Research report

Core Business Bottoming Out, Earnings Beat Expectations; Aerospace Energy New Business Forms Closed Loop

Published 2026-04-10 · Sinolink Securities · Yao Yao
Source: 002865.html

Core Business Bottoming Out, Earnings Beat Expectations; Aerospace Energy New Business Forms Closed Loop

002865.SZBuyPhotovoltaic Equipment
Date2026-04-10
InstitutionSinolink Securities
AnalystsYao Yao
RatingBuy
IndustryPhotovoltaic Equipment
StockJunda Shares (002865)
Report typeStock

Equity Research: Junda Shares (002865.SZ)

Turning Point Confirmed: Core Business Bottoms Out, New Aerospace Energy Loop Creates Long-Term Alpha

Date: April 9, 2026
Analyst: Institutional Research Team
Rating: BUY
Current Price: CNY 72.92
Target Price: Implied Upside >15% (Based on 2026E Valuation)


Executive Summary

On April 9, 2026, Junda Shares released its first-quarter financial results for 2026, marking a definitive inflection point in the company’s operational and financial trajectory. The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of CNY 1.694 billion and achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 14.16 million. Crucially, this represents a turnaround from losses in both the year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter comparisons, significantly exceeding market expectations. This performance validates our thesis that the company has successfully navigated the trough of the photovoltaic (PV) cycle and is now poised for sustained profitability driven by structural improvements in its core business and strategic expansion into high-barrier aerospace energy sectors.

The core investment logic rests on three pillars:
1. Core Business Recovery & Margin Expansion: The domestic and international PV cell markets have seen price stabilization and recovery, particularly for high-efficiency TOPCon products. Junda’s strong overseas presence (51% of 2025 revenue) has allowed it to capture premium pricing in key markets like Europe, India, and Turkey, insulated partially from domestic commoditization. Furthermore, significant asset impairments taken in late 2025 have "cleaned up" the balance sheet, leading to a dramatic 14.87 percentage point (ppt) improvement in gross margin to 13.54% in Q1 2026.
2. Strategic Aerospace Energy Closed-Loop: The company is rapidly constructing a unique "Battery Materials – Energy Systems – Whole Satellite Platform" ecosystem. Through its subsidiary Jietai Aerospace and the recent acquisition/control of "Xuntian Qianhe" (a scarce commercial satellite integrator), Junda is positioning itself as a leader in space-based solar power (SBSP). Xuntian Qianhe’s capabilities in complex satellite integration, high-power supply (20KW), and high-speed laser communication provide a formidable moat.
3. Financial Health & Valuation Reset: The company’s debt-to-asset ratio has improved to 75%, down 2.69 ppt from year-end 2025. With projected net profits of CNY 791 million, CNY 1.082 billion, and CNY 1.415 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, the forward P/E multiples compress to attractive levels (29.7x, 21.7x, and 16.6x), offering a compelling risk-reward profile for long-term institutional investors.

We maintain our BUY rating. The convergence of cyclical recovery in the PV sector and the secular growth potential of the commercial aerospace economy creates a dual-engine growth model that is currently underappreciated by the broader market.


Key Takeaways

1. Q1 2026 Performance: A Decisive Turnaround

The first quarter of 2026 serves as a critical validation of Junda Shares’ restructuring and market positioning strategies. While revenue declined sequentially by 9.63% to CNY 1.694 billion—a typical seasonal fluctuation in the PV industry—the quality of earnings has improved markedly.

  • Profitability Inflection: The company reported a net profit of CNY 14.16 million, turning profitable after significant losses in previous periods. This beat consensus estimates, signaling that management’s cost-control measures and product mix optimization are yielding tangible results.
  • Margin Reconstruction: The most striking metric is the gross margin expansion. Q1 2026 gross margin stood at 13.54%, a substantial increase of 14.87 percentage points compared to the end of 2025. This surge is not merely a function of rising sales prices but is deeply rooted in the reduction of unit costs following the massive write-downs of impaired assets and credit losses (totaling CNY 440 million) in late 2025. By clearing these historical burdens, the company has effectively lowered its break-even point and enhanced operating leverage.
  • Balance Sheet Optimization: The debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 75% in Q1 2026, down 2.69 ppt from the end of 2025. This deleveraging improves financial flexibility and reduces interest expense pressure, contributing directly to the bottom-line recovery.

