenue expected to surge due to the full-year contribution of the new 200kt EVA plant. We assume an average selling price (ASP) stabilization but volume doubling. The POE plant contributes partially in H2 2026.
* 2027-2028: Growth moderates as the base expands. POE becomes a significant contributor, offsetting any potential ASP decline in standard EVA. We assume a slight price erosion in EVA due to industry capacity additions, compensated by volume and POE mix.

B. New Energy Battery Materials:
* 2026: Significant jump in revenue from the 4kt VC plant running at full capacity and increased sales of carbonate solvents and UHMWPE. We assume successful qualification of products with additional tier-1 battery clients.
* 2027-2028: Continued growth driven by the scaling of the WeLion joint venture products and broader adoption of sodium-ion materials from the Wenzhou Nashu investment. We assume a gradual increase in ASP for specialized battery additives as technology matures.

C. Specialty Materials:
* Steady Growth: We project low-to-mid single-digit volume growth, driven by the continued shift to high-value surfactants. Revenue growth is expected to track slightly above GDP, with margin expansion being the primary driver of profit growth in this segment.

2. Margin Assumptions

  • Gross Margin: We forecast a gradual expansion in consolidated gross margin from 18.7% in 2025 to 20.0% in 2028. This is driven by:
    • Higher margin contribution from POE (expected >30% gross margin).
    • Economies of scale in the battery materials segment.
    • Sustained coal-oil spread advantage.
  • Operating Margin: Expected to improve from 6.6% in 2025 to 10.4% in 2028. This reflects operating leverage as revenue grows faster than fixed SG&A and R&D costs. R&D expenses are projected to remain at ~4% of sales, ensuring continuous innovation without disproportionate cost burden.

3. Working Capital & Cash Flow

  • Inventory Days: We assume inventory days stabilize around 55 days, reflecting efficient supply chain management despite higher raw material holdings for new plants.
  • Receivables Days: Maintained at ~10 days, indicative of strong bargaining power with downstream customers.
  • CapEx: Capital expenditure is forecast to decline from CNY 4.26 billion in 2025 to CNY 2.43 billion in 2026 and further to CNY 735 million in 2027, reflecting the completion of the major expansion cycle. This will lead to a significant improvement in Free Cash Flow (FCF), turning positive and substantial in 2027-2028.

4. Sensitivity Analysis

To provide a range of outcomes, we have conducted a sensitivity analysis on the key variables: Oil Price and EVA Spread.

Scenario Oil Price Trend EVA Spread Impact on 2026 Net Profit Implied 2026 P/E
Bull Case Rising Widening +15% vs Base ~39x
Base Case Stable Stable Base Forecast ~45x
Bear Case Falling Narrowing -15% vs Base ~53x

Even in the Bear Case, where the cost advantage erodes, the volume growth from new capacities ensures that net profit still grows significantly YoY, keeping the valuation within a reasonable range for a growth stock.


Disclaimer and Legal Information

Important Disclosures:
This report is prepared by Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. ("Guojin Securities") for institutional investors and professional clients only. It is not intended for retail investors. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Guojin Securities makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information.

No Investment Advice:
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. The views expressed herein are those of the analysts at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

Conflict of Interest:
Guojin Securities and its affiliates may have positions in the securities mentioned in this report and may engage in trading activities related to these securities. Guojin Securities may also provide investment banking or other services to the companies covered in this report.

Copyright:
© 2025 Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of Guojin Securities, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law.

Analyst Certification:
The analysts named in this report certify that all of the views expressed herein accurately reflect their personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. They also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Contact Information:
* Shanghai Office: 5th Floor, Zizhu International Building, No. 1088 Fangdian Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai. Tel: 021-80234211
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