2. Core Business Dynamics: Pricing Power and Overseas Resilience

The global photovoltaic landscape in early 2026 has been characterized by a divergence between domestic and international markets, with Junda Shares strategically leveraging its overseas footprint to maximize margins.

A. Price Recovery in High-Efficiency Cells
The market for N-type TOPCon cells, particularly the 183mm format, has shown signs of stabilization and modest price increases.
* Domestic Market: The average price for domestic TOPCon 183N cells in Q1 2026 was CNY 0.42/W, representing a sequential increase of CNY 0.10/W from Q4 2025. This rebound reflects a tightening supply-demand balance as older, less efficient产能 (capacity) exits the market and demand for high-efficiency modules remains robust.
* International Market: Export prices have demonstrated even stronger momentum. According to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) data, the FOB China port price for Topcon 183N cells rose from USD 0.045-0.052/W in early January to USD 0.055-0.064/W by early March. This upward trend is driven by heightened global energy security concerns and policy support for renewable energy in key import regions.

B. Geopolitical Tailwinds and Demand Surge
The external macro environment has unexpectedly favored renewable energy exports. The escalation of geopolitical tensions, specifically referenced as the "US-Iran conflict" in the report context, has triggered volatility in traditional energy markets.
* Energy Price Shock: European TTF natural gas prices spiked, and crude oil prices reached five-year highs. This volatility has accelerated the economic case for renewable energy adoption in Europe and other import-dependent regions, leading to a surge in demand for solar products.
* Junda’s Competitive Advantage: In 2025, Junda’s overseas revenue accounted for 51% of total sales. The company holds leading market shares in high-growth regions such as India, Turkey, and Europe. In Q1 2026, robust European demand ensured that the overseas revenue proportion remained elevated. This geographic diversification acts as a hedge against domestic price wars and allows Junda to capture higher margins associated with international sales.

C. Future Capacity Expansion in Turkey
Looking ahead, the company’s cooperative production capacity in Turkey is a key catalyst. This facility is strategically positioned to serve high-margin overseas markets, bypassing potential trade barriers and reducing logistics costs for European customers. We anticipate this capacity will further enhance earnings elasticity in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.

3. New Business Segment: The Aerospace Energy Closed-Loop

Perhaps the most transformative aspect of Junda’s current strategy is its aggressive entry into the commercial aerospace sector, specifically focusing on space-based energy solutions. The company is building a vertically integrated chain: "Battery Materials → Energy Systems → Whole Satellite Platform."

A. Strategic Acquisition: Xuntian Qianhe
In Q1 2026, Junda solidified its position in the space sector by gaining control of Xuntian Qianhe, a scarce and highly valuable commercial satellite general contractor (overall design and integration entity).
* Scarcity Value: Few private entities in China possess the comprehensive capability to design, integrate, and manufacture complete satellite systems across multiple weight classes (20-2000kg). Xuntian Qianhe fills this niche, covering communication, computing, remote sensing, and meteorological satellites.
* Technical Moat: The subsidiary boasts top-tier capabilities in complex satellite system design and integration. Key technical specifications include:
* Power Supply: Ultra-high power supply capability of 20KW per satellite, essential for energy-intensive payloads and electric propulsion.
* Computing Power: Onboard computing capacity of 32 POPS @ int8, enabling advanced edge AI processing for remote sensing and autonomous operations.
* Data Transmission: Data transmission rates exceeding 2.4 Gbps, with 100 Gbps laser communication capabilities. This high-bandwidth link is critical for real-time data downlink and inter-satellite links (ISL) in mega-constellations.

B. Space Solar Photovoltaic (SSPV) Development
Leveraging its core competency in PV cells, Junda is advancing the development of space-grade solar technologies through its subsidiary, Jietai Aerospace.
* Technology Focus: The company is accelerating R&D and pilot line construction for CPI (Coverglass Interconnect) films and Perovskite-Crystalline Silicon Tandem cells.
* Strategic Synergy: Perovskite-silicon tandem cells offer higher specific power (W/kg) and better radiation resistance compared to traditional silicon cells, making them ideal for space applications. By integrating its terrestrial PV manufacturing expertise with Xuntian Qianhe’s satellite integration platform, Junda creates a unique feedback loop: it can test and iterate space-grade PV technologies on its own satellite platforms, accelerating commercialization.
* Market Positioning: This move positions Junda not just as a component supplier, but as a systemic solution provider for the emerging "Space Infrastructure" market. As global constellations expand, the demand for high-efficiency, lightweight, and durable power systems will grow exponentially. Junda’s closed-loop model allows it to capture value at multiple stages of the supply chain.

4. Financial Forecast and Valuation Analysis

Based on the Q1 performance and the strengthening fundamentals in both core and new businesses, we have refined our earnings forecasts for 2026-2028.

Revenue and Profit Projections:

Metric (CNY Million) 2024 Actual 2025 Actual 2026E 2027E 2028E
Total Revenue 9,952 7,627 12,124 14,510 14,765
YoY Growth % -46.66% -23.36% 58.95% 19.68% 1.76%
Net Profit (Attrib.) -591 -1,416 791 1,082 1,415
YoY Growth % -139.51% N/A 155.85% 36.88% 30.71%
EPS (Diluted) -2.58 -4.84 2.54 3.48 4.55
Gross Margin % 0.7% N/A 8.0% 11.1% 14.1%
Net Margin % N/A N/A 6.5% 7.5% 9.6%

Source: Company Reports, Guojin Securities Institute Estimates

Analysis of Forecasts:
* 2026 Recovery Year: We project a sharp revenue rebound of ~59% in 2026, driven by the full-year contribution of higher-priced overseas sales and the normalization of domestic demand. Net profit is expected to swing to a positive CNY 791 million, reflecting the margin expansion discussed earlier.
* 2027-2028 Growth Phase: Revenue growth moderates to ~20% in 2027 and stabilizes in 2028, but profit growth outpaces revenue due to operating leverage and the increasing contribution of higher-margin aerospace businesses. By 2028, we expect net margins to approach 10%, a significant improvement from historical lows.
* Cash Flow Improvement: Operating cash flow is projected to turn strongly positive, reaching CNY 1.158 billion in 2026 and growing to CNY 2.393 billion by 2028. This indicates high earnings quality and sufficient internal funding for future R&D and capacity expansion without excessive reliance on external financing.

Valuation Metrics:

Valuation Metric 2024 Actual 2025 Actual 2026E 2027E 2028E
P/E Ratio -19.81 -11.29 29.73 21.72 16.62
P/B Ratio 3.01 4.37 5.28 4.42 3.70
ROE (Diluted) -15.21% -38.68% 17.77% 20.36% 22.26%

Note: P/E and P/B calculated based on current share price of CNY 72.92.

  • P/E Compression: While the 2026E P/E of ~30x may appear elevated compared to traditional manufacturing peers, it is justified by the high growth rate (155% profit growth) and the strategic re-rating associated with the aerospace segment. By 2027 and 2028, the P/E compresses to ~22x and ~17x respectively, aligning with or discounting to high-growth tech-enabled manufacturing peers.
  • ROE Rebound: The return on equity is forecast to rebound from negative territory to nearly 18% in 2026 and exceed 22% by 2028. This demonstrates efficient capital utilization and validates the effectiveness of the company’s asset-lightening and high-value-add strategies.

Risks / Headwinds

While the outlook is positive, institutional investors must consider the following risks that could impact the investment thesis:

1. Photovoltaic Industry Chain Price Volatility

  • Risk Description: The PV industry remains susceptible to supply-demand imbalances. If new capacity additions outpace demand growth, or if raw material prices (such as polysilicon or silver paste) fluctuate wildly, gross margins could be compressed.
  • Impact: A decline in TOPCon cell prices below CNY 0.40/W would erode the margin buffer built in Q1 2026.
  • Mitigation: Junda’s high overseas exposure and cost leadership through technological iteration provide some insulation. However, severe global oversupply remains a systemic risk.

2. Intensifying Industry Competition

  • Risk Description: The transition to N-type TOPCon has led to fierce competition among major manufacturers. Competitors may engage in price wars to gain market share, potentially triggering a race to the bottom.
  • Impact: Reduced pricing power and potential inventory write-downs.
  • Mitigation: Junda’s focus on high-efficiency products and differentiated overseas markets helps avoid the brunt of domestic commoditization.

3. Overseas Trade and Geopolitical Risks

  • Risk Description: Given that over 50% of revenue comes from overseas, Junda is exposed to trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions. Specific risks include:
    • Tariffs: Potential new tariffs by the US, EU, or India on Chinese solar products.
    • Geopolitical Instability: The report mentions the "US-Iran war" impacting energy prices. Escalation in such conflicts could disrupt supply chains, shipping routes, or payment settlements.
    • Regulatory Changes: Changes in local content requirements or subsidy schemes in key markets like Europe and India.
  • Impact: Sudden loss of market access or margin erosion due to tariff pass-through limitations.
  • Mitigation: The Turkey production base serves as a strategic hedge against trade barriers in Europe. Diversification across multiple regions (India, Turkey, Europe) reduces reliance on any single market.

4. Commercial Aerospace Business Execution Risk

  • Risk Description: The space energy business is in its early stages. Risks include:
    • Technological Hurdles: Delays in the R&D or commercialization of perovskite-silicon tandem cells for space use.
    • Integration Challenges: Difficulties in integrating Xuntian Qianhe’s operations or achieving expected synergies.
    • Market Adoption: Slower-than-expected adoption of space-based solar solutions or delays in government/commercial satellite launches.
  • Impact: Failure to realize the projected high-margin revenue from the aerospace segment, leading to a valuation de-rating.
  • Mitigation: The company is taking a phased approach, starting with pilot lines and leveraging existing satellite contracts. The scarcity of Xuntian Qianhe’s capabilities provides a strong competitive moat, but execution risk remains non-zero.

5. Financial Leverage and Interest Rate Risk

  • Risk Description: Although the debt-to-asset ratio has improved to 75%, it remains relatively high. Rising interest rates or tighter credit conditions could increase financial expenses.
  • Impact: Higher interest costs could eat into net profits, especially if operating income growth slows.
  • Mitigation: The projected strong operating cash flows should allow for gradual deleveraging. Management’s focus on working capital efficiency is critical.

Rating / Sector Outlook

Sector Outlook: Photovoltaics & Aerospace

Photovoltaics: From Survival to Selection
The global PV sector is emerging from a period of intense consolidation. The "clearing out" of inefficient capacity in 2024-2025 has set the stage for a healthier market structure in 2026.
* Supply Side: Leading manufacturers with technological advantages (N-type TOPCon, HJT) and cost leadership are gaining market share. Smaller, less efficient players are exiting.
* Demand Side: Global demand remains robust, driven by energy security concerns and climate goals. The geopolitical instability in traditional energy markets (oil/gas) is accelerating the ROI for solar projects, particularly in Europe and emerging markets.
* Outlook: We expect the sector to remain bifurcated. Companies with strong overseas channels and technological moats will enjoy premium valuations, while pure-play domestic manufacturers may face continued margin pressure. Junda falls firmly into the former category.

Commercial Aerospace: The Next Frontier
The commercial space industry is transitioning from a niche government-dominated sector to a vibrant commercial ecosystem.
* Drivers: The proliferation of low-earth orbit (LEO) constellations for communication and earth observation is driving demand for standardized, cost-effective satellite platforms.
* Space Energy: As satellites become more powerful (AI on edge, high-throughput communications), the demand for high-efficiency, lightweight power systems is critical. Space-based solar power (SBSP) is gaining traction as a long-term strategic goal for major economies.
* Outlook: This sector offers high growth potential and high barriers to entry. Companies that can integrate hardware (satellites) with specialized components (high-efficiency solar cells) are well-positioned to capture significant value. Junda’s entry via acquisition and internal R&D places it at the forefront of this trend in China.

Consensus Rating Analysis

Market sentiment towards Junda Shares has shifted positively in recent months, reflecting the improving fundamentals.

Timeframe Buy Overweight Neutral Underweight Avg Score*
1 Week 2 0 0 0 1.00
1 Month 5 3 0 0 1.38
2 Months 8 6 0 0 1.43
3 Months 12 9 0 0 1.43
6 Months 25 0 0 0 1.00

*Score Explanation: 1=Buy, 2=Overweight, 3=Neutral, 4=Underweight. Lower score indicates more bullish consensus.

The data shows a consistent "Buy" bias among analysts, with the average score hovering around 1.4, indicating strong conviction in the company’s turnaround story. The absence of "Neutral" or "Underweight" ratings in the recent 6-month window suggests that skeptics have either exited or been converted by the recent performance beats.


Investment View

Core Investment Logic: The "Dual-Engine" Growth Model

Junda Shares presents a compelling investment opportunity based on a Dual-Engine Growth Model:
1. Engine 1: Cyclical Recovery in Core PV Business. The company has successfully navigated the bottom of the PV cycle. Through asset impairment cleanup, cost reduction, and strategic focus on high-margin overseas markets, it has restored profitability. The Q1 2026 results confirm that the company can generate positive earnings even in a challenging environment, providing a solid floor for valuation.
2. Engine 2: Secular Growth in Aerospace Energy. The acquisition of Xuntian Qianhe and the development of space-grade PV technologies open up a new, high-growth, high-margin revenue stream. This is not merely a diversification play; it is a vertical integration strategy that leverages Junda’s core competencies in materials science and manufacturing to solve critical problems in the space industry (power and data transmission). This segment provides the "alpha" or upside optionality that distinguishes Junda from traditional PV manufacturers.

Why Buy Now?

  1. Inflection Point Confirmation: Q1 2026 results prove that the turnaround is real, not just theoretical. The beat on earnings and the significant margin expansion de-risk the near-term outlook.
  2. Valuation Attractiveness: Despite the recent price appreciation, the forward P/E of ~30x for 2026 is reasonable given the 155% expected profit growth. As the company delivers on its 2027 and 2028 forecasts, the P/E will compress to more attractive levels (~22x and ~17x), offering multiple expansion potential if the market begins to value the aerospace segment separately.
  3. Strategic Moat: The combination of overseas manufacturing capacity (Turkey) and scarce aerospace integration capabilities (Xuntian Qianhe) creates a defensive moat against competition. Few competitors can match this breadth of capability.
  4. Macro Tailwinds: Geopolitical instability and high fossil fuel prices are structural tailwinds for renewable energy and energy independence technologies, benefiting both Junda’s core and new businesses.

Investment Strategy

  • For Long-Term Investors: Junda Shares offers a rare combination of cyclical recovery and secular growth. We recommend accumulating positions on any short-term volatility, viewing the stock as a core holding in a diversified renewable energy/tech portfolio. The long-term target is driven by the successful commercialization of the space energy business.
  • For Tactical Traders: The immediate catalyst is the continued improvement in quarterly earnings and any announcements regarding the Turkey capacity ramp-up or new satellite contracts for Xuntian Qianhe. Positive news flow in these areas could drive short-term price appreciation.

Conclusion

Junda Shares has executed a remarkable turnaround, transforming from a loss-making entity burdened by asset impairments to a profitable, strategically positioned leader in both terrestrial and space-based energy solutions. The Q1 2026 results are a testament to management’s ability to navigate complex market dynamics and execute on strategic initiatives.

With a clean balance sheet, recovering core margins, and a pioneering position in the nascent space energy economy, Junda is well-equipped to deliver superior shareholder returns in the coming years. We maintain our BUY rating, confident that the market has yet to fully price in the long-term value of its aerospace energy closed-loop.


Appendix: Detailed Financial Analysis

1. Income Statement Analysis (Trends & Drivers)

Revenue Growth Trajectory:
* 2023-2025 Decline: Revenue fell from CNY 18.6 billion in 2023 to CNY 7.6 billion in 2025. This was driven by the collapse in PV module prices and the company’s strategic decision to shed low-margin business lines.
* 2026-2028 Recovery: We project revenue to rebound to CNY 12.1 billion in 2026 (+59% YoY). This growth is not purely volume-driven but is significantly supported by higher average selling prices (ASPs) in overseas markets and the inclusion of higher-value aerospace services.
* Stabilization: By 2028, revenue stabilizes around CNY 14.7 billion. The slower growth rate in 2028 (1.76%) reflects a maturing core PV business, with growth increasingly driven by the higher-margin aerospace segment rather than sheer volume.

Cost Structure & Margins:
* Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): As a percentage of revenue, COGS is projected to decrease from 101.3% in 2025 (indicating gross losses) to 92.0% in 2026, 88.9% in 2027, and 85.9% in 2028. This improvement is driven by:
1. Higher ASPs.
2. Economies of scale in the Turkey plant.
3. Technological improvements in cell efficiency (lowering cost per watt).
* Operating Expenses:
* Selling Expenses: Remain stable at ~0.4% of revenue, indicating efficient sales channels.
* Administrative Expenses: Decrease from 4.1% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2026-2028, reflecting better operational efficiency and cost control post-restructuring.
* R&D Expenses: Maintain a steady ~1.2% of revenue. This is crucial for sustaining technological leadership in both TOPCon and space PV technologies. Absolute R&D spend increases slightly in line with revenue growth, ensuring innovation pipeline continuity.

Profitability Metrics:
* EBIT Margin: Improves from negative in 2025 to 3.4% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027, and 9.5% in 2028. This operating leverage is a key driver of shareholder value.
* Net Margin: Follows a similar trajectory, reaching 9.6% by 2028. This level of profitability is sustainable given the company’s differentiated product mix and market positioning.

2. Cash Flow Statement Analysis

Operating Cash Flow (OCF):
* Turnaround: OCF swung from negative CNY 486 million in 2025 to positive CNY 1.158 billion in 2026E. This is a critical indicator of financial health.
* Drivers: The improvement is driven by:
1. Return to profitability (Net Income +CNY 791 million).
2. Working capital management: Reduction in inventory days (from 28.1 in 2025 to 20.0 in 2026E) and faster collection of receivables (AR days dropping from 2.3 to 15.0 - note: the 2.3 days in 2025 seems anomalously low, possibly due to accounting changes or specific contract terms; the 15.0 days in 2026E is more normalized for the industry).
3. Non-cash add-backs: Depreciation and amortization continue to provide a cash buffer.

Investing Cash Flow:
* CapEx Discipline: Capital expenditures are projected to remain moderate (CNY 270 million in 2026E), focusing on high-return projects like the Turkey plant and aerospace R&D pilot lines. This disciplined approach prevents over-leverage.
* Investments: Minor outflows for strategic investments, supporting the aerospace ecosystem.

Financing Cash Flow:
* Debt Repayment: Net financing cash flow is negative in 2026E (-CNY 437 million), indicating net debt repayment. This aligns with the goal of reducing the debt-to-asset ratio.
* Future Flexibility: In 2027-2028, financing cash flow turns positive as the company may raise debt for strategic expansions, but this is backed by strong operating cash flows.

3. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Quality:
* Current Assets: Increase from CNY 7.4 billion in 2025 to CNY 13.3 billion in 2028. This growth is primarily in Cash & Equivalents (from CNY 4.4 billion to CNY 9.9 billion), providing a strong liquidity buffer.
* Fixed Assets: Decline from CNY 7.5 billion in 2025 to CNY 6.3 billion in 2028. This reflects the depreciation of older assets and a shift towards a more asset-light model in certain segments, or simply efficient utilization of existing capacity.

Liabilities & Equity:
* Debt Structure: Short-term borrowings are managed carefully, decreasing from CNY 3.2 billion in 2025 to CNY 2.3 billion in 2026E, before rising slightly in later years to fund working capital. Long-term debt remains stable at ~CNY 2.0 billion.
* Shareholder Equity: Recovers from CNY 3.66 billion in 2025 to CNY 6.36 billion in 2028, driven by retained earnings from profitable operations. This strengthens the company’s creditworthiness and ability to withstand shocks.

Key Ratios:
* Current Ratio: Improves significantly as current assets grow faster than current liabilities, enhancing short-term solvency.
* Interest Coverage: EBIT interest coverage ratio jumps from -2.5x in 2025 to 11.0x in 2026E, indicating a comfortable ability to service debt obligations.

4. Sensitivity Analysis

To assess the robustness of our investment thesis, we conducted a sensitivity analysis on key variables:

A. Sensitivity to TOPCon Cell Prices:
* Base Case: Avg Price CNY 0.42/W. Net Profit 2026E: CNY 791 million.
* Bear Case: Price drops 10% to CNY 0.38/W. Assuming fixed costs remain constant, gross margin could compress by ~3-4 ppt. Net Profit could fall to ~CNY 500-600 million. Even in this scenario, the company remains profitable, demonstrating resilience.
* Bull Case: Price rises 10% to CNY 0.46/W. Gross margin expands further. Net Profit could exceed CNY 1.0 billion in 2026.

B. Sensitivity to Aerospace Business Ramp-up:
* Base Case: Aerospace contributes 5% of revenue by 2028, with 20% gross margin.
* Bear Case: Delays in certification or launch schedules. Aerospace contributes <2% of revenue by 2028. Impact: Valuation multiple may contract as the "growth story" is delayed. However, core PV business still supports current valuation.
* Bull Case: Rapid adoption of space solar tech. Aerospace contributes 10%+ of revenue by 2028 with 30%+ gross margin. Impact: Significant upside to earnings and multiple expansion. P/E could re-rate to 35-40x.

C. Sensitivity to Exchange Rates:
* Given the high overseas revenue share, a 5% appreciation of the USD/CNY rate would boost reported revenue and profits by ~2-3%. Conversely, a depreciation would have a negative impact. Hedging strategies are assumed to mitigate extreme volatility.


Final Remarks for Institutional Investors

Junda Shares represents a sophisticated investment case that goes beyond simple cyclical betting. It is a story of strategic transformation. Management has used the downturn in the PV industry to cleanse the balance sheet, optimize costs, and pivot towards higher-value markets. The acquisition of Xuntian Qianhe is not a distraction; it is a logical extension of the company’s core competencies into a adjacent, high-growth frontier.

For institutional portfolios, Junda offers:
1. Beta: Exposure to the global renewable energy transition.
2. Alpha: Unique exposure to the commercial space economy through a vertically integrated model.
3. Safety Margin: A proven track record of navigating industry cycles and a now-profitable core business.

We advise investors to monitor the following key indicators in the coming quarters:
1. Q2/Q3 2026 Gross Margins: Confirmation that the 13.54% margin in Q1 is sustainable.
2. Turkey Plant Utilization: Progress reports on the ramp-up of the Turkey facility.
3. Xuntian Qianhe Contract Wins: Announcement of new satellite orders or partnerships, particularly those involving Junda’s space PV technology.
4. Debt Reduction: Continued progress in lowering the debt-to-asset ratio below 70%.

In conclusion, Junda Shares is well-positioned to outperform the broader market in the 2026-2028 period. We reiterate our BUY rating with high conviction.


(Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.)